SDMD1

9/9/16

Manuel Avila
Forecasting

Moving averages - 2 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Num pds

Data
Period

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Forecast
Error

TV Sales
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

30
32
30
39
33
34
34
38
36
39
30
36

31
31
34.5
36
33.5
34
36
37
37.5
34.5

-1
8
-1.5
-2
0.5
4
0
2
-7.5
1.5
4
0.4

Total
Average

Bias
Next period

33

Forecasting
50
40
30
Value 20
10
0
1

Time
TV Sales

Forecast

10

11

12

SDMD1
9/9/16

Forecasting

Moving averages - 2 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Num pds

Data
Period

Ref

Forecast

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

40
47
50
49
56
53
55
63
68
65
72
69

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Error

43.5
48.5
49.5
52.5
54.5
54
59
65.5
66.5
68.5

6.5
0.5
6.5
0.5
0.5
9
9
-0.5
5.5
0.5
38
3.8

Total
Average
Bias
Next period

70.5

Forecasting
80
70
60
50
Value

40
30
20
10
0
1

Time
Ref

Forecast

10

11

12

Time
Ref

Forecast

SDMD1
9/9/16

Forecasting

Moving averages - 2 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Num pds

Data
Period

Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Error

Forecast
13
7
23
32
58
60
90
93
63
39
37
29

10
15
27.5
45
59
75
91.5
78
51
38

13
17
30.5
15
31
18
-28.5
-39
-14
-9
34
3.4

Total
Average
Bias
Next period

33

Forecasting
100
90
80
70
60
Value

50
40
30
20
10
0
1

Time
Demand

Forecast

10

11

12

0
1

Time
Demand

Forecast

10

11

12

SDMD1
9/9/16

Manuel Avila
Forecasting

Moving averages - 2 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Num pds

Data
Period

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Forecast
Error

TV Sales
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

30
32
30
39
33
34
34
38
36
39
30
36

31
31
34.5
36
33.5
34
36
37
37.5
34.5
Total
Average

32.8
33.6
34
35.6
35
36.2
35.4
242.6
34.657143
Bias

Next period

35.8

Forecasting
50
40
30
Value 20
10
0
1

Time
TV Sales

Forecast

10

11

12

SDMD1
9/9/16

Forecasting

Moving averages - 2 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Num pds

Data
Period

Ref

Forecast

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

40
47
50
49
56
53
55
63
68
65
72
69

43.5
48.5
49.5
52.5
54.5
54
59
65.5
66.5
68.5
Total
Average

Next period

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Error

48.4
51
52.6
55.2
59
60.8
64.6
391.6
55.942857
Bias

67.4

Forecasting
80
70
60
50
Value

40
30
20
10
0
1

Time
Ref

Forecast

10

11

12

Time
Ref

Forecast

SDMD1
9/9/16

Forecasting

Moving averages - 2 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Num pds

Data
Period

Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Forecast
13
7
23
32
58
60
90
93
63
39
37
29

26.6
36
52.6
66.6
72.8
69
64.4
Total
Average

Next period

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Error

33.4
54
40.4
-3.6
-33.8
-32
-35.4
23
3.2857143
Bias

52.2

Forecasting
100
90
80
70
60
Value

50
40
30
20
10
0
1

Time
Demand

Forecast

10

11

12

0
1

Time
Demand

Forecast

10

11

12

SDMD1
Enter
(between
9/9/16
Enter alpha
alpha
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column
then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then
delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Forecasting

Alpha
Data
Period

Exponential smoothing

0.4
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast
Error
30
30
0
32
30
2
30
30.8
-0.8
39
30.48
8.52
33
33.888
-0.888
34
33.5328
0.4672
34
33.71968
0.28032
38 33.831808
4.168192
36 35.4990848 0.5009152
39 35.6994509 3.30054912
30 37.0196705 -7.0196705
36 34.2118023 1.78819768
Total 12.3177035
Average 1.0264753
Bias

Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Next period

34.9270814

Forecasting
45
40
35
30
25
Value 20
15
10
5
0
1

6
Time

30

30

10

11

SDMD1
Enter
(between
9/9/16
Enter alpha
alpha
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column
then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then
delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Forecasting

Alpha
Data
Period

Exponential smoothing

0.4
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast
Error
40
40
0
47
40
7
50
42.8
7.2
49
45.68
3.32
56
47.008
8.992
53
50.6048
2.3952
55
51.56288
3.43712
63 52.937728 10.062272
68 56.9626368 11.0373632
65 61.3775821 3.62241792
72 62.8265492 9.17345075
69 66.4959295 2.50407045
Total 68.7438943
Average 5.7286579
Bias

Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Next period

67.4975577

Forecasting
80
70
60
50
Value

40
30
20
10
0
1

6
Time

40

40

10

11

SDMD1
9/9/16

Forecasting

Alpha
Data
Period

Exponential smoothing

0.4
Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Next period

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Forecast
Error
13
13
0
7
13
-6
23
10.6
12.4
32
15.56
16.44
58
22.136
35.864
60
36.4816
23.5184
90
45.88896
44.11104
93 63.533376 29.466624
63 75.3200256 -12.320026
39 70.3920154 -31.392015
37 57.8352092 -20.835209
29 49.5011255 -20.501126
Total 70.7516883
Average 5.895974
Bias

41.3006753

Forecasting
100
80
60
Value

40
20
0
1

6
Time

13

13

10

11

Forecasting
45

40

35

30

25
Value
20

15

10

0
1

7
Time

Demand

Forecast

10

11

12

SDMD1
9/9/16

Forecasting
Num pds
Data
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period

Moving averages - 2 period moving average

2
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast
Error
Absolute

Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

30
32
30
39
33
34
34
38
36
39
30
36

31
31
34.5
36
33.5
34
36
37
37.5
34.5

-1
8
-1.5
-2
0.5
4
0
2
-7.5
1.5
4
0.4

Total
Average
Bias
Next period

33

1
8
1.5
2
0.5
4
0
2
7.5
1.5
28
2.8
MAD
SE

Squared

1
64
2.25
4
0.25
16
0
4
56.25
2.25
150
15
MSE
4.330127

Abs Pct Err

03.33%
20.51%
04.55%
05.88%
01.47%
10.53%
00.00%
05.13%
25.00%
04.17%
80.57%
08.06%
MAPE