Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Marine
Trends
2030
Global
Marine
Trends
2030
Contents
Foreword 03
Executive summary
05
08
Global drivers
12
Population 12
Economy 20
Resources 34
Environment 42
Commercial sector
48
Naval sector
94
112
Disruptive forces
126
Postscript 140
The GMT2030 Team
141
Glossary 142
Page 03
Foreword
Welcome to Global Marine Trends 2030
Richard Sadler
Chief Executive Officer
Lloyds Register Group Limited
Page 04
Page 05
Executive summary
We started the twenty-first century with great optimism.
The world is flat and the end of history proclaimed
by great thinkers such as Friedman and Fukuyama. They
believe historical and geographical divisions are becoming
increasingly irrelevant and free market capitalism of
the West and its lifestyle may signal the end point of
humanitys sociocultural evolution. And calamity unfolds
before our very eyes: the financial crisis, the failure of the
Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, the pace of
WTO negotiations and the threat of pandemic.
With astonishing events unfolding in the financial world
in 2008 and in the Arab world in the early part of 2011,
giant forces are at play that seem beyond the control of
even leaders of powerful countries, let alone business
executives who traditionally see their abilities to shape
the big picture future limited. They are right in that there
is little they can do in affecting these giant forces such as
technology, demographics or the movement of capital and
manufacturing around the world seeking best investment
returns. But they do have a choice: they can either
react passively to such forces or anticipate them to their
advantage. Either way they ignore these forces at their peril.
The opening up of
China in 1978 and
India in 1990 and
their eventual accessions
to the WTO have had an
enormous impact to the
world, as they together
consist of nearly 40% of
humanity.
Page 06
In the Competing Nations scenario, dogmatic approaches, At the very least we hope it will generate debate and
regulatory fragmentation, national preference and conflicts
discussions about what the future might hold for us all.
over values and religion gives insiders an advantage and put a
brake on globalisation. Gate communities (e.g. trade blocks), The GMT 2030 Project Team
Page 07
Page 08
Using scenarios
The Global Marine Trends 2030 project uses a scenario
planning methodology that is primarily qualitative in
nature.
5
3
Page 09
Forecasting
Path
Present
Future
Scenario thinking
Global Commons
Status Quo
Competing Nations
Disruptive events
Multiple paths
Current
realities
Possible
futures
Multiple paths
Multiple paths
Multiple futures that challenge assumptions
Multiple developments
Uncertainty is explicit
Disruptive events
Page 10
Page 11
Scenario
Characteristics
Impact
Status Quo
Global Commons
Competing Nations
Dogmatic approaches
Regulatory fragmentation
National preference, conflicts over values and religion
give insiders an advantage
A brake on globalisation
Rise in protectionism, encouraging local production
and consumption
Gate communities
Patronage and national standards exacerbate fragmentation
Self-interest and zero-sum games
Reduction in demand
Disappearance of a level playing field
Competing demands from national interests
make life complicated
Shipping community will suffer with the roll-back
of globalisation
Local presence for shipping is necessary
Naval power increases
Page 12
Global drivers
Population
Page 13
Page 14
Demographics
Population only
Population only
in 2010
in 2010
2010
2010
Russia
142,958
2%
EU
500,441
7%
USA
310,384
5%
Population (thousands)
% of world population
Brazil
194,946
3%
Pakistan
173,593
3%
Nigeria
158,423
2%
China
1,341,335
19%
India
1,224,614
18%
Bangladesh
148,692
2%
Japan
126,536
2%
Indonesia
239,871
3%
2030
India becomes
Number 1
in total population
Page 15
2030
Russia
136,429
2%
EU
515,849
6%
Pakistan
234,432
3%
Nigeria
257,815
3%
China
1,393,076
17%
India
1,523,482
18%
Bangladesh
181,863
2%
USA
361,680
4%
Mexico
135,398
2%
Indonesia
279,659
3%
Brazil
220,492
3%
Page 16
53
Double challenge
An ageing population
As a society becomes richer, couples tend to raise fewer
children and people tend to live longer. This has led to
an ageing population, escalating social pressure on the
work force (eg. via pensions and healthcare) and impeding
economic growth.
Japans population is currently the oldest in the world.
38% of its population will be over 65 years old in 2030,
meaning that 53 (from 35 in 2010) Japanese aged over 65
need to be supported by 100 Japanese aged between 15
and 64 years old. Germany and Italy are in similar situations.
Meanwhile, countries including China and Russia are also
ageing. In 2030, the aged dependency ratio of China will
be at a similar level to that of Spain today. India, on the
other hand, will enjoy being as young as China in the
2000s by 2030. A younger population is a favourable
demographic asset for a countrys development, assuming
India is able to provide education and jobs.
Fig. 7 Aged dependency ratio: people over 65 per 100 people aged between 15 and 64 (%)
Source: UN / LR
2010
2030
Japan
India
Germany
Brazil
Italy
China
Russia
USA
UK
Spain
France
40
20
10
Canada
Singapore
South Korea
Double challenge
Declining population
Human beings global population expansion is regarded
to be exceeding the Earths carrying capacity. A few
countries, led by Japan, Germany, and Russia, will confront
an unprecedented shrinking population. This could be
good news for some overcrowded regions and could
also contradict a countrys social and political preference
in population level. For instance, experts predict that
without sufficient population density, Russia with such a
massive territory could become politically unstable and no
longer be viable as a nation. In order to solve this issue,
Russia has begun taking migrants from Central Asia and
the Caucasus area to prop up its declining population.
However, the increasing immigration could contribute to
social instability such as ethnic conflict. Chinas population
will reach its peak around 2030 and will start to decline
unless its one child policy is relaxed or abandoned.
Fig. 8 Population change between 2010 and 2030 (%)
Source: UN/LR
China
-5
Japan
Russia
Germany
Page 17
Page 18
Urbanisation
Urbanisation is inevitable in the modern world. People
leave rural areas for cities in search of better job
opportunities. An expansion of urban living is taking
place in every continent.
