Solar Energy 81 (2007) 12951305

www.elsevier.com/locate/solener

Potential of solar electricity generation in the European Union

member states and candidate countries
Marcel Suri *, Thomas A. Huld, Ewan D. Dunlop, Heinz A. Ossenbrink
European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Renewable Energies Unit, TP 450,
via E. Fermi 1, I-21020 Ispra (VA), Italy
Received 22 June 2006; received in revised form 20 November 2006; accepted 26 December 2006
Available online 14 February 2007
Communicated by: Associate Editor Hansjorg Gabler

Abstract
During the years 20012005, a European solar radiation database was developed using a solar radiation model and climatic data integrated within the Photovoltaic Geographic Information System (PVGIS). The database, with a resolution of 1 km 1 km, consists of
monthly and yearly averages of global irradiation and related climatic parameters, representing the period 19811990. The database
has been used to analyse regional and national dierences of solar energy resource and to assess the photovoltaic (PV) potential in
the 25 European Union member states and 5 candidate countries. The calculation of electricity generation potential by contemporary
PV technology is a basic step in analysing scenarios for the future energy supply and for a rational implementation of legal and nancial
frameworks to support the developing industrial production of PV. Three aspects are explored within this paper: (1) the expected average
annual electricity generation of a standard 1 kWp grid-connected PV system; (2) the theoretical potential of PV electricity generation;
(3) determination of required installed capacity for each country to supply 1% of the national electricity consumption from PV. The analysis shows that PV can already provide a signicant contribution to a mixed renewable energy portfolio in the present and future European Union.
 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Solar radiation; Photovoltaic electricity generation; Geographical information system

1. Introduction
The generation of solar electricity from photovoltaics
(PV) is beginning to penetrate the energy market in those
countries, where clear and stable policy commitments have
been made. In Europe, the example of Germany demonstrates how a policy has stimulated PV growth even in
regions with moderate solar energy resource. Although in
recent years other European countries have adopted similar policies (e.g. Spain, Italy, Greece, and the Czech Republic), PV technology is still not fully appreciated in many

regions, one of the main reasons being a lack of clear

understanding of its potential.
One of the four factors1 determining the economic performance of the PV system is the solar energy arriving at
the surface of the Earth. Although the total amount of this
energy resource far exceeds human needs, its exploitation is
determined by the knowledge of geographical variability
and time dynamics. The geographical analysis of the availability of the primary solar energy resource can improve
our understanding of the potential PV contribution to
the future energy and economic structures and thus contribute to setting up eective policies.

Corresponding author. Tel.: +39 0332 786661; fax: +39 0332 789992.
E-mail addresses: marcel.suri@jrc.it (M. Suri), thomas.huld@jrc.it
(T.A. Huld), ewan.dunlop@ec.europa.eu (E.D. Dunlop), heinz.ossenbrink
@ec.europa.eu (H.A. Ossenbrink).
0038-092X/$ - see front matter  2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.solener.2006.12.007

1
The other three factors being the cost per unit or installed peak power
(/kWp), the lifetime, and the operational cost including capital cost.

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M. Suri et al. / Solar Energy 81 (2007) 12951305

