Report on Middle East Market Dynamics and Strategies for Entry

1. GCC
GCC comprises of 6 countries UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar.
The GCCs global economic prominence has risen rapidly in the past decade, with its
share in world GDP doubling to 2.2%. The leading industry of GCC is oil & gas;
followed by construction sector.
1.1 GDP (in billion US$) of GCC Countries in 2014-15
GCC
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Qatar
Kuwait
Oman
Bahrain

GDP
753.8
399.5
210.0
171.9
77.8
33.8

Source: International Monetary Fund

However, the GDP per capita varies significantly across these countries. Qatar has
the highest GDP per capital, followed by Kuwait and Qatar. Bahrain and Saudi Arabia,
on the other hand have very low GDP/capita.
GCC
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Qatar
Kuwait
Oman
Bahrain

GDP/capita
24,499
42,493
93,990
43,005
20,923
26,686

1.2 GDP (in billion US$) of GCC Countries in 2014-15

Contribution of Saudi Arabia to GCC Economy is the largest, comprising a large
chunk of 46%. Together UAE and Saudi Arabia comprise 70% of the total GDP of
GCC.

GDP CONTRIBUTION TO GCC

2%

10%

24%

5%
13%

46%

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

UAE

Source: International Monetary Fund

1.3 GDP Growth Forecasts for the GCC countries

Qatar is expected to grow at a much faster rate as compared to Saudi Arabia, UAE
and Bahrain. Oman and Kuwait show slower growth rate.

5.9%
4.6%

4.3%

4.3%
3.8%
2.6%

Saudi Arabia

UAE

Qatar

1.4 Diversification of Revenue in GCC

Kuwait

Oman

Bahrain

Diversification of Oil Revenue in GCC

100%
80%

36%

46%

53%

51%

67%

60%

72%

40%
20%

64%

54%

47%

49%

33%

28%

0%
Saudi Arabia

UAE

Qatar
Oil

Kuwait
Non-Oil

1.5 Employment Outlook in GCC

1.6 Leading sectors in GCC A Macro-Economic Overview

Oman

Bahrain

Source: IMF 2012 Report

1.7 Leading sectors in GCC A Macro-Economic Overview

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
g.
h.
i.
j.
k.

Oil & Gas

Banking & Financial Services
Manufacturing
Construction & Infrastructure
IT/Electronics and Communications
Government Service
Education
Retail
Aviation
Hospitality/Tourism
Healthcare

Oil & Gas

The Gulf Region countries collectively possess around 54% and 40%, respectively, of
the worlds conventional oil and gas proved reserves, and large additional amounts of
unproved and undiscovered reserves. Within GCC, Saudi Arabia holds approximately
60% of oil reserves whereas Qatar holds around 60% gas reserves.
Oil receipts typically account for more than 80% of GCC government revenues, rising
to over 90% of Saudi Arabias budget before the crisis. Dubai, one of the emirates
making up the UAE, is an exception, with oil accounting for only 5% of revenues. That
is because it has successfully diversified: tourism and services account for most of its
government revenues.
The main driver of the industry is the oil price which in-turn is dependent on the
demand-supply gap. With the reserves at USA coming to an end, and huge untapped
reserves in the gulf region, there is a strong future for the sector going forward.

Oil Reserves in GCC

5% 1%4%
17%

16%

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

57%

UAE

Kuwait

Oman

Bahrain

Gas Reserve within GCC

4% 2%
15%

59%

20%

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

UAE

Kuwait

Oman

Source: OPEC
In March 2016, GCC countries had 294 active rigs, an increase from the 288 rigs
counted in 2015. This is noteworthy, as the worldwide rig count was down steeply
from 2557 in March 2015 to 1551 this year, a fall of 1,006 rigs. (Source: Baker Hughes)
The lump in the sector has led to loss of over 200,000 jobs. Also, due to Saudisation of
the workforce, the number of expatriate workers in Saudi Arabia are expected to lose
jobs.
It is forecasted that the oil prices will remain the same over the near future. The oil
dependent economies are therefore trying to diversify their revenues and reduce their
dependence on hydrocarbon revenues.

Industry & Manufacturing

Manufacturing makes up a significant portion of the revenue for the GCC countries
and the sector has shown rapid growth in the past years. Within the manufacturing
sector, chemical & petrochemicals, metal products & transport, building materials,
and food products & beverages comprise approximately 80% of the industry share.
The major indicators of the industry are the number of factories, employed labor force
and the amount of invested capital.

