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CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
C H A P T E R
Project Management
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS
1.There are many possible answers. Project management is
needed in large construction jobs, in implementing new
informationsystems,innewproductdevelopment/marketing,in
creatinganewassemblyline,andsoon.
2.Projectorganizationsmakesureexistingprogramscontinueto
runsmoothlywhilenewprojectsaresuccessfullycompleted.
3.The three phases involved in managing a large project are
planning,scheduling,andcontrolling.
4.PERTandCPMhelpanswerquestionsrelatingtowhichtask
elementsareon(orlikelytobeon)thecriticalpathandtoproba
ble completion times for the overall project. Some specific
questionsinclude:
Whenwilltheentireprojectbecompleted?
Whicharethecriticalactivitiesortasksintheproject;that
is, the activities that will delay the entire project if
completedbehindschedule?
Whicharethenoncriticalactivities;thatis,thosethatcan
runbehindschedulewithoutdelayingthewholeproject?
Howfarbehindschedulecantheseactivitiesrunwithout
disruptingthecompletiontime?
Whatistheprobabilitythattheprojectwillbecompleted
byaspecificdate?
Atanyparticulardate,istheprojectonschedule,behind
schedule,oraheadofschedule?
Onanygivendate,isthemoneyspentequalto,lessthan,
orgreaterthanthebudgetedamount?
Arethereenoughresourcesavailabletofinishtheproject
ontime?
Iftheprojectisrequiredtobefinishedinashorteramount
oftime,whatistheleastcostwaytoaccomplishthis?
5.WBS is a hierarchical subdivision of effort required to
achieveanobjective.Itdefinesaprojectbybreakingitdowninto
manageablepartsandevenfinersubdivisions.
6.AGanttchartisavisualdevicethatshowsthedurationof
tasksinaproject.Itisalowcostmeansofensuringthat(1)all
activities are planned for, (2) their order of performance is
plannedfor,(3)theactivitytimesarerecorded,and(4)theoverall
projecttimeisdeveloped.
7.ThedifferencebetweenAOAandAONisthatactivitiesare
shownonarrowsintheformerandonthenodeinthelatter.We
primarilyuseAONinthischapter.
8.Anylatestartorextensionofanactivityonthecriticalpath
willdelaythecompletionoftheproject.
9.Tocrashanactivity,theprojectmanagerwouldpaymoney
toaddresources(overtime,extrahelp).
10.ActivitytimesusedinPERTareassumedtobedescribedby
aBetaprobabilitydistribution.Givenoptimistic(a),pessimistic
(b),andmostlikely(m),completiontimes,averageorexpected
timeisgivenby:
t
a 4m b
6
andthevarianceby:
(b a )
6
Variance
11.Earlystart(ES)ofanactivityisthelatestoftheearlyfinish
timesofallitspredecessors.Earlyfinish(EF)istheearlystartof
anactivityplusitsduration.Latefinish(LF)ofanactivityisthe
earliestofthelatestarttimesofallsuccessoractivities.Latestart
(LS)ofanactivityisitslatefinishlessitsduration.
12.The critical path is the shortest time possible for the
completionofaseriesofactivities,butthatshortesttimeisthe
longest paththroughthenetwork.Onlythelongestpathallows
time
for
all
activitiesintheseries;anysmalleramountwillleaveactivities
unfinished.
13.Dummyactivitieshavenotimeduration.Theyareinserted
intoaAOAnetworktomaintainthelogicofthenetwork,suchas
whentwoactivitieshaveexactlythesamebeginningandending
events.Adummyactivityisinsertedwithoneofthemsothatthe
computersoftwarecanhandletheproblem.
14.Theyare(1)optimistictimeestimate(a),anestimateofthe
minimum time an activity will require; (2) most likely time
estimate (m), an estimate of the normal time an activity will
require;and(3)pessimistictimeestimate(b),anestimateofthe
maximumtimeanactivitywillrequire.
15.No.Innetworks,thereisnopossibilitythatcrashinganon
criticaltaskcanreducetheprojectduration.Onlycriticaltasks
offer the possibility of reducing path length. However, other
criteriaforcrashingmayexist:forinstance,skillsrequiredinone
oftheactivitiesmayalsobeneededelsewhere.
16.TotalPERTprojectvarianceiscomputedasthesumofthe
variancesofallactivitiesonthecriticalpath.
13
CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
17.Slack:theamountoftimeanactivitycanbedelayedandnot
affecttheoverallcompletiontimeofthewholeproject.Slackcan
bedeterminedbyfindingthedifferencebetweentheearlieststart
timeandthelateststarttime,ortheearliestfinishtimeandthelat
estfinishtimeforagivenactivity.
18.Ifthereareasufficientnumberoftasksalongthecritical
path,wecanassumethatprojectcompletiontimeisdescribedbya
normalprobabilitydistributionwithmeanequaltothesumofthe
expectedtimesofallactivitiesonthecriticalpathandvariance
equaltothesumofthevariancesofallactivitiesonthecritical
path.
Thefundamentalassumptionrequiredisthatthenumberof
activitiesonthecriticalpathislargeenoughthatthemeanofthe
sumoftheBetadistributionsisdistributedapproximatelyasthe
normaldistribution.
