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Interested Parties
Nathan Klein, Olive Tree Strategies
September 8, 2016
Clinton Coattails Actually Dead Weight

Hillary Clinton is not popular. She is, in fact, historically unpopular in the context of major party
Presidential candidates. Yet, defying voters perception of her, she has consistently held a lead in
the Presidential race according to most polls, and is expected to win according to most, if not all,
political prognosticators.
What is the impact of her historic unpopularity? Voters arent exactly chomping at the bit to gift
Clinton a blank check, and it is hurting Democrats in Senate and House races around the country.
1. Clinton boasts an all-time low image rating. Throughout the month of August, Hillary
Clintons favorability rating had a RealClearPolitics average of -14.2%. And, in the most
recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, among registered voters, 56% viewed Clinton
unfavorably. This includes two-thirds (66%!!!) of INDs.
2. The noseholder Clinton vote is significant. In the recent national poll from Quinnipiac,
of the voters supporting Hillary Clinton, 47% of them said that the primary reason for
doing so is in order to Oppose Trump, compared to only 32% of Clinton voters who
indicated their primary reason for voting for her was because they Like Clinton. And, in
a national poll from Suffolk University, a MAJORITY of Clintons voters (52%) described
themselves as at least somewhat likely to split their vote down-ticket.
3. Most people believe that Hillary Clinton will win the election. In the Suffolk University
national poll, 61% of likely voters believe that Hillary Clinton is going to win the
presidency come November 8th. In the Quinnipiac University national poll, it is 62%.
4. But they dont trust her. She is perceived as untrustworthy by 66% of voters. The
solution someone in Washington who can keep an eye on her, keep those tax-spend-lie
instincts in check, and keep the country on track.
5. Which is why nine out of eleven competitive RealClearPolitics U.S. Senate polling
averages are within the margin of error or better for the Republican candidate.
Republican senatorial candidates are winning in the battleground states of Florida (+5.7)
and Ohio (+7.5), and are tied across another seven races that were touted as easy pickups by Democrats only months ago.
Across the eleven most competitive Senate races, GOP candidates overperform Trump by
3% while DEM candidates underperform Clinton by -2.5%. While Trump trails by an
average four points across these states, Republicans have a +1.36% advantage.
Hillary Clintons radical unpopularity, coupled with the expectation of voters that she is going to
win the Presidential race, is having a dampening effect on the electability of down-ballot DEMs
across the country. Hillary Clinton could be the next President of the United States, and could
simultaneously be responsible for enduring GOP majorities in the House and Senate.
If Hillary Clinton wins, shell doom a lot of Democrats.

OLIVETREESTRATEGIES.COM \\ WASHINGTON, DC