The geographical dependency and distributed nature of

solar electricity generation impose questions that require
specic location-dependent answers. Although various databases and estimation tools are available worldwide (European Solar Radiation Atlas, Meteonorm, NASA SSE,
SODA, Satel-Light, etc.; see Wald, 2006), none of them
fully matched our needs:
open data and software architecture;
climatic and geographic data at higher spatial resolution, integrated into a GIS system;
map-based interface providing easy-understandable
information also for non-professionals.
This has led to the development of the Photovoltaic
Geographic Information System (PVGIS) at the Joint
Research Centre of the European Commission since the
year 2001. PVGIS combines the long-term expertise from
laboratory research, monitoring and testing with geographical knowledge. It is used as a research tool for the performance assessment of PV technology in geographical
regions, and as a support system for policy-making in the
European Union. The web interface was developed to provide interactive access to the data, maps and tools to other
research and education institutes, decision-makers, PV professionals and system owners as well as to the general
public.
The aim of this paper is to provide an analysis of
national and regional dierences of solar electricity generation from photovoltaic systems in the 25 member states,
and 5 candidate countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, the former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Romania, and Turkey)
of the European Union (abbreviated as EU25+5). We take
into account PV systems with at modules mounted in horizontal, vertical and optimally tilted position. The theoretical potential is compared to what can be achieved in the
short-term, assuming the current PV growth. Rather than
focusing on primary solar radiation, we have looked at
the generated kilowatt-hours from each kilowatt-peak
(kWp) of a typical PV system, as this information can be
directly used in economic and environmental assessments.
Although this analysis focuses on the European Union
countries, the data and maps cover the whole European
subcontinent and the neighbouring regions.
2. Data and methodology
2.1. European solar radiation database in PVGIS
The solar radiation database for the European subcontinent was developed using the solar radiation model
r.sun (Suri and Hoerka, 2004) and dedicated programs
integrated into the GIS software GRASS (Neteler and
Mitasova, 2002; GRASS, 2006). The r.sun algorithms are
based on equations published in the European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA, 2000). The model estimates beam, diffuse and reected components of the clear-sky and real-sky

global irradiance/irradiation for horizontal or inclined surfaces. The main input parameters to the model were solar
radiation from 566 ground meteorological stations
together with the ratio of diuse to global radiation from
the same set of stations (source: ESRA, 2000), the Linke
atmospheric turbidity (Remund et al., 2003) and a digital
elevation model (DEM) derived from SRTM-30 data
(SRTM, 2006). The models account for sky obstruction
(shadowing) by local terrain features, calculated from the
DEM.
The spatial resolution of the resulting grid data layers is
1 km 1 km. The primary database represents the period
19811990 and it contains 12 monthly averages and the
yearly average of the following climatic parameters:
daily global irradiation on a horizontal surface;
ratio of diuse to global horizontal irradiation;
clear-sky index (characterizes cloudiness of the sky).
The 1-km grid resolution is determined by incorporation
of the DEM data, and therefore the detailed structure of
the terrain features (elevation and shadowing) is well represented in the solar radiation data. On the other hand, the
limited number of available ground measurements and
the information content and accuracy of the Linke turbidity factor do not represent the atmospheric conditions in
the same level of spatial detail.
The accuracy of the modelled values in the database was
evaluated against the input meteorological data used in the
computation. Comparing the yearly averages of the daily
global horizontal irradiation, the mean bias error (MBE)
is 8.9 Wh/m2 (0.3%) and the root mean square error
(RMSE) is 118 Wh/m2 (3.7%) for the whole dataset. This
analysis provides information about the errors only in locations for which the measurements are known. Therefore a
cross-validation was applied (using the same input meteorological data) to estimate the predictive accuracy of the
model that better describes the distribution of errors further from the locations with known measurements. The
average yearly MBE from cross-validation is smaller:
1.1 Wh/m2 (0.03%), but the range of monthly averages of
MBE is higher from 2.5 Wh/m2 in January to
4.4 Wh/m2 in August. The cross-validation RMSE is
higher, and the yearly average is 146 Wh/m2 (4.5%). The
PVGIS method simulating irradiation for inclined planes
has been compared with measurements at the Ispra meteorological station by Kenny et al. (2006). This resulted in an
annual overestimation by PVGIS by 3.2%, one of the reasons being partial shadowing of measured values by nearby
buildings and trees.
The details of the solar radiation model and computational approach can be consulted in our previous works
(Suri and Hoerka, 2004; Suri et al., 2005).
The primary data (representing average values of the
period 19811990) are used in combination with developed
tools for calculation of various products that are related to
solar electricity generation, such as:

M. Suri et al. / Solar Energy 81 (2007) 12951305

global irradiation for horizontal and inclined surfaces;

clear-sky and average real-sky daily prole of irradiances (considering also terrain shadowing);
average beam, diuse and reected components of the
global radiation;
average electricity generation from xed and tracking
PV systems;
optimum inclination and orientation of xed PV modules to maximize energy yields;
electricity output of PV systems considering also ambient temperature.
2.2. Estimation of solar electricity potential
The PVGIS solar radiation database was used for an
assessment of the potential solar electricity generation by
PV modules mounted at horizontal, vertical and optimal
inclination. Horizontal mounting is not often used except
when building integration considerations demand it. However, it is useful as a baseline estimate, also because many
sources of radiation data only provide the irradiation on
a horizontal plane. Comparing the results from horizontal
mounting with those of optimal and vertical mounting will
aid in using the present results to make estimates for
inclined mountings when using dierent data sets giving
only horizontal irradiation. We have considered the most
widespread grid-connected PV technology, installed within
the existing building infrastructure in residential areas. The
annual total of electricity generated from a PV system, E
(kWh), was calculated using the following equation:
E P k PRG;