19.Widely used project management software includes MS
Project,MacProject,Primavera,MindView,HPProject,andFast
Track.
ETHICAL DILEMMA
Large projects with time/cost overruns are not uncommon
situations in the world of project management. Why do MIS
projectscommonlysport200300%costoverrunsandcompletion
times twice those projected? Why do massive construction
projectsrunsolateandsooverbudget?
Studentsareexpectedtoreadaboutsuchprojectsandcome
upwithexplanations,especiallyrelatedtoethics.Inthecaseof
MIS projects, long software development tasks are almost
doomedtofailurebecauseofthechangesintechnologyandstaff
thattakeplace.Itsanecessitytobreaklargeprojectsdowninto
smaller3to 6monthmodulesorpiecesthatareselfcontained.
Thisprotectstheorganizationfromatotallossshouldthemassive
projectneverbecompleted.
4.WhathappenswhenyouincreaseBby1moreweekafterit
becomescritical?
ActivitiesA,C,andEbecomenoncritical,andtheproject
takes1additionalweek.
5.Suppose that building codes may change and, as a result,
activityBwouldhavetobecompletedbeforeactivityCcouldbe
started.Howwouldthisaffecttheproject?
Activity B becomes critical, and the project takes 1
additionalweek.
CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
END-OF-CHAPTER PROBLEMS
3.1SomepossibleLevel3[(a)]andLevel4[(b)]activitiesforthehouseappearforeachLevel2activitybelow.
14
15
CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
3.2HerearesomedetailedactivitiestoaddtoDaysWBS:*
1.11 Setinitialgoalsforfundraising
1.12 Setstrategyincludingidentifyingsourcesand
solicitation
1.13 Raisethefunds
1.21 Identifyvotersconcerns
1.22 Analyzecompetitorsvotingrecord
CriticalpathisACFGI.Time=21days.
ThisisanAOAnetwork.
1.23 Establishpositionsonissues
1.31 Hirecampaignmanagerandpoliticaladvisor
1.32 Getvolunteers
(b)CriticalpathisBDEG
1.33 Hireastaff
1.34 Hiremediaconsultants
1.41 Identifyfilingdeadlines
1.42 Fileforcandidacy
(b,c)Therearefourpaths:
1.51 Trainstaffforauditplanning
Studentscouldmakemanyotherchoices.
*Source:ModifiedfromanexamplefoundinM.HannaandW.Newman,
OperationsManagement:PrenticeHall,UpperSaddleRiver,
NJ(2001):p.722.
3.3
3.4
Path
Time
(hours)
ACEG
BDFG
ACDFG
BEG
19.5
24.9
28.7 (critical)
15.7
CriticalpathisACFH.Time=21days.
ThisisanAONnetwork.
3.6 (a)
Activity Time
ES
EF
LS
LF
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
0
0
0
5
15
1
18
2
5
1
15
18
7
26
13
0
11
5
15
12
18
15
5
12
15
18
18
26
3.7 (a)
2
5
1
10
3
6
8
Slack Critical
13
0
11
0
0
11
0
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
3.8
3.9(a)AONnetwork:
(b)AOAnetwork:
3.10
Note:ActivitytimesareshownasanaidforProblem3.11.Theyarenot
requiredinthesolutiontoProblem3.10.
CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
3.11
16
(b,c)
Activity
Time
ES
EF
LS
LF
6
7
3
2
4
6
10
7
0
0
6
6
7
7
11
13
6
7
9
8
11
13
21
20
2
0
8
12
7
8
11
14
8
7
11
14
11
14
21
21
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
Slack Critical
2
0
2
6
0
1
0
1
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
ThecriticalpathisgivenforactivitiesB,E,G.
Totalprojectcompletiontimeis21weeks.
3.12(a)
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
Time
5.83
3.67
2.00
7.00
4.00
10.00
2.17
6.00
11.00
16.33
7.33
ES
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
9.00
13.00
13.00
23.00
15.17
2.00
29.00
EF
5.83
3.67
2.00
9.00
13.00
23.00
15.17
29.00
26.17
18.33
36.33
LS
7.17
5.33
0.00
2.00
9.00
13.00
15.83
23.00
18.00
20.00
29.00
LF Slack Critical
13.00 7.17
No
9.00 5.33
No
2.00 0.00
Yes
9.00 0.00
Yes
13.00 0.00
Yes
23.00 0.00
Yes
18.00 2.83
No
29.00 0.00
Yes
29.00 2.83
No
36.33 18.00
No
36.33 0.00
Yes
ThecriticalpathisgivenbyactivitiesC,D,E,F,H,K.Average
projectcompletiontimeis36.33days.