However, the majority of people in some of the most
populous countries still live in rural areas. South Asia
was, in 2010, the most rural region, with 71.9% in
Bangladesh, 70.0% in India, and 64.1% in Pakistan.
The largest percentage growth in urbanisation will take
place in China, Southeast Asian countries, Bangladesh,
Nigeria and Turkey over the next 20 years.
City - Population
Most major cities are usually sea ports or inland ports, with
easy access to waterborne transport. For the next 20 years,
the earths urban landscape is going to continue shifting
towards the emerging nations. Most of the populous cities
are located in Asia, Latin America and Africa.
tina
Jap
a
pt
Philip
ali
a
Ne
a
Ze
Vietnam
Egy
tan
India
r
ma
an
My
nd
ila
a
Th
kis
nce
Fra
40
Nigeria
South
Korea
20
China
USA
20
di A
40
Tokyo
Delhi
Mumbai
So Paulo
Mexico City
New York
Shanghai
ia
Malays
ico
key
ex
M
in
Spa
any
Germ
Russia
100
10
UK
60
80
da
Kolkata
Ita
na
Dhaka
ly
Ca
Karachi
rabi
Beijing
a
fric
Tur
th
Sau
Buenos Aires
sia
ne
Indo
u
So
30
Brazi
20
pines
lan
Au
60
Pa
2030
2030
40
str
80
Source: UN / LR
Arge
n
100
2030
2010
Source: UN / LR
Ira
Singapore
Page 19
Page 20
Global drivers
Economy
Page 21
Page 22
Economy
China, India and Brazil will sit in the top 5 list in terms of
GDP ranking. China alone will contribute about 20% of the
global GDP. The traditional developed countries, such as
USA, Japan and Western European Countries, will gradually
lose their economic dominance in the next two decades.
Fig. 11 Global economic focus moves East (relative real GDP size in $2010)
Source: IMF / LR
2010
Brazil
China*
France
Germany
India
Japan
Russia
UK
USA
* The GDP calculation of China excludes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
Page 23
20%
Chinas contribution
to world GDP in 2030
Page 24
3x
Source: IMF / LR
Global Commons
Status Quo
Competing Nations
200
150
100
50
1990
2010
2030
0
China
USA
India
Page 25
Competing Nations
Status Quo
Global Commons
Source: IMF / LR
2010
0
USA
China
Japan
Germany
France
UK
Brazil
India
Russia
Indonesia
2030
5
10
2010
15
20
25
2030
5
10
2010
15
20
25
30
35
40
2030
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Page 26
China, Vietnam
India, Indonesia
75
The worlds GDP per capita will rise faster than in the last
20 years. The top per capita GDP ranks will still be filled
with highly urbanised developed nations. However, the
largest percentage growth in per capita GDP will take
place in the medium or low-income countries, particularly
China, India, Vietnam and Indonesia. The increased income
will boost their appetite for food, energy, infrastructures
and all sorts of consumer goods, expanding demands for
trade and shipping activities.
USA
Australia
na
da
60
Ca
45
an
Jap
30
Vietn
di
Indo
nesi
Germany
frica
ico
UK
15
So
Ch
ile
key
Tur
uth
Sau
30
Brazil
nt
ina
ex
Russia
A
outh
15
China
S
ce
Fran
am
a
eri
Nig
In
ge
2010
Source: IMF / LR
Ar
ia
60
rab
di A
45
Source: IMF / LR
2010
2030 Status Quo
35,000
Ko
rea
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
75
0
Brazil
Russia
China
India
Page 27
Source: ADB / LR
2008
2030
OECD
Developing Asia
20
15
10
5
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
285
Page 28
Trade expansion
Fig. 17 Major seaborne trade routes in 2010 and 2030 Status Quo (million tonnes)
2010
Source: MSI / LR
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Page 29
Fig. 18 Major seaborne trade routes and volumes in 2030 Status Quo (million tonnes)
Source: MSI / LR
Export
10
50
250
Africa
North America
Import
Africa
North America
Other Asia
Other Asia
South Asia
South Asia
500
CIS
Far East
EU
Latin America
1500
Middle East
MESA
Oceania
CIS
Far East
EU
Latin America
Middle East
MESA
Oceania
Page 30
Page 31
Source: LR
EU (European Union)
Consists of 27 member states.
EAEC (Eurasian Economic Community)
Consists of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Uzbekistan and Russia.
DR-CAFTA (Dominican Republic Central America Free Trade Agreement) Consists of
Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala,
Honduras and Nicaragua.
EAEC
EU
NAFTA
GAFTA
CSME
DR-CAFTA
AU
UNASUR
SAFTA
ASEAN,
ASEAN +3
AANZFTA
Page 32
Cities rule
Cities economic power has been immense since
industrialisation, and served as magnet for talent, capital
and trade. Bulk materials are needed for building modern
infrastructure and facilities. Urbanisation also brings
lifestyle and consumption pattern changes.
New York and Tokyo will still dominate the worlds city
GDP output in 2030. Other American, Japanese and
European cities will be overtaken by China and Latin
Americas fast growing cities in the next two decades.
Port cities are special
Fig. 20 Major cities real GDP in 2010 and 2030 Status Quo (million $2010)
Source: OECD / UN / NS / LR
2010
New York
Tokyo
Shanghai
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Page 33
Competing Nations
Status Quo
Global Commons
Shanghai will jump from the 19th to the 3rd in the worlds
city economic ranking. Four Chinese cities, Beijing, Tianjin,
Shenzhen and Guangzhou, will be the newcomers in the
top 20 list. Outside the top 20 list, Delhi could be as big as
Miami in 2030.