where Pk is the unit peak power (assumed to be 1 kWp in

our calculation), PR is the system performance ratio, and
G is the yearly sum of global irradiation on a horizontal,
vertical or inclined plane of the PV module (kWh/m2).
The size of PV systems (installed peak power, Pk) is typically measured in watt-peak (Wp) and it characterizes the
nominal power output of the PV modules at Standard Test
Conditions (STC; see IEC/TS 61836, 1997), i.e. when the
irradiance in the plane of the PV modules is 1000 W/m2
and the temperature of the modules is 25C. The advantage
of using this measure is that it does not require knowledge
of the PV conversion eciency or the module area. In theory the PR in Eq. (1) would equal 1 for a system operating
constantly with the STC eciency. In practice, the output
of a PV system is lower than the peak power, even at an
irradiance of 1000 W/m2. One reason is the operating temperature that is typically higher than 25 C and which tends
to lower the PV eciency. The other factors are losses due
to angular and spectral variation, and system losses in
inverters and cables. The ratio between the actual output
and the nominal output is therefore expressed by a gross
measure, the performance ratio PR (see IEC 61724,
1998). A typical value for a roof-mounted system with
modules from mono- or polycrystalline silicon is around

1297

0.75 and this value is assumed in our further

considerations.
A part of the analysis was focused on urban residential
areas where most people live. To extract data for residential
areas, the estimated solar electricity potential was overlaid
with the CORINE Land Cover (CLC90) database (Heymann et al., 1994), namely with class 11 (urban fabric, i.e.
we did not consider other urban land such as industrial
and commercial sites, transport infrastructure, city parks,
etc.). The CLC90 database is available at 100-metres grid
resolution for most of the EU25+5 countries online
(EEA, 2006). However, in Sweden, Malta, Cyprus, Croatia
and Turkey the CLC90 data are not available and we had to
use the less accurate urban boundaries excerpted from maps
and from the Global Land Cover 2000 database (see
GLC2000, 2006). These data do not distinguish between
residential and non-residential zones in settlements.
In regional planning and decision making, the information is analyzed at the level of administrative boundaries.
Administrative boundaries (according to Eurostat NUTS,
level 3) were therefore used to synthesize PV estimations
and to calculate statistics (average, minimum, maximum,
probability distribution) at the level of individual countries
and their regions.
3. Results
The results reveal signicant national and regional differences within the 25 EU member states, and 5 candidate
countries, determined by latitude, continentality, terrain
and local climatic variations.
To outline geographic regions of solar electricity production, we rst assume horizontally-mounted PV modules. Inclining the PV modules southwards to an
optimum angle maximises yearly energy yields and this is
the most typical way how PV modules are installed. On
the other hand, PV is also used as a building integrated
material (cladding) on facades of buildings. Therefore we
have compared the energy gains and losses for PV modules
inclined at the optimum angle and vertically.
The two maps in Fig. 1 present the potential energy production for each installed kWp of a PV system with
modules mounted horizontally, and at optimum angle (calculated from Eq. (1)). The regional data assuming all three
types of mounting are further summarized to compare the
potential between the EU25+5 countries as well as between
regions within each country (Fig. 2). The countries are
sorted in descending order according to the national averages. The extremes of the dash line show the minimum and
maximum values within each country. Our aim was to
focus on areas where people live and where PV is mostly
installed. Therefore the upper and lower edges of the boxes
delineate 5% minimum and 95% maximum occurrence
probability of power production in urban residential areas.
These limits for populated areas are taken out to eliminate
the most extreme values from the analysis (mainly in high
mountains and deep valleys).

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Fig. 1. Yearly sum of electricity generation from a 1 kWp PV conguration with modules: (a) at horizontal position; (b) optimally inclined, to maximise
yearly energy yield (kWh/kWp).

