Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Table of Contents
Economics of an LNG project
Cost Escalation Trends
Competition vs US L48
Alaska LNG Competitiveness Sensitivities
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Of LNG projects under construction, 5 will spend over $10 billion just on liquefaction
Even cheaper need ~$2 billion in liquefaction investment
$bn
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Liquefaction OPEX
Upstream OPEX
Revenue
CAPEX
-3
-4
-4
-2
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
$bn
15
10
350
5
300
0
250
-5
200
150
-10
100
-15
50
0
2015
-20
2005
2025
2035
2045
2055
2065
2025
2045
2065
Required Reserves
3,000
2,500
2,000
mmboe
1,500
1,000
2,500
2,000
1,000
500
0.85
30,000
20,000
625
10,000
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2,600
IRR
$/boe
NPV10/boe
3.36
38,300
40,000
1,500
500
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
50,000
2,476
Production Life
60
29%
Years
$mm
2,000 2,000
Initial CAPEX
$mm
NPV10
11%
50
50
40
30
20
10
0
20
Table of Contents
Economics of an LNG project
Cost Escalation Trends
Competition vs US L48
Alaska LNG Competitiveness Sensitivities
0.13x
0.14x
0.15x
0.16x
$60/bbl Brent
$7.80
$8.40
$9.00
$9.60
$80/bbl Brent
$10.40
$11.20
$12.00
$12.80
$100/bbl Brent
$13.00
$14.00
$15.00
$16.00
$120/bbl Brent
$15.60
$16.80
$18.00
$19.20
$140/bbl Brent
$18.20
$19.60
$21.00
$22.40
Yemen LNG
Qalhat LNG
Qatargas III
Qatargas IV
RasGas II (T3)
RasGas III
Qatargas II (T2)
Qatargas II (T1)
Atlantic
ADGAS LNG T3
RasGas I
RasGas II (T1-2)
Qatargas I
Snohvit LNG T1
ELNG T1
SEGAS LNG T1
ELNG T2
Sakhalin 2 T1-2
EG LNG T1
NLNG T6
NLNG T4-5
Asia-Pacific
NLNG T3
NLNG T1-2
ALNG T1
ALNG T2-3
ALNG T4
Kenai LNG
Arzew/Skikda
Pluto LNG T1
$/MMBtu
Bontang LNG
Peru LNG
Arun LNG
$15
Darwin LNG T1
$20
$/ton
Upstream Breakeven*
Total Breakeven
1,800
$10
1,200
$5
600
$0
($5)
Middle East
(600)
Scarborough LNG
Bonaparte LNG
Under Construction
Gorgon LNG T4
BC LNG T1-2
Tangguh LNG T3
PETRONAS FLNG
Prelude LNG
Existing
Donggi-Senoro LNG
PETRONAS LNG T9
$/MMBtu
Pluto LNG T1
$20
Bontang LNG
Peru LNG
Arun LNG
$15
Darwin LNG T1
$/ton
Upstream Breakeven*
Liquef action Breakeven*
Total Breakeven
Liquef action Unit Cost (RHS)
1,800
$10
1,200
$5
600
$0
Proposed
($5)
(600)
Latest
% Change
$/ton
2,467
$/MMBtu
10.42
$/ton
3,712*
$/MMBtu
13.72
$/ton
50%
$/MMBtu
32%
Pluto LNG T1
2,256
11.84
3,477
15.34
54%
30%
2,273
10.15
2,754
12.99
21%
28%
QC LNG T1-2
1,765
6.54
2,400
8.43
36%
29%
2,051
9.79
2,372
10.95
16%
12%
Angola LNG T1
1,346
7.18
1,923
10.91
43%
52%
*Press indicates Gorgon LNG's cost review will reveal a substantial increase.