Fig. 21 The GDP ranking in different cities in 2010 and 2030 based on three scenarios (top 20 cities ranked in real GDP in $2010)
2010
2030
2010
2030
2010
2030
Tokyo
New York
Tokyo
New York
Tokyo
New York
New York
London
Paris
LA
Seoul
Chicago
Osaka/Kobe
Washington DC
Houston
Dallas
Tokyo
LA
London
Paris
Shanghai
Beijing
Chicago
Seoul
Washington DC
Osaka/Kobe
New York
London
Paris
LA
Seoul
Chicago
Osaka/Kobe
Washington DC
Houston
Dallas
Philadelphia
Shenzhen
Philadelphia
San Francisco
So Paulo
San Francisco
Boston
Tianjin
Boston
Tokyo
Shanghai
LA
London
Beijing
Paris
Tianjin
Seoul
Shenzhen
Chicago
Guangzhou
Washington DC
Osaka/Kobe
New York
London
Paris
LA
Seoul
Chicago
Osaka/Kobe
Washington DC
Houston
Dallas
Philadelphia
San Francisco
Boston
Moscow
Houston
Moscow
Moscow
Moscow
Atlanta
Moscow
Atlanta
So Paulo
Atlanta
Tokyo
Shanghai
Beijing
LA
London
Tianjin
Paris
Shenzhen
Seoul
Guangzhou
Chicago
Moscow
Mexico City
Washington DC
Osaka/Kobe
Miami
Mexico City
Miami
So Paulo
San Francisco
So Paulo
Philadelphia
So Paulo
Delhi
Shanghai
Dallas
Shanghai
Houston
Shanghai
Chongqing
Miami
Mexico City
Philadelphia
Boston
Mexico City
San Francisco
Mexico City
So Paulo
Houston
Page 34
Global drivers
Resources
Page 35
Page 36
Resources demand
40%
x3
Oil consumption
6,584
6,114
5,608
4,410
Source: MSI / LR
Ru
ss
ia
pa
n
Ja
il
Br
az
In
do
n
In
di
a
A
US
Ch
in
es
ia
2010
2030 Competing Nations
2030 Status Quo
2030 Global Commons
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Page 38
Source: EIA / LR
2010
2030 Competing Nations
2030 Status Quo
2030 Global Commons
pa
n
So
u
Ko th
re
a
ne
s
Ja
In
do
a
In
di
ia
Ru
ss
na
Ch
i
US
A
ia
2,727
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
World Natural
Gas Consumption
Ch
China and India will be the two giants in the worlds coal
consumption. Around 60% of coal consumption will come
from China in 2030. Coal will continue to dominate Indias
energy outlook in the next 20 years. As India's economy
modernises, India's coal consumption will more than
double between 2010 and 2030, surpassing the USA's
consumption and making her the second largest coal
consumer in 2030.
in
Coal consumption
8,440
7,632
6,589
Source: MSI / LR
In
di
a
A
US
In
do
n
es
ia
2010
2030 Competing Nations
2030 Status Quo
2030 Global Commons
3,513
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Page 40
3,854
Steel consumption
3,474
3,016
Source: MSI / LR
ica
2010
2030 Competing Nations
2030 Status Quo
2030 Global Commons
800
600
400
200
0
in
a
Ch
La
tin
ia
In
d
Eu
ro
p
Am
er
1,386
5x
Page 41
Page 42
Global drivers
Environment
Page 43
Page 44
70%
Climate Change
Poor will suffer more
In 2030 there will be
people on the planet
8.3 billion
2 Earths
7 Earths
Temperature
Sea levels
Precipitation
Page 45
Fig. 26 Top 20 cities ranked by population exposed to coastal flooding in 2007 and 2070
10,000,000
5,000,000
1,000,000
500,000
Kolkata
India
Mumbai
India
Dhaka
Bangladesh
Guangzhou
China
Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam
Shanghai
China
Bangkok
Thailand
Rangoon
Miami
Hai Phong
Alexandria
Tianjin
Khulna
Ningbo
Myanmar
USA
Vietnam
Egypt
China
Bangladesh
China
Country
City
2007
2070
Country
City
2007
2070
2007
2070
Population
Country
Source: OECD / LR
City
Lagos
Nigeria
Abidjan
Cote DIvoire
New York USA
Chittagong Bangladesh
Tokyo
Japan
Jakarta
Indonesia
Page 46
Climate Change
The melting North offers new opportunities
Page 47
Gas
Oil
Pacific Ocean
USA
Greenland
Atlantic
Ocean
Page 48
Commercial sector
Foreword
World trade relies on ships
and the cargoes they carry,
and the service industries
that support them, as well
as the security provided
by navies.
Without ships and
navigable seas there is no
globalisation. Shipping,
as the enabler of trade, will be shaped by the major
economic and social forces described in this report.
By developing and modelling a future based on the
scenarios chosen in this significant piece of work, the
GMT 2030 team hopes to provide all who are interested
in the future of maritime trade with some useful insights
into where our world might be going - and how the
marine industries will be affected.
As the world faces more uncertainty and the potential
for highly disruptive change, perhaps, more than at any
time in most memories, the report shows that there are
justifiable grounds for optimism about the future of our
maritime activities.
Maritime trade will be needed more than ever if we are to
prosper. This valuable report provides useful insight into
the future of shipping and naval power.
Tom Boardley
Marine Director
Lloyds Register Group Limited
Page 49
Page 50
90%
Page 51
of international trade
is seaborne
63%
Crude Oil
ica
W
or
S
CI
Af
ric
a
Am
No
rth
Am
tin
La
ld
er
ica
er
st
Ea
e
dl
id
50
0
Source: MSI / LR
2010
Status Quo
Global Commons
6,000
4,500
3,000
1,500
0
World
100
Middle East
150
North America
200
Latin America
Source: EIA / LR
Africa
CIS
Page 52
Natural Gas
ist
bi
ld
W
or
Tu
US
rk
iA
en
ra
Q
Sa
ud
ar
at
n
Ira
50
0
Fig. 31 Natural Gas production (million tonnes of oil equivalent)
5,000
Source: IEA / LR
2010
Status Quo
Global Commons
4,000
World
Qatar
1,000
Iran
2,000
Canada
3,000
China
ia
100
ss
150
USA
200
Ru
Source: IEA / LR
an
Russia
Page 53
China
Coal
Source: WEC / LR
50,000
0
Fig. 33 Coal production (million tonnes of oil equivalent)
Source: MSI / LR
2010
Status Quo
Global Commons
World
China
India
2,000
Australia
4,000
North America
8,000
6,000
ne
sia
ta
Ka
za
k
hs
Af
So
ut
a
di
In
st
Ch
Ru
lia
ra
a
in
ia
A
US
100,000
Coal production
The worlds coal production will more than double by
2030. Among all major producers, China will achieve the
largest coal production and production growth. Most
of the worlds coal production is for domestic markets.
