002115-0038 Jefferson Widodo Final EE

Extended Essay
Mathematics Higher Level
Topic:
Population Dynamics Modeling of Nile tilapia and Giant gourami
Research Question:
When competing interspecifically, which feeding method, overfeeding or supplying the
amount of pellets exactly equal to the consumption level, yields a greater chance of
survival for N. tilapia and G. gourami?
Candidate Name: Jefferson Widodo

Candidate Number: 002115 0038
School Name: Cita Hati Christian High School
Session: May 2016
Advisor: Allan Ngongoloy
Word Count:
-
Abstract: 288 words

Essay: 3966 words
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
Abstract
The inspiration of this research came from the arising biological claims outlining the
dangers of overfeeding fish, resulting in the decline of the population. However, when
competition occurs, overfeeding is a possible alternative to consider since the weaker species
would then not be deprived of essential nutrition. This important consideration affecting the
fish farming industry suggests the research question: When competing interspecifically,
which feeding method, overfeeding or supplying the amount of pellets exactly equal to
the consumption level, yields a greater chance of survival for N. tilapia and G.
gourami? I outlined 2 criterions on the outcome of the investigation, which are: if the
competing species of fish are found to be unable to coexist long-term, then the feeding
method allowing a longer survival time is a better feeding method. However, if the
population is found to be coexisting, then whichever method allows more individuals to
survive will be concluded as a better one. The approach which is going to be used in this
investigation would be population dynamics modeling. I modeled the dynamics of the
population on both feeding methods using Systems of ODE. I then inputted the numerical
values of the parameters for the model based on primary and secondary data collection on the
pertinent parameters. After inputting the numerical values, graphical analysis is used in order
to analyze the existence of both species in the long-term. Using the graphical analysis, I
arrived at the conclusion that overfeeding provides a better chance of survival by allowing
both species to coexist, at a population number of 911187 for N. tilapia and 167804 for G.
gourami. However, at the end of the research I outlined a more realistic model of the situation
to be investigated in further researches.
Word count: 288 words
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
Table of Contents
Heading
Introduction
Introduction to Population Dynamics Modeling
Conventions
Methodology
Resource Inter-specific Competition Model
Further Modeling
Constant Determination
Finalized Systems of ODE
Model Analysis
Null-cline and Flow Pattern Analysis
Results from the Flow-Pattern Analysis
Determining the Local Stability & Dynamics within the Equilibrium Point
Phase Portrait of the Dynamics
Feeding Method Evaluation
Conclusion
Limitations & Recommendations
Bibliography
Appendix 1: Proof for the Equations
Appendix 2: Glossary of Key Terms Used
Appendix 3: Pellet Properties Investigation
Appendix 4: Exponential Growth Model and Logistic Growth Model
Appendix 5: Specification of the Pond & the Interview Conducted with Mr.
Markus
Appendix 6: Primary & Secondary Data for the Parameter Calculation
Page
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Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
Introduction
Breeding different species of fish within the same habitat has been a common practice
of aquaculture in order to maximize the container capacity usage. As a result, different
species of fish in the container will compete for food for survival. This particular interspecies
competition is known as Inter-specific Competition 1. One possible factor determining the
outcome of a competition would be the availability of resources, which in fact exist in a
limited quantity. Consequently, those specie of fish that vastly overwhelm those that are less
significant, causes the dominance of one species over the other in the same habitat.
In the case of aquaculture, breeders can manage the supply of resources entering the
habitat. Their sole aim would be to ensure that each fish species being bred would have the
greatest chance of survival regarding the competition in the habitat. To achieve such
conditions, it is essential for breeders to adopt appropriate feeding sequences.
Overfeeding may seem to be the best alternative in ensuring the survival of each
species. However, it has been claimed that overfeeding is one of the major causes of fish loss,
due to the accumulation of waste in the habitat. 2This research would therefore evaluate, in
terms of the resulting dynamics of the population solely, the feeding method that yields the
greatest chance of survival. In the context of this research, there are two criterions in defining
a great chance of survival; the time to extinction for one of the specie, if the population is
not able to coexist and the stable steady state 3 of the population, which allows more fish to
survive in the long-term, if the population is able to coexist 4.
Please refer to the definition in Appendix 2

Drs. Smith, D. (2015). Overfeeding Fish: Why It's a Problem and How To Avoid It. Peteducation.com.
Retrieved 15 October 2015, from http://www.peteducation.com/article.cfm?c=16+2160&aid=3401
3
4
Loc. cit.
2
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
In this Extended Essay, the appropriate resource feeding habit will be determined in
order to maximize the survivability for both Nile tilapia and the Giant gourami by analyzing
their dynamics while both species live in the same habitat, competing for pellets as their food
source.
Two methods will be evaluated in this research; supplying pellets exceeding the
level of consumption (overfeeding) and supplying pellets exactly equal to the
consumption level.
The research question of the Extended Essay will be:
When competing interspecifically, which feeding method, overfeeding or supplying the
amount of pellets exactly equal to the consumption level, yields a greater chance of
survival for N. tilapia and G. gourami?
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
I. Introduction to Population Dynamics Modeling

A population model is a model which describes the changes over time of a population
occupying a single installation and its immediate surroundings. 5 This representation can be
analyzed by biologists to formulate hypotheses. The population model can be constructed by
including factors that contribute change in population (eg: mortality, natality, migration,
etc). The more factors incorporated, the more realistic the model can be.
Differential Equation 6 is essential in modeling the population dynamics of N. tilapia
and G. gourami. As stated previously, N. tilapia and G. gourami compete inter-specifically
for food, thus changing their population numbers over time. The model discussed in this
research will therefore outline how competition plays role in the variation of both species
population number.
II. Conventions
Throughout this research, the convention on the subscripts in denoting the parameters
and state variables will be:
1 7 .
The time unit used is in days
2 .
III. Methodology
A. Research Procedure
Unknown Author.(n.d). Population Models. 24

www.esd.ornl.gov/programs/SERDP/EcoModels/popmodel.html
6
Loc. cit.
7
September
2015.
Retrieved
from
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
1. Looking for an appropriate mathematical model for the situation. An appropriate

resource inter-specific competition model will be investigated for modeling the dynamics of
existing ecosystem.
2. Outlining interpretations and implementing further modifications on the decided
model. After the suitable resource inter-specific model is thoroughly decided, the
parameters 8 and state variables for the model will be defined, reflecting the modelers
interpretation of the populations circumstances. Further modification(s) on the decided
model(s) is/are optional, with the aim of further improving the model in terms of its
resemblance towards the real ecosystem.
3. Determining the constants for the parameters of the model. After implementing the
modification(s), each parameter will be determined based on primary and secondary data in
regard of the ecosystems properties (mortality, natality, etc), creating the final model
suitable for analysis.
4. Carrying out an analysis on the finalized model. The model will then be analyzed using
qualitative
analysis,
through
graphical
and
geometric
approaches,
instead
of
quantitative/numerical method (e.g: Numerical integration). Geometric insight, by means

of graphical approach, will provide pictorial results that lead to better understanding of the
ecosystems dynamics 9.
B. Data Collection
a. Primary Data

de Boer, R. (n.d). Modeling Population Dynamics: a Graphical Approach. 24 September 2015.
Retrieved from http://theory.bio.uu.nl/rdb/books/mpd.pdf
9
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
Primary data will be collected experimentally 10for determining the properties of the
pellets used in the model and collecting the specification for the size of the pond via
interview with Mr. Markus (pond owner) 11.
b. Secondary Data
Secondary data in this research will be collected using mathematical lecture notes,
books, and websites.
IV. Resource Inter-specific Competition Model
Resource competition model is a population dynamics model which outlines how
changes in the amount of resource influence the amount of population of two competing
species. The state variables 12 are the resource variable , the population of the 1st specie
variable1 , and the population of the 2nd specie variable 2 . There are 3 Ordinary
Differential Equations 13 to be modeled; they are
1
,
,

and
contributing to its changes in quantity with respect to time.
, with each outlining factors
Theoretically, the state variable quantities are inter-dependent. 1 , within a particular
period, depends on R and 2 . Vice versa for 2 . In order to solve the ODEs simultaneously
for the sets of solution (, 1 , 2 ) due to the inter-dependence of the variables, a system of
equation will be formulated. Systems of equation are used in modeling almost all population
growth models involving two/ more state variables.
There will be 2 systems of ODEs to be outlined: 1) The dynamics when the right
amount of pellets is supplied, 2) when excess amount of pellets are supplied.
10
Please refer to Appendix 3

12
Loc. cit.
13
Please refer to the definition of differential equations in Appendix 2, and starting from this point
ordinary differential equations will be abbreviated as ODEs
11
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
Consider one of the simplest resource interspecific competition growth model14:
= 1 1 2 2 [1]

1
= 1 1 1 1 1 [1]

2
= 2 2 2 2 2 [1]
There are vast possible interpretations for this model, however in the context of this
research, the interpretation of the parameters and state variables are as follows:
Table 1.State Variables & Parameters interpretation for the model

Parameters
s Supply of resource in terms of number of
pellets per day
Decay rate of the pellets per day (can
also be interpreted as probability of decay)
1 &2 Rate of consumption
1 &2 Density-independent natality per
capita
1 &2 Density-independent mortality per
capita
State Variables
1 &2 Amount of population at a
particular time period
Amount of available pellets at a
particular time period
ODEs interpretation:
, the change in quantity of resource over time, is governed by the resource input
and reduction by , 1 1 , and 2 2 . , represents the reduction in the amount
of pellets due to pellet decay. , represents the reduction in the amount of

pellets due to N. tilapias consumption. With similar explanation, represents
the reduction in the amount of pellets due to G. gouramis consumption.
, the change in the population number of N. tilapia over time, is governed by the
input and the reduction in the number of N. tilapia by . ,

14

Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
represents the consumption-dependent natality, linking the variation in N. tilapias

natality in accordance to the available resource quantity. , represents the
mortality of N. tilapia where is the density-independent mortality per capita. As
seen from the equation above, the change in the amount of population does not
interact directly towards . However, their competition interaction is being linked

by
, through the expressions and .
, with similar explanation, the change in the population number of G. gourami
over time is governed by the consumption-dependent natality and the

mortality .
V. Further Modeling
Being regarded as one of the simplest resource inter-specific competition models,
further modification(s) will be implemented at this stage. Referring to the form of the
exponential growth rate
= , where is the natural rate of increase governed by the
input and the reduction factor, the equation
= , in the form
= 1 1 1 1 1 takes a similar form with
= (1 1 1 )1 , where = 1 1 1 . Referring to the
limitation of the exponential growth model as 15, the concept of density-dependence

