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Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort
INDICATORS
High-low zigzag
In this second part of a seven-article series, find out about the 1-2-3 wave count
system thats part of the indicator rules for a swing trading strategy (IRSTS).
by Sylvain Vervoort
have found that about 99% of the time, any move in the financial markets is
composed of three or more up or down waves. The 1-2-3 wave count is based
on this finding. To help count these waves, I will introduce a high-low zigzag
indicator that is based on a fixed-percent price change between high and low
Copyright Technical Analysis Inc.
n
n
n
WILLIAM L. BROWN
Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort
3
2
1
1
3
NINJATRADER
FIGURE 1: HIGH-LOW ZIGZAG. Here you see an example of a zigzag between the lowest low and highest high levels at the turning points.
I will begin with a special action for the first two data bars
I store the last low and high price to find out if prices are
moving up or down.
if (CurrentBar < 1) // minimum 2 bars required
{
ll = Low[0];
hh = High[0];
llb = lhb = 0;
return;
}
if (CurrentBar < 2) // trend start based on bar 2
{
if (High[0] >= hh)
{
hh = High[0];
lhb = 1;
trend = 1;
}
else
{
ll = Low[0];
llb = 1;
trend = -1;
}
uplineid = downlineid = CurrentBar;
}
Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort
INDICATORS
1
2
1
2
3
FIGURE 2: THREE WAVES. Ninety-nine percent of the time, there is a minimum of three waves in any up or down
move. The move starts with wave 1; wave 2 is a correction; and wave 3 is a continuation of the move beyond the
top or bottom of wave 1.
0.00% (11.34)
23.60% (10.98)
38.20% (10.76)
50.00% (10.58)
61.80% (10.39)
76.40% (10.17)
100.00% (9.81)
FIGURE 3: CORRECTION LEVELS. A smaller wave 2 correction will be a Fibonacci
retracement between 23.6% and 50%. Larger corrections retrace up to a 76.4%
Fibonacci retracement level. A retracement beyond 76.4% should be considered
a warning signal.
is drawn from the current bar minus the last lowest bar at the
price level of the last lowest value to the current bar minus the
last highest bar at the level of the highest high value.
It will be a solid line with a line width of one pixel in the color
that is set for zigZagColor. If there is no new higher high,
we must check to see if the last low price breaks the reversal
amount based on the highest high price minus the HLPivot
factor. The code is thus:
else if (Low[0] < hh - hh*HLPivot)
{
// found a new swing low
ll = Low[0];
llb = CurrentBar;
downlineid = CurrentBar;
trend = -1;
DrawLine(downlineid.ToString(), AutoScale, CurrentBar-lhb, hh,
CurrentBar-llb, ll, zigZagColor, DashStyle.Solid, linewidth);
}
Three waves
Any up or down move consists of a minimum
of three waves 99% of the time (Figure 2).
The 1-2-3 waves are fractal: every wave can
be made up of a lower-degree 1-2-3 wave and belongs to a
higher-degree wave.
n The
Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort
INDICATORS
3.3
3.2
Divergences
A divergence between price and indicator(s) at the
3.1
start of a new 1-2-3 wave is a good signal. A diver1
gence followed by a hidden divergence generally
indicates a continuation of the previous trend.
2
In Figure 5 you see a positive divergence on the left
there are lower lows in price and higher lows in the
indicator. This is a good signal for an uptrend reversal and
2
is often visible at the start of a new 1-2-3 wave up.
At the beginning of wave 3, there is a hidden divergence with higher lows in price but lower lows
2
in the indicator. This is usually a good signal for a
continuation in the direction of the previous uptrend
started by wave 1 up.
The chart in Figure 6 shows an example of a new
FIGURE 4: CONTINUATION. The top (bottom) of a wave 3 is considered a new wave 1 top (bot1-2-3 wave down. On the left side of the chart, there
tom) and thus the start of a new wave 2. Consecutive higher (lower) wave 3s are annotated with
an additional sequence number to indicate that there are more wave 3 tops (bottoms).
is a divergence with higher highs in price and lower
highs in the indicator. This is a good signal for a
downtrend reversal and is commonly visible at the start of a new
Continuation
The top (bottom) of a wave 3 is considered a new wave 1 top 1-2-3 wave down. At the beginning of wave 3 down, there is a
(bottom) and therefore the start of a new wave 2 (Figure 4). hidden divergence with lower highs in price but higher highs
Consecutive higher (lower) wave 3s are annotated with an in the indicator. This suggests a continuation in the direction
additional sequence number to indicate that there are more of the previous downtrend started by wave 1 down.