Nevertheless, coal is one of the most important bulk
cargoes in international shipping.
do
Sub-bituminous
ric
a
Lignite
In
ss
Coal reserves
Au
Page 54
Page 55
Iron Ore
Fig. 34 Iron Ore reserves (million tonnes)
2,400
Venezuela
18,900
4,500
India
14,000
Russia
7,200
16,000
Source: USGS / LR
17,000
Brazil
China
Source: MSI / LR
2010
Status Quo
Global Commons
World
Europe
1,000
China
2,000
India
3,000
Oceania
4,000
5,000
Latin America
The largest iron ore production will still come from Latin
America and Oceania. India may see the largest iron ore
production growth, between 3 to 5 times, over the next
20 years.
Australia
Source: MSI / LR
2011
2030 Competing Nations
2030 Status Quo
2030 Global Commons
2,000
Ea
e
dl
Source: MSI / LR
2011
2030 Competing Nations
2030 Status Quo
2030 Global Commons
Eu
ro
pe
er
ica
No
rth
Am
Ch
in
a
So
ut
h
As
ia
Ko
re
a
ut
h
So
Ja
p
an
sia
rA
th
e
O
ce
a
Af nia
ric
O a
th
e
La r
tin
Am
er
ica
450
id
500
No
1,000
CI
st
1,500
r
Eu th A
ro m
pe er
ica
La
tin
Am
er
ica
Af
ric
a
Page 56
900
Source: MSI / LR
2010
600
500
The largest increase in seaborne oil trade will come from the
400
Arabian Gulf, Black Sea, and Latin America to China and
other Asia. The rise will be caused by increased transport
demand in these emerging regions.
300
North America, Europe, and Japan will reduce seaborne
oil imports over the next 20 years, benefiting from fuel
efficiency gains, alternative energy supplies such as light
tight oil and new transport technologies (e.g. electric
cars). There will be a change in crude oil suppliers to North
America, away from the Middle East and towards Latin
America.
Middle
East China
Middle
East South
Asia
200
100
0
The majority of Russias oil exports will still go to Europe in
2030, but there will be a trend to diversify its export to Asia,
with a particularly significant increase to China.
Intra LAm
Page 57
Page 58
Source: MSI / LR
2010
5
10
50
100
North
America
500
Importing
regions
Japan
Europe
CIS
Latin
America
China
South Asia
Exporting
regions
Southeast
Asia
Middle East
Africa
South
Korea
Oceania
Page 59
Source: MSI / LR
North
America
500
Importing
regions
Japan
Europe
CIS
Latin
America
China
South Asia
Exporting
regions
Southeast
Asia
Middle East
Africa
South
Korea
Oceania
Page 60
Source: MSI / LR
Africa
China
Europe
Japan
South Korea
Latin America
North America
Oceania
Southeast Asia
2010
Source: MSI / LR
Other
South Asia
Eastern Mediterranean
CIS
India
Middle East
North Africa
Other Africa
2010
2030
2030
Competing Nations
Competing Nations
Status Quo
Status Quo
Global Commons
0
Global Commons
500
1,000
1,500
1,500
1000
500
Page 61
Source: MSI / LR
2010
2030 Competing Nations
2030 Status Quo
2030 Global Commons
100
75
50
25
0
25
50
75
Trade between the Arabian
Gulf and Southeast Asia
100
Page 62
Source: MSI / LR
2010
5
10
50
100
North
America
Japan
Europe
China
500
Importing
regions
Exporting
regions
Latin
America
South Asia
North Africa
Other Africa
Southeast
Asia
Middle East
South
Korea
Oceania
Source: MSI / LR
North
America
Japan
Europe
500
Importing
regions
Exporting
regions
China
Latin
America
South Asia
North Africa
Other Africa
Southeast
Asia
Middle East
South
Korea
Oceania
Page 63
Page 64
LNG trade
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carriers could ship natural gas to distant market where
pipeline transport becomes uneconomical.
LNG import
The largest increase in LNG import will come from the energy-hungry India and China
between 2010 and 2030. The natural gas import will be dominated by Japan, Europe,
India and China in 2030.
LNG export
LNG export will be dominated by Australia and Qatar in 2030. Qatar is the biggest LNG
exporter today. But thanks to Australia's several LNG export projects under development,
Australia is tipped to surpass Qatar by 2020. The largest export increases will take place
in Australia and Nigeria. East Africa, in particular Mozambique, could be a new hotspot in
LNG exports due to its recent large offshore discoveries.
Source: MSI / LR
Source: MSI / LR
Japan
Europe
India
China
South Korea
Southeast Asia
Brazil
Other
2010
2030
Australia
Qatar
Nigeria
Indonesia
CIS
Malaysia
Algeria
Trinidad and Tobago
Oman
USA
Other
Competing Nations
2010
2030
Competing Nations
Status Quo
Status Quo
Global Commons
0
100
Global Commons
200
300
400
500
600
600
500
400
300
200
100
Page 65
Page 66
Source: MSI / LR
2010
1
Export
Import
5
10
50
Africa
China
Europe
Europe
CIS
Latin America
Middle East
North America
Oceania
Southeast Asia
Others
Japan
Latin America
Middle East
North America
South Asia
South Korea
Southeast Asia
Others
Page 67
The major seaborne trade routes of Natural Gas trade in 2030 will be between: Australia to
Japan; Australia to China. Routes with the largest increases are: Australia to China and Japan;
Egypt to India and UK; CIS to Japan; Nigeria to China and UK; Qatar to India and UK.
Fig. 49 Seaborne LNG trade in 2030 (million tonnes)
Source: MSI / LR
Export
Import
Africa
China
Europe
Europe
5
10
50
CIS
Latin America
Middle East
North America
Oceania
Southeast Asia
Others
Japan
Latin America
Middle East
North America
South Asia
South Korea
Southeast Asia
Others
Page 68
Coal trade
Source: MSI / LR
2010
Iron ore and coal are the two major dry-bulk cargoes.