14F
and carrying capacity should be incorporated. Logistic growth model16 is the population
model taking into account of density-dependence. The equation is as follows:
= 1 [2]
15
16

Loc.cit.
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
Where parameter is the carrying capacity 17of the specie living within the
environment. This equation will be incorporated into the consumption-dependent natality

for both population, as in the exponential growth model it is the natality which promotes
positive growth, leading to a population number of as . This is irrelevant due to
the limited space and resource which exist within an environment. With the underlying
concept, the modeled systems of ODE will become:
= 1 1 2 2 [3]

1
1
= 1 1 1 1 1 1 [3]
1

2
2
= 2 2 2 1 2 2 [3]

2
VI. Constant Determination
The next step to conduct would be incorporating the real-life situation into the model,
through the determination of the parameters governing the dynamical system. The definition
of each parameter will be provided when determining each. Compulsory data for the
calculations can be seen in Appendices.
Constant 1: 1 & 2 (See
Appendix 6)
Assumption:
a. The population of both fish consist of only broodstocks 18 of each specie.
b. The fish are fed twice a day, with the same amount of pellets on each
17
18

Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
With reference to the time unit in days, therefore the constant 1 and 2 are defined
as consumption rate per day and are mathematically defined as:
1 = . 2 [4]
2 = . 2 [4]
For & Lower bound of the consumption of both fish will be used
I. 1
= 1.5% 500
= 7.5
= 7.5 0.017157 /
= 437.139
438
Rounding up the number of pellets, in this case, ensures the fulfillment of the fishs
consumption levels. Rounding down the pellets would be irrelevant to the research question
since the context would then be consumption necessity, which should be fully fulfilled. 19
[3], :
1 = 438 2
19
= 876 /
As an example, if the number is rounded down to 437 pellets the amount of pellet the fish is lacking
in, from its consumption level, would be at the amount of 0.139 pellets.
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
II.2
= 3% 1500
= 45
= 45 0.017157 /
= 2622.836
2623
[3], :
2 = 2623 2
= 5246
Constant 2: ()/ (See Appendix 6)

Assumption:
The amount of pellets being supplied depends on the initial amount of population, 1 (0) &
2 (0), of the sample specie 20
Therefore, is mathematically defined as:
= 1 1 (0) + 2 2 (0) [5]
For Systems of ODE 1:

= 8761 (0) + 52462 (0)
20
For the reason of this assumption to be set, see the conclusion & recommendation page
10
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
= 876 100 + 5246 7
= 124322
For Systems of ODE 2:
Excess consumption, here, is interpreted as the upper bound of the consumption
level 21. The upper bound consumption level for both fish are denoted by 1 and 2 .
Calculation:
. 1
= 3% 500
= 15
= 15 0.017157 /
= 874.278
875
[4], :
1 = 875 2
= 1750 /
. 2
= 5% 1500
21
The value of the consumption level was mentioned in the previous section
11
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
= 75
= 75 0.017157 /
= 4371.394
4372
[4], :
2 = 4372 2
= 8744
In order to adapt formula [5] to current context, formula [5] is modified into:
is therefore calculated as:
= 1 1 (0) + 2 2 (0) [5]
= 1 1 (0) + 2 2 (0)
= 1750 100 + 8744 7

= 236208
Constant 3: 1 &2 22 (See Appendix 6)
Mortality ()23, by definition, shows the probability of an individual dying per time
period. Considering the definition, it can be deduced that the reciprocal of mortality is
22
23

12
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
expressing the time before next death occurs, resulting in a new constant termed lifespan. 24
The relationship between lifespan and mortality is expressed mathematically as:
1
[6]
Calculation:
I.
1 =
=
1
1
1
9
= 0.11/
,
,
1 =
0.11
365
= 0.000301/
II.
2 =
=
1
2
1
20
24
Lifespan can also be interpreted as the average age before death of individuals within a specie.
(Please refer to Appendix 2)
13
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
= 0.05/
,
1 =
0.05
365
= 0.000137/
Constant 4: 1 & 2 25 (See Appendix 6)

Constant 1 was determined in assumption that the population of the fish consists only
of broodstocks. Based on the underlying assumption, the density-independent natality per
capita is defined as the probability of the birth of broodstocks per unit time.
Another assumptions:
1. The density-independent natality is defined as the natural rate of increase solely from
the life cycle and the reproduction without any external factors.
2. The population is assumed to be growing exponentially governed by the densityindependent natality as the power of the exponential. The reason why exponential growth
rate is chosen in this case instead of logistic growth rate is because the growth rate is
independent of the population density, implying that, in this case, carrying capacity 26is
nonexistent.
3. 1 month always comprise of 30 days.
4. All fish are of the same sex.
25

Please refer to the definition in Appendix 2 and the concept of density-independence and dependence
growth rate in Appendix 4
26
14
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
5. The initial broodstock which reproduce still survives by the time their offspring becomes
a broodstock.
6. The fish reproduce by laying eggs, and it is assumed that all the eggs will hatch during the
hatching period.
I. 1
As the population grows exponentially, the value of 1 can be determined using the
solution of the exponential growth model: 27
() = 0 1 [7]
Calculation:
(), 0 , ,
(305) = 1 3051
2001 = 305 1
|2001| = | 305 1 |
3051 = |2001|
1 =
|2001|
305
= 0.025/
II.2
27
Please refer to the derivation in Appendix 1
15
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
Calculation:
(), 0 , ,
(181.5) = 1 181 .52

601 = 181 .52
|601| = | 181 .52 |

181.52 = |601|
2 =
|601|
181.5
= 0.035/
Constant 5: 1 & 2 28 (See Appendix 3, 5, and 6)

The model used here is derived from the simple formula outlined by a German
geographer, Albrecht Penck (1925) made to calculate the of human population in terms of
food as a resource for survivability. The formula is expressed as:

[8]

In the context of this research, the formula can further be modified as:
28

[8]
( )
16
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL

[8]

Assumptions:
The fish are able to survive with limited space available at an extremely high density
of pellets in the pond 29
The size of the fish had to be treated as their consumption level 1 and 2 . (i.e. 1 N.
tilapia is being represented in the pond by 438 pellets and G. gourami by 2623
pellets)- the interpretation of uses this assumption.
The volume of the pond to be fully filled with the pellets excludes the volume of
water inside the pond. 30
The carrying capacity 1 represents the maximum amount of N. tilapia able to fit into
the pond in the absence in G. gourami . Vice versa for 2 .
Each pellet is modeled as a sphere
Calculation:

=
= 1 2 [8]
=
:
4 3
[8]
3 2
29
Density of the pellets is interpreted as the volume of the pellet occupying the pond divided by the
volume of the pond
30
The volume of the pond on the formula above is just the volume of the amount of space in the
pond which is going to be filled with the pellets
17
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
= (())
1 = ()
2 = ()
= 1 2
= (2)2 2.3
= 28.9 3
=
4
= (2.5 103 )3
3
4 3
3 2
= 0.0000000654 3
[4], :
28.9 3
0.0000000654 3
= 441896024.5
441896024
18
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
The amount of pellet is rounded down, because the number of pellets (context)
should be an integer 31. This convention also applies when calculating 1 & 2 .
Hence, the carrying capacity for both species is calculated as follows:
I. 1
1 =

( )
=
441896024
438
= 1008895.032
1008895
II.2
2 =

( )
=
441896024
2623
168469.7
168469
Constant 6: (See Appendix 3)
Rate of decay of pellets is usually calculated using the exponential decay model 32,
involving half-life count. However, this approach and explanation is out of this
It is different to the calculation of 1 and 2 , whose context is the necessity of the fishes, which the
fishes should not be lacking in with relevance to the research question.
32
Unknown Author.(n.d). Radioactive Half-Life. Retrieved 12 November 2015, from
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/nuclear/halfli2.html
31
19
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
investigations scope. An alternative approach will involve probability distribution model,

which is a continuous probability distribution model with time as the random variable.
The model being used in this investigation is adapted from the model being outlined in the
book Estuarine Perspectives by L.F. Black 33, which is as follows:
Time for breakdown of pellets is normally distributed
Mean breakdown time is estimated using the equation:

=
[9]
= 1
=
=
In this investigation, the distribution is not assumed to be normal; instead the
probability density function () will be determined from the correlation of the resulting data
using trendline in Microsoft Excel 2007. Based on the investigation in Appendix 3, the
probability distribution is shown below:
Table 2. Probability Distribution Table for the Time of Decay for the Pellets
33
Kennedy, V. (1980).Estuarine Perspectives.Google Books. Retrieved 22 October 2015, from

https://books.google.co.id/books?id=2RslBQAAQBAJ&pg=PA398&lpg=PA398&dq=determining+the+rate+of
+decay+of+fish+pellets&source=bl&ots=vem5p1XAfa&sig=iyxqKRpmZ24lFiBcJgDoMoZfN0w&hl=id&sa=
X&ved=0CCkQ6AEwAmoVChMI4b26aPWyAIVyIuUCh0ktwxz#v=onepage&q=determining%20the%20rate%20of%20decay%20of%20fish%20pe
llets&f=false,
20
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
()
0 <
2
( = )
17
24
17
< 1
24
38
0.02
1 <
38
0.38
31
24
0.38
31
41
<
24
24
18
41
45
<
24
24
0.18
0.04
The probability density function () will now be determined. Due to the distribution
involving
50
45
continuous
random
variable,
histogram34
should
be
constructed.
Time for Pellet Decay
y = -0.35x5 + 5.916x4 - 34.25x3 + 71.58x2 - 16.9x - 24

R = 1
40
Frequency
35
30
25
Frequency
20
15
10
5
0
Time (day)
Fig. 1 Resulting histogram showing the distribution of the time of occurrence of the pellet decay
Having constructed the histogram, the probability density function () will be
determined using the data trendline. Polynomial trendline is being chosen in this case,
yielding an 2 value of 1. 35 However, this function should be further adapted because:
a. Frequency shown on the histogram above is the value of , not ( = )
34
Histograms are capable of representing the frequency of occurrence within a data interval (we would
expect the data to be in an interval/ classes of data for a continuous random variable)
35
This indicates a perfect correlation between the function of the trendline and the data.
21
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
b. The function does not start at = 0, which is irrelevant since the initial time always starts
at = 0
c. The function only applies on the time interval 0 , other than that, the frequency of
the occurrence should be 0.
d. Total area under the curve 36 should be equal to 1

Point (a):
As the value of the frequency ( () ) is the value of , not ( = ),
therefore using the formula ( = ) = 100 , () can be modified to:

