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September 2016
Arizona Questionnaire
Residents:n=1102 MOE +/- 3.0%
Registered Voters: n=946 MOE +/- 3.2%
Likely Voters: n=649 MOE +/- 3.8%
Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Screener
<Marist Poll Introduction> Are you 18 years of age or older?
Do you consider your permanent home address to be in Arizona?
HH SELECTION LANDLINE FRAME ONLY
GENDER GUESS
September 2016
46
50
5
100
REGISTERED VOTERS
September 2016
47
47
6
100
RESIDENTS
September 2016
48
44
7
100
Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total
Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total
If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support
if the candidates are [including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a
candidate]:
LIKELY VOTERS
Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the Democrats
Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Republicans
Neither
Other
Undecided
Total
September 2016
41
42
10
2
4
100
REGISTERED VOTERS
Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the Democrats
September 2016
41
40
13
2
4
100
Would you say you strongly support <candidate>, somewhat support them, or
do you think you might vote differently on Election Day [including those who
are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate]?
LIKELY VOTERS WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
Strongly support
September 2016
63
Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Unsure
Total
30
5
1
100
September 2016
58
Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Unsure
Total
34
7
1
100
If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support
if the candidates are [including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a
candidate]:
LIKELY VOTERS
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
September 2016
38
40
12
3
1
6
100
September 2016
37
37
13
4
2
7
100
September 2016
34
Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total
61
5
100
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
September 2016
33
Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total
61
6
100
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Donald
Trump?
LIKELY VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total
September 2016
35
58
7
100
REGISTERED VOTERS
September 2016
32
60
8
100
RESIDENTS
September 2016
31
61
8
100
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total
September 2016
33
60
7
100
If November's election for U.S. Senate in Arizona were held today, whom
would you support if the candidates are [including those who are undecided
yet leaning toward a candidate]:
LIKELY VOTERS
Ann Kirkpatrick, the Democrat
John McCain, the Republican
Other
Undecided
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Ann Kirkpatrick, the Democrat
John McCain, the Republican
Other
Undecided
Total
Would you say you strongly support <candidate>, somewhat support them, or
do you think you might vote differently on Election Day?
LIKELY VOTERS WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
Strongly support
September 2016
38
57
1
4
100
September 2016
38
57
1
5
100
September 2016
53
Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Unsure
Total
37
8
1
100
September 2016
51
Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Unsure
Total
38
9
2
100
September 2016
48
52
100
REGISTERED VOTERS
September 2016
48
52
100
RESIDENTS
September 2016
49
51
100
Male
Female
Total
Male
Female
Total
Male
Female
Total
Nature of the Sample: NBC News/WSJ/Marist Arizona Poll of 1,102 Adults
This survey of 1,102 adults was conducted September 6th through September 8th, 2016 by The Marist
Poll sponsored and funded in partnership with NBC News and The Wall Street Journal. Adults 18 years of
age and older residing in the state of Arizona were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and
interviewed in English or Spanish by telephone using live interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were
randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state of Arizona from
ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in
proportion to its population. Respondents in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the
youngest male. This landline sample was combined with respondents reached through random dialing of
mobile phone numbers from Survey Sampling International. Assistance was provided by Luce Research
for data collection. After the interviews were completed, the two samples were combined and balanced to
reflect the 2013 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, and region,
except for race, which is from the 2010 Census. Results are statistically significant within 3.0 percentage
points. There are 946 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within 3.2
percentage points. There are 649 likely voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines
the likelihood respondents will participate in the 2016 Presidential Election based upon their chance of
vote, interest in the election, and past election participation. The results for this subset are statistically
significant within 3.8 percentage points. The error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and
increases for cross-tabulations.
For nature of the sample and additional tables, please visit The Marist Poll