Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Contents
Demand
Supply position- number of suppliers, excess
supply or shortage
Distribution channel
Competitors strengths/market share/ goodwill
Government support/ vigilance
Situational
Analysis and
Specification
of Objectives
Demand
Forecasting
Characterisation
of the Market
Conduct of
Market Survey
Market
Planning
Situational Analysis
To get a feel of the relationship between the product and
its market.
While
secondary
information
is available
economically and readily (provided the market
analyst is able to locate it), its reliability, accuracy,
and relevance for the purpose under consideration
must be carefully examined.
Factors to be considered
Who? - gathered the information? What was the objective?
When? the information gathered? Was the period representative
to serve our objective?
Have the terms in the study been carefully and unambiguously
defined?
What was the target population
Market Survey
Qualitative Methods
Jury of experts
DELPHI
Qualitative Methods
These methods rely essentially on the judgment of experts
to translate qualitative information into quantitative
estimates.
Qualitative methods
Jury of experts
Delphi
Pros
It is an expeditious/quick method.
Cons
The biases cannot be unearthed easily
Its reliability is questionable
Delphi Method
This method is used for eliciting the opinions of a group of experts with
the help of a mail survey. The steps involved in this method are :
1.
2.
3.
Pros
It is intelligible to users
It seems to be more accurate and less expensive than the
traditional face-to-face group meetings
Cons
There are some question marks:
What is the value of the expert opinion?
What is the contribution of additional rounds and feedback to
accuracy?
Yt = a + bT
Yt=Forecasted demand
a=intercept; b=slope
Years
Demand of heaters(Y) X
2000
600
2001
825
2002
970
2003
1210
2004
1440
2005
1790
2006
2070
Total
8905
Least square
method
Y=Na+bX
XY= aX+ BX^2
XY
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
X^2
-1800
-1650
-970
0
1440
3580
6210
6810
243.21
1,272.14
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
28
Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0.835
0.937
0.400
0.08
1,000 + 1,020
x
1,020 1,000
= 4.81
55 + 50
600 + 800
x
600 800
= - 0.37
9,000 +10,000
Consumption
Coefficient *
Projected Output
in year X
Alpha
2.0
10,000
20,000
Beta
1.2
15,000
18,000
Kappa
0.8
20,000
16,000
Gamma
0.5
30,000
15,000
Total
69,000
x 02 = 30,000
1,000,000
Econometric Method
the
GNPt = Gt + It + Ct
It = a0 + a1 GNPt
Ct = b0 + b1 GNP1
where GNPt = gross national product for year t
Gt = governmental purchases for year t
It = gross investment for year t
Ct = consumption for year t
Assignment
Years
Sales
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2000
2200
2100
2300
2500
3200
3600
4000
3900
4000
4200
4300
4900
5300
To do
moving
average
Improving Forecasts
You can improve forecasts by following some simple
guidelines:
Check assumptions
Stress fundamentals
Beware of history
Stay flexible
Methods of forecasting
Environmental change
Market Planning
A marketing plan usually has the following components:
Objectives
Marketing strategy
Action programme