About two-thirds of coal transported is steam coal, used
in power stations. A third of coal is coking coal, essential
for steel production.
2030
Coal export
Australia will be at the helm of the coal export in 2030.
Although Indonesia took over from Australia and became
the biggest coal exporter in 2011, such dominance may
not last long as the government will urge a curb in exports
to conserve the limited coal reserves for the countrys
expanding domestic use.
500
Coal import
0
Coal import will be dominated by India and China in
2030. India will overtake China and become the biggest
coal importer before 2030. On the other hand there is
high uncertainty about Chinas coal trade in the long
term. China is the worlds largest coal producer, and
500
yet it only became a coal importer in 2009. This is due
Competing Nations
to the need for high quality coking coal as well as the
transportation constraint of accessing China's further
inland coal supply (e.g. Innder Mongolia). The enhanced
Fig. 51 Coal export (million tonnes of oil equivalent)
Source: MSI / LR
productivity of these inland coal production will also be
pivotal to the global coal trade. There is also uncertainties
resulting from China's unconventional gas development
2010
2030
which could change the country's energy profile.
Japan and West European coal import growth will be
small, and their influence on the coal market will wane.
China
India
Japan
North America
Status Quo
Australia
China
India
Global Commons
North America
Rest of the World
Western Europe
1,100
1,100
Competing Nations
Status Quo
Global Commons
Page 69
Source: MSI / LR
2010
2030 Global Commons
2030 Competing Nations
2030 Status Quo
Australia
Canada
Columbia
10
Export activity
Indonesia
Poland
China
South Africa
India
Japan
South Korea
LAm
Southeast
Asia
Taiwan
50
100
Import activity
WEU
USA
Page 70
Source: MSI / LR
2010
Iron Ore import
Iron ore import will be driven by demand which is linked
to urbanisation and industrialisation, particularly in Asia.
Although Chinas steel intensity will decline as the country
develops, Chinas robust economic development and
urbanisation will see its absolute dominance in iron ore
import remain intact.
China is a major iron ore producer, but its domestic
mines only met 34% of the demand in 2010. This is
because China needs to import higher grade iron ore
from overseas. Chinese iron ore has a low iron content
only reaching 28% by weight, compared to other major
producers averaging over 60%.
India is a major iron ore exporter hence it is excluded from
other Asia in the importer list.
2030
China
Other Asia
Japan
Europe
2,400
2,400
Competing Nations
Status Quo
Global Commons
Source: MSI / LR
2010
2030
Brazil
India
Oceania
Europe
1,100
1,100
Competing Nations
Status Quo
Global Commons
Page 71
Source: MSI / LR
2010
2030 Global Commons
2030 Competing Nations
2030 Status Quo
10
Export activity
Other LAm
West Africa
100
500
Import activity
Japan South China Taiwan Western LAm MdE Other Asia USA
Korea
Europe
Page 72
Grain trade
Grain import
Grain export
There will be large increase in the import levels in Africa and the Middle East. In 2030,
There will be a relatively large increase in the USA and CIS. Grain export will still be
grain import will be dominated by Africa, Latin America, Middle East, and Southeast Asia. dominated by the USA in 2030, accounting for 40% of the world's exports.
Fig. 56 Grain import (million tonnes)
Source: MSI / LR
2010
Canada
China
Europe
CIS
Japan
Latin America
Middle East
North Africa
Oceania
Other Africa
Other Asia
South Asia
USA
Source: MSI / LR
2030
2010
385
385
250
250
Canada
China
Europe
CIS
Japan
Latin America
Middle East
North Africa
Oceania
Other Africa
Other Asia
South Asia
USA
2030
Page 73
Source: MSI / LR
2010
2030 Status Quo
Canada
Europe
Latin
America
Oceania
USA
Japan
North Africa
Other Asia
China
10
100
Export activity
Import activity
South Asia
Other Africa
Page 74
Container trade
In 2030, China will still enjoy her leading role in primary
container trades. Latin America will bear the highest
uncertainties across 3 scenarios, overtaking Europe
and become second in 2030 in the Global Commons
scenario. However Latin America will remain the
fourth, after Southeast Asia, in the Competing Nations
scenario. This relies on the potential and challenges
of the industry reforms and transforming Latin
Americas society into an economy with competitive
manufacturing and growing consuming power.
The largest container tranship loaded lifts will still take
place in Southeast Asia in 2030. Europe, the current
second largest transhipment destination around the
world, will face a much slower growth. Her position will
be subsequently rivalled by China and the Middle Easts
remarkable progress by 2030 across all scenarios.
Source: MSI / LR
2010
Africa
Europe
China
Latin America
Middle East
North America
Oceania
South Asia
Page 75
Southeast Asia
2030
520,000
Competing Nations
Global Commons
Status Quo
520,000
Fig. 60 Container tranship loaded lifts (thousand TEU)
Source: MSI / LR
2010
Africa
Europe
China
Latin America
Middle East
North America
Oceania
South Asia
Southeast Asia
2030
520,000
Competing Nations
0
110,000
Status Quo
Global Commons
Page 76
Major Container
trade routes
Fig. 61 Seaborne Container trade 2010 (thousand TEU)
Source: MSI / LR
2010
1,000
5,000
25,000
190,000
Source: MSI / LR
1,000
5,000
25,000
190,000
Page 77
Page 78
Source: MSI / LR
2010 2030 -
Competing Nations
Status Quo
Global Commons
Bulk Carrier
Containership
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Tanker
100
200
300
400
500
LNG
100
200
300
400
500
25
50
75
100
Tanker fleet
Page 79
Source: MSI / LR
2010 2030 -
Competing Nations
Status Quo
Global Commons
Handy/Panamax
Aframax
25
50
75
100
125
Suezmax
25
50
75
100
VLCC
25
50
75
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
Page 80
Source: MSI / LR
2010 2030 -
Competing Nations
Status Quo
Global Commons
Handy
Panamax
25
50
75
100
125
Small Cape
25
50
100
150
200
Large Cape
50
75
100
125
150
50
100
150
200
250
300
Containership fleet
Page 81
The total tonnage of larger containerships will increase faster than smaller
ones. (Ships larger than 7,600 TEU to grow 6-6.5 times compared to ships
smaller than 7,600 which are to grow 1.4-2 times for the next 20 years)
Source: MSI / LR
2010 2030 -
Competing Nations
Status Quo
Global Commons
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
25
50
50
100
150
200
Page 82
Fleet ownership
24%
Page 83
Source: MSI / LR
2010
North America
Greece
Southeast Asia
Japan
China
2030
Competing Nations
Status Quo
Global Commons
Page 84
Tanker ownership
Europes tanker share will decrease from 41% in 2010 to
27%-34% in 2030. Southeast Asias share will grow from
11% in 2010 to 16%-19% in 2030. Chinas share will
grow from 7.6% in 2010 to 10%-13% in 2030.