() =
0.35 5 + 5.916 4 34.25 3 + 71.58 2 16.9 24

100
Point (b), (c), and (d):
As the decay occurs on a particular time interval 0 , the probability density
function is therefore only applicable within that interval. Therefore, the function should be
modeled as a piecewise-defined function below:
0.35 5 + 5.916 4 34.25 3 + 71.58 2 16.9 24
, for 0 t t i
() =
100
0,
Using the definition of the probability density function below, the upper bound for
the decay occurrence can be determined:
() = 1
36
Represents Cumulative Probability, which sums up to 1 in the law of probability
22
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL

0.35 5 + 5.916 4 34.25 3 + 71.58 2 16.9 24
= 1
100
0

1
0.35 5 + 5.916 4 34.25 3 + 71.5 2 16.9 24 = 1
100 0

0.35 5 + 5.916 4 34.25 3 + 71.58 2 16.9 24 = 1 00

0
0.35 6 5.916 5 34.25 4 71.58 3 16.9 2
24
6
5
4
3
2
0
0.35 6 5.916 5 34.25 4 71.58 3 16.9 2

+
24 0 = 100
6
5
4
3
2
0.35 6 5.916 5 34.25 4 71.58 3 16.9 2
+
24 100 = 0
6
5
4
3
2
No real root is yielded by this polynomial, which is irrelevant since
. An
alternative approach of approximating the interval is to determine the roots of the probabilitydensity function.
, :
() =
0.35 5 + 5.916 4 34.25 3 + 71.58 2 16.9 24

100
1 = 0.95599 ( 5 )
2 = 5.9159 ( 5 )
23
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
Concerning point (b) that the function should start at = 0 , therefore the
interval can be modified:
: 0.95599 0.95599 = 0
: 5.9159 0.95599 = 4.95991
With the value of being modified, the function () should too since it undergoes
horizontal translation of 0.95599. Therefore, the modified function is equivalent to

( + 0.95599) to the previous ().
()
=
0.35( + 0.95599)5 + 5.916( + 0.95599)4 34.25( + 0.95599)3 + 71.58( + 0.95599)2 16.9( + 0.95599) 24
100
, :
()
=
0.35( + 0.95599)5 + 5.916( + 0.95599)4 34.25( + 0.95599) 3 + 71.58( + 0.95599)2 16.9( + 0.95599) 24
, for 0 t 4.95991
100
0,
The modified function should be checked, whether the area under the curve is equivalent to 1.
, :
()
4.95991
0.35( + 0.95599)5 + 5.916( + 0.95599)4 34.25( + 0.95599)3 + 71.58( + 0.95599)2 16.9( + 0.95599) 24
100
= 1.04 1
As the area under the curve is approximately 1, therefore () is valid for being a
probability-density function. Thus, the resulting probability-density function is:
24
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
()
=
0.35( + 0.95599)5 + 5.916( + 0.95599)4 34.25( + 0.95599) 3 + 71.58( + 0.95599)2 16.9( + 0.95599) 24
, for 0 t 4.95991
100
0,
With the probability-density function of the distribution known, the mean value for
the occurrence of the pellet decay can be calculated; Using the formula below:
= () [5]
= ()
4.95991
0.35( + 0.95599)5 + 5.916( + 0.95599)4 34.25( + 0.95599)3 + 71.58( + 0.95599)2 16.9( + 0.95599) 24
100
, :
1.9039
Having determined the mean time for the pellet-decay to occur, the rate of decay of
the pellet 37, which is the reciprocal of the mean time for the decay is calculated using this
formula:
=
:
1
[10]
=
37
Rate of decay of pellet: The probability of a pellet decaying per unit time
25
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Mathematics HL
1
1.9039
= 0.52524 /
VII. Finalized Systems of ODE
Systems of ODE 1:
= 124322 0.52524 8761 52462 (11)
1
1
= 21.91 1
0.0003011 (11)
1008895

2
2
=
183.61
1
0.0001372 (11)
2

168469
Systems of ODE 2:
= 236208 0.52524 8761 52462 (12)
1
1
= 21.91 1
0.0003011 (12)
1008895

2
2
=
183.61
1
0.0001372 (12)
2

168469
As seen, the only parameter differing the conditions is the food supply parameter .
VIII. Model Analysis
Graphical analysis will be used in deducing the long-term existence of both fish,
involving the following steps:
a. Analyzing the flow pattern for the ODEs by constructing null-clines and phase plane,
and then determining the steady states based on the phase plane and subsequently
classifying each steady state based on the observation on its directional vectors.
Simultaneously, it will be identified whether both species are able to coexist in long-term.
26
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b. Determining the the solution for the stability of the equilibrium using Jacobian
Matrix, Eigenvalues, and Eigenvectors, outlining how the steady state would behave if an
initial perturbation 38(1 () 2 ()) occurs on the steady state. If found to be stable,
then it is classified as a stable steady state. Subsequently, the finalized dynamics based on
the resulting eigenvalues will be constructed using the software PPlane.
IX. Null-cline & Flow Pattern Analysis

The aim of the qualitative analysis is to evaluate the stable steady state, 39 which is
the existence of the population in long-term. The significance of stable steady state is that
as soon as the population of N. tilapia, G. gourami, and the resource reaches that point
(, 1 , 2 ), any small changes from that point will return the population number back to the
point in long-term. Before doing so, the steady states of the model must be determined 40,
which is defined as: 41
= 0 (13)

1
= 0 (13)

2
= 0 (13)
Graphical method 42 will be used for solving the systems of equation. 43Therefore, the
functions of the zeros of
the null-clines.
1 2
, ,
and
should be determined & plotted, and they are termed
38

40
There will be two classifications of the steady state points within this section
41
Bertram, R. (2008). Mathematical Models in Neural and Neuroendocrine Systems. Retrieved 17
November 2015, from http://www.math.fsu.edu/~bertram/presentations/workshops/AIM_08.ppt
39
42
Involves finding the intersection of the equations in the Systems of Equation
27
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Then, the observational stability behavior of the steady states will be determined,
using the flow pattern analysis. It involves the observation of the directional vector
governed by the derivatives
from a steady state. The directional vectors44 will then be
used to determine whether a small perturbation 1 on the steady state will return the
2
steady state back to its value in long-term. If it does, then the steady state is classified to be
an equilibrium point, whose stability are to be analyzed further; if it does not, it is classified
as a saddle point.
Due to the researchers limitation in the knowledge for determining the stability pattern of
3-Dimensional Models 45, the steady state will only be delimited by a 2-Dimensional steady
state; which requires an assumption called the Quasi-Steady State Assumption, where the
steady states only apply within the underlying assumption.
Assumption 46:
The steady state of the N. tilapia and G. gourami only applies at a stable amount of
resource when
= 0, denoted by . The significance of this assumption is that at
the point when there is no change in the amount of resource, it is the competition for
43
Keep in mind that there can exist more than 1 steady state, however it is their stability which
determines the existence of the population in the long-term.
44
The directional vectors is also termed the basin of attraction, which will lead a dynamics to approach
a stable steady state if a perturbation from the steady state occurs.
45
As there are 3 state variables, which will be involving Routh-Hurwitz Criterion for determining the
stability of a 3-Dimensional model. Gonze, D., & Kaufman, M. (2015, Nov 4). Theory of non-linear dynamical
systems. Retrieved 31 October 2015, from http://homepages.ulb.ac.be/~dgonze/TEACHING/nonlinear.pdf
46

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Mathematics HL
the remaining amount of resource which determines the existence for the population
ahead.
Using this assumption, is a constant in this case and is to be expressed in terms of 1
and 2 47. The expression is deduced as follows:
=0
0 = 1 1 2 2
0 = ( + 1 1 + 2 2 )
( + 1 1 + 2 2 ) =
+ 1 1 + 2 2
Parameter is different for each Systems of ODE. Thus, the expression will be
different for each condition.
Table 3.The Value of the Stable Resource using the Quasi-Steady State Assumption
For Systems of ODE 1
124322
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
236208
0.52524 + 761 + 52462
,
Systems of ODE 1
47
This hinders the need to find s exact numerical value
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Mathematics HL
1
1
= 21.91 1
0.0003011
1008895
=
=
21.9 1243221
1
1
0.0003011
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
1008895

.
. + +
2
2
= 183.612 1
0.0001372
168469
=
=
2
183.61 1243222
1
0.0001372
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
168469

.
. + +
Finalized Systems of ODE 1:

1
2722651.81
1
=
1
0.0003011 (14)
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462

1008895
22826762.422
2
2 =
1
0.0001372 (14)

0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
168469
Systems of ODE 2
1
1
= 21.91 1
0.0003011
1008895
=
=
21.9 2362081
1
1
0.0003011
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
1008895

.
. + +
2
2
= 183.612 1
0.0001372
168469
30
=
=
183.61 2362082
2
1
0.0001372
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
168469
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL

.
. + +
Finalized Systems of ODE 2:

5172955.21
1
1
=
1
0.0003011 (15)
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462

1008895
43370150.882
2
2 =
1
0.0001372 (15)

0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
168469
Null-Cline Analysis
The function of the null-cline will be determined and is expressed in terms of 1 &
2 . Then, the function of 2 against 1 will be plotted.