Over the period from 2010 to 2014, the number of manufacturing factories increased
from 13,035 to 16,292 representing a 5-year CAGR of 5.7%. This implies that over
3,257 factories were set up and became operational during this short period of time.
In addition to the increase in the number of factories, there has been a huge increment
in the amount of invested capital in the sector, which jumped from 222 billion USD in
2010 to about 380 billion USD in 2014 representing a 5-year CAGR of 14.4%.
Approximately 158 billion USD were invested in industrial ventures over the last five
years and in expansion projects of existing industries.
Labor force in the manufacturing industry has also increased from 1,129,000 in 2010
to 1,529,000 workers in 2014 (CAGR of 8%). Setting up of new factories have provided
over 400,000 new job opportunities over the 5-year period from 2010 to 2014.

Number of factories
Structural metal products,
transport and other
industries

16%
36%
22%

Chemical and petrochemical

products
Building materials

26%

Food products, beverages

and tobacco

Labor force Split

Structural metal products,
transport and other
industries

20%
34%

Chemical and petrochemical

products
Building materials

21%
25%

Food products, beverages

and tobacco

Source: Gulf Organization for Industrial Consulting

Within the 4 major sectors, building materials showed the highest growth rate of 8%
over the past 5 years while the food products sectors showed a 5-year growth rate in
the labor force of 11%.
Within GCC, Saudi Arabia ranked first in terms of number of factories (41.8%), the UAE
second (34.5%), Oman third (9.6%), Bahrain fourth (4.8%), Qatar fifth (4.7%) and
Kuwait sixth (4.6%).
Saudi Arabia and Qatar lead in terms of investments. Saudi Arabia was ranked first in
terms of investments (55.3%), followed by Qatar (21.7%), UAE (9.1%), Oman (6.2%),
Kuwait (5.1%) and Bahrain (2.7%). In terms of labor force, Saudi Arabia was ranked
first (56%), followed by UAE (25%), Kuwait (5.3%), Oman and Qatar (4.9%) and Bahrain
(3.9%).
-

Building Materials

The building materials industry includes manufacture of glass and glass products;
refractory products; clay building materials; other porcelain and ceramic products;
cement, lime and plaster; concrete, cement and plaster, cutting, shaping and finishing
of stone; and other non-metallic mineral products.
In absolute terms, investments in cement and lime topped the chart, followed by
ready-mix, concrete blocks, ceramic products, glass and glass products, marble and
granite, plaster products, sand and gravel and other non-metallic mineral products.

In absolute terms, ready-mix industry offered the maximum jobs, followed by

concrete blocks, marble and granite, cement and lime, ceramic products, glass and
glass products, sand and gravel, plaster products and other non-metallic mineral
products.
Source: Zawya

Construction & Infrastructure

The infrastructure segment, comprising of road, railways, ports, and airports, is a key
focus area of the GCC countries. GCC nations have made significant budgetary
allocations toward the development of transportation such as airways, railways,
roadways, and ports. Consequently, the infrastructure industry has shown a strong
upward trend. In addition to residential and office segments, the region is also
witnessing significant projects in the segments of leisure, retail, education, hospitality,
and healthcare.
The GCC construction industry grew at compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.94%
from 2008 to 2012. Saudi Arabia dominates in terms of infrastructure projects in 2014,
followed by Qatar. Saudi Arabia in order to boost religious tourism has translated
higher budget allocations toward the hospitality, retail, and infrastructure sectors in
2014. This is expected to result in an increase in construction activities across these
sectors in the near future.
Under its strategic vision 2021, UAE plans to allocate huge budgets toward the
development of its infrastructure sector. Similarly, Qatars strategic vision 2030 plans
to make heavy investments in its infrastructure, healthcare, and hospitality sectors.
Developing its infrastructure and reducing housing shortage were the key concerns of
the Bahraini government in 2015. Such infrastructure projects in Bahrain will be
supported by the government in this region through enormous investment. Oman
government also supports the development of its tourism sector for economic
diversification through investment in various sectors. Such factors are expected to
propel construction activities across the GCC, particularly between 2015 and 2021.
This provides huge employment opportunities for low-skilled workers.

Hospitality/Tourism
Private investment in the tourism sector, new attractions and expanding airport
capacity are among the factors driving firm growth in the GCC regions hotel industry.
The market will grow by 7.6% from an estimated $25.4bn in 2015 to $36.7bn in 2020,
despite a slowdown in 2016. Expo 2020 in Dubai and the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar
to drive demand further.
From 2015 to 2020 markets in Qatar and the UAE are expected to grow fastest, at
more than 10% owing mainly to tourism-related developments ahead of landmark
events to be held in these countries. Bahrain is likely to see average growth whereas
the rest of the GCC nations are expected growth to be between 5% and 6%.
Saudi Arabia has growing religious tourism, driving the economy in the Hijaz region. In
Saudi Arabia, tourism is forecast to create 1.8 million jobs by 2020 and has a current
Saudization rate of 27%. Tourism is also important in Bahrain, where it caters mainly
to Saudis. In Oman, it is a flourishing sector with a variety of unusual tourist
attractions, from a monsoon-swept coast to high mountains. Qatar and Abu Dhabi are
marketing themselves to high-end niches such as cultural, eco and health tourism.
As a significant growth sector across the GCC, tourism will increasingly be a focus for
workforce nationalization initiatives. In the UAE and Oman, it is already a popular
choice.