Source: MSI / LR
2010
Southeast Asia
Greece
Middle East
China
Latin America
North America
2030
Competing Nations
Status Quo
Global Commons
Page 85
Source: MSI / LR
2010
2030
Competing Nations
South Korea
Greece
Middle East
China
Latin America
Japan
Africa
Southeast Asia
Status Quo
Global Commons
Page 86
Source: MSI / LR
2010
Southeast Asia
Greece
Latin America
China
Japan
2030
Competing Nations
Status Quo
Global Commons
Page 87
Containership ownership
Europes containership share will drop from 48% in 2010
Fig. 71 Containership ownership
Source: MSI / LR
to 29.5%-35.6% in 2030. North Americas containership
share will drop from 5.6% in 2010 to 3.7%-4.7% in 2030.
2010
Europe
South Korea
China
Middle East
Japan
Latin America
Southeast Asia
North America
2030
Competing Nations
Status Quo
Global Commons
Page 88
Shipbuilding
Shipbuilding market
Page 89
Emerging countries
The total deliveries from the emerging countries will
increase. Vietnam, Brazil, India, and Philippines will be
the potential leaders.
Source: MSI / LR
2006 - 2010
2026 - 2030 Competing Nations
2026 - 2030 Status Quo
2026 - 2030 Global Commons
South Korea
Source: MSI / LR
Other emerging
regions
Vietnam
Philippines
India
Brazil
16
12
8
Japan
4
0
Emerging Nations
32
24
16
2006-2010
0
2026-2030
Competing
Nations
2026-2030
Status Quo
2026-2030
Global
Commons
Page 90
Shipbuilding market
Tanker
Tanker is the only ship type that we anticipate a decreasing
delivery for the next 20 years. Newbuildings will be
dominated by China (44-55%), South Korea (25-27%),
and emerging countries (8-20%) in 2030.
Source: MSI / LR
Source: MSI / LR
2010
China
Emerging Nations
Japan
South Korea
16
12
2030
8
Competing
Nations
Status
Quo
Global
Commons
0
2006 - 2010 2026-2030
Competing
Nations
2026-2030
Status Quo
2026-2030
Global
Commons
Page 91
Shipbuilding market
LNG Carrier
Total LNG Carrier deliveries will rise by 2030. South Korea
will gradually lose her total dominance in LNG carrier
newbuildings by 2030. Chinas market share (41-51%)
in LNG newbuildings will be on par with South Koreas
(43-53%) by 2030.
Source: MSI / LR
Source: MSI / LR
2010
China
Japan
South Korea
6
5
4
2030
3
2
Competing
Nations
Status
Quo
Global
Commons
1
0
2006 - 2010 2026-2030
Competing
Nations
2026-2030
Status Quo
2026-2030
Global
Commons
Page 92
Shipbuilding market
Containership
The total deliveries of containership will be increased
Chinas share will continue to rise, while South Korea and
in 2030. The containership shipbuilding market will be
Japans share will wane.
dominated by China (39-48%) and South Korea (40-44%).
Source: MSI / LR
Source: MSI / LR
2010
China
Emerging Nations
Japan
South Korea
Europe
25
20
15
2030
10
5
Competing
Nations
Status
Quo
Global
Commons
0
2006 - 2010 2026-2030
Competing
Nations
2026-2030
Status Quo
2026-2030
Global
Commons
Page 93
Shipbuilding market
Bulk Carrier
The total bulk carrier deliveries will have increased for the
next two decades. Newbuildings in bulk carrier will be
dominated by China (40-59%) and emerging countries
(26-43%) in 2030.
Source: MSI / LR
35
Source: MSI / LR
2010
30
China
Emerging Nations
Japan
South Korea
Europe
25
20
15
2030
10
5
Competing
Nations
Status
Quo
Global
Commons
0
2006 - 2010 2026-2030
Competing
Nations
2026-2030
Status Quo
2026-2030
Global
Commons
Page 94
Naval sector
Foreword
Unpredictable,
unimaginable: Naval
probably seems like the
least certain of the maritime
sectors, dominated by
surprise, secrecy, and
political change all of
which can have dramatic
effects. However, the
underlying trend of
increasing economic growth is closely tied to growing naval
capability, and the surprises appear in how that capability is
exercised as power.
Much of our time at QinetiQ is occupied with considering
possible naval futures, and we constantly seek better ways
to help our clients prepare for them. Our work to support
Naval clients at a more strategic level is less known than
our technical support, so we were delighted when Lloyds
Register asked us to contribute.
Strategic thinking is an essential component of Naval
capability. Planning, for the naval wars no-one wishes
to fight, requires as much forethought as real warfare.
Understanding possible futures, and how to shape them,
helps to win the battles that may have to be fought around
the world. However, this knowledge also helps to win
battles at home about defence budgets. Naval platforms
have an operational lifespan of 25 years or more, so as
we design now, we must be thinking about Operational
Concepts for 2020, 2030 and beyond. Accurate thinking
about expected operations will have a substantial impact on
the through-life cost of the platform.
