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  • Markov y El Juego Del Monopoly

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    MaxiMontani
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    Aplicación de las cadenas de Markov al juego del Monopoly

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    Aplicación de las cadenas de Markov al juego del Monopoly

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Markieren Sie unangemessene Inhalte
    152 Ansichten3 Seiten

    Markov y El Juego Del Monopoly

    Hochgeladen von

    MaxiMontani
    Aplicación de las cadenas de Markov al juego del Monopoly

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Als PDF herunterladen oder online auf Scribd lesen
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    MATHEMATICAL RECREATIONS by fan Stewart Monopoly Revisited tn the April column 1 deserthed 3 ‘mathematical model of the board game Monopoly. At the start of the game, when everyone emerges from the GO position by throwing dice, the probability of the first few: squares he- ing occupied is high, and the distant squares ace umoccapied, Using the cor cept nf Markov chains, | showed that this initial bunching of probabilities timately evens out sa that the game is fairs everyone has an equal chance to 0<- cupy any square an to buy that prop- ety. This outcome is tc, however only when certain simplifying assump- tions are made, Monopoly enthusiasts were quick to point out that in the weal game, the long-term distribution of probabilities isnot even, So what are the true probabilities? ‘The Markov chain method can alsa he applied to the real game; Have to warn yon, however: that the analysis is com= plex and requires substantial computer assistance. Let me frst remind you how Markov chains are used for Monopoly. Aplayercan be is any one of 40 squares oon the board, which, for convenience, vve number clockwise from zer0 10 39, starting with GO (which is zero}. Given any two squares A and B, there isa quantity called the transition prob- ability—the probability that player who starts from A will reach B a the conclaston of his or ber turn at throve ing the dice. If this move is impossible, then the transition probability is zero, “There are 40 x 40 = 1,600 ransition probabilities in al, and they ean conve: hiently be encoded in a square matrix (M with 40 horigontal sows and 40 yer~ tical columns. For example, the entry in the sixth row and 10th column deseribes the probability of moving from Read- ing Railroad to Connecticut Avenue in fone turn. The inital probebiliies for a player are 1 for posinon Oand 0 forall the rest; they can be encoded as 2 vee- rorya (1,0, 0) “The theory of Markoy chains tells us that the evolution of this probability distribution is given by tte sequence of vectors ¥y My MPy, MPy and. soon: each throw of the dice corresponds to the marnix M operating on the vector ¥, The resulting veerors can be calculaeed by standard matrix methods, avaitable on any good computer algebra. pack age. Such packages can also ealeulate the so-called eigenvectors and eigenval- ues of M.A vector U is an eigenvector swith eigenvalue cif Mu =¢ xu, where can be a real or complex number: Markov's key theorem is that the long- ‘erm probability distribucin is given by the eigenvector whose eigenvalue has the largest absolute value. So in order to analyze the fairness of Monopoly, all we need to do is cor pure M and apply matrix algebra. For ‘my simplified model this was easy, but for the real game we must also take into Fy 4s snc nko AL rinows = HUMBER OF SQUARES Pron CLARENT POSITION PROBABILITIES OF MOVING a given nunber of squares in one tart, after accounting for rules for throwing dice, peak at the number sevex. Ifa player throws double, beor be gets to throw again, but three consecutive doubles meas Jail ScUNIIFIE AstERICAN Ostober 1996 xO & Jal. cand the marry ways to land brit, ‘makes Monopoly complex. account multiple rolls of the dice, spe- cial squares such as GOTO JAIL and ine structions on cards thar players draw when they land on CHANG: and COM- MUNITY CHEST Many readers sent me their analyses ofthe guume, The most extensive were {rom William J. Butler of Portsmouth, RL, Thomas H. Friddell, 2 Boeing en- aineet from Maple Valley, Wash., and Stephen Abbott of the mathematics de- partinent at St, Olaf College in Norch= field, Minn, wha collaborated with his colleague Matt Richey, Butler wrote a Pascal prograen, Friddell used! Mathcad and Abbott used Maple. The discussion that follows is a synthesis of their re- sults. (All models of Monopoly: make assumpcions abour the degree of detail tw be incorporated; there were insignifi- cant cflerences in the assumptions made by vatious cortespondemts.) The first modification of my original model is rake full account of the rules for the dice. A pair of dice is chrown, and if the esult isa double, the player throws again, bur three consecutive dour bles lands him or her in Jail. The throw of the dice ia tiny Markov chain in its ‘own right and can be solved by the usu al method. The resuit is 2 graph of the probability of moving any given die tance from the current position [see i- lestration at left|, Notice that the most likely lisence is 7, but that i is possible to move up to 35 squares (by throwing 6.65 6,6; 6,5). Yer the probabilities of Mathemetical Recreations PROBABILITY (PERCENT) 5 OS squane LONG-TERM PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION shows thatthe Jil square 1s most likely to be occupied. moving more than 29 squares are so smvall that they fail 10 show up on the raph, These resuits are incorporated into M by appropriately changing each individual entry. Next the elfect of the GOTO ja ‘square must be included, The Jai les pose « problem, because players can lect to buy their way out oF stay in ancl try to throw doubles to get out. (Or at later stages, when Jail becomes a reftge from high rents they ean stay in and hope not to throw doubles!) The probs abilities associated with this choice de pend om the player's psychology, 40 the process is nonMarkovian, Most corre spondents ge around this poser by ax suming thatthe player did not buy his cr her way eat, Then Jal becomes not so mmuch a single square as. Marko subprocess—a series of three (viral) squares where players move from Just in Jail to In Jail One Tuen Alteady to Mast Come Out of jail Next Tarn. The GO TO JAth square itself has probabiliey zero because nobody actually occupies it, The next step isto modify M to ac count for the CHANCE and COMMUN TY GHEST cards, which may senda play- er (0 Jail o¢ 10 some other positon an the board. This refinement can be made quite straight forwardly (if laboriously) by courring the proportion of cards that send the player o any given square. The extra probability js then added to the corresponding position in M. A™ ‘SL George's sculptures in the May column stimulated a discussion of how to make Uwee-dimensional ‘objects based on regular polyhedra, Witiam J, Sheppard of Columbus, Ohio, sent detai's of Ns cunning method for cutting a regular tetrahedron oF ootahedron trem salld wood, pining cut that “sturdy, sold models are more corwenient than hollow medels made by tapine together equilateral triangles.” His methods can be found in the Journal! of Chemical Education, Vol. 4a, page 1683; November 1967. Nortnan Gallatin of Garrison, lows, thas been working on Platonic solids for a quarter of a century and has de- veloped remarkable sculptures, some ‘made from mirror glass. The picture at the right represents a thrae-

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