Systems of ODE 1
1
=0
1
2722651.81
1
0.0003011 = 0
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
1008895
1 ,
1
2722651.8
1
1
0.000301 = 0
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
1008895
, :
. =
2.
2722651.8
1
1
0.000301 = 0
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
1008895
31
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Mathematics HL
2 1 2 ,
2722651.8
1
1
= 0.000301
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
1008895
2722651.8(1008895 1 )
= 0.000301
1008895(0.52524 + 8761 + 52462 )
2722651.8(1008895 1 ) = 303.67(0.52524 + 8761 + 52462 )

8965.82(1008895 1 ) = 0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
9045570969 8965.821 = 0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
2. =
2
=0
22826762.422
2
1
0.0001372 = 0
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
168469
2 ,
2 [
22826762.42
2
1
0.000137] = 0
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
168469
, :
. =
4.
22826762.42
2
1
0.000137 = 0
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
168469
2 1 2 ,
32
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Mathematics HL
22826762.42(168469 2 )
= 0.000137
168469(0.52524 + 8761 + 52462)
22826762.42(168469 2 )
= 0.000137
168469(0.52524 + 8761 + 52462)
135.49(168469 2 ) = 0.000137(0.52524 + 8761 + 52462 )

988978.10(168469 2 ) = 0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
1.67 1011 988978.102 = 0.52524 + 8761 + 52462

1.67 1011 8761 = 994224.12
.
. =
.
Null-Clines for Systems of ODE 1:
2. 2 =
1. 1 = 0
9045570969 9841 .821

5246
3. 2 = 0
4. 2 =
Systems of ODE 2
1.67 1011 8761

994224.1
1
=0
5172955.21
1
1
0.0003011 = 0
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
1008895
Factorizing 1 ,
33
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Mathematics HL
1 [
5172955.2
1
1
0.000301] = 0
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
1008895
Therefore, we have two solution functions:
. =
2.
5172955.2
1
1
0.000301 = 0
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
1008895
Expressing solution 2 in terms of 1 and 2 ,
5172955.2 (1008895 1 )
= 0.000301
1008895(0.52524 + 8761 + 52462 )
17034.38(1008895 1 ) = 0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
1.72 1010 17034.381 = 0.52524 + 8761 + 52462

52462 = 1.72 1010 17910.381
2. =
. .
2
=0
43370150.882
2
1
0.0001372 = 0
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
168469
Factorizing 2 ,
2 [
43370150.88
2
1
0.000137] = 0
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
168469
Therefore, we have two solution functions:
. =
34
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Mathematics HL
4.
43370150.88
2
1
0.000137 = 0
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
168469
Expressing solution 2 in terms of 1 and 2 ,
43370150.88(168469 2 )
= 0.000137
168469(0.52524 + 8761 + 52462)
1879102.06(168469 2 ) = 0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
3.17 1011 1879102.062 = 0.52524 + 8761 + 52462

1884348.062 = 3.17 1011 8761
. =
Null-Clines for Systems of ODE 2:
2. 2 =
.
.
1. 1 = 0
1.721010 17910 .381

5246
3. 2 = 0
4. 2 =
3.17 1011 8761

1884348.06
35
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
Sketching the null-clines,

Systems of ODE 1
( = )
.
=
.
(, )
( = )
Fig. 2 Solution Plot for Systems of ODE 1 using Desmos Graphing Calculator
Steady States: 48
(0,0)
(919095,0)
(0, 1724280)
(0,167970)
(829952, 167239)
48
Recall that the 1 axis (equivalent to 2 = 0) and the 2 axis (equivalent to 1 = 0) are null-clines.
Therefore, the intersection between the two axes,(0,0), and the 1 & 2 intercepts are also steady states.
36
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
Systems of ODE 2
( = )
. .
.
=
(, )
. .
.
( = )
Fig. 3 Solution Plot for Systems of ODE 2 using Desmos Graphing Calculator
Steady States:
(0,0)
(0, 168228)
(960337, 0)
(911187, 167804)
(0, 3278689)
Flow Pattern Analysis
37
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
Different regions where the steady states may be perturbed into will be determined 49.
1
Then, the directional vectors 2 will be determined by evaluating the sign of
and
at a specified point within a region which then represents the regions vector. It is the
direction of the resultant vector which will be sketched onto the phase plane 50. The analysis
will just be carried out in the first quadrant as 1 and 2 are biologically significant when
1 0 and 2 0.
Region 1
Regionof3
Systems
Region 4
Region 2
Fig. 4 Regions of the flow-pattern analysis for Systems of ODE 1
49
The different regions yield different qualitative behavior (different directional vectors) Unknown
Author.(n.d). Phase plane analysis. Retrieved 17 November 2015, from http://systems-sciences.unigraz.at/etextbook/sw2/ph_plane_analysis.html
50
38
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Mathematics HL
Systems of ODE 1 Equations:

1
2722651.81
1
=
1
0.0003011
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462

1008895
22826762.422
2
2 =
1
0.0001372

0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
168469
Table 4. Resulting Directional Vectors in Systems of ODE 1
Coordinates
Region
1
2
3
4
N1
N2
Value of
1500000
1000000
-754.5455483
1500000
1
-1964.415418
1
500000
0.00073699
1
1
444.6935132
Sketching the resultant vectors, 51
Direction for
horizontal
component
Left
Left
Right
Right
Value of
-17312.08622
0.017234793
-8631.383452
3728.302488
Direction for
vertical component
Downwards
Upwards
Downwards
Upwards
Fig. 5 Resultant Vectors Sketch into the Phase Plane

51
The magnitude of the resultant vector is not to scale, it is the direction which is being considered in
order to determine which steady state is stable.
39
Jefferson Widodo
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Mathematics HL
Region 1
Region 4
Region 3
Region 2
Fig. 6 Regions of the flow-pattern analysis for Systems of ODE 2

Systems of ODE 2 Equations:
1
5172955.21
1
=
1
0.0003011
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462

1008895
43370150.882
2
2 =
1
0.0001372

0.52524 + 8761 + 52462
168469
Table 5. Resulting Directional Vectors in Systems of ODE 2
Coordinates
Value of
Region
Direction for
horizontal
component
Value of
Direction for
vertical
component
N1
N2
1500000
500000
-1410.885052
Left
-10907.76086
Downwards
1500000
-3325.993051
Left
0.032868875
Upwards
500000
0.00167115
Right
-16337.71683
Downwards
844.9043535
Right
7083.660892
Upwards
40
Jefferson Widodo
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Mathematics HL
Sketching the resultant vectors,
Fig. 7 Resultant Vectors Sketch into the Phase Plane
X. Results from the Flow-Pattern Analysis

The flow pattern analysis revealed that the directional vectors lead to a particular
equilibrium point within the model, which are the coordinate points (829952, 167239) and
(911187, 167804) for Systems of ODE 1 & 2, respectively. The other steady states when
perturbed, will be carried away 52 by the directional vectors and are unable to return to the
initial state, implying that they are unstable. Therefore, the remaining steady states are saddle
points.
52
Directional vectors can be interpreted as wind direction
41
Jefferson Widodo
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Mathematics HL
XI. Determining the Local Stability & Dynamics within the Equilibrium Point
Fig. 8 Illustrating the local stability analysis using PPlane by John C. Polking; The global
dynamics (top); A closer look at the dynamics around the steady state (bottom)
Having determined the equilibrium points, the final step would be taking a closer
look, literally, on the stability of the equilibrium points when perturbed into its neighboring
regions. In order to do so, one should investigate the effect of small perturbation on the
steady state using the approximated linearized function of the dynamics around the steady
42
Jefferson Widodo
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Mathematics HL
state. 53This linearized dynamics yields a matrix of partial derivatives, the Jacobian Matrix A,
defined as follows for a 2-Dimensional Model:

= 1
2
2
[16]
2
Each entry of the matrix will be evaluated at the equilibrium point. 54 After
determining each entry, the analysis will focus on whether the displacements will ultimately
grow (moving the population away from the steady state, implying instability) or shrink
(returning the population back into the steady state, implying stability) in magnitude. The
dynamics characterizing the growth in displacement, which is going to be visualized using
PPlane will be governed by eigenvalues () and eigenvectors (), which are calculated
using these formulas: 55

Eigenvalues
de t( ) = 0 [17]

Eigenvectors 56
1 0
0 1
53
This linearization requires the functions Taylor Expansion around the steady state. deRoos, A.
(2014, Dec 17). Modeling Population Dynamics. 24 September 2015. Retrieved from
https://staff.fnwi.uva.nl/a.m.deroos/downloads/pdf_readers/syllabus.pdf
54
Substituting the values of 1 and 2 from the coordinates of the equilibrium point
Please refer to the derivation of the formula in Appendix 1
56
For a 2-Dimensional Model, there exist 2 eigenvectors. Each is found by substituting an eigenvalue
at a time from the Jacobian Matrix.
55
43
Jefferson Widodo
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Mathematics HL
( ) 1 = 0 [18]
2
Generalized Solution for the Magnitude of Perturbation over time
The generalized solution characterizing the growth of the displacement over time will
now be determined, using the formula:
() =
1 ()
= 1 1 1 + 2 2 2 [19]57
2 ()
1 (0)
1 & 2 are unique 58 constants for a specific initial perturbation
, found by
(0)
2
solving this equation:
1 (0)
(0) =
= 1 1 + 2 2 [20] 59
(0)
58F
Calculation for Systems of ODE 1

: (829952, 167239)
=
2
2
2
1
2722651.81
1
=
1
0.0003011
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462

1008895
=
2722651.81 (1008895 1 )
0.0003011
1008895(0.52524 + 8761 + 52462 )
57
Please refer to the derivation of the formula in Appendix 1

Unique here means that the value of 1 and 2 depends on the initial condition (0)
59
The exponential expression cancels out as when = 0, = 1
58
44
Jefferson Widodo
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Mathematics HL
2.75 1012 1 2722651.812

=
0.0003011
529912 + 8837920201 + 52926631702
2
22826762.422
2
=
1
0.0001372
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462

168469
=
=
22826762.422 (168469 2 )
0.0001372
168469(0.52524 + 8761 + 52462 )
3.85 1012 2 22826762.4222

0.0001372
88486.66 + 1475788441 + 8837883742
Calculation:
11
2 = ,
=
2.75 1012 1 2722651.812

=
0.0003011
1 529912 + 8837920201 + 52926631702
2.75 1012 1 2722651.812
0.0003011
1 529912 + 8837920201 + 5292663170 1
2.75 1012 1 2722651.812

=
0.000301
1 529912 + 8837920201 + 5292663170
2.75 1012 1 2722651.812

1 529912 + 8837920201 + 5292663170
= 2.75 1012 1 2722651.812
= 2.75 1012 5445303.61

1
= 529912 + 8837920201 + 5292663170
= 883792020
1
45
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
2.75 1012 1 2722651.812

1 529912 + 8837920201 + 5292663170
=
=
(2.75 1012 5445303.61 )(529912 + 8837920201 + 5292663170) 883792020(2.75 1012 1 2722651.812 )

(529912 + 8837920201 + 5292663170)2
2 ,
(. . )( + + ) (. . )
( + + )
(. . ())( + () + ()) (. () . () )
( + () + ())
0.00156
12
1 = ,
=
2.75 1012 1 2722651.812

=
0.0003011
2 529912 + 8837920201 + 52926631702
2.75 1012 2722651.82
0.000301
2 529912 + 883792020 + 52926631702 2
2.75 1012 2722651.82

=
0
2 529912 + 883792020 + 52926631702
2.75 1012 2722651.82

=
2 529912 + 883792020 + 52926631702
46
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
(2.75 1012 2722651.82 )(529912 + 883792020 + 52926631702 )1

2
= (2.75 1012 2722651.82 )

=
(529912 + 883792020 + 52926631702 )1

2
5292663170(2.75 1012 2722651.82 )

(529912 + 883792020 + 52926631702 )2
1 ,
. .
=
( + + )
(. () . () )
=
( + () + ())
0.000446
21 =
2 =
=
3.85 1012 2 22826762.4222