3.1. PV modules mounted horizontally

The yearly sum of the electricity generated for each kWp
of PV with horizontal modules in EU25+5 countries
ranges from about 470 up to 1390 kWh (Fig. 2a). The
lower limit is strongly determined by the shadowing eect
of terrain in mountains for unshadowed locations the
yearly sums do not go below 530 kWh/kWp in Northern

Scandinavia. Taking into account only populated areas,

the range of the solar electricity potential is much narrower
630 kWh/kWp in the Northern Finland up to 1330 kWh/
kWp in Malta. In other words comparing only areas
where people live the same PV system with horizontal
modules will produce about 2.1-times more electrical
energy in Malta than in the extreme North of Finland. However, there are large geographical dierences

M. Suri et al. / Solar Energy 81 (2007) 12951305

1299

Fig. 2. Yearly sum of the electricity generated by a typical 1 kWp PV system in the EU 25 Member States and 5 Candidate Countries (kWh/kWp) with
modules mounted: (a) horizontally; (b) at the optimum angle; and (c) vertically. The solid line represents the countrys average value. The extremes of the
dash lines show the minimum and maximum values in each country. The box plot depicts the 90% of occurrence of values in urban residential areas.

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M. Suri et al. / Solar Energy 81 (2007) 12951305

and when focusing to the urban residential areas in the

EU25+5 countries ve climatic regions can be identied.
1. It is obvious that the highest potential for solar electricity generation is in Portugal, and in the Mediterranean
region with strong peaks in cloudless summer (Malta,
Cyprus, most parts of Spain, Italy and Croatia, Southern France and Corsica, Greece and Southern Turkey).
In this region in the urban residential areas, a typical
crystalline silicon PV system generates annual electricity
between 1100 and 1330 kWh per installed kWp.
2. Favourable climatic conditions are also found in the
Northern parts of Spain, Italy, Croatia, in FYR of Macedonia, and around the Black Sea (Romania, Bulgaria
and Turkey) with abundance of solar resource and PV
potential in the range of 10001100 kWh/kWp per year.
3. Good conditions are found in France (except in the
North) and also in most regions of Central Europe (Hungary, Slovenia, Austria, Slovakia and Southern Germany)
with more continental summers, where yearly generation
usually falls into the range of 8001000 kWh/kWp.
4. Northwest Europe (Southern Ireland, England and
Wales, North France and Germany, Benelux, and Denmark), Northern part of Central Europe (Poland, and
most parts of the Czech Republic) and the Baltic states
(Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) including South Sweden
and Finland, have less favourable conditions. The diffuse radiation has a higher share and yearly generation
is here expected to be mainly within the interval from
700 to 800 kWh/kWp. Due to long daylight in summer,
the yearly sums of solar electricity generation in the Baltic region are almost the same as in the lower latitudes of
Western Europe, where a more humid climate is
strongly inuenced by the Atlantic Ocean.

5. From the point of view of solar electricity generation,

the poorest regions in the European Union are in Scotland and the North Sweden and Finland, where yearly
generation falls below 700 kWh per installed kWp.
3.2. PV modules mounted at optimum angle
The main factors determining optimum inclination
angle of the PV modules (Fig. 3) are the geographical latitude, share of diuse to global radiation, and in mountainous areas shadowing by local terrain features. In
general, the optimum orientation of PV modules is due
South in the Northern Hemisphere. However, in some
areas the optimum orientation might be slightly oset
towards East or West due to shadowing by local
mountains.
If considering populated areas only, the optimum
mounting angle of the PV modules within Europe ranges
from 28 in Western Peloponnesos (with a high concentration of aerosols in the atmosphere) to 47 in Northern
Scandinavia. In large parts of Europe (mainly between latitudes from 4555), the latitudinal gradient is weak, the
diuse component relatively high, and the optimum angle
stays in the range of 3336, with some uctuation depending on regional climate.
The optimum inclination of PV in mountains is more
variable than in lowlands, as the energy yield strongly
depends on local dynamics of cloudiness and terrain shadowing. This eect is noticeable for regions with high mountains, such as the Pyrenees, the Alps, Carpathians, and in
Scandinavia. The extreme case of Sweden shows that in
locations with strong terrain shadowing the module inclination close to horizontal provides best yields, due to the
fact that very little direct sunlight reaches the modules,

Fig. 3. Optimum inclination angle for a South-facing PV module, i.e. the angle at which the module receives the largest amount of total yearly global
irradiation (degrees). The solid line represents the countrys average value. The meaning of the lines and boxes in the plot is the same as in Fig. 2.