(b,c)
Task
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
Time
ES
EF
LS
LF
Slack
9
7
3
6
9
4
6
5
3
0
9
9
16
16
12
25
22
31
9
16
12
22
25
16
31
27
34
0
9
18
20
16
21
25
26
31
9
16
21
26
25
25
31
31
34
0
0
9
4
0
9
0
4
0
P t 40 P z
P z 1.61 0.946
2.28
3.15(a)AONdiagramoftheproject:
Activitiesonthecriticalpath:A,B,E,G,I
Projectcompletiontime34
3.13
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
11
27
18
8
17
16
15
31
18
13
18
19
19
41
18
19
20
22
t=
a +4m + b
6
15
32
18
13.17
18.17
19
b a
Varianc
6
e
1.33
2.33
0
1.83
0.5
1
3.14(a)
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
3
2
1
6
2
6
1
3
10
14
2
6
4
2
7
4
10
2
6
11
16
8
8
4
3
8
6
14
4
9
12
20
10
Expected Variance
5.83
3.67
2.00
7.00
4.00
10.00
2.17
6.00
11.00
16.33
7.33
0.69
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.44
1.78
0.25
1.00
0.11
1.00
1.78
17
CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
2.Nowbothpathsthrougharecritical.Wewouldneedto
shortenAorF,orshortenCandeitherB/E.Thisisnot
worthit,sowewouldnotbothertocrashanyfurther.
3.17
(a)Estimated(expected)timeforC[8(412)16]/6
72/6
12weeks
(16 8)
6
(b)VarianceforCis
16
1.78
9
(c)CriticalpathisACFHJK
(d)Timeoncriticalpath7.67129.6726.67
2.1740.18weeks(rounded)
(e)Varianceoncriticalpath11.785.4401.78
0.0310.03
36 40.18
(f)Z =
= 1.32, whichisabout9.6%chance
3.17
(.096probability)ofcompletingprojectbeforeweek36.
Note that based on possible rounding in part (d)
where time on critical path could be 40.3the
probabilitycanbeaslowas8.7%.Soastudentanswer
between8.7%and9.6%isvalid.
CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
18
SummarytableforProblem3.17follows:
Activity
Activity Early
Time
Start
Early
Finish
Late Start
Late
Finish
Slack
Standard
Deviatio
n
A
B
7.66
9.66
0
7.66
7.66
17.33
0.0
8
7.66
17.66
0
0.33
1
3.66
C
D
12
6.33
7.66
7.66
19.66
14
7.66
25
19.66
31.33
0
17.33
1.33
1
E
F
2
9.66
17.33
19.66
19.33
29.33
17.66
19.66
19.66
29.33
0.33
0
0.33
2.33
G
H
I
J
K
3
2
6
6.66
2.16
19.66
29.33
29.33
31.33
38
22.66
31.33
35.33
38
40.17
28.33
29.33
32
31.33
38
31.33
31.33
38
38
40.17
8.66
0
2.66
0
0
0.33
0
0
1.33
0.17
3.18
FigureforProblem3.20
CriticalpathCEat12days.
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
Maximum Crash
1
2
1
2
3
CrashCby1day($100)to11daystotal
NowcrashEby1day($200)andAby1day($100)to10days
total.
NowcrashEby2days($400)andDby2days($300)to8days
total.
Totaladditionalcosttocrash4days$1,100.
3.19Crashcostsperunittimeare$600forA,$900forB,and
$1,000 for C. (a) A offers the cheapest path to a single day
reduction.(b)Acannotsupplyasecondreduction,sothenext
bestchoiceisB,whichadds$900.(c)Thetotalforbothdaysis
$1,500.
3.20(a)Projectcompletiontime16(ActivitiesADG)
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
Norm. Time
Crash Time
Crash $Normal
$
1
1
0
4
3
1
2
Activity
day
days
day
days
days
Tocrashby4days,from12daysto8days:
Activit
y
(d)
$600
600
0
300
300
1,200
600
(b)Totalcost$12,300.
(c)CrashD1weekatanadditionalcostof$75.
$/time
$600
600
75
100
1,200
300
Crash
D
G
A
E
4
2
1
1
7 weeks
3.21(a) Activit
Cost
$300
600
600
100
$1,600
te
9
4
9
5
10
10
10
8
11
16
11
11
10
10
10
8
A
B
C
D
Varianc
e
0.11
4
0.11
1
(b)CriticalpathisA C withmean(te)completiontimeof
20weeks.TheotherpathisBD,withmean
completiontimeof18weeks.
(c)VarianceofA C (VarianceofA)(VarianceofC)
0.110.110.22
VarianceofBD(VarianceofB)+(VarianceofD)
415
(d)ProbabilityACisfinishedin22weeksorless
22 20
P Z
P ( Z 4.26) 1.00
0.22
(e)ProbabilityBDisfinishedin22weeksorless
22 18
P Z
P ( Z 1.79) 0.963
5
(f) Thecriticalpathhasarelativelysmallvarianceandwill
almostcertainlybefinishedin22weeksorless.PathBD
hasarelativelyhighvariance.Duetothis,theprobabilityB
Disfinishedin22weeksorlessisonlyabout0.96.Since
theprojectisnotfinisheduntilallactivities(andpaths)are
19
CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
finished,theprobabilitythattheprojectwillbefinishedin22
weeksorlessisnot1.00butisapproximately0.96.
