INFORMATION SHEET | THREAT-CONSEQUENCE DIAGRAMS

Visual Risk Analysis

Threatconsequenceorbowtiediagramsdescribethepathwaysofariskfromitscausetoits
consequenceandillustratethebarriersinplacetoreducetherisk(ISO/IEC31010,2009).The
strengthofbowtiediagramsisthatitgoesbeyondtheusualriskassessmentsnapshotand
highlightsthelinksbetweenthethreat,itsconsequences,thebarrierspreventingthe
consequencefromoccurringandthestrengthsofthesebarriers.Initsfullapplicationitcan
beusedtodemonstratethelinkagesbetweenthebarriersandtheunderlyingmanagement
system.Thehighlyvisualnatureofthediagramsarewellsuitedtocommunicatingriskissues
tononspecialists.

Understanding Barrier Effectiveness

Whenusedaspartofariskassessmentthefocusisshiftedfromtheoutcomeofthe
hazardouseventtotheeffectivenessofthebarriersanapproachwellsuitedto
documentinghowaschemeisachievingamultiplebarrierapproachtowaterquality.The
componentsofabowtiediagramareshowninFigure1.
Figure1.Conceptualbowtiediagram.

Bowtiesoriginatedasamethodforassessinghazardandoperationalrisks.TheRoyal
Dutch/ShellGroupwasthefirstmajorcompanytointegratethetotalbowtiemethodintoits
businesspracticesandiscreditedwithdevelopingthetechniquewhichiswidelyusedtoday.
Useofbowtieshassubsequentlyspreadbetweencompanies,industries,countriesandfrom
industrytoregulator.Theirapplicationhasextendedacrossallrisks,includingfinancial,
strategic,security,quality,businessinterruption,political,humanresources,designand
projectrisk.

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INFORMATION SHEET | THREAT-CONSEQUENCE DIAGRAMS

Bow-tie method
Themethodforbuildingabowtiediagramiswelldocumented,andinvolvesaskinga
structuredsetofquestionsinalogicalsequencetobuildupthediagramstepbystep.The
bowtiediagramcancaptureabroadrangeofinformation.Actionscanbeassignedtoany
componentofthediagram.TheitemsthatcanbecapturedarelistedinTable1alongwitha
recommendationofwhetherthisinformationshouldbecapturedintheworkshop.
Table1.Informationthatcanbecapturedusingthebowtiemethod

Component Items

Example

Recommended

Threat

Continuous,daily,weekly,monthly,yearly
High,mediumandlowcontribution

Yes
Optional

Activehardware,passivehardware,
behaviour
Verygood,good,poor,verypoor
Operator/manager
CCPs
Routinechecklists

Optional

Barriers

Frequency
Contribution
(category)
Barriertype
Effectiveness
Accountability
Criticality
Activities

Consequence

Category
Riskassessment

Minorconcern,mediumconcern,major
concern
AGWR.Differentareascouldalsobe
considered(operational,publichealth,
reputational)

Yes
Optional
Yes
Considerfor
subsequent
documentation
Optional
Optional

Bowtiesareusedtodemonstratethathazardsarebeingcontrolled,andthatthereisadirect
linkbetweenthecontrolsandelementsofthemanagementsystem.Thereareotherwaysof
demonstratingthislink(e.g.simpletables)butthebowtieprovidesacleargraphical
illustrationwhichiseasytounderstand.
Riskofthehazardouseventcanbeassessedusingastandardlikelihoodandconsequence
matrixforcontrolledanduncontrolledrisks.Riskscanberankedashealth,environmentalor
operationalrisksasappropriate.Howriskisillustratedwithinabowtiediagramisshownin
Figure2.
Figure2.Controlledanduncontrolledrisk

Uncontrolledrisk

Controlledrisk

ForMoreInformationcontact:
AnnalisaContos
PrincipalEngineer
AtomConsulting
65CambourneAve
StIvesNSW2075
(02)94887742|0414533369
annalisa@atomconsulting.com.au

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