Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Centre de dveloppement des nergies renouvelables (CDER), PB.62, route de lObservatoire, Bouzarah, 16340 Algiers, Algeria
Ecole Nationale Suprieure de Statistique et dEconomie Applique (ENSSEA), 11, chemin Doudou Mokhtar, Benaknoun, 16000 Algiers, Algeria
c
MDI Algiers Business School, 19, Mohamed Boudiaf Street, Chraga, 16002 Algiers, Algeria
b
art ic l e i nf o
a b s t r a c t
Article history:
Received 28 April 2015
Received in revised form
18 August 2015
Accepted 1 December 2015
Available online 30 December 2015
The high generation cost of renewable energy is one of the main barriers to their development and large-scale
deployment. This is the case of Algeria, in which despite its signicant renewable energy potential, more than
96% of electricity is generated with gas turbines to cover increasing national demand. This choice is also driven
by the important natural gas reservoirs in Algeria in addition to the low cost of electricity that is generated by
this fossil fuel. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the cost of electricity production from a renewable
source, substituting conventional fossil fuel processes. An economic value can be captured through the trade of
greenhouse gas emissions and the reallocation of fuel savings to export. This approach is particularly well
supported considering the growing local demand for natural gas, threatening the countrys natural gas export
capacity in which the economy of Algeria is tightly dependent. The conventional evaluation of the generation
cost of electricity, using the Levelized Cost Of Electricity (LCOE) and the cost structure of electricity production is
selected for comparing the cost of electricity generation from gas power and photovoltaic plants. The environmental benets and their nancial valuation mechanisms are discussed. To illustrate all these parameters, a
case study of a photovoltaic plant with a capacity of one megawatt (1 MW) installed in Algeria is presented and
the potential benets in terms of fuel savings and CO2 eq emission assessed.
& 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
LCOE
Renewable electricity generation cost
Fossil fuel savings
CO2 eq emission savings
Photovoltaic plant
Algeria as contingent region
Contents
1.
2.
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1151
The conventional method of assessing the cost of electricity production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1151
2.1.
The concept of levelized cost and conventional calculation method dened by OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1151
2.2.
Structure of the total cost of production costs by different technologies [2] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1152
3. The reduction of GHG emissions through renewable energy and its economic valuation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1153
3.1.
The CO2 emissions from different electricity generation technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1153
3.2.
Economic valuation from reducing greenhouse gas emissions [56] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1153
4. Evaluation of fuel consumption for electricity generation in Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1154
5. Evaluation of fuel savings and CO2 eq emissions for a one-megawatt photovoltaic plant. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1154
5.1.
PVGIS estimates of solar electricity generation [63] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1154
5.2.
Evaluation of saved fuel volume (reference year 2013) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1155
5.3.
Evaluation of carbon emission savings compared to gas power plants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1155
5.4.
Financial evaluation of annual CO2 eq and fuel savings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1155
6. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1155
Reference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1156
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.044
1364-0321/& 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
We are witnessing since over 10 years to a real ination of
studies on the production cost of electricity, particularly on
external costs, with the objective to guide public policies for
alternative energies with CO2 low-emission or for renewable
energies [1]. These studies promote better decision making in
energy and environment, which increasingly needs a better evaluation of the production cost of electricity looking for a standard
for energy efciency or an internalization of external costs.
If the accuracy of these assessments is fundamental to guide public
policies on energy as it allows to make technological choices or set the
necessary incentives or penalties, recent studies do not currently allow
to dene a consensual method for comparing the unit costs of different technologies for electricity generation taking into account
regional contingencies or essential facilities. This paper focuses on
costs for producers, in fact the costs that can be directly attributed to
the investment and operation of power plants, with an energy policies' orientation perspective, more particularly in the specic case of
Algeria, one of the important oil and gas exporting countries. Firstly,
we examine the conventional method of assessing the electricity
production cost, more particularly the concept of the levelized cost
and conventional calculation method , and the structure of the total
cost of production costs by different technologies, as dened by OECD
in 2010 [2]. Secondly, we study the reduction of GHG emissions
through renewable energy and economic valuation, before examining
the precise case of evaluation of fuel consumption for electricity
generation in Algeria and the evaluation of fuel savings and CO2 eq
emissions for a one-megawatt photovoltaic plant to justify recourse to
a composite method taking into account economic specic factors to
different regions of the world as well see it for the specic case of
Algeria characterized by two signicant variables: the income generated due to the reduction of domestic consumption of natural gas for
power generation and the non-null cost of carbon, contributing to the
revenue generated by the emissions saved.
The most used method for comparing the unit costs of different
technologies is a common metric for comparing power-generating
technologies called levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) [2].
However, the generic nature of this method has been criticized in
recent works [3]. Critics focus on the inadequacy of this method to
take into account economic factors specic to different regions of
the world [4], but also for the integration of indirect costs-also
called external costs-related to renewable technologies [4]. These
are two shortcomings of current studies that our research
attempts to rectify in a specic contingent case.
