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Forecast Assumptions

First Year
Product Mix

Glaxo: pills
Glaxo: syrup
Comarketer: pills
Comarketer: syrup

85%
15%
40%
60%

Tax rate, Italy


Tax rate, United Kingdom
Expected inflation, Italy
Expected inflation , United Kingdom
Yearly percentage increase in cost per sales rep.
Yearly decline in market share after year 6
Extra growth in direct sales
Savings in promotional effort direct sales vs. co-marketing
Licensee fee (% of Zinnat revenues to licensee)
WACC
Glaxo Holdings, interest rate and internal charge for capital

47.0%
29.0%
4.0%
5.0%
4.0%
5.0%
0.0%
25.0%
4.0%
15.0%
12.5%
1990

Market forecast (millions of units)


Market share for Zinnat, direct strategy
Years from Sept. 1990
Cost of raw materials
Manufacturer Price to Retailer, pills
Manufacturer Price to Retailer, syrup
Gross margin/direct sales, Glaxo Italia
Sales force #1 --(number of reps)
% time on Zinnat (direct)
% time on Zinnat (licensing)
Sales force #2 -- salespeople
% time on Zinnat (direct)
% time on Zinnat (licensing)
Cost per sales rep (ITL millions)

0.0%
0.25
1,566.0
20,984.0
18,226.8

1991
52.3
3.1%
1.25
1,644.7
22,038.4
19,142.7
53%
320
20%
26%
320
13%
18%
105.0

1990
Quantities:
Volumes (000)
Samples (000)

Revenues
Gross margin
Cost of samples
Med promotion
Mkt promotion
Sales rep prom
Total sales force cost Line 1
Total sales force cost Line 2
Total marketing cost
Marketing margin

1991

912
710

0.0

19.70
10.4

0.4
-0.4

3.4
0.2
2.8
0.7
6.6
4.4
18.0
-7.6

Group profit on transfer


Interest
Product margin
Investment in working capital
Capital generated

0.0
-0.4
0.0
-0.4

7.8
-0.1
0.2
3.0
-2.8

Cumulative capital generated

-0.4

-3.2

NPV

0.2
0.2

214.266894

1990
Price to

1990
Content of

1990

Manufacturer Transfer Price

Years 2+

Retail Cust.

Key Raw

Price to

Of Ingredients

Product Mix

lira

Materials (gr)

Retailer

(lira/gr)

80%
20%
40%
60%

1992

34,400.0
29,880.0

3.0
2.5

20,984.0
18,226.8

1,566.0
1,566.0

1993

1994

1995

1996

46.6
7.0%

46.6
7.1%

44.6
7.1%

46.3
7.1%

2.25
1,710.5
22,919.9
19,908.4
53%

3.25
1,778.9
23,836.7
20,704.7
53%

4.25
1,850.0
24,790.2
21,532.9
53%

5.25
1,924.1
25,781.8
22,394.2
53%

350
25%
33%

400
18%
24%

400
16%
21%

400
17%
23%

109.2

113.6

118.1

122.8

47.2
7.1%

1997

1998

46.0

46.5

6.7%

6.4%

6.25
7.25
8.25
2,001.0 2,081.1 2,164.3
26,813.1 27,885.6 29,001.0
23,290.0 24,221.6 25,190.4
53%
53%
53%
440
17%
23%

127.7

440
17%

440
17%

22%

23%

132.9

138.2

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

2560
700

2711
600

2764
400

2889
400

3003
350

2722

2604

383.3

377.8

57.13
30.3

62.93
33.4

66.73
35.4

72.54
38.4

78.41
41.6

73.92
39.2

73.54
39.0

3.5
0.6
4.1
0.3
9.5

3.1
0.6
3.8
0.4
8.2

2.2
0.7
2.0
1.1
7.4

2.3
0.7
2.2
1.2
8.5

2.0
0.8
2.4
1.3
9.7

2.3
0.7

2.4
0.7

2.2

2.3

1.2

1.2

9.8

10.4

17.9
12.3

16.1
17.3

13.3
22.0

14.9
23.6

16.2
25.3

16.3
22.9

17.0
22.0

16.3
-0.4
28.3
5.6
22.6

17.2
2.4
36.9
0.9
36.1

17.1
6.9
46.1
0.6
45.5

18.5
12.6
54.7
0.9
53.9

19.6
19.4
64.3
0.9
63.5

18.9
27.3
69.1
-0.7
69.8

18.9
36.0
76.9
2.9
74.0

19.5

55.5

101.0

154.9

218.4

288.2

362.1

1999

2000

46.6

46.4

6.1%

5.8%

9.25
10.25
2,250.9 2,340.9
30,161.1 31,367.5
26,198.0 27,246.0
53%
53%
440
17%

440
17%

23%

23%

143.7

149.4

1999

2000

2466

2306

370.4

377.2

72.44
38.4

70.43
37.3

2.4
0.7

2.6

2.3

2.3

1.2

1.2

10.8

11.1

17.5
20.9

17.2
20.1

18.7
45.3
84.9
5.4
79.4

18.4
55.2
93.7
0.6
93.1

441.5

534.7

Forecast Assumptions

First Year
Product Mix

Glaxo: pills
Glaxo: syrup
Comarketer: pills
Comarketer: syrup

85%
15%
40%
60%

Tax rate, Italy


Tax rate, United Kingdom
Expected inflation, Italy
Expected inflation , United Kingdom
Yearly percentage increase in cost per sales rep.
Yearly decline in market share after year 6
Extra growth in direct sales
Savings in promotional effort direct sales vs. co-marketing
Licensee fee (% of Zinnat revenues to licensee)
WACC
Glaxo Holdings, interest rate and internal charge for capital