Page 95
Page 96
Source: www.vliz.be/vmdcdata/marbound
Page 97
Page 98
Recent evolution of
ships and systems
Recent development of national naval systems has
been most significant in information technology, rather
than personnel or platforms & mechanical systems. The
twentieth century naval adoption of technology from
mechanical to electro-mechanical to electronic systems
continues. Navies are increasingly complex, and integrated,
military information networks, with the potential for self
repair and autonomy. The need to put personnel in harms
way, especially for naval warfare which is so technologycentric, is decreasing.
Shrinking fleets
The number of platforms have been falling among
Advanced navies, but increasing among Emerging navies.
Page 99
2000
2010
704
489
423
259
2000
2010
283
338
Page 100
50,000
NPI
GDP
25,000
6%
6%
0
1970
1990
2010
Systems
40%
Personnel
35%
25%
Page 101
Page 102
Marine
security status
2010
Illegal immigration
Natural disaster area
Piracy
Major trade routes
Conflict
Loss of life
Destruction of assets
Forced migration
Low investment in
health and education
Low institutional
capacity
Low productivity
Low potential growth
Slow growth
2030
Illegal immigration
Natural disaster area
Piracy (Global Commons)
Piracy (Competing Nations)
Major trade routes
Global Commons
Cooperation is likely to significantly increase security.
Higher GDP growth will have an even more positive effect
on poorer societies.
Page 103
Competing Nations
Ineffective Governments will persist, so a second
generation, which has grown up with piracy as the main
source of income, may persist with piracy. Constabulary
and coastal patrol duties will continue in these regions.
Significant littoral and riverine naval efforts will be directed
at coastal region unrest and at environmental catastrophe
mitigation.
Page 104
3,870
20
17
3
1
US
Status Quo
This scenario suggests a significant increase in GDP
for most countries - aligned to economic growth and we expect larger navies to result. In particular, it
would suggest that the USA will retain global maritime
dominance. Any country considering a challenge would
require a massive change in its ability to generate GDP, or
in its willingness to commit a higher percentage of GDP to
naval expenditure, relative to the USA.
USA
Page 105
Global Commons
If the world develops more in line with the Global
Commons scenario, we can expect even greater GDP
growth, but relatively less tension and lower relative spend
on defence. These effects act against each other, resulting
in an actual increase in naval firepower over the relatively
short timeframe of 2030.
China
Russia
Japan
India
Source: QinetiQ
2010
2030
2010
2030
2010
10,000
10,000
10,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
100
100
100
10
10
10
2030
UK
Page 106
x2
Source: QinetiQ Note: key navies - US, Russia, Japan, China, UK, India
Systems
Manpower
Platforms
2010
2030
100 0
100
Source: QinetiQ Note: key navies - US, Russia, Japan, China, UK, India
2010
646
2030
380
Source: SIPRI (selected deliveries or orders for ships 2009 - 2011) / QinetiQ
Russia
24.5
France
16.5
Germany
13.5
UK
10
Netherlands 9.5
Sweden
8
Italy
5.5
Spain
4
Australia
3
China
3
South Korea 2
USA
2
Page 107
Page 108
Source: QinetiQ
Global Commons
Source: QinetiQ
Competing Nations
Page 109
Mature
technology
Un
de
rw
ate
rs
urv
eil
lan
ce
Ar
tifi
cia
l li
mb
s
Int
eg
rat
ed
top
sid
es
Tra
ns
for
ma
ble
cra
ft
Ta
cti
ca
l sa
tel
lite
s
Ele
ctr
om
ag
ne
tic
rai
lgu
Dir
n
ec
ted
en
erg
yw
ea
po
Su
ns
pe
r-c
av
ita
tin
gw
ea
po
ns
Ar
tifi
cia
l in
tel
lig
en
ce
Page 110
Global Marine Trends 2030 | Naval sector
Source: QinetiQ
2010
9
9
1
Less
mature
technology
Page 111
Mature
technology
en
erg
yw
ea
po
Ele
ns
ctr
om
ag
ne
tic
rai
lgu
n
Ar
tifi
cia
l in
tel
lig
en
ce
Su
pe
r-c
av
ita
tin
gw
ea
po
ns
Se
lf-f
ixin
gc
om
po
sit
es
Au
gm
en
ted
hu
ma
ns
Future technologies?
Dir
ec
ted
2030
Less
mature
technology
Page 112
Foreword
As the population grows to
nearly 8 billion, economic
output more than doubles
and prosperity expands
across the globe by 2030
energy demand increases
to about 40% higher than
today. This energy demand
needs to be met by lowcarbon fuels and more
diverse and sustainable sources including renewables in a
manner that is safe, secure and affordable.
Page 113
Page 114
The market has prompted explorers, scientists and engineers to find new
ways to meet demand when new sources are needed. Their research and
development activities today include a revolution in unconventional gas
sources; the acceleration in offshore renewables; and an exploration drive
in colder and deeper frontiers such as the Arctic.
Page 115
Page 116
Offshore oil
34% of worldwide oil production occurred offshore in
2004. This is expected to increase to 40% by 2015 and
to 48% by 2030. This is mostly due to the increase of
production in deep water offshore fields, which should
move from 10% share (2004) to 25% (2015) and to 45%
in 2030. This will compensate the decline from traditional
offshore fields. Deep offshore oil production is expected
to increase by 11.5% per annum, moving from 2.5 million
barrels per day (Mb/day) in 2004 to 8.25 Mb/day (2015),
producing as much oil as Saudi Arabia did in 2002.