Retail
The retail industry in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) continues to maintain a
positive momentum, driven by the social and economic developments. Key factors
influencing the market include robust economic growth, rising purchasing power,
growing population comprising a large proportion of expatriates, changing
consumption patterns and increasing penetration of international retail players.
Additionally, governments across the region are focusing on the growth of non-oil
sectors such as tourism and retail to bring about the much-needed economic
diversification.
GCC retail sales are expected to grow at a 7.3% CAGR between 2013 and 2018 to reach
US$ 284.5 billion. Within GCC, outlook for Qatar is the most optimistic, with an

expected CAGR of 9.8% during the period. Other GCC nations are expected to register
an annual average retail sales growth of 6%-7%.
Food retail sales are anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 7.7% between 2013 and 2018,
while non-food retail sales are likely to grow at an annualized 7.1%. Sales at
supermarkets and hypermarkets in the GCC region are expected to reach US$ 59.3
billion in 2018, exhibiting a CAGR of 9.2% between 2013 and 2018. The sales growth
in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait is likely to be strong.
Airport-based duty free sales in the Middle East are estimated to increase from US$
3.9 billion in 2013 to US$ 6.6 billion in 2018. This growth is expected to be driven by
robust passenger traffic across all the leading airports in the region.
The personal luxury goods segment in the Middle East is expected to grow at a 4.6%
CAGR between 2013 and 2018 to reach US$ 9.4 billion in sales.
Source: Alpen Capital
Aviation
Traffic growth in the Middle East continues to grow at a healthy rate and is expected
to grow 6.2% annually during the next 20 years. Gulf carriers led by Emirates Airline,
Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways are leading the charge, with new destinations
planned across the world. They are also expected to add 2,352 seats to the US their
largest growth market this year; 1,954 to the UK, its second largest market; and 1,903
seats to India, their third largest market.
Their geographic position, coupled with diverse business strategies and investment in
infrastructure is allowing carriers in the Middle East to aggregate traffic at their hubs
and offer one-stop service between many city pairs that would not otherwise enjoy
such direct itineraries.
Some countries such as Saudi Arabia are also privatizing airports to generate revenues
and secure foreign investment in the sector. Virtually all the major countries including
Egypt, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait are expanding their aviation infrastructure.

Banking & Financial Services

Banking sector in the GCC mostly refers to 2 major sectors: corporate banking and
retail banking.

Retail banking is growing faster than corporate banking in 4 of the 6 GCC countries,
with the exception of Qatar and UAE. Qatar and UAE are forecasted to show rapid
growth in the banking space.
Qatars largest five banks accounted for 76.9% of the sectors assets, making it one of
the most concentrated in the region. (Source: Qatar National Bank)
The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) licenses and regulates 18 banks as of January 2015.
Seven of these institutions are national, conventional lenders, which between them
operated a total of 189 branches as of December 2014. In addition, there are 7 foreign
banks which together have 16 branches. (Source: Central Bank)

Source: Central Bank

The asset growth has decreased post the crisis and Bahrain might have a very less
contribution to the banking sector going forward.
A bit on banking overview of each of the 6 GCC countries. (..refer ATK Report)

Education
Favorable demographics and government initiatives to open up the sector are key
growth drivers, with many foreign universities setting up offshore branches in GCC.
However, lack of trained teachers is a major challenge.
The GCC education sector is expected to receive total investments of US$150 billion
over the next 23 years

With increased demand for quality education, share of private schools in the GCC
region is set to rise from 14.7 per cent in 2013 to 16.1 per cent in 2017
Government plans to invest in vocational training and tertiary skill development.

Healthcare:
Private clinics and hospitals are now growing rapidly. Health care free zones are
emerging in Dubai and Sharjah This aims to spur private sector investment with a view
to health tourism as well as the domestic market.
Private sector players have also been brought in to manage public hospitals,
particularly in Abu Dhabi, which has management contracts with the international
arms of two leading US hospitals, Johns Hopkins and Cleveland Clinic.

2 UAE
The major segments of UAE are:

a) Dubai (get authentic source)

The services sector (including real estate and business services, hospitality,
transport, communication, personal and social services) is the largest in Dubais
economy, recording a share of 37.2% of total GDP in H1 2014, and employing
roughly 33% of Dubais workforce.

Within Dubais services sector, transport ranks first accounting for 14.8% of Dubais
GDP in H1 2014, followed by real estate and business services (14%), hospitality
(5.5%) and personal and social services (2.9%) for the same period.