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Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort
INDICATORS

prices, or that uses an average true


range (ATR) volatility factor. I have
found that a combination of both
methods makes a good indicator.

High-low zigzag

In Figure 1 you see an example of a


zigzag between the lowest low and
highest high levels at the turning
points. The minimum change required
in this example is the sum of a 3%
price change and a three-period ATR
multiplied by a factor of 1.5.
I call this zigzag indicator SVEHLZZperc and use NinjaTraders
NinjaScript to implement it. I keep
the last lowest low value in parameter
ll and the last highest high value in
parameter hh. I need to store the bar
position of this highest high or lowest
low value. To do this, I use the last
highest bar lhb and last lowest bar llb
as the parameters.

Programming the zigzag


Here are all the parameters I use:

Riding The Zigzags

The 1-2-3 Wave Count

In this second part of a seven-article series, find out about the 1-2-3 wave count
system thats part of the indicator rules for a swing trading strategy (IRSTS).

by Sylvain Vervoort
have found that about 99% of the time, any move in the financial markets is
composed of three or more up or down waves. The 1-2-3 wave count is based
on this finding. To help count these waves, I will introduce a high-low zigzag
indicator that is based on a fixed-percent price change between high and low
Copyright Technical Analysis Inc.

n
n
n

ZZPercent = 5: the zigzag percentage used (default value is 5)


ATRPeriod = 5: the ATR lookback
period (default is 5)

ATRFactor = 1.5: the ATR multiplication factor (default is 1.5)


zigZagColor = Color.DodgerBlue: the default color used for
the zigzag
linewidth = 1: the line width of
the zigzag
trend: trend of current zigzag line
(1=up, -1=down)
lhb: last highest bar count since
last swing high
uplineid: last-used up line id
name

llb: last lowest bar count since


last swing low
downlineid: last-used down line
id name
hh: new higher high
ll: new lower low

HLPivot: the high-low pivot


reverse level.

WILLIAM L. BROWN

Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort

3
2

1
1
3

NINJATRADER

FIGURE 1: HIGH-LOW ZIGZAG. Here you see an example of a zigzag between the lowest low and highest high levels at the turning points.

I will begin with a special action for the first two data bars
I store the last low and high price to find out if prices are
moving up or down.
if (CurrentBar < 1) // minimum 2 bars required
{
ll = Low[0];
hh = High[0];
llb = lhb = 0;
return;
}
if (CurrentBar < 2) // trend start based on bar 2
{
if (High[0] >= hh)
{
hh = High[0];
lhb = 1;
trend = 1;
}
else
{
ll = Low[0];
llb = 1;
trend = -1;
}
uplineid = downlineid = CurrentBar;
}

To profit from price volatility in the zigzag, I use J. Welles


Wilders ATR to create a volatility factor based on a lookback
period and multiplication factor.
You can draw the zigzag on a fixed high-low percentage
swing, or on the ATR volatility, or on a combination of percentage swings and price volatility. The HLPivot parameter
is influenced by either the zigzag percentage used, or by the
ATR period and factor, or by both the percent and ATR settings. If the ATR factor is set to zero, then the percent setting
will be taken into account. If the zigzag percent is set to zero,
the volatility setting will be used.

// ATR factor = 0, only use percent setting


if (ATRFactor == 0)

HLPivot = (ZZPercent*0.01);
// Zigzag percent = 0, only use ATR
else if (ZZPercent == 0)

HLPivot = ATR(ATRPeriod)[0]/Close[0]*ATRFactor;
// Use both influences
else HLPivot = ZZPercent*0.01 + ATR(ATRPeriod)[0]/
Close[0]*ATRFactor;

If price is in an uptrend and the new high price is higher


than or equal to the previous high, the up zigzag line to the
new high will be redrawn.
// trend is up, look for a new high or a new swing low
if (trend > 0)
{
if (High[0] >= hh)
{

// new higher high detected

hh = High[0];

lhb = CurrentBar;

// RemoveDrawObject(uplineid.ToString);

// Not required, handled by drawing line with the
same name id

DrawLine(uplineid.ToString(), AutoScale, CurrentBar-llb, ll,

CurrentBar-lhb, hh, zigZagColor, DashStyle.Solid, linewidth);
}

If there is a new higher high or equal high, then hh will take


the new high value, and the last highest bar, lhb, will have the
current bar count value. The line that was drawn previously
will need to be removed because you will use the same name
for this line section. NinjaTrader will automatically remove the
previous line. The parameter Uplineid identifies this line, which
is the current bar count of the start of a new swing high or low.
The line uses the autoscale setting on the vertical price axis. It

Copyright Technical Analysis Inc.

Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort
INDICATORS

If the last low price


is lower than the
last high price minus
the reversal zigzag
setting HLPivot, the
low price is stored as
the last low and the
current bar count is
stored in the last
low bar.

1
2

1
2
3
FIGURE 2: THREE WAVES. Ninety-nine percent of the time, there is a minimum of three waves in any up or down
move. The move starts with wave 1; wave 2 is a correction; and wave 3 is a continuation of the move beyond the
top or bottom of wave 1.

0.00% (11.34)

23.60% (10.98)
38.20% (10.76)
50.00% (10.58)
61.80% (10.39)
76.40% (10.17)

If the last low price is lower than


the last high price minus the reversal
zigzag setting HLPivot, the low price is stored as the last low
and the current bar count is stored in the last low bar. The
parameter downlineid takes the current bar count as the name
for the new zigzag sector line.
Since the trend has switched from an uptrend to a downtrend,
you set the value for the trend to -1 and start drawing the initial
segment of the new down zigzag line. You would use similar
programming to switch from a downtrend to an uptrend.
The complete NinjaScript file (SVEHLZZperc.zip) containing the code can be downloaded from the Stocks &
Commodities website at www.traders.com/files/VervoortNinjaTrader.html or from my website, www.stocata.org.

The basic count

The 1-2-3 wave count is based on a limited


number of rules:

100.00% (9.81)
FIGURE 3: CORRECTION LEVELS. A smaller wave 2 correction will be a Fibonacci
retracement between 23.6% and 50%. Larger corrections retrace up to a 76.4%
Fibonacci retracement level. A retracement beyond 76.4% should be considered
a warning signal.

is drawn from the current bar minus the last lowest bar at the
price level of the last lowest value to the current bar minus the
last highest bar at the level of the highest high value.
It will be a solid line with a line width of one pixel in the color
that is set for zigZagColor. If there is no new higher high,
we must check to see if the last low price breaks the reversal
amount based on the highest high price minus the HLPivot
factor. The code is thus:
else if (Low[0] < hh - hh*HLPivot)
{
// found a new swing low
ll = Low[0];
llb = CurrentBar;
downlineid = CurrentBar;
trend = -1;
DrawLine(downlineid.ToString(), AutoScale, CurrentBar-lhb, hh,
CurrentBar-llb, ll, zigZagColor, DashStyle.Solid, linewidth);
}

Three waves
Any up or down move consists of a minimum
of three waves 99% of the time (Figure 2).
The 1-2-3 waves are fractal: every wave can
be made up of a lower-degree 1-2-3 wave and belongs to a
higher-degree wave.
n The

move starts with a wave 1

n Wave 2 is a correction wave smaller than wave 1


n Wave

3 continues the move beyond the top


(bottom) of wave 1.
Correction levels
A smaller wave 2 correction will be a Fibonacci retracement
between 23.6% and 50%. Larger corrections retrace up to a
76.4% Fibonacci retracement level (Figure 3). A retracement
beyond 76.4% should be considered a warning signal. It suggests that price may continue past the 100% retracement, and
if this were to happen, it would change the count. A wave 2
retracement remains valid as long as it does not retrace more
than 100% of wave 1.

Copyright Technical Analysis Inc.

Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort
INDICATORS

3.3
3.2

wave 3 tops (bottoms). The first top (bottom) is wave


3.1, the second is wave 3.2, and so on.

Divergences
A divergence between price and indicator(s) at the
3.1
start of a new 1-2-3 wave is a good signal. A diver1
gence followed by a hidden divergence generally
indicates a continuation of the previous trend.
2
In Figure 5 you see a positive divergence on the left
there are lower lows in price and higher lows in the
indicator. This is a good signal for an uptrend reversal and
2
is often visible at the start of a new 1-2-3 wave up.
At the beginning of wave 3, there is a hidden divergence with higher lows in price but lower lows
2
in the indicator. This is usually a good signal for a
continuation in the direction of the previous uptrend
started by wave 1 up.
The chart in Figure 6 shows an example of a new
FIGURE 4: CONTINUATION. The top (bottom) of a wave 3 is considered a new wave 1 top (bot1-2-3 wave down. On the left side of the chart, there
tom) and thus the start of a new wave 2. Consecutive higher (lower) wave 3s are annotated with
an additional sequence number to indicate that there are more wave 3 tops (bottoms).
is a divergence with higher highs in price and lower
highs in the indicator. This is a good signal for a
downtrend reversal and is commonly visible at the start of a new
Continuation
The top (bottom) of a wave 3 is considered a new wave 1 top 1-2-3 wave down. At the beginning of wave 3 down, there is a
(bottom) and therefore the start of a new wave 2 (Figure 4). hidden divergence with lower highs in price but higher highs
Consecutive higher (lower) wave 3s are annotated with an in the indicator. This suggests a continuation in the direction
additional sequence number to indicate that there are more of the previous downtrend started by wave 1 down.