0.0001372
1 88486.66 + 1475788441 + 8837883742
3.85 1012 22826762.422
0.000137
1 88486.66 + 1475788441 + 883788374 1
=
3.85 1012 22826762.422

0
1 88486.66 + 1475788441 + 883788374
3.85 1012 22826762.422

=
1 88486.66 + 1475788441 + 883788374
47
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
= (3.85 1012 22826762.422 )
(88486.66 + 1475788441 + 883788374)1

1
147578844(3.85 1012 22826762.422 )

(88486.66 + 1475788441 + 883788374)2
2 ,
(. . )
=
(. + + )
,
=
(. () . () )
(. + () + ())
0.0000109
22
1 = ,
3.85 1012 2 22826762.4222

=
0.0001372
2 88486.66 + 1475788441 + 8837883742
3.85 1012 2 22826762.4222
0.0001372
2 88486.66 + 147578844 + 8837883742 2
3.85 1012 2 22826762.4222

=
0.000137
2 88486.66 + 147578844 + 8837883742
3.85 1012 2 22826762.4222

2 88486.66 + 147578844 + 8837883742
= 3.85 1012 2 22826762.4222
= 3.85 1012 45653524.842

2
48
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
= 88486.66 + 147578844 + 8837883742
= 883788374
2
3.85 1012 2 22826762.4222
2 88486.66 + 147578844 + 8837883742
=
=
(3.85 1012 45653524.842 )(88486.66 + 147578844 + 883788374 2 ) 883788374 (3.85 1012 2 22826762 .4222 )
(88486.66 + 147578844 + 883788374 2 )2
1 ,
=
(. . )(. + + ) (. . )
(. + + )
.
(. . ())(. + () + ()) (. () . () )
(. + () + ())
0.0142
Calculation for Systems of ODE 2
: (911187, 167804)
,
1
5172955.21
1
=
1
0.0003011
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462

1008895
=
5172955.21 (1008895 1 )
0.0003011
1008895(0.52524 + 8761 + 52462 )
49
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
5.22 1012 1 5172955.212

=
0.0003011
529912 + 8837920201 + 52926631702
2
43370150.882
2
=
1
0.0001372
0.52524 + 8761 + 52462

168469
=
=
43370150.882 (168469 2 )
0.0001372
168469(0.52524 + 8761 + 52462 )
7.31 1012 2 43370150.8822

0.0001372
88486.66 + 1475788441 + 8837883742
Calculation:
11
2 = ,
=
5.22 1012 1 5172955.212

=
0.0003011
1 529912 + 8837920201 + 52926631702
5.22 1012 1 5172955.212
0.0003011
1 529912 + 8837920201 + 5292663170 1
5.22 1012 1 5172955.212

=
0.000301
1 529912 + 8837920201 + 5292663170
5.22 1012 1 5172955.212

1 529912 + 8837920201 + 5292663170
= 5.22 1012 1 5172955.212
= 5.22 1012 10345910.41

1
= 529912 + 8837920201 + 5292663170
= 883792020
1
50
Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
5.22 1012 1 5172955.212

1 529912 + 8837920201 + 5292663170
=
=
(5.22 1012 10345910 .41 )(529912 + 883792020 1 + 5292663170) 883792020 (5.22 1012 1 5172955.212 )
(529912 + 883792020 1 + 5292663170 )2
2 ,
(. . )( + + ) (. . )
( + + )
(. . ())( + () + ()) (. () . () )
( + () + ())
0.00293
12 =
1 = ,
5.22 1012 1 5172955.212

0.0003011
2 529912 + 8837920201 + 52926631702
5.22 1012 5172955.22
0.000301
2 529912 + 883792020 + 52926631702 2
5.22 1012 5172955.22

=
0
2 529912 + 883792020 + 52926631702
=
5.22 1012 5172955.22

2 529912 + 883792020 + 52926631702
(5.22 1012 5172955.22 )(529912 + 883792020 + 52926631702 )1

2
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= (5.22 1012 5172955.22 )

=
(529912 + 883792020 + 52926631702 )1

2
5292663170(5.22 1012 5172955.22 )

(529912 + 883792020 + 52926631702 )2
1 ,
. .
=
( + + )
,
=
. () . ()
( + () + ())
0.000852
21
2 =
=
7.31 1012 2 43370150.8822

=
0.0001372
1 88486.66 + 1475788441 + 8837883742
7.31 1012 43370150.882
0.000137
1 88486.66 + 1475788441 + 883788374 1
=
7.31 1012 43370150.882

0
1 88486.66 + 1475788441 + 883788374
7.31 1012 43370150.882

=
1 88486.66 + 1475788441 + 883788374
= (7.31 1012 43370150.882 )
(88486.66 + 1475788441 + 883788374)1

1
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147578844(7.31 1012 43370150.882 )

=
(88486.66 + 1475788441 + 883788374)2
2 ,
=
(. . )
(. + + )
(. () . () )
=
(. + () + ())
0.00001
22 =
1 = ,
=
7.31 1012 2 43370150.8822

0.0001372
2 88486.66 + 1475788441 + 8837883742
7.31 1012 2 43370150.8822
0.0001372
2 88486.66 + 147578844 + 8837883742 2
=
7.31 1012 2 43370150.8822

0.000137
2 88486.66 + 147578844 + 8837883742
7.31 1012 2 43370150.8822

2 88486.66 + 147578844 + 8837883742
= 7.31 1012 2 43370150.8822
= 7.31 1012 86740301.762

2
= 88486.66 + 147578844 + 8837883742
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= 883788374
2
3.85 1012 2 22826762.4222
2 88486.66 + 147578844 + 8837883742

=
=
(7.31 1012 86740301.762 )(88486.66 + 147578844 + 883788374 2 ) 883788374 (7.31 1012 2 43370150 .8822 )
(88486.66 + 147578844 + 883788374 2 )2
1 ,
=
(. . )(. + + ) (. . )
(. + + )
.
(. . ())(. + () + ()) (. () . () )
(. + () + ())
0.0258
Table 6. Resulting Jacobian Matrices
Systems of ODE 1
=
Systems of ODE 2
0.00156
0.000446
0.0000109
0.0142
Eigenvalues & Eigenvectors
0.00293 0.000852
0.00001 0.00258
a. Eigenvalues
( ) =
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( ) =
1
0.00156
0.000446
(

0.0000109
0.0142
0
0.00156
(
0.0000109
0
) = 0
1
0.000446
) = 0
0.0142
(0.00156 )(0.0142 ) (0.000446)(0.0000109) = 0

2 + 0.01576 + (2.21471386 105 ) = 0
, 2 :
1 = 0.00155962, 2 = 0.0142003

( ) =
1 0
0.00293 0.000852
(

) = 0
0.00001 0.00258
0 1
0.00293
(
0.00001
0.000852
) = 0
0.0258
(0.00293 )(0.0258 ) (0.000852)(0.00001) = 0

2 + 0.02873 + (7.558548 105 ) = 0
, 2 :
1 = 0.00292963, 2 = 0.0258003
b. Eigenvectors
1
( ) = 0
2
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0.00156
0.0000109
0
0.000446 1
=
0.0142 2
0
Eigenvector 1 (denoted by () ): Substituting into the equation
1
0
0.00156 (0.00155962)
0.000446
=
0.0000109
0.0142 (0.00155962) 2
0
1
0
0.00000038
0.000446
=
0.0000109 0.01264038 2
0
0.000000381 0.0004462
0
=
0.00001091 0.012640382
0
2 :
0.000000381 0.0004462 = 0
0.00001091 0.012640382 = 0
This simultaneous equation yielded by the formula of the eigenvector has infinitely
many solutions. This can be proven as shown:
0.000000381 = 0.0004462
0.00001091 = 0.012640382
= 1173.682
1
1 = 1159.662
Both equations yield approximately the same result, meaning that substituting one of
the resulting equations into the eigenvector matrix 1 will yield approximately the same
2
vector.
1 = 1173.682 1 ,
2
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() =
1173.682
= 2
1173.68
The displacement vector for () will therefore be: .
1
0
0.00156 (0.0142003)
0.000446
=
0.0000109
0.0142 (0.0142003) 2
0
0
0.0126403 0.000446 1
=
0.0000109 0.0000003 2
0
0
0.01264031 0.0004462
=
0
0.00001091 + 0.00000032
2 :
0.01264031 0.0004462 = 0
0.00001091 + 0.00000032 = 0
1 = 0.03522
1 = 0.02752
1 = 0.03522 1 ,
2
() =
0.03522
= 2
0.0352

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0.00293
0.00001
0
0.000852 1
=
0.0258 2
0
1
0
0.00293 (0.00292963)
0.000852
=
0.00001
0.0258 (0.00292963) 2
0
0
1
0.00000037
0.000852
=
0.00001
0.02287037 2
0
0.000000371 0.0008522
0
=
0.000011 0.022870372
0
2 :
0.000000371 0.0008522 = 0
0.000011 0.022870372 = 0
= 2302.72
1
1 = 2287.0372
1 = 2302.72 1 ,
2
() =
2302.72
= 2
2302.7
1
0
0.00293 (0.0258003)
0.000852
=
0.00001
0.0258 (0.0258003) 2
0
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0
0.0228703 0.000852 1
=
0.00001 0.0000003 2
0
0.02287031 0.0008522
0
=
0.000011 + 0.00000032
0
2 :
0.02287031 0.0008522 = 0
0.000011 + 0.00000032 = 0
1 = 0.03732
1 = 0.032
1 = 0.03732 1 ,
2
() =
0.03732
= 2
0.0373
c. General Solution for the Stability of the Steady State

() = 1 1 1 + 2 2 2
1 ()
1173.68 0.00155962
0.0352 0.0142003
= 1

+ 2

2 ()
1
1
1 ()
1173.681 0.00155962
0.03522 0.0142003
=
+
2 ()
1 0.00155962
2 0.0142003
1 ()
1173.681 0.00155962 + 0.03522 0.0142003
2 ()
1 0.00155962 + 2 0.0142003
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Solutions:
1 () = 1173.681 0.00155962 + 0.03522 0.0142003
2 () = 1 0.00155962 + 2 0.0142003
With the solutions formulated, the stability of the steady state will be checked using
its limits to infinity. If lim () = 0, then the steady state is stable as the initial
perturbation shrinks in magnitude, returning to the equilibrium point. If lim () ,
then the steady state is unstable as the perturbation grows in magnitude.
,
a. lim 1 ()
= lim 1173.681 0.00155962 + 0.03522 0.0142003
1173.681 0.03522
+ 0.0142003
0.00155962
= lim
lim
1173.681 0.03522
+
0+0
b. lim 2 ()
= lim 1 0.00155962 + 2 0.0142003
1
0.00155962
= lim
2
0.0142003
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lim
1 2
+