These deciencies lead to wrong estimates, particularly for
renewable generation costs. The integration of the specic economic parameters to the study area appears to be essential to
achieving relevant results. So, the assessment of the energy production cost does not only determine the choice of technology, but
also the deployment of the energy policy to adopt (program
funding, grants, penalties). This is more particularly by this focus
that we study the renewable energies' cost in Algeria. The Algerian
market context is specic to the hydrocarbon exporting countries.
Indeed, the last decade has seen a considerable increase in
national electricity consumption for several reasons: demographic
growth, the increase of the Algerian citizen living standards (more
than 98% of Algerian citizens have access to electricity), the
increase of household comfort, among other reasons. This consumption has almost doubled since 2001, from 7,802 to 15,073 k
toe in 2013 [5,6]. In correlation with this demand, the natural gas
requirements of thermal power plants-where the bulk of domestic
production-will be equally affected. In 2013, the production of
electricity had mobilized more than 40% of domestic consumption
of natural gas. Along with this consumption, domestic natural gas
production will have changed very little from 74,353 k toe in 2001
1151
to 77,058 k toe in 2013, i.e. an increase of 3.63% [5,6]. This has been
reected, in the recent years, in a downward trend in exports of
natural gas. Since 2005, the volume of natural gas exports has
decreased from 37,838 to 30,463 k toe, falling to 19.5% [6,7].
Furthermore, it is recognized that the use of renewable energies can signicantly reduce carbon dioxide or equivalent (CO2 eq)
emissions compared to their fossil equivalents and it is considered
therefore as one of mitigation solutions to keep global warming
under 2 C. There are international mechanisms of pricing carbon,
including those of the United Nations Framework Convention,
which provide an opportunity for developing countries to monetize the quantities of CO2 eq saved by using renewable energies.
These instruments internalize the external costs of climate change
and reduce the investment costs of renewable energy.
In this way, we underline two main features for the Algerian
case that might inuence the evaluation of the actual cost of
electricity production from renewable sources. On the one hand, it
seems that the production of electricity from renewable energy in
Algeria, indirectly generates income, due to the reduction of
domestic consumption of natural gas for power generation, which
will be therefore allocated to the quantities exported-due to the
fact that Algeria is an oil exporting country. So instead of having a
variable fuel cost to zero, it will be replaced by a variable that
quanties the fuel saved.
On the other hand, and complementarily, the variable cost of
carbon becomes non-null, and so should be adapted to express the
revenue generated by the emissions saved.
Thus, in order to better assess the electricity generation costs
from renewable sources, the revision of the conventional method
LCOE seems necessary in the case of Algeria. Such reassessment
may be extended to groups of developing country exporters of
fossil fuels.
Our research focuses on the comparison between gas plant
technology-dominant technology in our case-and photovoltaic
power plants for renewable energy, which is expected to be an
emerging technology in Algeria. It will be addressed according to
the following plan:
First, the calculation method usually used to evaluate the cost of
electricity generation;
Second, the structure of production costs of the two technologies concerned;
Third, the fuel consumption of thermal power plants in Algeria;
Fourth, a case study of a virtual photovoltaic plant with a
simulation on the PV GIS software followed by estimates of fuel
savings and CO2 eq emissions.
1152
2
The sources cited are unspecied The study includes 21 countries and gathered cost data for 190 power plants. Data was provided for 111 plants by the participants in the Expert Group representing 16 OECD member countries (), for 20 plants
by 3 non-member countries () and for 39 plants by industry participants []. In
addition, the Secretariat also collected data for 20 plants under construction in China
using both publicly available and ofcial Chinese data sources [2].
1153
Fig. 2. Median value of life-cycle of greenhouse gas emissions (g CO2 eq/ kW h).
Source: Open Energy Information (Open EI) [internet]. Available from: http://en.openei.org/apps/LCA/ [854].
the prize of the tons of carbon experienced its lowest levels during
last decade.
3
Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CO2 eq)a metric measure used to compare the
emissions from various greenhouse gases based upon their global warming
potential (GWP). These Carbon dioxide equivalents are commonly expressed as
"million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MMTCO2 Eq)." The carbon
dioxide equivalent for a gas is derived by multiplying the tons of the gas by the
associated GWP. Glossary of Climate Change Terms US EPA. Available from: http://
www.epa.gov/climatechange/glossary.html
1154
Table 1
Fuel consumption of thermal power plants in Algeria between 2008 and 2013.
Source: Algtableerian Ministry of Energy and Mines. National energy balance (from 2008 to 2013). [6,5862].
