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Chart 1
China: Large Corporates' Revenue Growth
percent
40
35
30
25
Revenue
growth
18
EBITDA
margin (rhs)
17
16
20
15
The corporate sector remains under pressure: debt-torevenue ratios increased from below 50% in 2008 to an estimated 58% in 2013. Although growth in debt may be slowing, revenues have also declinedhence Chinas corporate debt-to-GDP
ratio is likely to have increased further.
10
percent
15
14
5
0
13
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13f
Source: S&P
Chart 2
Share of Loss Making Chinese Industrial Companies
percent, 12m-mav
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
Chinese corporate funding costs have risen in domestic local currency bond markets. Spreads for BBB+ rated Chinese
corporates have widened over 300bps since mid-2013 and over
400bps since mid-2011, though they have tightened around
50bps in February (Chart 3). To a lesser extent, spreads for higher-rated corporates have also widened (around 50bps for AAA
and 100 bps for AA and A-rated Chinese corporates). Given that
Chinese local-currency domestic sovereign yields have also risen
over 100bps since mid-2013, the widening in corporate spreads
is even more noteworthy. This will also weaken Chinese corporates debt servicing capacity. Loans remain the mainstay of corporate financing, while any spillover effect from rising bond
yields on loan pricing has been limited. In fact new Chinese bank
loans amounted to RMB1.2 billion in Januaryhighest since
early 2010.
15
14
13
12
Aug 09
Aug 10
Aug 11
Aug 12
Aug 13
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 3
Chinese 5-Year Local Currency Corporate Spreads
bps, to Chinese 5-yr sovereign yield
1,200
AAA
AA
A
BBB+
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
(Excerpted from IIF Capital Markets Monitor, March 2014, author: Elif Aksoy,
zaksoy@iif.com, 1-202-857-3647)
Copyright 2014. The Institute of International Finance, Inc. All rights reserved. The contents of this report may be neither reproduced nor
distributed in whole or in part outside the membership without the prior written approval of the Institute of International Finance, Inc.
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