3.2

3.1

2>1

FIGURE 5: DIVERGENCES. Here you see a positive divergence on the left with
lower lows in price and higher lows in the indicator. There is also a hidden divergence
with higher lows in price and lower lows in the indicator. This is a good signal for a
continuation move.

FIGURE 6: DOWNTREND CONTINUATION. Here you see a 1-2-3 wave down. On


the left is a divergence with higher highs in price and lower highs in the indicator. At
the beginning of wave 3 down there is a hidden divergence with lower highs in price
but higher highs in the indicator. This suggests a continuation in the direction of the
previous downtrend started by wave 1.

Copyright Technical Analysis Inc.

Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort
INDICATORS

3.4
3.3

A compliance up or
down with the IRSTS
rules after a correction
wave 2 gives nice,
profitable entry points
in wave 3.

2
2
2>1
3
3.1
FIGURE 7: INVALID WAVE 2 IN AN UPTREND. The correction wave 2 starting from the end of
wave 3.4 breaks below the start of wave 3.4 and crosses the horizontal red support line. Beyond
that point you can expect a trend reversal. Wave 2 is consequently renamed as a new wave 1
(2>1) that moves in the opposite direction. You can then expect a wave 2 up correction followed
by a wave 3 that moves to the downside.

Reversals

Invalid wave 2 in an uptrend


A wave 2 correction that passes beyond the
start of the previous wave 1 or 3 is likely to
be the beginning of a trend reversal. Figure
7 shows an example of a downward reversal.
The correction wave 2 starting from the end of
wave 3.4 breaks below the start of wave 3.4
and crosses the horizontal red support line.

Beyond that point you can expect a trend reversal.


Wave 2 is consequently renamed as a new wave 1
(2>1) that moves in the opposite direction. You can
then expect a wave 2 up correction followed by a
wave 3 that moves to the downside.
Invalid wave 2 in a downtrend
In Figure 8, correction wave 2 starts from the end
of wave 3.5, breaks above the start of wave 3.5,
and crosses above the horizontal red resistance line.
Beyond that point you can expect a trend reversal,
and consequently, wave 2 is renamed as a new wave
1 (2>1) that moves in the opposite direction.

Incomplete wave 3 in an uptrend


After the top of wave 3 in Figure 9, there is a valid wave
2 correction and you can expect another wave 3 up. This
wave, however, turns down before making a new top. The
last downturn is confirmed as soon as the zigzag draws the
last line down based on the zigzag reversal setting. From that
point, you renumber the count. Wave 2 becomes a wave 1 and
the expected wave 3 becomes a wave 2 and you can expect a
further move down for wave 3.

3>2

2>1

2
2

3.3

2>1
2

3.4
3.5
FIGURE 8: INVALID WAVE 2 IN A DOWNTREND. The correction wave 2 starts
from the end of wave 3.5, breaks above the start of wave 3.5, and crosses above
the horizontal red resistance line. Wave 2 is renamed as a new wave 1 (2>1) that
moves in the opposite direction.

FIGURE 9: INCOMPLETE WAVE 3 IN AN UPTREND. After the top of wave 3, there is a valid
wave 2 correction, which means you can expect another wave 3 up. This wave, however,
turns down before making a new top, which means you should renumber the count.

Copyright Technical Analysis Inc.

Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort

3.2

2>1

1
3.1
3>2
3.2
FIGURE 10: INCOMPLETE WAVE 3 IN A DOWNTREND.
After the wave 3.2 low, there is a valid wave 2 correction
and you can expect another wave 3 down. This wave, however, turns up before making a new bottom. The upturn is
confirmed as soon as the last blue line up is drawn based
on the zigzag reversal amount setting. From that point you
renumber the count.