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
11,067
11,824
11,400
12,064
11,411
12,066
12,321
13,038
13,333
14,109
12,817
13,563
11,080
39,705
11,446
42,099
12,176
46,949
13,092
50,258
14,347
56,360
15,012
59,334
10^6 m3/GW h
10^6 m3/MW h
Consumption MM Btu:
MM Btu/GW h
MM Btu/MW h
0.298
0.000298
0.287
0.000287
0.257
0.000257
0.259
0.000259
0.250
0.000250
0.229
0.000229
10627.56
10.63
10226.66
10.23
9171.73
9.17
9258.06
9.26
8933.87
8.93
8157,68
8.16
Conversion rate:
1 million m3 of natural gas 35,687.347874265 MM Btu.
a
The thermal power expressed in gigawatt hour (GW h) is deducted from the electricity produced from diesel.
5. Evaluation of fuel savings and CO2 eq emissions for a onemegawatt photovoltaic plant
Before assessing savings of fuel and CO2 eq emissions that
could perform a photovoltaic plant, we consider the production of
a photovoltaic power plant in Laghouat (Algeria) for this study. The
4
About PVGIS: Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS) provides a
map-based inventory of solar energy resource and assessment of the electricity generation from photovoltaic systems in Europe, Africa, and South-West Asia. It is a part of
the SOLAREC action that contributes to the implementation of renewable energy in the
European Union as a sustainable and long-term energy supply by undertaking new
S&T developments in elds where harmonization is required and requested by customers. Available from: http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/about_pvgis/about_pvgis.
htm
Table 2
Renewable electricity generation result.
Source: PVGIS European Communities, 20012012 [63].
Fixed system: inclination 33, orientation 3
Month
Ed
Em
Hd
Hm
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Yearly average
Total for year
4160.00
4630.00
5270.00
5110.00
4920.00
4820.00
4800.00
4820.00
4470.00
4630.00
4290.00
3880.00
4650
1,700,000
129,000
130,000
163,000
153,000
153,000
145,000
149,000
150,000
134,000
144,000
129,000
120,000
141,000
5.26
5.97
7.06
6.93
6.84
6.88
6.97
6.97
6.29
6.30
5.58
4.94
6.34
2310
163
167
219
208
212
206
216
216
189
195
167
153
193
Notes:
Ed: Average daily electricity production from the given system (kW h) Em: Average
monthly electricity production from the given system (kW h) Hd: Average daily sum
of global irradiation per square meter received by the modules of the given system
(kW h/m2) Hm: Average sum of global irradiation per square meter received by the
modules of the given system (kW h/m2).
1155
6. Conclusion
Due to the national energy situation (fast growing domestic
demand and the contraction in the international supply), we consider
that the fuel economy that generates the production of renewable
electricity should be deducted from the investment cost, in addition to
incomes that could be generated by the economies of carbon dioxide
or equivalent (CO2 eq). Accordingly, we propose to adapt the electricity levelized cost formula when these two variables would be
negative. Then, it will be translated as follows:
P R. Electricity
t ((Investment t O and M t Fuel saved t Carbon saved
t Decommissioning t)*(1 r) t)/(t (R. Electricity t*(1 r) t))
R. Electricity t: The amount of renewable electricity produced in
year t;
P R. Electricity: The constant price of renewable electricity;
(1 r) t: The discount factor for year t;
Investment t: Investment costs in year t;
O and M t: Operations and maintenance costs in year t;
Fuel saved t: the fuel savings value relative to the reference conventional technology for the year "t";
Carbon saved t: Carbon spared t: the income generated value
through the valuation of CO2 eq savings during the year "t" (CO2
emissions reduction compared to the reference technology);
Decommissioning t: Decommissioning cost in year t.
Overall, in applying this method to our case study, the fuel
savings over a period of 20 years-the minimum duration of a
photovoltaic plant [64,65] -would be over 1.39 million US$. And
furthermore, the CO2 eq economies could generate 73,500 US$
over the same period. Together, these savings would be US$1.46
million to the minimum period of operation of the plant.
It is important to compare these savings with the overall cost of a
PV system. In 2015, the IRENA report on Renewable power generation costs in 2014 wrote The range of installed costs for small utilityscale projects in 2011 was between USD 3200 and USD 7 600/kW, while
for large-scale utility projects the range was between USD 2200 and USD
7050/kW. By 2014, the range for smaller utility-scale projects had
declined to between USD 1 300 and USD 6800/kW (based on data from
CPUC, 2014 and Photon Consulting, 2014 to supplement the IRENA
Renewable Cost Database) and for larger projects it had declined to
between USD 1300 and USD 5400/kW. [66] (IRENA, 2015).
Obviously, the savings from solar power plants during their
lifetime-the same for all renewable energy plants-can signicantly
reduce their overall cost. Therefore, the results, and consequently the
choice of technology, would be different from the conventional
method.
Ultimately, in contrast to the conventional method, our approach
takes in consideration the fuel and CO2 emissions savings which are
generated by renewable energy technologies. Accordingly, the results
obtained are more representative, and provide a more relevant measure in the technology choices for energy production. This can be used
by economic operators in the process of technological choice, but also
by governments in establishing public policy aiming to support rene
1156
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