3.2
3.1
2>1
FIGURE 5: DIVERGENCES. Here you see a positive divergence on the left with
lower lows in price and higher lows in the indicator. There is also a hidden divergence
with higher lows in price and lower lows in the indicator. This is a good signal for a
continuation move.
Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort
INDICATORS
3.4
3.3
A compliance up or
down with the IRSTS
rules after a correction
wave 2 gives nice,
profitable entry points
in wave 3.
2
2
2>1
3
3.1
FIGURE 7: INVALID WAVE 2 IN AN UPTREND. The correction wave 2 starting from the end of
wave 3.4 breaks below the start of wave 3.4 and crosses the horizontal red support line. Beyond
that point you can expect a trend reversal. Wave 2 is consequently renamed as a new wave 1
(2>1) that moves in the opposite direction. You can then expect a wave 2 up correction followed
by a wave 3 that moves to the downside.
Reversals
3>2
2>1
2
2
3.3
2>1
2
3.4
3.5
FIGURE 8: INVALID WAVE 2 IN A DOWNTREND. The correction wave 2 starts
from the end of wave 3.5, breaks above the start of wave 3.5, and crosses above
the horizontal red resistance line. Wave 2 is renamed as a new wave 1 (2>1) that
moves in the opposite direction.
FIGURE 9: INCOMPLETE WAVE 3 IN AN UPTREND. After the top of wave 3, there is a valid
wave 2 correction, which means you can expect another wave 3 up. This wave, however,
turns down before making a new top, which means you should renumber the count.
Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort
3.2
2>1
1
3.1
3>2
3.2
FIGURE 10: INCOMPLETE WAVE 3 IN A DOWNTREND.
After the wave 3.2 low, there is a valid wave 2 correction
and you can expect another wave 3 down. This wave, however, turns up before making a new bottom. The upturn is
confirmed as soon as the last blue line up is drawn based
on the zigzag reversal amount setting. From that point you
renumber the count.
3.1
3.1
2 2>1>2
2>1>2
Uptrend exception
One exception to the standard count and
reversal rule numbering in an uptrend is
when a new higher level 3 is reached as
shown in Figure 11. Following the top at
3.1, there is an invalid wave 2 correction.
At that point you would renumber wave 2
to a new wave 1, next expecting a wave 2
correction upward. Again, there is an invalid wave 2 crossing above the start of the new wave 1 (top 3.1). With the
standard count, you would normally renumber this wave 2
to a new wave 1.
Since price breaks above the last top at 3.1, you have a new
top and number it logically as 3.2. This means you accept
the prior wave as a wave 2 and consider it a correction to the
complete 1-2-3 wave 3.1 and not just the last leg.
Downtrend exception
You use the same exception rule to the standard count and
reversal rule numbering in a downtrend when a new lower low
level 3 is reached as shown in Figure 12. After the 3.3 low, you
get an invalid wave 2 correction. At that point you would renumber the wave 2 to a new wave 1 and expect a wave 2 correction
downward. Once again, there is an invalid wave 2 crossing below
the beginning of the new wave 1 (bottom 3.3).
With the standard count, you would normally renumber this
wave 2 to a new wave 1. But since price breaks below the last
bottom at 3.3, you now have a new lower bottom and number
3.2
3.3
3.4
it logically as 3.4. This means that you accept the prior wave
as a wave 2, and interpret it as a correction to the complete
1-2-3 wave 3.3, not just the last leg.
As mentioned at the beginning of this article, this wave
count system is one of the rules within IRSTS. Lets look
at the 1-2-3 waves rule within the IRSTS trading strategy.
Remember, this is just one of eight rules.
