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VALUES

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM EST, SEPTEMBER 13, 2016


PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 5,250 Canadians by Chimera IVR from September 7-8, 2016. A mixture of landlines and
cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.35%, 19 times out of 20. Conservative Leadership Race margin of error: +/- 2.48%,
19 times out of 20. Total Conservative respondents: 1,564.

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected


by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

VALUES ISSUES BLOWS UP TORY LEADERSHIP RACE


Sept. 13/16, (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds the Conservative Party leadership race
has blown wide open. With 5,250 Canadians surveyed from September 7-8, the Mainstreet/Postmedia
Phone Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.35%, 19 times out of 20.
Liberals Supported by Majority of Canadians
Canadians are giving Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberals an extended honeymoon as we near 11
months since their election to a majority government, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.
Their support is increasing in fact and now represents a clear majority at 51% among decided and leaning
voters.
These numbers are unprecedented and signal growing support for the Prime Minister and his
governments aggressive agenda. This is being driven by Trudeaus' personal popularity and his
international attention highlighted this summer with a visit to China that was widely followed.
The Conservatives continue to maintain their support with Interim leader Rona Ambrose at the helm. Just
under 3 in 10 voters say they support the Conservatives (29%) with their leads in Alberta and Saskatchewan
continuing, although down slightly since April 2016. As the Conservative leadership contest comes in to full
swing and media attention increases exposure for some lesser known candidates, we would expect these
numbers to move but with continued strength for the Liberals and the popularity of Trudeau, it's unclear in
which direction.
Meanwhile, the federal NDP spiral continues as their support continues to plumb new depths under interim
leader Thomas Mulcair. Recent reports of a movement to see him exit ahead of the next NDP leadership as
planned may lead to greater instability and little change in support. It is hard to imagine that a year ago at
this time, Mulcair and the NDP were largely considered as the likely successors to Harper and the
Conservatives. Their support across Canada now sits at just 12% among decided and leaning voters, down
another 2% from their previous levels.
The NDP leadership contest has done little to draw attention or interest in the NDP as most early favourites
have opted to pass. New candidates may emerge in time that bring some energy and attention to the
federal NDP.
Conservative Leadership Race Blown wide open
It appears that the fortunes of Kellie Leitch have risen from the ashes in her bid to become the next leader
of the Conservative Party. Recent media attention surrounding her controversial proposal to screen
immigrants for "Canadian values" has resulted in a signicant increase in her prole and her popularity
among Conservative voters. Although her support and approvals remains behind the front runner, Peter
McKay, at 15% she trails by only 4 to his 19% support and leads a large eld followed by Tony Clement at 11%
and newcomers Andrew Scheer and Erin O'Toole who both came in at 9% support among Conservative
voters. This race has now been blown wide open.
Beyond the level of support for Kellie Leitch, this issue has resulted in her approval to increase from just
12% in April to 28% although her disapproval has also increased from 12% to 23%. Most signicantly, overall
awareness of her among Conservative voters is up with just 24% saying they weren't familiar with Ms. Leitch
compared to over one third in April. (34%)