M. Suri et al. / Solar Energy 81 (2007) 12951305

and hence the optimum angle is very at or horizontal to

capture as much diuse sunlight as possible.
Inclining the PV modules southwards from horizontal to
optimum angle increases the yearly electricity production
in urban areas by 926%, i.e. to levels of 760 (in Scotland
and Northern Scandinavia) up to 1510 kWh/kWp (in
Malta and Portugal). The lowest relative contribution from
the optimum inclination can be expected in Southern
Greece (910%). In Cyprus, and most regions of Greece,
Turkey, FYR of Macedonia, and Bulgaria this contribution does not exceed 12%. Optimum angle mounting in
most of the EU25+5 states increases electricity production
in the range of 1216%. The highest benet (above 16%)
can obviously be reached in Scandinavia and Baltic
countries.
In absolute numbers (Fig. 2b), the most electricity can
be generated in the Mediterranean islands, Portugal, in
large parts of Spain, Southern France, and in the central
and Southern regions of Italy, Greece, Croatia, FYR of
Macedonia, and Turkey (above 1200 kWh/kWp per year).
On the opposite site is the Baltic region, Scandinavia,
British Isles, but also parts of Central Europe, Northern
France, and Benelux countries where the yearly yield goes
below 900 kWh/kWp. In the rest of the EU the yearly yields
are in the range of 9001200 kWh.
3.3. PV modules mounted on facades
Compared to the optimum angle, PV modules mounted
vertically have yearly yields from about 4233% less in Portugal, and in the Mediterranean and Black Sea zone
(Fig. 2c). From these regions, in direction to Central and
Northern Europe the dierence diminishes to about 28%.
Lower dierences compared to the optimally inclined
modules can be expected also in the Alps, Pyrenees,
Carpathians and Scandinavian mountains. In Southern
Scandinavia, Eastern regions of the UK and Baltic states
the yearly loss from vertical mounting of PV modules is
smaller than 28%. In the Northern Sweden and Finland
this dierence goes below 20%.

1301

Due to the abundance of sunlight, the highest yields

from vertically mounted PV modules are still found in
Malta, Sicily, Southern regions of Spain, France, Turkey,
and Portugal (above 900 kWh/kWp per year). In the rest
of the Mediterranean region and in the Black Sea the
yearly yields from 1 kWp system are in the range of 650
900 kWh with overlaps in France, FYR of Macedonia,
Bulgaria and Romania, and countries of Central Europe.
The electricity yields reduce to 650 kWh/kWp in the Czech
Republic, Poland Germany, Benelux, British Isles, Baltic
states and Scandinavia.
Although the yields for vertical PV installation are smaller, one advantage is a better balanced seasonal prole
(compare with Fig. 4). The vertically mounted PV modules,
when mounted on buildings, can also contribute to savings
on the conventional cladding material.
3.4. Seasonal variability
The seasonal distribution of the solar resource in Europe is uneven and has to be considered for planning an
o-grid system or in electricity grid management by the
utilities once PV starts to become a signicant part of the
electricity production. The typical PV system with modules
mounted at the optimum angle produces 40% (in Spain) to
60% (in Finland) of the yearly electricity yield in just four
summer months (May, June, July and August, i.e. one
third of the year). The seasonal variability increases from
South to North. While monthly averages of PV output
may decrease from the yearly average in a range from
30% (Southeastern Spain) up to 100% (North from
the Polar Circle) in winter, they increase in summer in a
range from +20% (Southeastern Spain) up to +85% (Central Sweden). The seasonal variability is lower for vertically
mounted modules, as can be seen in Fig. 4, providing an
example of three cities Alicante (ES), Bratislava (SK)
and Stockholm (SE). Fig. 5 aggregates the seasonal variation of monthly averages of PV electricity generation (modules mounted at the optimum angle) from the yearly
average expressed by the relative standard deviation (%).