0+0
0
(829952, 167239)
() = 1 1 1 + 2 2 2
1 ()
2302.7 0.00292963
0.0373 0.0258003
= 1

+ 2

2 ()
1
1
1 ()
2302.71 0.00292963
0.03732 0.00292963
=
2 ()
1 0.0258003
2 0.0258003
1 ()
2302.71 0.00292963 + 0.03732 0.00292963
=
2 ()
1 0.0258003 + 2 0.0258003
Solutions:
1 () = 2302.71 0.00292963 + 0.03732 0.00292963
2 () = 1 0.0258003 + 2 0.0258003 .
,
a. lim 1 ()
= lim 2302.71 0.00292963 + 0.03732 0.00292963
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0.03732
2302.71
+ 0.00292963
0.00292963
= lim
lim
2302.71 0.03732
+
0+0
b. lim 2 ()
= lim 1 0.0258003 + 2 0.0258003
= lim
0.0258003
0.0258003
lim
1 2
+

0+0
0
(911187, 167804)
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XII. Phase Portrait of the Dynamics

It was proven that both equilibrium points are stable and thus, the population number
will remain in those steady states in the long-term. The phase portrait 60 will now be sketched
using PPlane in gaining insight into the resulting dynamics for each condition.
Systems of ODE 1
Fig. 9 Phase portrait of the dynamics of Systems of ODE 1 using PPlaneby John C. Polking, the blue integrand
curves represent the dynamics of the population, the green arrows represent the directional vectors yield by the
differential equations, and the red dot where the integrand lines meet is the equilibrium point (which has been
proven to be a stable steady state)
60
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Systems of ODE 2
Fig. 10 Phase portrait of the dynamics of Systems of ODE 2 using PPlane by John C. Polking
As seen from the phase portraits, the dynamics resulting from both feeding methods
are similar, where any population number will grow/ shrink in reaching the steady state. This
unique dynamics is termed the Stable Node, resulting from two negative real
eigenvalues.
XIII. Feeding Method Evaluation
The dynamics in the phase portrait suggests that N. tilapia and G. gouramis
population number will always end up nearing the stable steady states 61, meaning that both
species are able to coexist in the long-term. Thus the criterion which will be used in judging
for the better feeding habit will be the stable steady state providing more population
number for both species to survive. Using the criterion, it can be concluded that feeding
61
(829952, 167239) and (911187, 167804) for Systems of ODE 1 and 2, respectively
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an excess amount of pellets yield greater survivability for both fish species within their
inter-specific competition.
XIV. Conclusion
In this study, mathematical models for evaluating the feeding method yielding better
survival for N. tilapia & G. gourami within their inter-specific competition was developed
from a simple model in equation [1]. Due to the simplicity of the model, further modification
was implemented, yielding equation [3]. After that, the parameters listed in Table 1. was
determined using various data I collected.
With the finalized model in equation [11] & [12], I then conducted a graphical
analysis in deducing the existence of the population in the long-term. This analysis involves
determining the steady states along with classifying each in the flow-pattern & null-cline
analysis. The equilibrium points, which are the steady states suspected to be stable in the
flow-pattern analysis, was analyzed further. This stability analysis involves the calculation of
Jacobian Matrices, Eigenvalues, Eigenvectors, and determination of the Generalized
Solution for the magnitude of perturbation on the steady state over time. These graphical
methods are the mathematical basis for sketching the computerized dynamics, the phase
portrait.
The findings in the phase portrait revealed that both feeding methods led both
species to coexist in the long-term. Using the criterion formulated in the research question, it
is concluded that overfeeding 62 is a better feeding habit in this case.
XV. Limitations & Recommendations
62
Please refer to the definition of overfeeding in the introduction
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The model used is simplistic in comparison to the real environment, where other
possible factors such as climate change does not take into account. Many assumptions were
also made, which might yield a different dynamics if the assumptions were not set (especially
with the quasi-steady state assumption). As a matter of fact, this model could not solely be
used as a tool for deducing the populations survivability in the long-term due to the results
being only deduced mathematically. Lastly, a more realistic model for this case is actually a
4-Dimensional model, in accordance to the research question that the amount of pellets to be
supplied must exactly be in the same amount as the necessity of the population, implying
that the change in parameter over time is directly proportional to the change in the
population number of both fish. Therefore, is supposed to be another state variable,
resulting in the following systems of equation:
= 1 1 2 2 [21]

1
1
= 1 1 1 1 1 1 [21]
1
2 = 1 2 [21]
2 2
2
2 2

2
1
2
[21]
1
2

A 4-Dimensional null-cline or numerical methods is open to be investigated in

deducing a more relevant conclusion to this case.
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Widodo, M. Personal Interview. 25 October 2015
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ecay%20of%20fish%20pellets&f=false,
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Jefferson Widodo
002115 0038
Mathematics HL
Krishna, R. (n.d). Taylor Series and Analytic Functions. Retrieved 21 November 2015, from
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Masrizal.,Udin, Z., Zein, M., &Bulanin, U. (2015). Effect of Energy, Lipid and Protein
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Gourami (Ospheronemusgouramy Lac).Pakistan Journal of Nutrition. Retrieved 19
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Unknown Author. (n.d). KENYA DEVELOPMENT OF TILAPIA FEEDS. Retrieved 19

October 2015, from http://www.fao.org/docrep/field/003/AC581E/AC581E03.htm
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69
Jefferson Widodo
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Appendix 1: Proof for the Equations

1. Solution of Exponential Growth Model Equation
() =
The amount of population of a species as a function of time , written as (), is defined as

the definite integral 63 of the ODE
time 0 until . (as 0)
representing the rate of change of population from the
With the definition above, the calculation is as follows:
Using separable variable, we obtain:
1
=
Integrating with respect to the new variables using a definite integral of time 0until ,
1
=
|()| =
0
0
|()| |(0)| = 0
()

=
(0)
For ease of calculation, (0) = 0
()
=
(0)
Rearranging the equation, we obtain:
63
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() = 0 64
63F
2. Jacobian Matrix
1

= 1
2
2
2
First, the analogy which can be applied for the linearization of steady state is: Lets
say we want to approximate the value of 9.38 without using calculator at hand. We know
that 9 = 3, and thus the value of 9.38 can roughly be approximated, which is nearing to 3.
However, to be able to approximate a more specific value for 9.38, we need to use Taylor
expansion which is defined as follows:
( ) ( )
( )
() =
!
=0
Where is the point with a known value (in this case, 9, which equals to 3) and
being the point with the value to be found using the Taylor expansion function (in this
case,9.38). The same logic applies to linearizing or approximating the dynamics of the
neighborhood of the steady states, which is the value of
and
at an infinitesimally
small displacement = . In the case of the steady state, the value of is the value
of the steady state, which is when the value of
and
equals to 0. For this investigation,
an easy approximation of the function () is obtained by only incorporating the first-order
Taylor expansion of the function () in the neighborhood of = , which is formulated
as follows:
64
deRoos, A. (2014, Dec 17). Modeling Population Dynamics. 27 September 2015. Retrieved from
71
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() = ( ) + ( ) ( )
The function () is a linearized function as ( ) and have constant values,
which results in only being the variable. The function () in this case represents
which is a directional vector notation for the dynamics
. For a function of two variables
(1 , 2 ), the function for evaluating the dynamics for the neighborhood of a particular
steady state (1 , 2 ) is approximated as:
(1 , 2 )
(1 , 2 )
(1 1 ) +
(2 2 )
(1 , 2 ) = (1 , 2 ) +
1
2
As this method to check the stability of the steady state requires an infinitesimally
small displacement away from the steady state, the displacement is defined algebraically as
follows:
() = ()
Where () is the amount of the population at a particular time . The dynamics of the small
displacement is the one being investigated, and it is outlined using its derivatives:
() (() ) () ()
()
=
=
=
0=
As at the steady state , the value of

Hence, it was proven that
()
()
= 0.
. Therefore, the notation can be rewritten as:
= ()
Using the definition of the small displacement from the steady state,
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= ( + )
Using Taylor expansion (as the displacement is very small), we can approximate the function
as a first-degree polynomial as:
As ( ) = 0
= () = ( ) + ( )
= ( )
The vector notation for the directional vectors for the dynamics of the perturbation can be
expressed as:
1
=
2
Therefore, the approximated function for the neighborhood of the steady state can be written
in its vector notation as:
( )
1

2
1
2 (1
(
2
2
2
1

2
1
1 )
2 )
2 1

2 2
2
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The Jacobian Matrix is the term =
1

2
2

2
, evaluated at the steady state (1 , 2 ).
The derivation using the Taylor expansion above is referred to as the local
linearization of the dynamics, as the function formulated above only approximates the value
1
of the displacement 2 at the neighborhood of the steady state, which is at infinitesimally
small displacement from the steady state (1 , 2 ).

3. Eigenvalue & Eigenvector
de t( ) = 0
( ) 1 = 0
2
For a linearized ODE, the solution for the ODE is in exponential form (which is often
termed trial solution), based on the derivation carried out above.
() =
1 (0)
Where =
, which is the vector notation for the initial perturbation.
(0)
2
Previously, we have determined that
()
= 2 = .
Substituting the trial solution equation into the equation

obtain:
()
= 2 = , we
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is a vector notation and therefore it cannot be cancelled out. However, the equation can be
expressed as:
= 0
( ) = 0
Where is the identity matrix
1
0
0
, as itself is only a constant and is a matrix
1
(Jacobian Matrix). To be able to be substracted, the term , should be transformed into a

matrix using the identity matrix . In order to satisfy the equation, the vector can be set to
00 . However, as in this step we are about to study the dynamics of the perturbation, therefore
a zero displacement is excluded (as zero displacement implies that the steady state is stable
already, we need to reconsider another cases). Therefore, we need to reconsider the term
( ) to be set to zero, using the equation:
( ) =
By using this equation, we obtained the eigenvalue as the characteristics growth
rate. Having found the constant , we return to the equation ( ) = 0 , and the
eigenvector can be found by solving the matrix equation:
75

( ) 1 = 0
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1
The vector is the eigenvector, which is usually written using the notation .
2
Eigenvectors represent the direction of the resulting dynamics from the eigenvalues
(characteristic growth rate) in the phase plane.
4. General Solution for the Stability of the Steady State
() =
1 ()
= 1 1 1 + 2 2 2
2 ()
As this method to check the stability of the steady state requires an infinitesimally
small displacement away from the steady state, the displacement is defined algebraically as
follows:
() = ()
Where () is the amount of the population at a particular time . The dynamics of the small
displacement is the one being investigated, and it is outlined using its derivatives:
() (() ) () ()
()
=
=
=
0=
As at the steady state , the value of