Fig. 98 Offshore oil supply (million tonnes)
Status Quo
Global Commons
Competing Nations
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
2010
2030
Page 117
Status Quo
Global Commons
Competing Nations
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
2010
2030
Page 118
270
Total platforms
in 2010
2010
2
42
3
19
48
2
27
51
16
58
2
Page 119
618
Total platforms
in 2030
2030
56
46
57
46
46
46
52
46
58
54
44
59
50
45
55
56
56
56
30
30
30
47
42
52
96
91
107
54
50
58
20
20
20
Status Quo
Competing Nations
Global Commons
67
67
67
2
0
2
Page 120
Wind energy
Wave energy
Tidal energy
Ocean current energy
Page 121
Status Quo
Fig.102 Wind capacity (MW) Global Commons
Source: University of Strathclyde
Competing Nations
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2010
2030
Page 122
100
2010
842
45
Page 123
2030
Status Quo
Competing Nations
Global Commons
39,000
79
102
43,000
50,000
59
29,000
34,000 40,000
Page 124
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
22,000
Page 125
50
Page 126
Disruptive forces
Page 127
Page 128
Page 129
Page 130
Page 131
Page 132
Page 133
Source: QinetiQ
Pacific Ocean
USA
Canada
Russia
North
Pole
Greenland
Atlantic
Ocean
Page 134
The result would be a huge upheaval for the marine world. Fig.108 The Caliphate
The Suez canal is critical to East-West trade. The Arctic and
Atlantic trade routes could increase in importance.
Page 135
Page 136
Page 137
Page 138
Page 139
Source: Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jrgen Randers and William W. Behrens, III, Limits to Growth, 1972
G. Turner A Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Thirty Years of Reality, CSIRO Working Paper 2008-09
Non-renewable resources
Food per capita
1950
1970
2000
2050
2100
Page 140
Postscript
Predicting the future
is arguably the most
important, hard, and
necessary discipline facing
decision makers in every
industry. It is particularly
challenging in the
marine industry, with its
dependency on the global
economy.
Page 141
Ivy Fang
Patrick Carnie
Page 142
Glossary
Acronym Description
ADB
Asia Development Bank
ASEAN
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations
BMD
British Maritime Doctrine
BRIC
Brazil, Russia, India, and China
dwt
Deadweight tonnage
EIA
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Primary
and
transhipment
lifts
Economy: GDP measurement
EU
European Union
For example, if a container is shipped from Hai Phong
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GDP is the market value of final products and services
(Vietnam) to Rotterdam (Netherlands) while stopping at
GMT2030 Global Marine Trends 2030
produced within a country. GDP of a country can be
Singapore during the journey, there are
GT
Gross Tonnage
measured and compared in nominal, real and PPP
two primary lifts (Hai Phong and Rotterdam
IEA
International Energy Agency
(Purchasing Power Parity) terms.
and two transhipment lifts (in Singapore).
IMB
International Maritime Bureau
Nominal GDP measures the value of output during a given
IMF
International Monetary Fund
year using the prices prevailing that year (current prices).
Bulk Carrier Size Definition
kWh
Kilowatt hour
However it is usually preferred to remove the change in
LNG
Liquefied natural gas
Handy:
5-49,999
dwt
the value of money (the effect of inflation or deflation)
LR
Lloyds Register Group Limited
Panamax: 40-79,999 dwt
while comparing GDP measurement between different
MESA Middle East and South Asia
Small
Cape:
80-149,999
dwt
years. The GDP measurement with such adjustment is
MSI
Maritime Strategies International Ltd.
Large Cape: 150,000 dwt plus
called real GDP, calculated in constant prices.
(www.msiltd.com)
NATO
North Atlantic Treaty Organization
PPP adopts an exchange rate between currencies based on Naval fleet is grouped by country of origin
NPI
Naval Power Index
representative goods. A representative basket of goods in
Western Fleet - Including fleet from USA, UK, EU, Brazil,
NS
National Statistics
country A costs the same as in country B if the currencies
Canada,
and
Australia.
OECD
Organisation for Economic Co-operation
are exchanged at PPP rate.
Eastern Fleet - Including fleet from China, South Korea,
and Development
We used 2010 as the base year for both real and PPP GDP Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam.
PBOC
Peoples Bank of China
measurement.
PPP
Purchasing power parity
Naval
systems
SIPRI
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Annual expenditure: All expenditure incurred by individuals
TEU
Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit
during 1 year.
Machinery, electrotec & propulsion, command and control,
toe
Tonnes of oil equivalent
sensors and weapons systems.
TWh
Terawatt hours
Trade
ULCV
Ultra Large Container Vessel
Technology Readiness Level (TRL)
UN
United Nations
Doha Round/ Doha Development Round is the current trade
TRL (1-9) is a measure used by some United States
UNCLOS United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
negotiation round among the WTO members, aiming to
government agencies and many of the worlds major
USGS
U.S. Geological Survey
reduce trade barriers and improve the international trade.
companies (and agencies) to assess the maturity of
VLCC
Very large crude carrier
evolving technologies (materials, components, devices,
WEC
World Energy Council
Oil, Crude Oil, and Product Oil
etc.) prior to incorporating that technology into a system
WEU
Western Europe
The term oil in the document tends to capture the general or subsystem. TRL-1 being the least mature.
WTO
World Trade Organization
petroleum/oil market. Crude oil is a complex liquid mixture
of hydrocarbons and organic compounds found naturally.
Product oil is processed oil derived from oil refineries.
Handy/Panamax: 5-69,999 dwt
Aframax: 70-124,999 dwt
Suezmax: 125-199,999 dwt
VLCC : 200,000 dwt plus
Page 143
Southeast Asia
Brunei, Cambodia, East Timor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.
Europe
Countries in the Europe Continent, excluding Russia
and Turkey.
Oceania
Australia, New Zealand.
Africa
Countries in the African Continent.
North America
USA, Canada.
Page 143
Assumptions
Demand
Economic
Regional GDP
FEX/Interest rates inflation
IIP Commodity prices capacity
Bulk Trades
(by cargo and region)
Supply/Disposition
Bilateral trades
Trading Efficiencies
Vessel specs
Pipelines
Canals
Sea lanes
Ballasting
Disch./Load days
Port draft
Constraints
5
Market Balances
3
Costs
Crew
Insurance
Lubes/Store
Repair/Maintenance
Admin
4
Supply
AV Supply
Lay up
Slow stream
Partcargo
Employment
Rate
Surplus
TC Rates
Vessel Prices
Newbuilding
Costs
Secondhand
Scrap
Fleet by age
Break up
Deliveries
Casualities
Storage
Global
Marine
Trends
2030
Global
Marine
Trends
2030
QinetiQ
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