Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Contents
Page
Correction
Candle Patterns
Regular Articles
SMSF
11
13
16
Exploration Results
16
Page | 1
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
Due to my upcoming appointment on the 10 th of September with the surgeon to have my wrist
fused, there will be some minor rescheduling for Tech Torque post wrist repair. As one wing will be
temporarily out of action my plan is to publish Tech Torque on a fortnightly schedule. This should only
be a temporary measure until the cast is removed and Wendy
It can be a real challenge picking reversal points as they occur regardless of how many years
we may have been trading. Yes we do become more intuitive over the years but with an ever changing
market its remains a constant learning curve.
Its human nature for us to try and pick the bottom of a trend. Its that engrained trait of
wanting to buy at a bargain basement price. In order to identify reversal points most of us will reach for
one of the two hundred or so crappy indicators in our menu and when they fail we then look to moving
averages as our saving grace. When this fails with a degree of consistency we then switch back to
guessing (discretionary entry). All along there has been a more than acceptable alternative to the
guess work and indicator manipulation.
Candle patterns reflect the moment. They define the underlying sentiment within price action
albeit briefly. Because of their short term nature we need to remain mindful that with every bar that
passes following the candle pattern the less significance the pattern carries.
From a personal
Page | 2
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
Page | 3
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
Westpac Banking (WBC ASX) figure 1 experiences bearish engulfing patterns regularly
however not all patterns precede a reversal in price. While it is fine knowing when a candle pattern
appears we need to manage their appearance as not all candle patterns will come to fruition.
With any candle pattern if its genuine,
then its supported by the majority of the
market therefore price reversal is usually
instant. I have the rule that I will only trade on
candle patterns plus one. In order to explain
this rambling, an engulfing pattern consists of
two candles, one small candle followed by the
much larger engulfing candle. It is a two
bar/candle pattern. The maximum number of
periods that I will associate with the validity of
the pattern is three bars. Beyond this if price
action has not reversed then the pattern may
not have the broad market support needed to
Entry Range
The second step in the process involves confirming that price action is attempting to change.
Forget these pristine examples that you will see in books where the candle appears at the apex of the
trend, price immediately runs hard and you made a nice profit as price punches through a nicely
positioned trend line one bar from the high or low. Its all very convenient and text book but seldom
reflective of real time trading.
Above we have a bearish engulfing pattern. Text book application will tell us to enter should
price trade below the low of the engulfing candle. This is garbage that will cost you a small fortune in
false signals.
In order to minimise my exposure to false signals, I project the total trading range of the
engulfing candle downward commencing from the low of the candle. Should the closing price occur
within the bottom half of the range within three bars of pattern formation then I will consider that the
signal has validity. If you are slightly more conservative then you can wait until price action drops below
the bottom line which is the full length of our engulfing candle. What is important here is that even if
you choose to be a little more conservative and wait for a greater in reversal in price the penetration of
our bottom line must still occur within three bars of pattern formation?
Page | 4
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
By changing the requirement that our engulfing candle must do exactly that, engulf the first
candle in its entirety along with a minimum increase in the trading range of say 50% over the first
candle then we will also remove many of the lesser signals. The downside is that we will also remove
a number of genuine signals as well so it becomes a compromise between minimising market noise
and defining genuine reversal activity
Page | 5
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
Piercing Pattern
A Piercing Pattern occurs when a bullish
candle (day 2) closes above the middle of the
previous candle (day 1). The previous candle must
be bearish with a lower closing price.
Our piercing candle (day 2) gaps down at
the market open only to rally throughout the day
recovering much of the previous days losses
The rejection
of the downward
gap
Page | 6
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
While piercing patterns can be a solid indication of potential change, like most candle
patterns they too are prone to the occasional failure due to being extremely short term in duration ans
less decisive development. We continue to apply the same principles with our piercing pattern as we
have done with our engulfing patterns.
We project the length of the piercing candle (day 2) upward from the high then look for price
to trade within the top half our projected range. Again we must apply a time factor to entry. As a
piercing pattern requires two candles to complete then price must reach our minimum trading range
within three bars otherwise we will consider that the reversal is potentially losing momentum or false.
From a personal trading perspective I have my own version of an engulfing pattern for
reversal identification. I tend to use the two conventional patterns for mid trend entry. When more
obvious patterns occur such as Island reversals, Dragonfly and Gravestone dojis then I do take notice
of their appearance however I do not let myself become entangled in a mass of candle pattern
analysis. I am looking for the signs of reversal therefore I am seeking patterns that enjoy a degree of
consistency and I find that these two meet this requirement.