A3

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected


by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.
The exit of Jason Kenney from this race and the less and less likely candidacy of American reality TV star
Kevin O'Leary has opened the door to new contenders. Whether this increase in support for Kellie Leitch,
or the signicant support for Scheer and O'Toole is a long term trend remains to be seen.
The biggest losers in this race appear to be those candidates that have most vocally opposed immigrant
screening. This includes Michael Chong and Maxime Bernier who both remain at. Berniers lead among
Quebec Conservative supporters has evaporated. This reminds me of Mulcair during the 2015 federal
election, where his position on the niqab debate, alienated supporters in Quebec.
Canadian support for core Values and Immigrant screening
65% of Canadians support the reproductive rights of women, including two thirds of women with just 25%
against and 1 in 10 not sure. (11%) When asked about a same sex couples rights to marry, 70% agree while
16% disagree and 14% are unsure. 37% of Canadians say immigrants who don't support reproductive rights
or same sex marriage rights should be allowed to come to Canada compared to 24% who would bar those
who don't support reproductive rights and 36% who would say the same for those who don't support same
sex marriage.
Conservative voters are more likely to support screening immigrants for support of both reproductive
rights or same sex marriage rights when compared to Liberal and NDP voters, 33% of Conservatives, 27%
of NDP voters and just 18% of Liberals.
Most interestingly, 26% of those who don't support abortion themselves say that immigrants who oppose
should not be allowed in Canada. Similarly, 43% of those who disagree with same sex marriage themselves
say immigrants should be barred who don't support same sex marriage.
Majority Concerned about "lone wolf" terrorist attacks
A Majority of Canadians (54%) are concerned about the possibility of "lone wolf" terrorism in Canada
including almost 1 in 3 who are very concerned (29%). An equal majority (54%) are condent in the abilities
of the RCMP to prevent these types of attacks, but just 18% are very condent. Those concerned includes
a majority of Conservative (65%) and Bloc voters (63%) and just 48% among NDP supporters and 45%
among Liberals. Condence in the RCMP is highest among Liberal voters (62%) compared to 53% of
Conservative supporters and just 46% of NDP voters, nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Ottawa: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A4

If a Federal Election were held today, which party


would you support?

26%

47%

10%
4%
3%
10%

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

BQ

Green

Undecided

A5

If a Federal Election were held today, which party


would you support?

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Liberal

46%

48%

47%

47%

48%

46%

Conservative

25%

27%

26%

29%

28%

25%

NDP

12%

11%

10%

8%

10%

11%

BQ

3%

3%

4%

4%

3%

4%

Green

4%

2%

2%

2%

3%

3%

Undecided

9%

9%

11%

11%

9%

12%

Sample

622

1301

1576

1751

2472

2778

Nat.

BC

AB

SK

MB

ON

QC

ATL

Liberal

47%

46%

33%

33%

44%

53%

46%

49%

Conservative

26%

27%

51%

35%

32%

26%

13%

23%

NDP

10%

13%

5%

15%

11%

9%

13%

10%

BQ

4%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

16%

0%

Green

3%

6%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

Undecided

10%

9%

9%

16%

10%

9%

10%

16%

5250

861

792

521

499

1157

907

513

Sample

A6

Decided and Leaning

29%
51%

12%
4%
4%

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

BQ

Green

A7

Decided and Leaning

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Liberal

50%

52%

52%

51%

51%

51%

Conservative

27%

29%

29%

32%

31%

28%

NDP

14%

12%

12%

9%

11%

13%

BQ

4%

4%

4%

4%

3%

5%

Green

6%

3%

3%

3%

4%

4%

Sample

580

1222

1457

1619

2320

2558

Nat.

BC

AB

SK

MB

ON

QC

ATL

Liberal

51%

48%

36%

38%

48%

57%

50%

60%

Conservative

29%

28%

55%

41%

35%

29%

14%

26%

NDP

12%

15%

7%

18%

13%

10%

15%

12%

BQ

4%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

17%

0%

Green

4%

9%

2%

4%

3%

3%

3%

3%

4878

822

748

468

454

1076

852

458

Sample

A8

Favourability Ratings
[Conservative Voters Only]