Hence, it was proven that
()
()
= 0.
. Therefore, the notation can be rewritten as:
= ()
Using the definition of the small displacement from the steady state,
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= ( + )
Using Taylor expansion (as the displacement is very small), we can approximate the function
as a first-degree polynomial as:
As ( ) = 0
= () = ( ) + ( )
= ( )
This final form is a linear ODE (as ( ) is a constant), taking the exponential form of
= . Therefore, the solution for the ODE follows the solution of an exponential growth
model, which is () = 0
Adapting to the form of the ODE above, we obtain the solution:

() = (0)
( )
In this case, ( ) becomes the characteristic growth for the exponential growth rate.
( )is, indeed, the eigenvalue , this is the reason why eigenvalues are being called
characteristic growth rate, and the solution is the characteristic equation for the stability
of the steady state. Therefore, the equation can be rewritten as:
() = (0)
(0) here is a vector notation outlining the initial perturbation for both 1 and 2
governed by the eigenvectors (which has been derived in the previous section). It is defined
as follows:
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(0) = 1 (1) + 2 (2)
Where the constants 1 and 2 are unique value for a specific initial perturbation
(0), which are found by solving the equation above. Using this definition, the equation
will be substituted to the equation of (), yielding the general solution for the
perturbation:
() = (0)
= (1 (1) + 2 (2) )
= 1 (1) + 2 (2)
Appendix 2: Glossary of Key Terms Used
1. Birth (natality) & Death rate (mortality) per capita: The number of absolute birth rate
() /death rate () in a population divided by the total number of population (Simply,
the birth or death rate per individual in a population)

Additional Information
Conceptually, the per capita birth and death rate () and () can be also be
defined as a probability per unit time. This means that in a time interval of 0, an
individual has a chance to die or being born equal to () and (), respectively.
Therefore, the time for birth or death to occur on average will be
()
and
()
respectively.
In other words, both of these terms can be expressed as expected lifespan of

individuals in the population. On the other hand,
()
()
for
can be expressed as the average time
between two consecutive times at which a particular individual gives birth. 65
65
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2. Carrying Capacity: The maximum, equilibrium number of organisms of a particular

species that can be supported indefinitely in a given environment. 66
3. Coexistence: A state in which two or more species are able to exist together at the same
time and/ or place within a particular condition.
4. Competition: Symbiotic relationship arising between or among living things for resources, such
as food, space, shelter, mate, ecological status, etc. 67
5. Density-Dependence: The process in which the growth of a population is regulated by the

population size of its own species or another species. 68
6. Definite Integral: The area under the curve of a particular function in a given interval
7. Differential Equations: An equation that relates an unknown function to one or more of
its derivatives. 69 Differential equations which only involve first order derivatives is termed
Ordinary Differential Equation (abbreviated ODE).
8. Ecosystem: Biotic (living) and abiotic (non-living) components within a particular area,
interacting with each other and with the environment.
9. Interspecific Competition: A form of competition which occurs among individuals of

different species.
66
Unknown Author.(n.d). Dictionary.com Unabridged. 23 September 2015. Retrieved from

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/carrying capacity
67
Unknown Author. (2010, 27 April). Competition. 6 September 2015. Retrieved from
http://www.biology-online.org/dictionary/Competition)
68
Boundless. (2015, Sept 15). Density-Dependent and Density-Independent Population Regulation.
Retrieved 27 September 2015, from https://www.boundless.com/biology/textbooks/boundless-biologytextbook/population-and-community-ecology-45/environmental-limits-to-population-growth-251/densitydependent-and-density-independent-population-regulation-931-12187/
69
Sponsoredwalk. (2011, Apr 15). Definition of a Differential Equation?. Retrieved 14 November

2015, from http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/33153/definition-of-a-differential-equation
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10. Isoclines/ Null-clines: Set of population sizes at which the rate of change of population of
a particular species within an interaction to another species is zero. (Mathematically, it is
calculated as the solution to the equation
= 0)
11. Mortality: Please refer to Birth (natality) & Death rate (mortality) per capita
12. Natality: Please refer to Birth (natality) & Death rate (mortality) per capita
11. Phase Plane: Visual representation used for analyzing the qualitative behavior of a
particular differential equation, with the axes representing the state variables.
12. Phase Portrait: A geometrical representation of the resulting trajectory of a dynamical
system.
13. Population: The total number of individuals inhabiting a particular area.
14. Population Growth: The change in population over a period of time.
15. Population Density: The number of individuals living per unit area; the number of
individuals relative to the space occupied by them. 70
16. Parameter: The quantities characterizing a population dynamics system which do not
change
over
time.
(Eg:
&, ,
) 71
17. Perturbation: In the context of population dynamics, perturbation is a slight change of

() on the amount of the population from its stable steady state. The change will then be
70
Unknown Author. (n.d). Dictionary.coms 21st Century Lexicon. 26 September 2015. Retrieved from
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/population_density
71
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used to assess the stability of the steady state, both from intuitive insight on the phase plane
and also using the solution of the stability of steady state derived from the eigenvalues and
eigenvectors of the stable point/ steady state.
18. Solution of Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) in the population model: Refers to
determining the amount of population at a given period of time as a function of time.
19. State Variable: The quantities characterizing a population dynamics system which
changes
over
time.
(Eg:
, ) 72
20. Steady State: In population dynamics, steady-state can be computed as the intersection of
the null-clines (Solution of the equation
= 0). Asteady-state system is when a population
dynamics system functions with no apparent change or fluctuation; all subsystems
continually reinforce each other 73 (i.e. The increase and the decline of a population occurs in
a cycle which maintains the equilibrium amount of population within its existence in a
particular area of living, among species)
21. Symbiosis: In biology, it is defined as the relationship arising between two different kinds
of living things that live together and depend on each other. 74
72
Loc. cit.
Polgar, S. (1975).Population, Ecology, and Social Evolution.Google Books. Retrieved 26 September
2015,
from
https://books.google.co.id/books?id=R1S1BwAAQBAJ&pg=PA277&dq=steady+state+population+ecology+de
finition&source=bl&ots=2707DQC8-m&sig=es3XKAA7Z_pYrPDiiLtdvFeRzY&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CC4Q6AEwB2oVChhMIwOie0PW#v=onepage&q&f=false
74
Unknown Author. (n.d). symbiosis | biology : the relationship between two different kinds of living
things that live together and depend on each other. Retrieved 21 November 2015, from http://www.merriamwebster.com/dictionary/symbiosis
73
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Appendix 3: Pellet Properties Investigation

The investigation carried out in this section will be focusing on determining some of the
properties of the pellets necessary for determining the constants of the differential equations
for the population growth model. The properties which are going to be determined are as
follows:
a. The mass of individual pellet
b. Radius of individual pellet
c. Decay time of individual pellet
The brand of the fish food pellet which is going to be used for
the purpose of this research is PakanIkan Koi.
Experiment 1: Determining the mass of individual pellet
Material(s) &Apparatus(es):
Digital weight scale
A handful amount of pellets (50 grams of pellets)
Tray
Fig. II The fish food pellet brand,

PakanIkan Koi
Procedure:
1. First, prepare all the materials needed.
2. After that, place the tray on the top of the digital scale.
3. Next, in order to neglect the mass of the tray itself from the measurement, after putting the
tray on the top of the digital scale set the mass number on the digital scale to zero with the
button on the digital weight scale.
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4. Then pour the pellets onto the tray and observe the total mass of the poured pellets.
5. Finally, count the amount of pellets on the tray in order to calculate the weight of
individual pellets. The mass of individual pellet can be calculated using the formula below:
Data collected
= 50
= 2915
Calculation
=
=
50
2915
= 0.017157
Experiment 2: Determining the radius of individual pellet
Each pellet is modeled as a sphere, in which therefore the radius is to be measured in
this experiment.
Ruler
A pellet
Scissor or knife or other cutting utensils
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Procedure:
2 Next, using the cutting utensil prepared, cut the pellet into half.
3. Then, measure the diameter of the cut pellet using the ruler.
4. Finally, with the diameter of the pellet known, the radius can be calculated using the
formula below:
=
Data collected
= 0.5
Calculation
=
=
0.5
2
= 0.25
Experiment 3: Determining the decay time of individual pellet
A handful amount of pellets (100 pellets)
A bowl
Water (with a constant temperature of 20)

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Procedure:
2. Next, pour a handful amount of pellets into the bowl (100 pellets is recommended as it
would ease in determining the probability of the occurrence, which is out of 100- 1 pellet
decaying represent the probability figure of 0.01)
3. Then, pour in water into the bowl until it fills of the bowls capacity.
4. Finally, observe the decay of the pellets regularly, within a particular time period. For this
investigation, a pellet is said to have been decayed if the pellet could no longer be seen as a
whole. Therefore, the whole pellet is the one being counted and thus, the decaying pellets
( ) can be determined by subtracting the amount of whole pellets in the time 1 (last
observation on the number of whole pellets) from the amount of whole pellets in the time
(the current observation on the number of whole pellets). It is mathematically formulated as:
= 1
:
= 1 <
1 = 1
=
Therefore having calculated , the probability of occurrence can be determined using the
mathematical formula to determine the probability below:
( = ) =
0
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( = ) =
0 =
Fig. III The pellets being simmered in a bowl filled with water, the pellets which
are still in whole still floats on the surface of the water
Data Collected
Given that the initial amount of pellets in this experiment is at an amount of 100 pellets, the
formula for the probability can further be modified as:
( = ) =
100
Using the probability formula, here is the probability distribution for the decay phenomenon:
Table I. Probability Distribution Table for the Time of Decay for the Pellets
()
0 <
2
17
24
17
< 1
24
38
1 <
38
31
24
31
41
<
24
24
18
41
45
<
24
24
4
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( = )
0.02
0.38
0.38
0.18
0.04
Appendix 4: Exponential Growth Model & Logistic Growth Model