Moving averages and indicators crossing from oversold is the preferred option of many
however these tools will seldom identify market change as early as a genuine candle pattern nor do
they reflect market sentiment at the time. Candle patterns are often overlooked due to their simplicity
after all how can a two bar pattern be anywhere near as effective as a 21 period RSI. Quite simple
really, most indicators reflect average change not current sentiment. The old line that good things
come in small packages is true and where some candle patterns are concerned especially engulfing
patterns. I am not a fanatically candle pattern trader and I cannot quote all of the patterns in existence
nor can I identify them all as they appear on my screen. I look for reversals or signs of continuation.
Beyond this I do not overcomplicate my trade process beyond this.
If candles are of interest then you will need to spend some time sorting through the menu in
order to locate which candle patterns favour certain stocks. The effort will be worth it.
Page | 7
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
Buy
(Ref(Close,-1) < Ref(Open,-1)) AND
(Open < Ref(Low,-1)) AND (Close > Ref(High,-1)) AND
(Open-Close) > (Range*(Ref(High,-1) -Ref(Low,-1)))
Sell
(Ref(Close,-1) > Ref(Open,-1)) AND
(Open > Ref(High,-1)) AND (Close < Ref(low,-1)) AND
(Open-Close) > (Range*(Ref(High,-1) -Ref(Low,-1)))
While most indicators do not make very reliable forecasting instruments, they can make for a
solid exit tool. Most traders focus on indicators as a means of entry confirmation or signal however this
is when they are at their weakest. We are asking the indicator based on previous values to tell us what
is going to happen into the future with a degree of reliability. In most cases this seldom comes to
fruition. What is overlooked is that once we are in a trade, the indicators inclusion of ongoing data tells
us much about current trend behaviour. We are no longer looking to the indicator from a predictive
Page | 8
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
perspective on what may happen but rather a from a relationship perspective involving the here and
now. Now this, indicators can do and some do it quite well.
I have overlayed the overbought region of the Relative Strength index on price. The benefit
with this dynamic approach is that we can monitor change more accurately therefore we can make an
informed decision at the time should be consider that price action is becoming unsustainable.
Once price action tags the overbought region of the RSI we know from experience that the
trade is potentially nearing its end. Because of this we are in two minds as to whether we should close
the position and take the profit or remain in the trade and hope that any pull back is minimal and are
our trailing stop will not be pinged by price action.
First and foremost this depends on the nature of
the strategy. If we are rally trading then profit
taking is common practice however if we are
position trading then we need a good reason to
be exiting prior to our stops being tagged. When
position trading, unsustainable price action is one
of those reasons
Once price action tags the overbought
line we are put on notice that the current upward
is potentially nearing maturity but knowing how to
manage the situation is another matter as the RSI
can remain overbought for an extended period.
Once price action moves into the overbought
region we do not immediately sell.
We shift our trailing stop to the low of the
previous bar then follow the upward bar adjusting
our trailing stop which each higher low that
appears. Our trailing stop value is the contingent
An inside bar is our
signal to lock profits
We will experience one of two signals, we will either be stopped out as price action reverses
and tags our trailing stop thereby closing the position or price action will drift sideways where it will
eventually move back inside of our overbought line. Our first bar inside of the overbought line is our
sell signal.
Page | 9
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
Its at this point we may consider as to whether we should stay with the position to see
whether we can gain from a renewed push upward after all this current pause is shaping to be that, a
pause in price. We cannot lose site of the fact that price action has been overbought for some time
therefore a potential pull back is likely. At this point we can collect the profits and ready ourselves for reentry at a later date.
Tech Torque
Back Issues
All back issues of Tech
Torque for 2013 are available
for downloading through the
forum. Select Tech Torque
from the main topics menu
then Tech Torque Back
Issues. Right click to
download the required issues
to your desk top.
Access to the forum is
restricted to financial
subscribers only.
Timeframe:- Daily/Weekly
Working Orders
With global equities markets looking quite weak at the
moment we have no new working orders. We have run three
searches on 16554 securities across 16 exchanges and only found
20 stocks producing new or trend highs. While the media is not
reporting or the current weakness the lack of trend high activity
Page | 10
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
Open Positions
Global exchanges have dipped again this week on the back of continued weakness. Our position in
Peoples United Financial closed out this week at $14.27. Our position closed with a moderate profit of
$1,064.00.