3.22(a)
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
4
1
6
5
1
2
1
4
1
2
8
2
1
6
6
2
6
8
9
3
7
4
6
5
9
4
2
8
7
3
6
11
18
6
8
6
8
7
11
6
3
10
Activit Time
y
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
5.83
2.00
6.00
8.00
9.17
3.33
6.17
4.33
5.50
4.83
9.17
4.00
2.00
8.00
5.83
2.00
6.00
8.00
9.17
3.33
6.17
4.33
5.50
4.83
9.17
4.00
2.00
8.00
ES
EF
LS
LF
0.00
0.00
5.83
5.83
11.83
13.83
13.83
21.00
25.33
30.83
30.83
35.66
40.00
42.00
5.83
2.00
11.83
13.83
21.00
17.16
20.00
25.33
30.83
35.66
40.00
39.66
42.00
50.00
0.00
9.83
5.83
9.67
11.83
17.67
19.16
21.00
25.33
33.17
30.83
38.00
40.00
42.00
5.83
11.83
11.83
17.67
21.00
21.00
25.33
25.33
30.83
38.00
40.00
42.00
42.00
50.00
Slack Critical
0.00
9.83
0.00
3.84
0.00
3.84
5.33
0.00
0.00
2.34
0.00
2.34
0.00
0.00
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
*ThecriticalpathisgivenbyactivitiesA,C,E,H,I,K,M,N.
Completiontimeis50days.
(b)P(Completionin53days).Variancesoncriticalpath
=10.55so,cp=3.25.
53 50
P t 53 P z
P z 0.92 0.821 82.1%
3.25
(c)
x - 50
3.25
wherez = 2.33for99%probability.
x - 50
so 2.33=
.Then
3.25
x = 50 + (2.33)(3.25) = 57.57 @58days
P z
3.23
(a)Thisprojectmanagementproblemcanbesolvedusing
PERT.Theresultsarebelow.Asyoucansee,thetotalproject
completiontimeisabout32weeks.Thecriticalpathconsistsof
activitiesC,H,M,andO.
Projectcompletiontime32.05
2
13 - 10
3
9
Variance (C) =
=
=
6
6
36
2
9 - 5
16
Variance(H) =
= 36
6
2
2.25
6.5 - 5
Variance(M) =
= 36
CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
3.24
8 - 5
= 9
Variance(O) =
36
(a)Probabilityofcompletionis17monthsorless:
17 21
P t 17 P z
P z 2.0
2
9 16 2.25 9
Projectvariance= +
+
+
1.00
36 36 36 36
Projectstandarddeviation1.00
Activity Early Early
Activity Time
Start Finish
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
2.16
3.5
11.83
5.16
3.83
7
3.92
7.47
10.32
3.83
4
4
5.92
1.23
6.83
7
0
0
0
0
0
2.17
3.5
11.83
11.83
11.83
5.16
3.83
19.3
15.66
25.22
16.9
(b)Probabilityofcompletionin20monthsorless:
Late
Late
Start Finish Slack
2.16 10.13
3.5
11.88
11.83 0
5.16 14.65
3.83 15.98
9.16 12.3
7.42 15.38
19.3
11.83
22.15 14.9
15.66 19.98
9.16 19.82
7.83 19.82
25.22 19.3
16.9
23.82
32.05 25.22
23.9
25.05
12.3
15.38
11.83
19.82
19.82
19.3
19.3
19.3
25.22
23.82
23.82
23.82
25.22
22.05
32.05
32.05
10.13
11.88
0
14.65
15.98
10.13
11.88
0
3.06
8.15
14.65
15.98
0
8.15
0
8.15
(b) Ascanbeseeninthefollowinganalysis,thechangesdo
nothaveanyimpactonthecriticalpathorthetotalproject
completiontime.Asummaryoftheanalysisisbelow.
Projectcompletiontime32.05
Projectstandarddeviation1.00
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Activity Early
Time
Start
2.16
3.5
11.83
5.16
3.83
7
3.92
7.46
0
0
4
4
5.92
1.23
6.83
7
0
0
0
0
0
2.16
3.5
11.83
11.83
11.83
5.16
3.83
19.3
11.83
25.22
13.06
20
Early
Finish
Late Late
Start Finish Slack
2.16
3.5
11.83
5.16
3.83
9.16
7.42
19.3
11.83
11.83
9.16
7.83
25.22
13.06
32.05
20.06
10.13
11.88
0
14.65
15.98
12.3
15.38
11.83
25.22
23.82
19.82
19.82
19.3
23.82
25.22
25.05
12.3
15.38
11.83
19.82
19.82
19.3
19.3
19.3
25.22
23.82
23.82
23.82
25.22
22.05
32.05
32.05
10.13
11.88
0
14.65
15.98
10.13
11.88
0
13.38
11.98
14.65
15.98
0
11.98
0
11.98
20 21
P t 20 P z
P z 0.5
2
P t 23 P z
2
P z 1.0 0.84134
(d)Probabilityofcompletionin25monthsorless:
25 21
P t 25 P z
P z 2.0 0.97725
2
(e)
x 21
P z
1.645fora95%chanceofcompletion
2
bythex date.
Thenx 21 2(1.645)
24.29, or24months.