This section will be providing the basic knowledge for the fundamental models which
are being used for this research. The two fundamental models to be discussed in this section
would be exponential growth model and logistic growth model. In the context of
population dynamics modeling, both works in the same manner as the mathematical
operators, which are addition, substraction, multiplication, and division; both models as a
matter of fact, are the most fundamental models from which complicated models in the
population dynamics are being derived from. Both models are derived conceptually, based on
the underlying ecological concepts involved.
The measurement of how the size of a population changes over time is called
the population growth rate, and it depends upon the population size, natality, mortality, and
other possible factors contributing to the change. As long as there are enough resources
available within where a particular species lives, there will be an increase in the number of
individuals in a population over time, or a positive growth rate. 75The underlying ecological
concept is then being used as the fundamental concept for one of the simplest population
growth model, which is the exponential growth model. The exponential growth model is a
fundamental model from where Logistic Growth Model was developed from and it is
modeled using this differential equation:
= [1]76
Where:
75
September
graph.html
76
Swafford, A.L. (n.d). Logistic Population Growth: Equation, Definition & Graph. Retrieved 23
2015, from http://study.com/academy/lesson/logistic-population-growth-equation-definitionPlease refer to the derivation in Appendix 1
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Where
being the rate of growth of the population, the parameter being the rate
of increase of the population (which is the difference between the per capita natality and
mortality of the population 77), and state variable 78 79 being the amount of population at a
given amount of time. Therefore, the interpretation for this equation would be The rate of
change of a particular population will increase directly proportional towards the amount of
population of the species at a given time period. The amount of population at the given
amount of time can be determined by determining the solution from the differential equation
above. The equation of the solution is given below:
() = 0 [2]80
In reality, the exponential growth model is considered to be irrelevant as most
populations cannot continue to grow in reaching the population number as
because they will eventually run out of water, food, sunlight, space or other resources which
exist within the environment (to be able to understand how the growth of the population
density varies with time, see Fig. IV). With the resources beginning to run out, population
growth will start to slow down.
When the growth rate of a population decreases as the population density increases
with a rise in the number of individuals (due to the increase in the amount of necessary
resources to be consumed with more individuals existing), this is called logistic population
growth. 81 The logistic growth equation can be derived using the concept of density-
77

Loc. cit.
79
is the value of () at a given amount of time
80
81
Swafford, A.L. (n.d). Logistic Population Growth: Equation, Definition & Graph. Retrieved 23
September 2015, from http://study.com/academy/lesson/logistic-population-growth-equation-definitiongraph.html
78
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dependence in ecology, however the derivation wont be provided due to the explanation
being out of the scope of this essay.
The logistic population growth is modeled using this equation:
= (1 ) [3]82
Where:
Where the parameter of the natural rate of increase is obtained from = ,
parameter being the carrying capacity or the maximum population size which can exist
within a particular area due to the limited amount of resources which is able to exist within an
environment.
The behavior of the logistic growth model is first exponential when the population
size 0 and then as , the population growth will reach 0. (Given that the
population number starts from a small initial population 0). If the initial population
starts from a large population size 0 > , the population size will decline until it reaches the
carrying capacity 83. The qualitative behavior of the model is quite relevant, in the sense
that a population starting with a small amount of individuals initially, will eventually grow
into its maximum population density84, and carrying capacity .
The graph below shows how realistic the logistic growth model is in comparison to
the exponential growth model.
82

84
83
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Fig. IV The comparison between exponential growth population model to the logistic
growth population model
Appendix 5: Specification of the Pond & the Interview Conducted with Mr. Markus
Name of the interviewer: Jefferson Widodo
Interviewee: Markus Widodo
Date & Place of Interview: 25 October 2015, Jl. Manyar Kertoarjo 51
The specifications of the pond is being investigated in order to determine the volume of the
pond for determining the carrying capacity 1 and 2 . The
sophisticated geometry of the pond is being simplified as a

cylinder (not considering the middle pole). The interview
question being asked is as follows:
Interview Question:
What are the specifications (depth and diameter) of the
pond?
Answer:
The rough diameter of the pond is approximately 4 metres
Fig. V The Geometrical Shape of the Pond
and a depth of approximately 2.3 metres
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Appendix 6: Primary & Secondary Data for the Parameter Calculation

Initial amount of population to be used in this research: 85
1 (0) = 100
2 (0) = 7
Weight of each pellet:

1 0.017157 ( 5 )86
N. tilapia broodstock consumption: 1.5 3% of its weight per feeding 87

G. gourami broodstock consumption: 3 5 % of its weight per feeding 88
Average weight of individual broodstock N. tilapia: 500 gram89
Average weight of individual broodstock G. gourami: 1500 gram90
Here are some data collected regarding the reproduction of N. tilapia:
0 Initial number of broodstock: 1
Number of eggs brood by females (per reproduction): 2000 eggs 91
85
The data is based on the real-life situation (primary data)

Please refer to the experiment in Appendix 3
87
Unknown Author.(n.d). Feeding Tilapia in Intensive Recirculating Systems. Retrieved 20 October
2015, from http://www.ncrac.org/NR/rdonlyres/574B353A-B11F-4DD7-8A87-23E708DE95A0/0/ncrac114.pdf
86
88
Brian Cole, M.S., Clyde S. Tamaru, Ph.D., & Richard Bailey, B.A. (1999) A Manual for Commercial
Production of the Gourami, TrichogasterTrichopterus, A Temporary Paired Spawner. Retrieved 20 October
2015, from http://www.ctsa.org/files/publications/CTSA_1356317779375285017721.pdf
89
Unknown Author.(n.d). KENYA DEVELOPMENT OF TILAPIA FEEDS. Retrieved 19 October 2015,

from http://www.fao.org/docrep/field/003/AC581E/AC581E03.htm
90
Masrizal.,Udin, Z., Zein, M., &Bulanin, U. (2015). Effect of Energy, Lipid and Protein Content in
Broodstock Diets on Spawning Fecundity and Eggs Quality of Giant Gourami (Ospheronemusgouramy
Lac).Pakistan Journal of Nutrition. Retrieved 19 October 2015, from http://www.pjbs.org/pjnonline/fin3181.pdf
91
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() Total individuals by the time the offspring becomes broodstocks: 2001

individuals
Hatching period: 4-5 days (However, 5 days is taken into account as it guarantee most
of the eggs having hatched already) 92
Time until the fish become sexually mature (becoming a broodstock): 5-10 months
300 days (10 months is being taken as it guarantees most of the fish becoming mature
already) 93
Total time to maturity: 300 + 5 = 305
Here are some data collected regarding the reproduction of G. gourami:
0 Initial number of broodstock: 1
Number of eggs brood by females (per reproduction): 600 eggs 94

() Total individuals by the time the offspring becomes broodstocks: 601
individuals
Hatching period: 24-36 hours 1.5 day (Again, 1.5 day is taken into account as it
guarantee most of the eggs being hatched already) 95
Time until the fish become sexually mature (becoming a broodstock): 6 months 180
days 96
Total time to maturity: 180 + 1.5 = 181.5

91
Unknown Author. (2007). Oreochromis niloticus - Nile Tilapia. Retrieved 22 October 2015, from
http://el.erdc.usace.army.mil/ansrp/ANSIS/html/oreochromis_niloticus_nile_tilapia.htm
92
Loc.cit
93
Loc. cit.
Butler, R. (n.d). Common Gourami, Giant
Osphronemus
goramy.
Retrieved
22
94
95
Loc.cit.
96
Loc. cit.
Gourami, Gourami, True

October
2015,
Gourami
from
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Jefferson Widodo
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Lifespan of N. tilapia and G. gourami:
1 = 9 97
96F
2 = 20 98
97F
97
Unknown Author. (2014, Jan 13). Nile tilapia (Oreochromisniloticus) longevity, ageing, and life
history.
Retrieved
20
October
2015,
from
http://genomics.senescence.info/species/entry.php?species=Oreochromis_niloticus
98
Butler, R. (n.d). Common Gourami, Giant

Osphronemusgoramy.
Retrieved
22
Gourami,
October
Gourami, True
2015,
Gourami
from
93

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Extended Essay

Mathematics Higher Level

Candidate Name: Jefferson Widodo

Abstract: 288 words

Please refer to the definition in Appendix 2

I. Introduction to Population Dynamics Modeling

The time unit used is in days

Unknown Author.(n.d). Population Models. 24

1. Looking for an appropriate mathematical model for the situation. An appropriate

quantitative/numerical method (e.g: Numerical integration). Geometric insight, by means

Please refer to the definition in Appendix 2

contributing to its changes in quantity with respect to time.

, with each outlining factors

Theoretically, the state variable quantities are inter-dependent. 1 , within a particular

Please refer to Appendix 3

Consider one of the simplest resource interspecific competition growth model14:

Table 1.State Variables & Parameters interpretation for the model

and reduction by , 1 1 , and 2 2 . , represents the reduction in the amount

of pellets due to pellet decay. , represents the reduction in the amount of

input and the reduction in the number of N. tilapia by . ,

de Boer, R. (n.d). Modeling Population Dynamics: a Graphical Approach. 24 September 2015.

represents the consumption-dependent natality, linking the variation in N. tilapias

interact directly towards . However, their competition interaction is being linked

, through the expressions and .

, with similar explanation, the change in the population number of G. gourami

over time is governed by the consumption-dependent natality and the

= , where is the natural rate of increase governed by the

input and the reduction factor, the equation

= 1 1 1 1 1 takes a similar form with

= (1 1 1 )1 , where = 1 1 1 . Referring to the

limitation of the exponential growth model as 15, the concept of density-dependence

Please refer to Appendix 4

environment. This equation will be incorporated into the consumption-dependent natality

Please refer to the definition in Appendix 2

as consumption rate per day and are mathematically defined as:

Constant 2: ()/ (See Appendix 6)

Therefore, is mathematically defined as:

= 1 1 (0) + 2 2 (0) [5]

For Systems of ODE 1:

= 876 100 + 5246 7

is therefore calculated as:

= 1 1 (0) + 2 2 (0) [5]

= 1750 100 + 8744 7

Constant 3: 1 &2 22 (See Appendix 6)

Please refer to the definition in Appendix 2

Constant 4: 1 & 2 25 (See Appendix 6)

Please refer to the definition in Appendix 2

solution of the exponential growth model: 27

Please refer to the derivation in Appendix 1

(181.5) = 1 181 .52

|601| = | 181 .52 |

Constant 5: 1 & 2 28 (See Appendix 3, 5, and 6)

Please refer to the definition in Appendix 2

pellets)- the interpretation of uses this assumption.

Each pellet is modeled as a sphere

Constant 6: (See Appendix 3)

investigations scope. An alternative approach will involve probability distribution model,

Time for breakdown of pellets is normally distributed

Mean breakdown time is estimated using the equation:

In this investigation, the distribution is not assumed to be normal; instead the

Kennedy, V. (1980).Estuarine Perspectives.Google Books. Retrieved 22 October 2015, from

Time for Pellet Decay

y = -0.35x5 + 5.916x4 - 34.25x3 + 71.58x2 - 16.9x - 24

Having constructed the histogram, the probability density function () will be