Our trades in CSR and Manulife Financial are looking the most secure of the remaining open
positions while Hudson City Bancorp and Huntington Bancshares have both become decidedly
weaker following bearish market behaviour over the last week. We need to decide whether we will lift
our trailing stops to protect our account from unnecessary capital erosion or do we leave the stops at
current levels and ride the current dip in the hope that its just a temporary decline in value.
Page | 11
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
One of the easiest methods I find for determining potential trend direction and momentum is
the multiple moving average. Both MMAs are developing in a similar manner with each MMA having
rolled over on a daily time frame. This is definitely a sign of early weakness which comes as no surprise
considering the general state of the equities market. On a weekly time frame both MMAs are also
showing the early signs of potentially rolling over therefore we will lift our stops to minimise our
exposure to any unnecessary downside.
With any future trades taken we will also look at switching stops from the conventional
position following Bear Range trailing stop to the Dynamic Bear Range trailing stop. Considering the
current weakness is the equities market as a whole we will temporarily avoid absorbing any
retracement activity by looking to lock in profits on the first signs of any reversal behaviour. Once we
begin to see the signs of strength returning to the equities markets we will review our choice of trailing
stop.
New Orders
There are no new orders this week
Australian
Readers:-
02 8298 9600
construed
as
recommendations to buy.
Any reference made using the
terms Buy or Sell are purely
for educational and discussions
purposes
only
in
order
to
the
situation,
investment
readers
risk
financial
tolerance,
experience,
Page | 12
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
The intent of these articles is to demonstrate how one particular individual approaches and manages the investment element of
their personal SMSF. This approach may not be suitable for others therefore it is suggested that an in-depth assessment is
performed prior to acting. We also suggest that professional advice be sort in relation to all investment activities before
committing especially where self-managed super funds are involved. Habitus Asset Management specialise in all aspects of
SMSF management. (ASFL No. 426927).
I received a query here recently regarding data and BullCharts. BullCharts runs on proprietary
data by default however BullCharts also has the capacity to read MetaStock data flawlessly. I have
been using BullCharts on MetaStock data for the best part of 10 years and I am yet to experience any
major issues.
If the market is available in MetaStock data then BullCharts can read it, and this includes
everything from stock exchanges, commodities and Forex.
Step1:- You will need to acquire an activation key from Brendon at BullCharts in order to unlock
BullCharts. When you initially purchase BullCharts it is locked to BullCharts data. I will cover the
activation process here as Brendon provides a detailed explanation of how this is done with the
activation key.
Step 2:- Next thing to do is to source quality MetaStock data. For this I use Reuters however Premium
Data Services also provide quality data. The only down side with Premium Data Services is that
international data is limited to the US. If you are looking for Asian or European exchanges then Reuters
is in my opinion the best source of quality international data.
The important thing with BullCharts when using MetaStock Data is to keep all of your data in
one main directory. BullCharts reads all directorys upon opening however it can only read one main
directory when open.
Step 3:- For the first download of MetaStock simply follow all of the instructions as provided by the data
provider. This establishes your MetaStock database.
Step 4:- Now create a folder on your C Drive and call it My Custom DataBase or something similar
so that you can distinguish between the original data folder and your custom data folder
Page | 13
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
Step 5:- Now you simply open the original data folder and copy only those exchanges you will intend to
trade. If you receive Forex data from Premium data Services and Exchange data from Reuters then also
copy the Folder across to your custom data folder
Note: - when copying the data across to your new folder you simply copy the folder. Do not open the
folder and attempt to copy the individual files within the exchange folder. MetaStock requires the folder
in order to know where to place the data when
downloading
Your new folder should look similar to mine on
the left
Step 6:- We now need to redirect our data
download from the original folder to our newly
created custom folder. From here it will depend
slightly on where you decide to source your
MetaStock data from. Most data programs will
allow your alter the directory path. Changing the
Premium Data Services directory path is an
extremely straight forward process.
Step 8:- We now add each sub folder to the Folder pane on the right.
We are now ready to download data to our custom folder. We need to be mindful that with the
change in our directory path, the original folders
will no longer update.