Fig. 4. Seasonal variation expressed by relative deviation of monthly averages of PV electricity generation from the yearly average for Alicante (ES),
Bratislava (SK) and Stockholm (SE) for PV modules mounted: (a) horizontally; (b) at optimum angle, and (c) vertically. Values in the brackets express
relative standard deviation (%).

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M. Suri et al. / Solar Energy 81 (2007) 12951305

Fig. 5. Seasonal variation of monthly averages of PV electricity generation (modules mounted at the optimum angle) from the yearly average, expressed as
relative standard deviation (%).

A similar variation can be observed within a day. Taking into consideration that daily electricity consumption
peaks around noon, solar electricity can provide a signicant contribution to satisfying peak load demand and peak
power shaping, such as those originating from the increasing demand of air-conditioning systems.
3.5. Regional dierences within countries
Large geographical dierences can be observed not only
at the continental level but also within countries. Fig. 6
indicates regional disparities in some countries that might
inuence the national strategies for implementation of
photovoltaic solar electricity. To make a comparison at
the level of administrative territorial units, the regional
averages of solar electricity yields for the urban residential
areas were calculated. The calculation for optimallyinclined PV modules is assumed, as this is the most typical
way how PV is mounted.
The results demonstrate that the largest variability of
PV electricity generation at the national level can be seen
in France, Spain, and Italy. This is due to the geographical
extent of the countries as well as transitions in their climates from the Atlantic (in the case of Spain and France)
and the Alpine (in case of Italy) to the Mediterranean.
The dierences between regions in solar electricity generation in France reach as much as 500 kWh/kWp (which
is about 47% of the countrys average value), and in Italy
470 kWh/kWp (38% of the average value). Considerable
NorthSouth dierences in PV output, within quite short

geographical distances, can be seen in Croatia and Turkey,

by about 380 and 370 kWh, respectively (34% and 28%,
respectively) per year from each installed kWp, and somewhat less in Greece 310 kWh and Portugal 220 kWh
(25% and 16%, respectively).
In Spain, the dierence in yearly solar electricity generation between the provinces Huelva and Asturias for a
1 kWp system with optimally-inclined modules can exceed
450 kWh from each installed kWp, and this represents
almost 33% of the countrys average. As kWh are equivalent to Euro, for the end user this can create a considerable
impact on investment decisions.
The diversity of the regional solar electricity potential in
countries such as FYR of Macedonia, Romania, Germany,
and UK is smaller though not insignicant (the range is
higher than 150 kWh/kWp).
3.6. Theoretical PV potential
Today, PV electricity tends to come from a large number of small power generators that are distributed dominantly in the residential areas. In order to lay out the
scope and extent of realistic generation potential in a given
country one of the rst questions to address is, how much
area has to be covered by PV modules to meet the full
national electricity consumption? Using the baseline of
1 kWp system; this consists of PV modules with a total area
of 9.5 m2; then dividing the total national consumption
(IEA, 2004) by the yearly electricity yield of a 1 kWp system mounted at the optimum angle will give outline estima-

M. Suri et al. / Solar Energy 81 (2007) 12951305

1303

Fig. 6. Regional dierences of solar electricity generation from 1 kWp system (modules mounted at the optimum angle) compared to the countrys average
(kWh/kWp).

tions. The theoretical surface of the PV modules in each

country depends on the electricity consumption and solar
resource available and therefore it varies between 0.1%
(Baltic states, Romania and Turkey) and 3.6% (Benelux
states and Malta) of the countrys surface area (Fig. 7).
On average, covering 0.6% of the EU25+5 territory by
PV modules would theoretically satisfy its electricity consumption. This estimate is somewhat conservative; the latest PV module technologies have higher eciency, so the
area covered per kWp is likely to decrease in the future.
Furthermore, this calculation ignores cross-border electric-

ity trade (so for instance no allowance is made for Dutch or

German electricity consumption being covered by PV in
Spain). On the other hand, of course, the PV area does
not translate directly into land area covered unless the
PV modules are placed horizontally. From the geometrical
point of view, the area of land needed for inclined modules
should be less, but in practice this depends on the type of
installation and the need to avoid modules shadowing each
other.
For comparison, using the CORINE Land Cover data,
we have identied that in countries such as Estonia and

Fig. 7. Theoretical PV potential: surface of PV modules mounted at the optimum angle that would be needed to completely satisfy countrys electricity
consumption (expressed as % of the countrys area). The dashed line represents the EU25+5 average 0.6%.