3,500
Liquef action
Upstream
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Liquefaction
Upstream
$/ton
Existing
640
558
Under Construction
1,331
1,308
Proposed
1,168
1,121
$/ton
3,000
Greenfield Asia
Pacific Projects
Table of Contents
Economics of an LNG project
Cost Escalation Trends
Competition vs US L48
Alaska LNG Competitiveness Sensitivities
2%
2%
7%
3%
US
40%
4%
Canada
Australia
Russia
Mozambique
9%
Tanzania
Others
17%
20
Japan
15
EU-Oil
10
NBP
5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
US
Greenfield
Sabine Pass
Brownfield
$/MMBtu
10
Premium
to HH
12.7
Shipping
(Korea)
2.8
Liquefaction
Fee
3.0
Gas
Surcharge
0.9
6.0
Henry Hub
$/MMBtu
10
15
25
12.7
20
Shipping
(Korea)
2.8
15
Liquefaction
Fee
Japan
LNG
3.0
10
Gas
Surcharge
0.9
5
Est. US-LNG
into Japan
6.0
Henry Hub
$/MMBtu
10
15
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Sabine Pass
@6 Hub
Sabine Pass
@4 Hub
5 $/MMBtu 10
15
Table of Contents
Economics of an LNG project
Cost Escalation Trends
Competition vs US L48
Alaska LNG Competitiveness Sensitivities
$bn
$50
$45
$40
20
$35
$30
$25
$20
46
12
$15
$10
$5
14
$0
Upstream & Gas
Treatment
Pipeline
Liquef action
Total Cost
Gorgon LNG
Angola LNG
Pluto LNG
Snohvit LNG
PETRONAS FLNG
Prelude LNG
Mozambique LNG
Donggi-Senoro LNG
Bonaparte LNG
1,500
Yamal LNG
Tanzania LNG
$/ton
Oregon LNG
RasGas II (T3)
Arun LNG
PETRONAS LNG T9
2,500
2,000
$1,111/ton
1,000
500
$/MMBtu
$16
$14
$12
$10
$8
$6
Gas price
required to
achieve a 15%
IRR on $14 bn
Upstream and
GTP
Investment,
with only 12.5%
Royalty applied
$4
$2
Tariff required
to achieve a
12% IRR on
$20 bn
liquefaction
facility
0.7
4.7
2.54
11.14
10.44
3.2
$0
Upstream &
Gas
Treatment
Pipeline
Shipping
CIF/DES
Cost
What if Liquefaction Cost Reached $/ton Costs of AsiaPacific LNG or PNG LNG?
~$1,300/ton
At this unit cost level, liquefaction spend would be ~$22.7bn
$/MMBtu
$16
$14
0.7
$12
$10
5.33
$8
$6
2.54
$4
$2
11.77
11.07
3.2
$0
Upstream &
Gas
Treatment
Pipeline
Shipping
CIF/DES
Cost
0.7
$14
$12
$10
6.99
$8
2.54
$4
$2
13.43
12.73
$6
3.2
$0
Upstream &
Gas
Treatment
Pipeline
Shipping
CIF/DES
Cost
0.7
$14
$12
$10
7.91
$8
2.54
$4
$2
14.35
13.65
$6
3.2
$0
Upstream &
Gas
Treatment
Pipeline
Shipping
CIF/DES
Cost
0.7
$14
$12
7.91
$10
$8
$6
2.54
$4
$2
14.7
14
3.55
$0
Upstream &
Gas
Treatment
Pipeline
Shipping
CIF/DES
Cost
0.7
$14
$12
7.91
$10
$8
15.96
15.26
$6
3.18
$4
$2
4.17
$0
Upstream &
Gas
Treatment
Pipeline
Shipping
CIF/DES
Cost
Scarborough LNG
Bonaparte LNG
Under Construction
Gorgon LNG T4
BC LNG T1-2
Tangguh LNG T3
PETRONAS FLNG
Prelude LNG
Existing
Donggi-Senoro LNG
PETRONAS LNG T9
$/MMBtu
Pluto LNG T1
$20
Bontang LNG
Peru LNG
Arun LNG
$15
Darwin LNG T1
$/ton
Upstream Breakeven*
Liquef action Breakeven*
Total Breakeven
Liquef action Unit Cost (RHS)
1,800
$10
1,200
$5
600
$0
Proposed
($5)
(600)