Page | 14
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
in
regard
to
stability
and
functionality. You can open MetaStock using Open MetaStock from the file menu however on the rare
occasion when I have experienced loading issues it has been when using this pathway to MetaStock. I
Page | 15
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
am unable to say whether the flaw was with BullCharts or MetaStock. BullCharts opens the MetaStock
pane and if it wasnt for the bull in top left corner you would not know that you were using BullCharts to
open MetaStock.
Regardless of what you are told, if the data you require is available in MetaStock EOD (end of
day format) then BullCharts can read it flawlessly.
Note:- BullCharts cannot read live MetaStock data streaming available through QuoteCentre.
Important Tips:Check current parameters using the Strategy Tester regularly and re-optimise if the current results are
in decline with previous
Always test the strategy on the platform and account to which it is applied
Always test during peak trading times and never test over weekends due to widened spreads.
Application:- Automated
Timeframe:- 4 Hour
High/Low
Parameters:-
Broker:- Alpari UK
As Optimised
Strategy:- Trend
I have been busy finalising updated versions of our three automated strategies which I will be
sending out this week. Due to the time this taken with each update I have not had a chance to
complete the optimisation process for the trend high-low strategy. I have an extremely busy schedule
this week however I am hopeful that I will have this done before my wing is clipped.
MARKET REVIEW
Prefix - Exchange Reference (Exchanges Available through the Saxo Platform)
.AS Amsterdam
.AX - Australia
.OL - Oslo
.BR Brussels
.PR - Prague
.V - Canadian Venture
SI - Singapore
Page | 16
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
.PA - France
.ST - Sweden
.S - Switzerland
.LS - Lisbon
TO - Toronto
.L - London
.VI - Vienna
Parameters - 52 week high using three confirmation periods for pattern top and bottom
Symbol
Name
Close
Close Prev
% $ Ch
Volume
Volume Prev
% Vol Ch
ATIC.SI
0.14
0.13
11.02%
546,790
134,780
305.69%
GMCR
85.61
76.38
12.08%
291,533
158,268
84.20%
SGP.AX
Stockland. Stapl
3.67
3.55
3.38%
433,131
675,652
-35.89%
Parameters - 52 week high using three confirmation periods for pattern top
Symbol
Name
Close
Close Prev
% $ Ch
Volume
Volume Prev
% Vol Ch
0027.HK
47.2
44.35
6.43%
639,310
419,646
6.43%
0379.HK
Pme Ord
0.24
0.21
12.86%
1,086,300
189,600
12.86%
0395.HK
0.29
0.14
110.15%
5,711,525
992,400
110.15%
0469.HK
0.33
0.18
83.33%
392,371
3,521
83.33%
0598.HK
Sinotrans Ord H
1.92
1.73
10.98%
376,980
239,730
10.98%
1300.HK
Trigiant Ord
3.21
2.65
21.13%
1,659,511
197,720
21.13%
1928.HK
44.6
43.65
2.18%
452,115
405,508
2.18%
2038.HK
Fih Ord
5.04
4.55
10.77%
1,332,840
793,162
10.77%
2312.HK
0.18
0.12
46.34%
1,066,019
31,596
46.34%
8085.HK
0.34
0.3
13.33%
2,433,400
2,686,469
13.33%
CCMG.SI
0.15
0.15
5.48%
631,960
951,160
5.48%
CORD.SI
1.33
1.09
22.12%
666,770
115,980
22.12%
CRM
Salesforce.Com Ord
49.13
43.59
12.71%
622,522
197,175
12.71%
KHSB.KL
0.84
0.8
5.03%
710,530
27,063
5.03%
OCEA.SI
0.36
0.22
61.36%
1,221,450
173,260
61.36%
PREC.ST
4.12
3.19
29.15%
1,807,664
864,284
29.15%
VOD.L
206.25
191.75
7.56%
8,398,865
3,311,181
7.56%
Page | 17
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
VOD.O
32.35
29.95
8.01%
1,191,002
274,187
8.01%
Name