21
CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
3.25
(a)
Project completion time = 14 weeks
ES
EF
LS
LF
Time
Task
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
3
2
1
7
6
2
4
0
0
0
3
2
1
10
3
2
1
10
8
3
14
0
2
11
3
4
12
10
3
4
12
10
10
14
14
Slack
0
2
11
0
2
11
0
(b)Tocrashto10weeks,wefollow2steps:
1. CrashDby2weeks($150).
2. CrashDandEby2weekseach($100$150).
Totalcrashcost$400additional
(c) UsingPOMforWindowssoftware, minimum project
completion time 7. Additional crashing cost =
$1,550.
Normal Crash Normal Crash Crash Crash Crashing
Time Time
Cost
Cost Cost/Pd By
Cost
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
3
2
1
7
6
2
4
3.26
(a)
2
1
1
3
3
1
2
1,000
2,000
300
1,300
850
4,000
1,500
1,600
2,700
300
1,600
1,000
5,000
2,000
600
700
0
75
50
1,000
250
1
0
0
4
3
0
2
600
0
0
300
150
0
500
CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
3.26
3.29
(b)
Task
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
Time
ES
EF
LS
LF
Slack
0.0*
8.0
0.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
4.0
2.0
1.0
0.5
2.0
1.0
1.5
5.0
1.0
0.5
1.0
0.0*
0.0
0.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
9.0
8.0
8.0
10.0
8.0
12.0
14.0
15.0
11.0
13.0
13.0
8.1
15.5
16.5
17.0
18.0
0.0
8.0
8.1
9.0
9.0
10.0
10.0
11.0
11.0
12.0
14.0
15.0
15.5
13.0
14.0
14.5
13.1
16.5
17.0
18.0
18.0
0.0
0.0
10.4
12.0
10.0
13.0
9.0
11.0
11.0
8.0
12.0
14.0
15.0
12.0
14.5
14.0
10.5
15.5
16.5
17.0
18.0
0.0
8.0
10.5
13.0
11.0
14.0
11.0
14.0
12.0
12.0
14.0
15.0
15.5
14.0
15.5
15.5
15.5
16.5
17.0
18.0
18.0
0.0
0.0
2.4
4.0
2.0
4.0
1.0
3.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.5
1.0
2.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Note:Start(A)andFinish(U)areassignedtimesofzero.
CriticalpathisABJKLMRSTU,for18days.
(c)(i)no,transmissionsanddrivetrainsarenotonthe
criticalpath.
22
(a)
(b)
Activity Time
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
7
3
9
4
5
8
8
6
ES
EF
LS
LF
Slack
0
7
7
16
16
21
29
37
7
10
16
20
21
29
37
43
0
13
7
25
16
21
29
37
7
16
16
29
21
29
37
43
0
6
0
9
0
0
0
0
2
1
3
1
1
2
1
2
4*
1*
9*
1*
1*
4*
1*
4*
AONnetwork
(ii)no,halvingenginebuildingtimewillreducethe
criticalpathbyonlyoneday.
(iii)no,itisnotonthecriticalpath.
(d)Reallocatingworkersnotinvolvedwithcriticalpath
activities to activities along the critical path will
reducethecriticalpathlength.
CriticalpathisBD,at13days
Activity
3.27
A
B
C
D
E
(a)
Maximum Crash
(days)
1
2
1
2
3
day
days
day
days
days
Tocrashby4days,from13daysto9days,
(b)CriticalpathisBEFH.
(c)Time=16weeks
3.28
(a)Expectedtimesforindividualactivities(using(a+4m
+b)/6)).A=5,B=6,C=7,D=6,E=3.Expected
projectcompletiontime=15(ActivitiesACE).
(b)Varianceforindividualactivities(using[(ba)/6]2).
A = 1; B = 1; C = 1; D = 4; E = 0. Project
variance=variancesoncriticalpath=1+1+0=2.
CrashBby1day($50)toreach12days
CrashBbyasecondday($50)andCby1day($100)to
reach11days.
CrashDby2days($300)andEby2days($400)to
reach9daystotal.
Totalcosttocrash4days=$900
23
3.31
CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
(a)
90 68.7
P t 90 P z
3.51
(b)Expectedtimesandvariances:
Activity
Expected
Time
Variance
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
8
6
3
10
6
9
6
14
10
6
4
1
10
7
3
20
7
10
7
15
11
7
7
2
12
9
4
30
8
11
10
16
13
8
8
4
10.0
7.2
3.2
20.0
7.0
10.0
7.3
15.0
11.2
7.0
6.7
2.2
0.44
0.25
0.03
11.11
0.11
0.11
0.44
0.11
0.25
0.11
0.44
0.25
(c)ES,EF,LS,LF,andslacktimes:
Activit Time
y
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
10.0
7.2
3.2
20.0
7.0
10.0
7.3
15.0
11.2
7.0
6.7
2.2
ES
EF
LS
LF
0.0
0.0
0.0
10.0
3.2
30.0
30.0
40.0
40.0
55.0
62.0
55.0
10.0
7.2
3.2
30.0
10.2
40.0
37.3
55.0
51.2
62.0
68.7
57.2
0.0
22.8
19.8
10.0
23.0
30.0
47.7
40.0
50.8
55.0
62.0
66.5
10.0
30.0
23.0
30.0
30.0
40.0
55.0
55.0
62.0
62.0
68.7
68.7
Slack Critica
l
0.0
22.8
19.8
0.0
19.8
0.0
17.7
0.0
10.8
0.0
0.0
11.5
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
(d)Thecriticalpathisgivenbytheactivities
A,D,F,H,J,K
Expectedprojectcompletiontimeis68.7days.