Bernier

19%

23%

Chong 24%
Clement

11%

MacKay

52%

Raitt

13%

Obhrai

8%

Scheer

32%

O'Toole

25%

Trost

11%

23%

32%

35%

33%

23%

Leitch 28%

35%

21%

23%

21%

25%

24%

17%
5% 28%
7% 13%

72%

6% 15%

10

20

Approve

9%

54%

13%

12%

22%

17%

38%

54%

6% 71%
30

40

Disapprove

50

60

Not Sure

70

80

Not Familiar

90

100

A9

Changes from April

25

11%

20

-17% 16%

4%

8%

-10

-4% -5% 5%

-5

5%

-16% 10%

-11%

10

5%

15

-15

-10%

-20
-25
Bernier

Last Name

Chong

Favourable

Clement

Leitch

Unfavourable

MacKay

Not Sure

Raitt

Not Familiar

Bernier

1%

10%

5%

-16%

Chong

5%

8%

-2%

-11%

Clement

5%

4%

-5%

-4%

Leitch

16%

11%

-17%

-10%

MacKay

-1%

2%

0%

-1%

Raitt

-1%

0%

1%

0%

0
Undecided 12%

Someone Else 7%

Andrew Scheer 9%

Lisa Raitt 3%

Erin O'Toole 9%

1%

Deepak Obrahai

Peter McKay 19%

Kellie Leitch 15%

Tony Clement 12%

Michael Chong 7%

Maxime Bernier 6%

A10

Conservative Leadership
[Conservative Voters Only]

18

16

14

12

10

A11

Conservative Leadership
[Conservative Voters Only]

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Maxime Bernier

6%

6%

6%

5%

6%

6%

Michael Chong

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

Tony Clement

14%

12%

12%

9%

12%

12%

Kellie Leitch

15%

15%

17%

11%

14%

16%

Peter McKay

17%

17%

20%

22%

19%

19%

Deepak Obhrai

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

Erin O'Toole

10%

11%

8%

7%

9%

9%

Lisa Raitt

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

Andrew Scheer

9%

8%

8%

12%

9%

9%

Someone Else

7%

8%

6%

7%

8%

6%

Undecided

10%

12%

12%

14%

12%

12%

A12

Conservative Leadership
[Conservative Voters Only]

Nat.

BC

AB

Prairies

ON

QC

ATL

Maxime Bernier

6%

2%

8%

6%

6%

8%

4%

Michael Chong

7%

4%

7%

3%

9%

9%

4%

Tony Clement

12%

17%

15%

5%

12%

9%

8%

Kellie Leitch

15%

24%

15%

26%

12%

10%

6%

Peter McKay

19%

19%

13%

23%

18%

19%

38%

Deepak Obhrai

1%

2%

2%

1%

1%

0%

0%

Erin O'Toole

9%

9%

7%

10%

11%

3%

9%

Lisa Raitt

3%

1%

5%

2%

3%

1%

3%

Andrew Scheer

9%

3%

11%

11%

10%

7%

8%

Someone Else

7%

4%

4%

6%

8%

12%

8%

Undecided

12%

15%

14%

8%

8%

21%

13%

A13

Should Canada accept a new immigrant if he or


she does not accept abortion rights?

A14

Should Canada accept a new immigrant if he or


she does not accept abortion rights?

A15

Should Canada accept a new immigrant if he or


she does not accept same-sex marriage?

A16

Should Canada accept a new immigrant if he or


she does not accept same-sex marriage?

A17

How concerned are you about lone-wolf terrorist


attacks, attacks where one individual commits an
act of terrorism?

A18

How concerned are you about lone-wolf terrorist


attacks, attacks where one individual commits an
act of terrorism?

A19

How condent are you in the RCMP to prevent


lone wolf attacks?

A22

How condent are you in the RCMP to prevent


lone wolf attacks?

A21

In your opinion, do you agree or disagree with a


womans right to have an abortion?

A22

In your opinion, do you agree or disagree with a


womans right to have an abortion?

A23

In your opinion, do you agree or disagree with a


same-sex couples right to marriage?

A24

In your opinion, do you agree or disagree with a


same-sex couples right to marriage?