Close
Close Prev
% $ Ch
Volume
Volume Prev
% Vol Ch
0080.HK
0.68
62.00%
9.68%
299,000
149,000
100.67%
0145.HK
0.46
22.00%
111.63%
1,144,246
13,684
8261.93%
0378.HK
1.83
93.00%
96.77%
204,611
2,300
8796.13%
1063.HK
0.35
24.00%
44.63%
1,232,390
16,836
7219.97%
1900.HK
2.2
190.00%
15.79%
712,860
105,200
577.62%
2668.HK
1.4
110.00%
27.27%
535,700
34,914
1434.34%
2700.HK
0.28
24.00%
14.58%
1,444,375
55,600
2497.80%
8215.HK
0.18
17.00%
7.19%
1,897,100
118,100
1506.35%
8325.HK
1.04
93.00%
11.83%
284,700
61,100
365.96%
ADVE.SI
0.03
2.00%
34.78%
790,680
21,440
3587.87%
AMPL.SI
Amplefield Ord
0.06
5.00%
12.25%
1,796,630
208,080
763.43%
BMRB.L
2.73
243.00%
12.37%
781,477
437,252
78.73%
EMSE.SI
0.04
4.00%
12.82%
503,520
41,360
1117.41%
GMCR
85.61
7638.00%
12.08%
291,533
158,268
84.20%
ISDN.SI
1.27
116.00%
9.52%
211,260
143,990
46.72%
JIHL.SI
0.07
4.00%
94.29%
396,230
14,920
2555.70%
LOW
46.98
4396.00%
6.87%
649,329
369,963
75.51%
PREC.ST
3.19
270.00%
18.15%
864,284
436,881
97.83%
SOLG.L
7.63
430.00%
77.33%
1,222,026
66,976
1724.57%
SRDG.KL
0.1
10.00%
5.26%
619,300
129,608
377.83%
TJX
TJX Ord
54.44
5048.00%
7.85%
231,468
156,626
47.78%
International stock market comparison is calculated over 52 weeks. The Dow Jones is used as the
performance bench mark
Symbol
Name
Close
Prev Close
Indice Change
Strength
Volume
Prev Volume
Volume Change
.N225
Nikkei 225
13,388.86
13,660.55
-1.99%
37.78%
6,318
6,806
-7.17%
.AXJO
S&P/ASX 200
5,134.96
5,123.36
0.23%
5.57%
35,810,920
36,190,859
-1.05%
.SSMI
7,745.97
8,006.90
-3.26%
5.35%
1,709,020
1,493,047
14.47%
.AORD
5,125.30
5,115.17
0.20%
4.72%
48,322,265
48,382,886
-0.13%
.SPX
1,632.97
1,663.50
-1.84%
2.26%
.DJI
14,810.31
15,010.51
-1.33%
0.00%
5,550,723
5,976,832
-7.13%
.GDAXI
German DAX
8,103.15
8,416.99
-3.73%
-0.82%
4,034,307
3,585,915
12.50%
.FCHI
CAC 40 Index
3,933.78
4,069.47
-3.33%
-1.35%
4,307,002
3,696,564
16.51%
.NDX
Nasdaq 100
3,073.81
3,124.27
-1.61%
-2.50%
6,988,055
6,510,224
7.34%
Page | 18
Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges
.HSI
21,731.37
21,863.51
-0.60%
-3.39%
77,381,090
76,712,525
0.87%
.KLSE
1,727.58
1,721.07
0.38%
-6.79%
11,007,514
11,362,019
-3.12%
.SSEC
2,098.38
2,057.46
1.99%
-10.65%
7,110
4,955
43.49%
.FTSTI
3,028.94
3,088.85
-1.94%
-12.56%
21,508,133
14,153,139
51.97%
.BSE500
6,673.96
6,685.37
-0.17%
-14.24%
6,099
5,841
4.42%
.FTSE
6,412.93
6,492.10
-1.22%
31,822,963
26,829,586
18.61%
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It was decided to restrict the forum to readers only. We wanted to create an area where
readers can discuss issues among themselves without being open to scrutiny by the ever increasing
number of forum junkies. Having read numerous posts by many of these individuals over time it would
appear that the vast majority of these out spoken clowns do not trade actively, yet take it upon
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Tools of the Trade:- BullCharts is our preferred trading program, we also use MetaStock EOD, MetaStock Pro,
TradeSim and MetaTrader4. Our brokers are AxiTrader, Alpari (UK) & Halifax. Our preferred data providers are
Premium Data, Reuters Intraday and Reuters EOD.
Contact Details
Email (Trading Queries) :- leon@techanalyst.co.nz
Email (Accounts):- accounts@techanalyst.co.nz
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Copyright Tech Analyst, 2013
Covering NYSE, NASDAQ, London, Frankfurt, Australia, Futures & Forex Exchanges