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What planet are leaving for the

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NOTE: This article was first published in spanish and can be found here.
Great challenges, which so far humanity had never faced, are already ahead of us
or maybe just around the corner. Of how they are managed it will depend the

Seven Principles for

Understanding and Avoiding
Short-Termism

future of humanity and the planet.

Cindy Fornelli

This article is not intended to, not at all, propose solutions to these challenges but
to put the focus on them and make each of us think from what it is called "out of

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planet and the future society in which our descendants will live without moving
more than two or three generations after ours.
As always, there are different ways of seeing and imagining reality,
seeing the bottle rather full or rather empty, or what comes to be as being
optimistic or pessimistic.

Perhaps our personal way of seeing things will make us think that the future will
be better or worse, since the challenges that loom are generally really
unknown in depth or size despite being studied, and thinking of them
creates uncertainty and even confrontations between people, whether they wear
the "hat" of ordinary people, politicians, scientists, entrepreneurs, thinkers, or the

the "hat" of ordinary people, politicians, scientists, entrepreneurs, thinkers, or the

one that apply to them.
As the reader will note, this challenges can be framed perfectly within the
Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) in 2030, but I wanted to simplify
them, remove them from that context in which there are many more facts, figures
and targets.
Previously we had already published an article about the criticism that those goals
were when they were set.
Let us now give, synthetic and superficial because of the small space available for
the article, a few touches to some of those challenges without losing sight that
they are not isolated issues but have strong dependencies and
relationships.

Will there be room for everyone?

According to estimates by the UN in its report "2015 Revision of World
Population Prospects" in 2015 there were on Earth 7,349 million people and
by 2100 there will be 11,213 million taking into account a decline in fertility rates
and increased expectations of life.

Africa will be the fastest growing country compared to the current population.
The other continents except Europe will have in 2100 more population than
today. There will be a decline in population in Asia, Europe, and Latin America
and the Caribbean in the period 2050-2100.
This uneven growth in 2100 will make that more than 82% of the world
population will live in Asia or Africa, from almost 76% today. Meanwhile, Europe
will rise from the current 10% to half.
There will be large variations in fertility levels between countries and regions, and
because overall fertility will decline and life expectancy will increase, the
proportion of the population above a certain age will rise.

proportion of the population above a certain age will rise.

Beyond whether there will be enough room for all, perhaps we should ask
ourselves about other issues arising from the data mentioned in this point.

Will there be resources for all?

The population increase has associated, as is logical and among other things, a
greater need for resources. In some countries and cases these resources will be
used to cover the most basic needs of Maslow's pyramid, while in other
countries with growing middle classes, resources will also be used for the needs
of recognition and self-realization.
Those needs will put even more against the ropes the planet's natural resources,
which today are already getting many hits.
Without going any further, we are mistreating a resource such as water, used for
both the most basic needs of human beings and for the manufacture of all kinds
of products. It is estimated that approximately 3,900 million people are at
risk of living under severe water stress by 2050, representing 40% of the
world population expected for that year.
One can not talk about water without talking about climate change and neither
of the latter without talking about the way we generate energy today.
Not only exploiting the planet's limited resources like oil or coal will end with all
its reserves, but also using these resources rather than other renewables is
damaging the environment in a way that is becoming very difficult to remedy. A
damage that we have already been suffering for some time and that can be
accentuated in the future causing even more and deeper problems of all kinds to
our society.

Will there be economic livelihood for all?

Bringing the challenges to the developed countries, we find in Europe and
specifically in Spain an increasingly aging population as it has been said
before and also a high percentage of unemployment.
We look out to a future employment growing in sophistication and
modernization and in which, with the advent of artificial intelligence, many
jobs and professions will be carried out by machines, leaving outside the labor
market a large part of current or future workers.
Also the labor market currently suffers a mismatch between the training

needs of new jobs and the education and training of those who would be
potential workers.
All this lies ahead a very near horizon in which the retirement age will be closer in
some cases almost to the death age (this being likewise increasingly higher for the
highest life expectancy), in which the average age of the workforce will also tend
to be higher, and in which many people who lose their job because of the
automatization of tasks will not be recycled in more intellectual jobs and
therefore will not rejoin the labor market.
Or maybe we get to the point where machines directly have reached such
sophistication that make humans not necessary for most of the production of
goods and services.
New business and economic paradigms will be needed to ensure the
welfare of society and that no further inequalities grow between rich and poor, or
between pensioners, workers and unemployed people.
These new paradigms and changes could come in the form of new taxes on those
activities that are performed by machines and also through a universal income for
all citizens to ensure they have their needs covered.
Without underestimating the other challenges facing humanity, the expected
changes needed in the way wealth is distributed seem to me particularly
important.
If we dont come to a global consensus on how to address this problem, social
inequalities could lead to a serious social crisis of global dimensions
and incalculable consequences.

How future will be shaped?

Beyond this horizon of uncertainty with many possibilities of failures and
problems (I leave the probability of occurrence and impacts to the consideration
of each reader) some believe that humanity will be, through progress and new
developments and advances mainly scientific and technological, able to deal with
all these problems.
If we remain optimistic we can also think many theoretical or practical
solutions are already on the table or working, and that is just a matter of
implement them quickly or simply promote them more than it is done today.
Being pessimistic we may think that very often we tend not act until we see the
wolf ears, and then it is usually too late, doing things wrong and in a
uncoordinated manner.

The "multiple ears" of this wolf have appeared in the distance long ago, the
question is whether we will defend from it on time or it will end up biting us
and/or those who come behind us.

Written by

Albert Vilario Alonso

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Senior Editor, News

Samsung is recalling 2.5M phones because of

exploding batteries; China launches antitrust
investigation into Uber-Didi deal, and more news.
Sep 2, 2016

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