The rule is simple: you should only enter a trade when the
expected wave is a wave 1 or 3. Wave 1 and 3 move in the
direction of the trend. Wave 2 is a correction wave and often
the price move will be too small to make a profit.
Expecting a wave 3
A compliance up or down with the IRSTS rules after a
correction wave 2 as in Figure 13 (blue up arrows are shown
at the IRSTS compliance level) gives nice, profitable entry
points in wave 3.
Often, the start of wave 3 will be close to the averages,
contrary to a wave 1 start, which will have its origin close to
the volatility band. The indicators will usually move above and
bounce up (or down) from the median value. The rule that price
is moving above the support of the average(s) will be the one in
favor here. From the chart in Figure 13, it is clear that making a
profit during a normal wave 2 correction is almost impossible
compared to profit-making opportunities in a wave 3.
Expecting a wave 1
This is more difficult than expecting a wave 3. A new wave 1
Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort
3.2
3.1
2
1
2
SVEBBpercB(TER(Daily),18,8), SVEStoch(TER(Daily),28,5)
FIGURE 13: PROFITABLE ENTRY POINTS FOR WAVE 3. The blue up arrows shown at the IRSTS compliance give profitable entry points in wave 3.
3.2
161.80% (18.71)
2>1?
3.1
100.00% (15.20)
1
2
2
0.00% (9.52)
SVEBBpercB(GT(Daily),18,8), SVEStoch(GT(Daily),28,5)
FIGURE 14: EXPECTING A WAVE 1. A top has been reached at 3.2. You would expect a wave 2, but there is a chance that this wave 2 will turn into a wave 1 for a 1-2-3
wave correction down.
Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort
3.2
3>2
2>1
3.1
0.00% (17.79)
100.00% (16.53)
161.80% (15.75)
261.80% (14.49)
3
1
2
423.60% (12.45)
2
SVEBBpercB(GT(Daily),18,8), SVEStoch(GT(Daily),28,5)
FIGURE 15: A LARGER 1-2-3 WAVE CORRECTION OR A SMALL WAVE 2 CORRECTION? There is a developing 1-2-3 wave down. Wave 2 could change into a wave
1 when the expected wave 3.3 turns down before reaching a new top and changes from a wave 3 to 2. It looks as if the first wave 3 down is completed, reaching a solid
support level (red horizontal line) at the lower side of the volatility band and a 261.8% Fibonacci target projected from wave 2.
wave 3.3 turns down before reaching a new top and changes
from a wave 3 to 2. It looks as if the first (perhaps) wave 3
down is completed, reaching a solid support level (red horizontal line) at the lower side of the volatility band and a 261.8%
Fibonacci target projected from wave 2. This complies with
most of the IRSTS rules. It is best to take the profit and close
the short trade.
If this is the start of a longer-term down move, then you can
expect a correction wave 2 up and you probably should not trade
it. Another reason to not take the trade is that uptrend resistance
is nearby. On the other hand, this could be an extended wave
2 correction related to the previous large up move and you
would prefer to believe that an up wave 3.3 is coming next. The
decision is yours! If you go for the latter and it turns out to be
incorrect, try to make a profit before price turns down again.
Dont miss the next wave down when that signal comes in.
In the third part of this article series on the IRSTS, I will
introduce you to my new candlestick pattern. This pattern will
simplify the approach to candlestick pattern recognition.
Sylvain Vervoort is a retired electronics engineer who has been
studying and using technical analysis for more than 35 years.
His book Capturing Profit With Technical Analysis received
a bronze medal from the 2010 Axiom Business Book Awards
in the category of investing. The book is a technical analysis
reference introducing a trading method called Lockit. His
Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (1019, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort
INDICATORS
Suggested reading
Vervoort, Sylvain [2013]. Indicator Rules For Swing Trading Strategies, Part 1, Technical Analysis of Stocks &
Commodities, Volume 31: May.
_____ [2009]. Capturing Profit With Technical Analysis,
Marketplace Books.
Vervoort, Sylvain [2012]. Long-Term Trading Using Exchange Traded Funds, Technical Analysis of Stocks &
Commodities, Volume 30: July.
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