(e)Probabilityofcompletionin70daysorless:
Projectvariance
=Sumofvariancesofactivities
oncriticalpath
=0.4411.110.110.11
0.44=12.32
Standarddeviation=3.51
70 68.7
P t 70 P z
P z 0.37 0.644
3.51
(f)Probabilityofcompletionin80daysorless:
80 68.7
P t 80 P z
3.51
P z 3.22 0.99934
(g)Probabilityofcompletionin90daysorless:
P z 6.07 0.99999
CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
3.32TheoverallpurposeofProblem3.32istohavestudentsuse
anetworktosolveaproblemthatalmostallstudentsface.The
firststepisforstudentstolistallcoursesthattheymusttake,
includingpossibleelectives,togetadegreefromtheirparticular
collegeoruniversity.Foreverycourse,studentsshouldlistallthe
immediatepredecessors.Thenstudentsareaskedtoattemptto
develop a network diagram that shows these courses and their
immediatepredecessorsorprerequisitecourses.
Thisproblemcanalsopointoutsomeofthelimitationsof
the use of project management. As students try to solve this
problemtheymayrunintoseveraldifficulties.First,itisdifficult
toincorporateaminimumormaximumnumberofcoursesthata
student can take during a given semester. In addition, it is
difficultto scheduleelectivecourses.Someelectivecourseshave
prerequisites,
whileothersmaynot.Evenso,someoftheoverallapproachesof
networkanalysiscanbehelpfulintermsoflayingoutthecourses
thatarerequiredandtheirprerequisites.
Studentscanalsobeaskedtothinkaboutothertechniques
thatcanbeusedinsolvingthisproblem.Oneofthemostappropri
ateapproacheswouldbetouselinearprogrammingtoincorporate
manyoftheconstraints,suchasminimumandmaximumnumber
ofcredithourspersemester,thataredifficultorimpossibleto
incorporateinaprojectnetwork.
estimatesforeachactivity,theexpectedprojectlength,variance,
anddataforallactivities.Liketheothernetworkproblems,these
data include the earliest start time, earliest finish time, latest
starttime,latesttime,andslackforallactivities.Thedataareas
follows:
TableforProblem3.33
Opt
Times
Most
Pess
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
1.0
2.0
3.0
7.0
4.0
1.0
4.0
1.0
3.0
1.0
18.0
1.0
1.0
0.1
0.2
1.0
1.0
3.0
0.1
0.1
2.0
0.1
0.0
4.00
3.00
4.00
8.00
4.00
2.00
5.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
20.00
2.00
1.00
0.14
0.30
1.00
2.00
5.00
0.10
0.14
3.00
0.10
0.20
5.00
4.00
5.00
9.00
5.00
4.00
6.00
4.00
4.00
2.00
26.00
3.00
2.00
0.16
0.40
2.00
3.00
7.00
0.20
0.16
6.00
0.20
0.20
24
E(t)
ES
EF
LS
LF
Slack
3.67
3.00
4.00
8.00
4.17
2.17
5.00
2.17
3.83
1.17
20.67
2.00
1.17
0.14
0.30
1.17
2.00
5.00
0.12
0.14
3.33
0.12
0.17
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.17
0.50
0.33
0.50
0.17
0.17
1.33
0.33
0.17
1.00
0.03
0.17
0.33
0.67
0.02
0.00
0.67
0.02
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.67
4.00
8.00
13.00
7.83
3.00
0.00
15.17
20.67
21.83
21.97
21.97
23.14
25.14
30.14
30.25
30.25
30.39
33.59
3.67
3.00
4.00
8.00
7.83
6.17
13.00
15.17
11.67
4.17
20.67
17.17
21.83
21.97
22.27
23.14
25.14
30.14
30.25
30.39
33.59
30.50
33.75
9.00
16.50
14.50
3.50
12.67
18.50
11.50
16.50
16.83
19.50
0.00
18.67
20.67
21.83
24.84
21.97
23.14
25.14
30.14
33.33
30.25
33.47
33.59
12.67
19.50
18.50
11.50
16.83
20.67
16.50
18.67
20.67
20.67
20.67
20.67
21.83
21.97
25.14
23.14
25.14
30.14
30.25
33.47
33.59
33.58
33.75
9.00
16.50
14.50
3.50
9.00
14.50
3.50
3.50
9.00
16.5
0.00
3.50
0.00
0.00
2.87
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.08
0.00
3.08
0.00
As you can see, the expected project length is about 34 weeks. The activities along the critical path are activities
11,13,14,16,17,18,19,21,and23.