Incomplete wave 3 in a downtrend


In Figure 10 after the wave 3.2 low, there
is a valid wave 2 correction and you can
expect another wave 3 down. This wave,
however, turns up before making a new
bottom. The upturn is confirmed as soon
as the last blue line up is drawn based on
the zigzag reversal amount setting. From
that point you renumber the count. Wave 2
becomes a wave 1 and the expected wave
3 becomes a wave 2 and you can expect
a wave 3 up.

3.1

3.1
2 2>1>2

2>1>2

FIGURE 11: UPTREND EXCEPTION. After the top at 3.1


there is an invalid wave 2 correction. At that point you
would renumber wave 2 to a new wave 1, next expecting
a wave 2 correction upward. Again, there is an invalid
wave 2 crossing above the start of the new wave 1 (top
3.1). Since price breaks above the last top at 3.1, you
have a new top and number it logically as 3.2.

Rule count exception

Uptrend exception
One exception to the standard count and
reversal rule numbering in an uptrend is
when a new higher level 3 is reached as
shown in Figure 11. Following the top at
3.1, there is an invalid wave 2 correction.
At that point you would renumber wave 2
to a new wave 1, next expecting a wave 2
correction upward. Again, there is an invalid wave 2 crossing above the start of the new wave 1 (top 3.1). With the
standard count, you would normally renumber this wave 2
to a new wave 1.
Since price breaks above the last top at 3.1, you have a new
top and number it logically as 3.2. This means you accept
the prior wave as a wave 2 and consider it a correction to the
complete 1-2-3 wave 3.1 and not just the last leg.
Downtrend exception
You use the same exception rule to the standard count and
reversal rule numbering in a downtrend when a new lower low
level 3 is reached as shown in Figure 12. After the 3.3 low, you
get an invalid wave 2 correction. At that point you would renumber the wave 2 to a new wave 1 and expect a wave 2 correction
downward. Once again, there is an invalid wave 2 crossing below
the beginning of the new wave 1 (bottom 3.3).
With the standard count, you would normally renumber this
wave 2 to a new wave 1. But since price breaks below the last
bottom at 3.3, you now have a new lower bottom and number

3.2
3.3

3.4

FIGURE 12: DOWNTREND EXCEPTION. After the


3.3 low, you get an invalid wave 2 correction. At that
point you would renumber the wave 2 to a new wave
1 and expect a wave 2 correction downward. Once
again, there is an invalid wave 2 crossing below the
beginning of the new wave 1 (bottom 3.3). Since price
breaks below the last bottom at 3.3, you now have a
new lower bottom and number it logically as 3.4.

it logically as 3.4. This means that you accept the prior wave
as a wave 2, and interpret it as a correction to the complete
1-2-3 wave 3.3, not just the last leg.
As mentioned at the beginning of this article, this wave
count system is one of the rules within IRSTS. Lets look
at the 1-2-3 waves rule within the IRSTS trading strategy.
Remember, this is just one of eight rules.

Irsts 1-2-3 wave rule

The rule is simple: you should only enter a trade when the
expected wave is a wave 1 or 3. Wave 1 and 3 move in the
direction of the trend. Wave 2 is a correction wave and often
the price move will be too small to make a profit.
Expecting a wave 3
A compliance up or down with the IRSTS rules after a
correction wave 2 as in Figure 13 (blue up arrows are shown
at the IRSTS compliance level) gives nice, profitable entry
points in wave 3.
Often, the start of wave 3 will be close to the averages,
contrary to a wave 1 start, which will have its origin close to
the volatility band. The indicators will usually move above and
bounce up (or down) from the median value. The rule that price
is moving above the support of the average(s) will be the one in
favor here. From the chart in Figure 13, it is clear that making a
profit during a normal wave 2 correction is almost impossible
compared to profit-making opportunities in a wave 3.
Expecting a wave 1
This is more difficult than expecting a wave 3. A new wave 1

Copyright Technical Analysis Inc.

Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort

3.2

3.1
2
1
2

SVEBBpercB(TER(Daily),18,8), SVEStoch(TER(Daily),28,5)

FIGURE 13: PROFITABLE ENTRY POINTS FOR WAVE 3. The blue up arrows shown at the IRSTS compliance give profitable entry points in wave 3.

3.2
161.80% (18.71)

2>1?

3.1

100.00% (15.20)

1
2
2
0.00% (9.52)

SVEBBpercB(GT(Daily),18,8), SVEStoch(GT(Daily),28,5)

FIGURE 14: EXPECTING A WAVE 1. A top has been reached at 3.2. You would expect a wave 2, but there is a chance that this wave 2 will turn into a wave 1 for a 1-2-3
wave correction down.

