SCARBOROUGH BY ELECTION

METHODOLOGY
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 578 Scarborough Rouge River voters by Chimera IVR on August 28-29, 2016.
A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 4.08%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed
by age, gender and ethnicity based on the 2011 Canadian Census. The poll was conducted in English, Tamil, Cantonese
and Mandarin.

A2

TIGHT RACE IN SCARBOROUGH ROUGE RIVER

August 31 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet poll nds a tight race in the Scarborough Rouge River by
election with the PCs and Liberals within 5% of each other - just slightly outside the margin of error. With
578 respondents the Mainstreet Poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.08%, 19 times out of 20. The poll was
conducted through IVR.
It looks like this race is going to come down to the wire - and ultimately to the party with the strongest
get-out-the-vote operation, said David Valentin, executive vice-president of Mainstreet Research. The PCs
lead by 5% over the Liberals among decided and leaning voters, showing the NDP far behind at 18%.
The poll was conducted over Sunday and Monday - meaning most respondents would not have learned
about Patrick Browns reversal on scrapping Ontarios new sex-ed curriculum. How the reversal on the
sex-ed curriculum will aect PC support in Scarborough, if at all, remains to be seen.
Turn out for by elections is typically low making them dicult to predict. What it will come down to is
which party has the most committed supporters. For the Tamil community, the opportunity to elect a Tamil
Canadian to Queens Park may make the dierence. For the Conservatives it may be the allure of
penetrating the Liberals Toronto bastion, nished Valentin.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Phone Interview: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

If the provincial by election

were held today,which candidate
would you support?

40
35
30
25
20
15
10

35%

15%

3%

17%

30%

OLP

PC

NDP

OGP

Undecided

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Liberal

42%

24%

25%

29%

33%

27%

PC

18%

37%

46%

43%

34%

36%

NDP

20%

18%

13%

8%

14%

16%

Green

2%

4%

2%

3%

4%

2%

Undecided

19%

17%

15%

18%

15%

19%

Sample

59

198

168

153

268

310

A4

DECIDED & LEANING

40
35
30
25
20
15
10

41%

18%

5%

36%

OLP

PC

NDP

OGP

A5

SCRIPT

If the provincial by election were held today, which candidate would you support?
Piragal Thiru of the Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne
Raymond Cho of the Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown
Neethan Shan of the NDP led by Andrea Horwath
Priyan De Silva of the Green Party led by Mike Schreiner
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for?
Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne
Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown
NDP led by Andrea Horwath
Green Party led by Mike Schreiner
Undecided

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

CONNECT WITH US:

WEBSITE
mainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER
@MainStResearch

FACEBOOK
fb.com/mainstresearch

2016 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

reserved