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M. Suri et al. / Solar Energy 81 (2007) 12951305

Bulgaria this theoretical surface of PV modules corresponds to the current extent of land ll and mineral extraction sites. In countries such as Czech Republic, Lithuania,
Latvia and Romania the theoretical PV surface is about
twice that of existing land ll and mineral extraction sites.
3.7. Photovoltaic capacity needed to cover 1% of
electricity consumption
The average electricity generation of a typical 1 kWp PV
conguration at the optimum angle was used to estimate
the installed PV capacity that would be needed in each
country of EU25+5 to provide 1% of the national electricity consumption (IEA, 2004).

The supply of 1% of national electricity consumption by

solar electricity would require an installation of 0.1 m2
0.9 m2 of photovoltaics per capita (Fig. 8). Three countries
fall outside this range due to exceptionally high consumption per capita. This dimension of less than 1 m2 corresponds to what we regularly see installed on roofs,
facades and balconies in the form of TV satellite dishes.
Interestingly, in many countries the installation of these
TV reception dishes is directly subsidised by national
governments.
The indicated installed capacity for 1% of share by PV is
shown in Fig. 9. The closest to the PV share of 1% in Europe is Germany, where at the end of year 2005, the
installed PV capacity reached 1537 MWp (Eurobserver,

Fig. 8. Surface of the modules (m2) per capita needed to satisfy 1% of the national electricity consumption. For comparison, the dashed line represents a
surface of a TV satellite dish with diameter 0.85 m.

Fig. 9. PV capacity needed to satisfy 1% of countrys electricity consumption (MWp). For comparison, the small bars in the upper right represent the
yearly world production of PV cells (MWp) in period 20002005 (Source: Eurobserver, 2006).

M. Suri et al. / Solar Energy 81 (2007) 12951305

2006), which covers 0.25% of the electricity consumption

in Germany.
4. Discussion and conclusions
Grid-connected PV in Europe is still dependent on
market support programmes. The success of individual
national initiatives demonstrates how tailored programs
can drive the long-term growth of solar electricity. However, many EU countries still do not consider photovoltaic
solar electricity as a key future technology to be addressed
by policies. This may be due to the lack of knowledge of
the solar electricity generation potential. This is despite
the fact that in many regions of Europe the solar energy
resource is more generous than in Germany; a country
which, thanks in part to the contribution from its Renewable Energy Act, has become a leading world player in a
rapidly expanding market.
Within our previous activities we have developed a mapbased system to provide overall information in order to
clearly and unambiguously present the European-wide situation for solar electricity generation and to provide an
objective analysis of what current PV technology oers to
Europe. In this paper we have focused on the EU member
states and candidate countries, as development of renewable-energies policies is high on the political agenda there.
Our results contribute to understanding the spatial and
temporal complexity the solar electricity generation on a
continental scale where policy-making needs to take into
account geographical variability.
Further development of the PVGIS system is under way
along two parallel lines:
Implementing a new solar resource database that is
derived from a 20-years series of Meteosat satellite
images. This will provide higher regional accuracy and
better statistics;
Incorporation of technological and socio-economic
parameters to the database that will enable analyses of
economic, technological and environmental aspects,
such as cost of PV energy generation, energy payback
time, and avoidance of CO2 emissions.
PVGIS is primarily meant to be an in-house decision
support system. However, to provide an access to the database and estimations to professionals and the general public, we have developed web-based interactive applications.
Any location in Europe can be chosen by browsing and
clicking on a map, choosing a country and city from a list,
or by directly setting latitude/longitude values. The

1305

monthly and yearly values are displayed in a separate

window. For a selected module inclination and orientation
the user can get also an average daily prole of clear-sky
and real-sky irradiances for a chosen month. The web
applications and supporting documentation can be
accessed at http://re.jrc.ec.europa/pvgis/.
References
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