Copyright Technical Analysis Inc.

Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort

3.2
3>2

2>1
3.1

0.00% (17.79)

100.00% (16.53)
161.80% (15.75)

261.80% (14.49)

3
1
2

423.60% (12.45)

2
SVEBBpercB(GT(Daily),18,8), SVEStoch(GT(Daily),28,5)

FIGURE 15: A LARGER 1-2-3 WAVE CORRECTION OR A SMALL WAVE 2 CORRECTION? There is a developing 1-2-3 wave down. Wave 2 could change into a wave
1 when the expected wave 3.3 turns down before reaching a new top and changes from a wave 3 to 2. It looks as if the first wave 3 down is completed, reaching a solid
support level (red horizontal line) at the lower side of the volatility band and a 261.8% Fibonacci target projected from wave 2.

indicates a reversal of the ongoing trend. The start of a new


wave 1 will therefore always start with a wave 2 correction
of the previous trend. In Figure 14, it looks like a top has
been reached at 3.2. You would expect a wave 2, but there is
a chance that this wave 2 will turn into a wave 1 for a 1-2-3
wave correction down. What is important, as you will see later
on, is to comply with the IRSTS rules for a trend reversal.
But often, you will not yet have a reversal wave 2 confirmation. Can you expect a larger 1-2-3 wave correction and not
just another small wave 2 correction? Consider the following
when trying to answer this question:
Even a valid wave 2 correction is sufficiently large
enough to make a good profit
n There is a significant up move in price since the start
of wave 1
n A Fibonacci target projection over the first completed
wave 3.1 gives a 161.8% target at exactly the top of
wave 3.2 (down wave not yet confirmed)
n Strong resistance down is far enough away (previous
top at 3.1 and all the averages)
n There is a negative divergence between price and
indicator.
n

As expected, there is a developing 1-2-3 wave down (Figure


15). Wave 2 could change into a wave 1 when the expected

wave 3.3 turns down before reaching a new top and changes
from a wave 3 to 2. It looks as if the first (perhaps) wave 3
down is completed, reaching a solid support level (red horizontal line) at the lower side of the volatility band and a 261.8%
Fibonacci target projected from wave 2. This complies with
most of the IRSTS rules. It is best to take the profit and close
the short trade.
If this is the start of a longer-term down move, then you can
expect a correction wave 2 up and you probably should not trade
it. Another reason to not take the trade is that uptrend resistance
is nearby. On the other hand, this could be an extended wave
2 correction related to the previous large up move and you
would prefer to believe that an up wave 3.3 is coming next. The
decision is yours! If you go for the latter and it turns out to be
incorrect, try to make a profit before price turns down again.
Dont miss the next wave down when that signal comes in.
In the third part of this article series on the IRSTS, I will
introduce you to my new candlestick pattern. This pattern will
simplify the approach to candlestick pattern recognition.
Sylvain Vervoort is a retired electronics engineer who has been
studying and using technical analysis for more than 35 years.
His book Capturing Profit With Technical Analysis received
a bronze medal from the 2010 Axiom Business Book Awards
in the category of investing. The book is a technical analysis
reference introducing a trading method called Lockit. His

Copyright Technical Analysis Inc.

Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort
INDICATORS

latest Band Break System trading expert is available on DVD.


Vervoort may be reached at sve.vervoort@scarlet.be or via
his website at http://stocata.org.

Suggested reading

Vervoort, Sylvain [2013]. Indicator Rules For Swing Trading Strategies, Part 1, Technical Analysis of Stocks &
Commodities, Volume 31: May.
_____ [2009]. Capturing Profit With Technical Analysis,
Marketplace Books.
Vervoort, Sylvain [2012]. Long-Term Trading Using Exchange Traded Funds, Technical Analysis of Stocks &
Commodities, Volume 30: July.

The NinjaScript code for this article can be downloaded from


www.traders.com/files/Vervoort-NinjaTrader.html, or from the
Subscribers Area at Traders.com, or from Vervoorts website
at http://stocata.org/ninjatrader/formulas.html. The file is
named SVEHLZZperc.zip.
For code for other platforms, see the Traders Tips section
beginning on page 52, which offers code, commentary, and
implementation of Sylvain Vervoorts technique in various
technical analysis programs. Accompanying program code
can be found in the Traders Tips area of Traders.com at
http://www.traders.com/index.php/sac-magazine/departments/traders-tips.

NinjaTrader (NinjaTrader, LLC)

Copyright Technical Analysis Inc.

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