A25

BREAKOUTS

Concern About Lone Wolf Attack by Party Aliation

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

BQ

Green

Undecided

Very Concerned

24%

35%

25%

36%

26%

16%

Somewhat
Concerned

21%

30%

23%

27%

8%

19%

Not Too
Concerned

29%

22%

22%

26%

20%

26%

Not At All
Concerned

21%

10%

24%

9%

44%

11%

Not Sure

4%

3%

6%

1%

1%

27%

Condence in RCMP by Party Aliation

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

BQ

Green

Undecided

Very Confident

20%

17%

11%

18%

24%

3%

Somewhat
Confident

42%

38%

35%

34%

26%

28%

Not Too
Confident

21%

29%

17%

34%

16%

22%

Not At All
Confident

10%

13%

24%

14%

25%

19%

Not Sure

8%

3%

14%

1%

9%

28%

A26

BREAKOUTS

Should Canada accept a new immigrant if he or she does not accept abortion rights? by Party Aliation

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

BQ

Green

Undecided

Yes

42%

30%

39%

36%

44%

26%

No

18%

33%

27%

37%

28%

17%

Not Sure

40%

37%

34%

27%

28%

57%

Should Canada accept a new immigrant if he or she does not accept same-sex marriage? by Party Al.

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

BQ

Green

Undecided

Yes

36%

43%

42%

29%

52%

21%

No

37%

37%

33%

63%

26%

25%

Not Sure

27%

20%

25%

7%

22%

54%

Should Canada accept a new immigrant if he or she does not accept abortion rights? by Abortion Stance

Agree

Disagree

Not Sure

Yes

38%

42%

16%

No

23%

26%

24%

Not Sure

39%

32%

60%

Should Canada accept a new immigrant if he or she does not accept Same Sex Marriage? by SSM Stance

Agree

Disagree

Not Sure

Yes

39%

36%

30%

No

36%

43%

25%

Not Sure

25%

20%

45%

A27

BREAKOUTS

Abortion Stance by Party Aliation

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

BQ

Green

Undecided

Yes

72%

50%

82%

53%

77%

51%

No

19%

36%

14%

37%

19%

32%

Not Sure

9%

14%

5%

10%

5%

17%

Same Sex Marriage Stance by Party Aliation

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

BQ

Green

Undecided

Yes

75%

62%

81%

53%

95%

57%

No

11%

25%

10%

35%

4%

24%

Not Sure

14%

14%

9%

11%

1%

20%

A28

SCRIPT

If a Federal Election were held today, which party would you support?
Conservative Party led by Rona Ambrose
NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Bloc Qubcois led by Rheal Fortin
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
The Conservative Party will be holding a leadership race to choose a new leader. Of the following
candidates, whom would you vote for if you could to be the next Conservative Leader? [Conservative
Decided & Leaning Voters Only]
Maxime Bernier
Michael Chong
Tony Clement
Kellie Leitch
Peter McKay
Deepak Obhrai
Erin O'Toole
Lisa Raitt
Andrew Scheer
Someone Else
Undecided
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Maxime Bernier?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Michael Chong?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Tony Clement?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Kellie Leitch?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Peter McKay?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Deepak Obhrai?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Erin OToole?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Lisa Raitt?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrew Scheer?
[Conservative Decided & Leaning Voters Only]
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Sure
Not Familiar with [Candidate Name]
Should Canada accept a new immigrant if he or she does not accept abortion rights?
Should Canada accept a new immigrant if he or she does not accept same-sex marriage?
Yes
No
Not Sure

A29

SCRIPT

How concerned are you about lone-wolf terrorist attacks, attacks where one individual commits an act
of terrorism? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned not too concerned or not at all concerned?
Very Concerned
Somewhat Concerned
Not Too Concerned
Not At All Concerned
Not Sure
In your opinion, do you agree or disagree with a same-sex couples right to marriage?
Agree
Disagree
Not Sure
In your opinion, do you agree or disagree with a womans right to have an abortion?
Agree
Disagree
Not Sure

CALGARY GREENWAY

WHITBY

Most Accurate Pollster of the Calgary


Greenway by election.

Most Accurate Pollster of the


Whitby by election.

SASKATCHEWAN

MANITOBA

Most Active Pollster of Saskatchewans


general election, top results within MoE.

Most Active Pollster of Manitobas general


election, top results within MoE.

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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