25
CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
CASE STUDY
SOUTHWESTERNUNIVERSITY:A
1.
3.
Crashto250daysandto240days
Activity
Activity Mean
tA = 30
tB = 60
tC = 65
tD = 55
tE = 30
tF = 0
tG = 30
tH = 20
tI = 30
tJ = 10
tK = 0
tL = 30
Criticalpath
S.D.
3.33*
10.00
8.33*
11.66*
1.67
0.10
1.67*
3.33*
6.67*
0.67
0.10
6.67*
Variance
11.11
100.00
69.39
136.10
2.78
0.00
2.78
11.11
44.44
0.44
0.00
44.44
=
A C D G H I L(260days)
Varianceofcriticalpath=11.11+69.39+136.1+2.78
Normal
Time (days)
A
30
B
60
C
65
D
55
E
30
F
0*
G
30
H
20
I
30
J
10
K
0*
L
30
*
Roundedtozerofrom0.1
Criticalpath
Standarddeviationofcriticalpath=17.87days
2.
P(Completion<270days)=P(t270)
270 260
P Z
17.87
Crash
Cost/Day
20
20
50
30
25
0
25
10
20
8
0
20
$1,500
$3,500
$4,000
$1,900
$9,500
$0
$2,500
$2,000
$2,000
$6,000
$0
$4,500
Tocrashto250days(fromthecurrent260days), select A at
$1,500/day10days=$15,000.
Tocrashto240daysnow(fromthecurrent250days),selectDat
$1,900/day10days=$19,000.
Totalcosttocrashto240days=$34,000additional.
+11.11 44.44+44.44=319.37
*
Crash
Time (days)
PROJECTMANAGEMENTATARNOLD
PALMERHOSPITAL
CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
Thesefiguresreflecttheimportanceofpreplanningplacedon
theproject.Ratherthanhavingtoredowallsorrooms,mockups
anddetailedplanningmeetingssavedtimeonthebackendand
resultedinabuildingthatmettheneedsofpatientsandstaffalike.It
alwayspaystospendextratimeonthefrontendofalargeproject.
2
MANAGINGHARDROCKSROCKFEST
Thereisashort(9minute)videoavailablefromPearsonPrenticeHall
andfilmedspecificallyforthistextthatsupplementsthiscase.
HardRocksES,EF,LS,LF,andslack:
26
2.ActivitiesC,K,L,M,N,Q,R,V,W,Y,andZhaveslacksof
8ormoreweeks
3.Majorchallenges aprojectmanagerfacesinaprojectlike
Rockfest:(1)keepingintouchwitheachpersonresponsible
formajoractivities,(2)lastminutesurprises,(3)costoverruns,
(4)toomanyfanstryingtoenterthevenue,(5)resignationsof
oneofthekeymanagersorpromoters,andmanyothers.
4. Workbreakdownstructure, withexampleofLevel1,2,3,4
tasks:
Networkdiagram
Activity
time
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
7
3
3
5
6
4
2
4
4
10
2
3
8
6
7
20
4
4
3
4
6
7
4
8
6
6
Early
Start
0
7
7
10
15
21
25
10
14
18
10
15
18
10
27
10
10
14
25
7
11
11
18
17
10
16
Early
Finish
7
10
10
15
21
25
27
14
18
28
12
18
26
16
34
30
14
18
28
11
17
18
22
25
16
22
Late
Start
0
7
18
10
15
21
25
16
20
24
21
23
26
28
27
14
19
23
31
13
17
23
30
23
22
28
Late
Finish
7
10
21
15
21
25
27
20
24
34
23
26
34
34
34
34
23
27
34
17
23
30
34
31
28
34
Slack
0
0
11
0
0
0
0
6
6
6
11
8
8
18
0
4
9
9
6
6
6
12
12
6
12
12
1.0Rockfestevent,withsiteselected(A)
1.1Selectlocalpromoter(B)
1.11Website(D)
[Level1]
[Level2]
[Level3]
1.12TVdeal(E)
1.13Hiredirector(F)
1.131Cameraplacement(G)
[Level4]
1.14Headlineentertainers(H)
1.141Supportentertainers(I)
1.142Travelfortalent(J)
1.143Passes/stagecredentials(O)
1.15Stafftravel(P)
1.16Merchandisedeals(Y)
1.161Onlinesalesofmerchandise(Z)
1.17Hiresponsorcoordinator(Q)
1.171Finalizesponsors(R)
1.172Signageforsponsors(S)
1.2Hireproductionmanager(C)
1.21Sound/staging(N)
1.22Venuecapacity(K)
1.221TicketMastercontract(L)
1.222Onsiteticketing(M)
27
CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
Thefollowingtableindicatestheexpectedtimes,variances,andslacksneededtocompletetherestofthecase:
1.3Hireoperationsmanager(T)
1.31Siteplan(U)Most
Activity
OptPower,etc.(X)
Likely Pess
E(t)
ES
EF
LS
LF
Slack
1.311
1
1.0
2.0
2.5
1.92
0.25
0.00
1.92
0.00
1.92
0.000
1.32Securitydirector(V)
2
1.5
2.0
2.5
2.00
0.17
1.92
3.92
1.92
3.92
0.000
1.321Setpolice/fireplan(W)
3
2.0
3.0
4.0
3.00
0.33
0.33
5
1.0
2.0
4.0
2.17
0.50
Level2activitiesshouldbeactivitiesB,C,andT.