47.0%
29.0%
4.0%
5.0%
4.0%
5.0%
0.0%
25.0%
4.0%
15.0%
12.5%
1990

Market forecast (millions of units)


Market share for Zinnat, co-marketing strategy
Years from Sept. 1990
Cost of raw materials
Manufacturer Price to Retailer, pills
Manufacturer Price to Retailer, syrup
Gross margin/direct sales, Glaxo Italia
Sales force #1 --(number of reps)
% time on Zinnat (direct)
% time on Zinnat (licensing)
Sales force #2 -- salespeople
% time on Zinnat (direct)
% time on Zinnat (licensing)
Cost per sales rep (ITL millions)

0.0%
0.25
1,566.0
20,984.0
18,226.8

1991
52.3
5.2%
1.25
1,644.7
22,038.4
19,142.7
53%
320
20%
26%
320
13%
18%
105.0

Quantities
Volumes (000s)
Samples (000s)
Licensees (000s)
Total

1990

1991

200
200

912
710
1,099
2,721

Direct sales
Sales to licensees
Total revenue
Gross margin
Gross margin/tot rev
Gross margin, direct sales

0.0
3.9
3.9

Cost of samples
Med promotion
Mkt promotion
Sales rep prom
Total sales-force cost Line 1
Total sales-force cost Line 2
Total marketing cost
Marketing margin

0.0
0.2
0.2

0%
0.0

19.70
22.3
42.0
16.4
39%
22.3

0.4
-0.4

3.2
0.2
2.8
0.7
8.7
5.9
21.4
-5.0

0.8
0.2

12.1
0.9

Interest
Product margin
Investment in working capital
Capital Generated

0.00
0.4
0.1
0.3

0.04
5.6
4.6
0.9

Cumulative capital generated

0.3

1.2

Group profit on product transfer


Fee from licensee

NPV

285.1297

1990
Price to

1990
Content of

1990

Manufacturer Transfer Price

Years 2+

Retail Cust.

Key Raw

Price to

Of Ingredients

Product Mix

lira

Materials (gr)

Retailer

(lira/gr)

80%
20%
40%
60%

34,400.0
29,880.0

3.0
2.5

20,984.0
18,226.8

1,566.0
1,566.0

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

46.6
10.4%

46.6
10.4%

44.6
10.1%

46.3
9.6%

2.25
1,710.5
22,919.9
19,908.4
53%

3.25
1,778.9
23,836.7
20,704.7
53%

4.25
1,850.0
24,790.2
21,532.9
53%

5.25
1,924.1
25,781.8
22,394.2
53%

350
25%
33%

400
18%
24%

400
16%
21%

400
17%
23%

109.2

113.6

118.1

122.8

47.2
9.2%

1997

1998

46.0

46.5

8.7%

8.3%

6.25
7.25
8.25
2,001.0 2,081.1 2,164.3
26,813.1 27,885.6 29,001.0
23,290.0 24,221.6 25,190.4
53%
53.0%
53.0%
440
17%
23%

127.7

413.3

417.8

17%

17%

22.33%

22.78%

132.9

138.2

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

2,560
700
1,583
4,843

2,711
600
1,540
4,851

2,764
400
1,337
4,501

2,889
400
1,158
4,447

2,862
350
1,133
4,345

2838.3

2863.1

383.3

377.8

1209.3

1166.8

4,431

4,408

57.13
33.4
90.6
40.7
45%
48.0

62.92
33.8
96.7
44.5
46%
51.3

66.72
30.5
97.3
44.7
46%
51.5

72.53
27.5
100.0
47.0
47%
53.0

74.72
28.0
102.7
49.3
48%
54.4

77.07
31.1
108.1
50.8

80.85
31.2
112.0
53.0

3.2
0.6
4.0
0.3
12.6

2.9
0.6
3.8
0.3
10.9

2.0
0.7
2.0
0.9
9.9

2.1
0.7
2.2
0.9
11.3

1.9
0.7
2.2
0.9
12.9

20.8
20.0

18.5
26.0

15.5
29.2

17.2
29.8

22.4
1.3

23.3
1.4

22.5
1.2

0.15
39.4
7.2
32.2

4.18
50.1
1.0
49.1

33.4

82.6

47.00%

47.33%

57.3

59.4

2.2
0.8

2.2
0.8

2.1

2.2

0.9

0.9

12.3

13.1

18.7
30.6

18.2
32.6

19.3
33.8

23.1
1.1

23.5
1.1

24.9
1.2

25.8
1.2

10.32
58.8
0.4
58.3

17.613
67.0
1.0
66.1

25.871
76.4
0.4
76.0

35.4
89.1
0.7
88.4

46.4
102.0
5.3
96.7

140.9

207.0

282.9

371.4

468.1

1999

2000

46.6

46.4

7.9%

7.5%

9.25
10.25
2,250.9 2,340.9
30,161.1 31,367.5
26,198.0 27,246.0
53.0%

53.0%

423.7

418.3

17%

17%

22.70%

22.60%

143.7

149.4

1999

2000

2854.5

2852.0

370.4

377.2

1169.7

1181.9

4,395

4,411

83.83
32.5
116.3
55.2

87.11
34.2
121.3
57.3

47.44%

47.26%

61.7

64.3

2.3
0.8

2.4

2.2

2.2

0.9

0.9

13.8

14.1

20.0
35.2

19.6
37.7

26.7
1.3

27.9
1.4

58.5
116.4
7.7
108.6

72.1
133.5
1.7
131.8

576.7

708.5