6
2.0
2.5
3.0
2.50
0.17
*
7
2.0
4.0
3.83
0.50
ADDITIONAL
CASE S
TUDY5.0
8
1.0
2.0
3.0
2.00
0.33
SHALEOILCOMPANY
9
1.0
1.5
2.0
1.50
0.17
10
1.0
1.5
2.0
1.50
0.17
1.Determinethe expectedshutdown timeand theprobability
11
2.0
2.5
3.0
2.50
0.17
theshutdownwillbecompleted1weekearlier.
12
15.0
20.0
30.0
20.83
2.50
2.What
13
are the
1.0 probabilities
1.5
that
2.0 Shale1.50
finishes
0.17
the
14
3.0
5.0
8.0
5.17
0.83
maintenanceproject1day,2days,3days,4days,5days,or
15
8.0
15.0
8.33
2.00
6daysearlier?3.0
16
14.0
21.0
28.0
21.00
2.33
Fromtheprecedencedatasuppliedintheproblem,wecan
17
1.0
5.0
10.0
5.17
1.50
developthefollowingAONnetwork:
18
2.0
5.0
10.0
5.33
1.33
19
5.0
10.0
20.0
10.83
2.50
20
10.0
15.0
25.0
15.83
2.50
21
4.0
5.0
8.0
5.33
0.67
22
1.0
2.0
3.0
2.00
0.33
23
1.0
2.0
2.5
1.92
0.25
24
1.0
2.0
3.0
2.00
0.33
25
1.0
2.0
3.0
2.00
0.33
26
2.0
4.0
6.0
4.00
0.67
27
1.5
2.0
2.5
2.00
0.17
28
1.0
3.0
5.0
3.00
0.67
29
3.0
5.0
10.0
5.50
1.17
AnswersmayvarysomewhatattheLevel3andLevel4.
4
1.0
2.0
3.0
2.00
3.92
3.92
3.92
3.92
3.92
6.92
5.92
5.92
6.08
6.08
6.42
6.42
7.75
8.92
7.42
7.42
8.58
7.92
29.92
12.75
14.75
26.92
23.75
16.08
35.25
37.25
40.25
6.92
5.92
6.08
6.42
7.75
8.92
7.42
7.42
8.58
26.92
7.92
11.58
16.08
29.92
12.58
12.75
19.42
23.75
35.25
14.75
16.67
28.92
25.75
20.08
37.25
40.25
45.75
3.92
22.50
10.25
13.42
29.58
6.92
26.67
24.50
19.92
12.42
15.92
28.08
33.42
8.92
28.17
26.00
22.42
17.42
29.92
31.33
33.33
33.25
33.25
41.75
35.25
37.25
40.25
6.92
24.50
12.42
15.92
33.42
8.92
28.17
26.00
22.42
33.25
17.42
33.25
41.75
29.92
33.33
31.33
33.25
33.25
35.25
33.33
35.25
35.25
35.25
45.75
37.25
40.25
45.75
0.000
18.580
6.333
9.500
25.670
0.000
20.750
18.580
13.830
6.330
9.500
21.670
25.670
0.000
20.750
18.580
13.830
9.500
0.000
18.580
18.580
6.330
9.500
25.670
0.000
0.000
0.000
Fromthetable,wecanseethattheexpectedshutdowntimeis45.75,or46days.Therearenineactivitiesonthecriticalpath.
Activity
1
2
3
8
16
21
27
28
29
Variance for critical path:
0.25
0.17
0.33
0.33
2.33
0.67
0.17
0.67
1.17
0.0625
0.0289
0.1089
0.1089
5.4289
0.4489
0.0289
0.4489
1.3689
8.033
7
Duedate E (t )
CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
Finish Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
day early
days early
days early
days early
days early
days early
days early
z
0.353
0.706
1.058
1.411
1.764
2.117
2.470
Probability
36.3
24.0
14.5
7.9
3.9*
1.7
0.7
Theappropriateprocedureforusingthenormaldistributiongives3.0%
roughlya30%difference.
*
Thereis,bytheapproximateprocedureused,a3.9%probability
offinishing5days,or1week,early.
3.ShaleOilisconsideringincreasingthebudgettoshortenthe
shutdown.Howdoyousuggestthecompanyproceed?
In order to shorten the shutdown, Shale Oil would have to
determinethecostsofdecreasingtheactivitiesonthecritical
path. This is the vessel and column branch of the network,
whichistypicallythelongestsectioninashutdown.Thecost
ofreducingactivitytimebyonetimeunitforeachactivityin
thisbranchwouldhavetobecalculated.Theactivitywiththe
lowestofthesecostscouldthenbeactedupon.Perhapsthe
repairs to the vessels and columns could be expedited with
workersfromsomeoftheotherbrancheswithhighslacktime.
However,deliveryonmaterialscouldbeanoverridingfactor.
28