Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
2014 Outlook
22 January 2014
David Brown
Transaction Services Leader, PwC China and Hong Kong
VC deals refer to financial buyer deals with deal value less than US$10mn
and/or with undisclosed deal value but invested by VCs
PwC
Overview
PwC
Key messages (1 of 2)
Overall
China deal numbers recovered from multi-year lows in the first half of 2013, increasing by more
than 40% in the second half; nearly all categories of M&A showed strong growth
On an annualised basis despite the quiet first half overall deal volumes grew by 8% and
values by 28% in 2013 compared to 2012; deal values reached a record high at US$260 billion
with 43 deals greater than US$1 billion in 2013, compared to 30 in 2012
China Outbound
China outbound M&A recovered with more deals announced in the second half of 2013 than in
any earlier half-year period; and on a full-year basis, outbound M&A compared well with the last
few years, although the soft first half meant no new records in 2013
POE activity was surprisingly low in the first half but rebounded to a new six-month high with 88
announced deals in the second half, whilst SOE activity was robust and deal values held up well
SOEs continued to focus on E&P, resources (raw materials) and industrial sectors, whilst POE
activity was more diversified covering also industrial technologies, consumer related businesses
and high-tech
Destination markets were remarkably similar to 2012 with much of the POE money targeting
established technologies, know-how, IP and brands in mature markets such as the US and
Europe
PwC
Key messages (2 of 2)
Domestic and Foreign-Inbound Strategic
Domestic strategic M&A recovered strongly in the second half of 2013, although full year
numbers were less spectacular due to the slow first half which was affected by political and
economic uncertainties
Foreign inbound M&A was flat; Japanese investment has declined sharply over the last two years
as has investment from the US
Private Equity
Renminbi PE fundraising declined for the second straight year as the domestic Chinese PE
industry continued to consolidate; US$ denominated fundraising has been consistently healthy
over the same period
The number of new investments recovered in the second half of the year and, on a full year basis,
deal values held up well
Growth capital deals declined as the PE industry shifted focus towards PIPE and, increasingly,
buy-out transactions whilst PE interest in outbound deals continued, albeit still at low levels in
absolute terms
PE-backed IPOs showed some recovery in the second half of 2013 off a very low base but it was
the third straight year of decline for PE exits, almost entirely attributable to problems in the
equity capital markets; 2013 was the first year that IPO was not the dominant exit-route
The overhang of new investments compared to exits remains the number one issue affecting the
PE and VC industry
PwC
Outlook
We anticipate strong growth in China outbound, both from SOEs and POEs; 2014 will be a record
year driven by increasing experience and sophistication of Chinese buyers, underpinned by
government support and direction (including SOE reform see below)
Domestic M&A will also grow to new highs, driven by industry consolidation and sector reforms
which will increase competitive pressures; A-share listed companies will be important drivers of
this activity
Foreign inbound investment will also grow as confidence returns in overseas markets especially
in Europe and the US, and as MNCs realign their China strategies resulting in both sale and
purchase of business units and an increasing number of JVs with Chinese partners
PE exits will rebound strongly as IPO markets re-open, but sale by M&A will also grow and we
expect to see more secondary (PE to PE) activity; we also think that the number of new
investments will increase with the trend to buy-outs continuing; although smaller in number, we
will see more outbound PE deals and we expect to see some PE interest in investing in SOEs (see
below) and in A-share listed companies
In summary, we see strong tail-winds for M&A in China: the record trends seen in the second half
of 2013 will continue into 2014
Drivers of this activity will include: further liberalisation of markets; SOE reforms; government
support for M&A generally especially outbound; increasing direct investment activities of large
financial institutions; market-driven industry consolidation; increasing sophistication of Chinese
buyers; and recovering equity capital markets
PwC
China deal numbers recovered from multi-year lows in the first half
of 2013, increasing by more than 40% in the second half; nearly all
categories of M&A showed strong growth
1H12
Volume
2H12
Volume
1H13
Volume
2H13
Volume
% Diff
2H13 v s
2H12
% Diff
2H13 v s
1H13
1 ,1 7 7
1 52
1,329
1 ,4 9 0
1 34
1,624
1 ,09 6
1 23
1,219
1 ,6 08
1 52
1,7 60
8%
13%
8%
47%
24%
44%
1 64
220
384
1 68
2 53
421
1 62
27 6
438
2 05
462
667
22%
83%
58%
27%
67%
52%
26
70
96
22
73
95
28
53
81
31
88
119
41%
21%
25%
11%
66%
47%
HK Out bound
67
99
88
76
(23%)
(14%)
1,87 6
2,239
1,826
2,622
17%
44%
Tot al
PwC
2008
Volume
2009
Value
Volume
2010
Value
Volume
2012
2011
Value
Volume
Value
Volume
2013
Value
Volume
Value
% Diff
% Diff
volume value
2013 vs. 2013 vs.
2012
2012
Strategic buyers
Domestic
Foreign
Total Strategic buyers
3,006
61 4
3,620
1 53.2
1 9.7
172.9
2,7 7 4
409
3,183
1 02.1
1 1 .5
113.6
2,947
539
3,486
1 42.8
1 8.3
161.1
3,262
482
3,744
1 1 9.9
1 7 .6
137.5
2,667
286
2,953
89.6
9.2
98.8
2,7 04
27 5
2,979
1 48.1
1 5.1
163.2
1%
-4%
1%
65%
63%
65%
Financial buyers
Priv ate Equity
VC
Total Financial buyers
365
694
1,059
22.4
1 .8
24.2
254
712
966
22.8
1 .8
24.6
425
1 ,01 1
1,436
25.4
2.6
27.9
502
903
1,405
32.6
1 .9
34.5
332
47 3
805
23.9
1 .0
24.9
367
7 38
1,105
35.0
0.9
35.9
11%
56%
37%
46%
-12%
44%
27
99
126
6.9
3.7
10.5
45
99
144
26.8
6.6
33.4
64
1 24
188
35.2
6.6
41.8
48
1 58
206
33.6
9.6
43.2
48
1 43
191
40.4*
26.0
66.4
59
1 41
200
39.5
1 2.0
51.5
23%
-1%
5%
-2%
-54%
-22%
HK Outbound
156
6.8
152
6.3
171
19.2
183
8.4
166
13.0
164
9.6
-1%
-26%
4,961
214.4
4,445
177.9
5,281
250.0
5,538
223.5
4,115
203.1
4,448
260.2
8%
28%
Total
(US$bn )
(US$bn )
(US$bn )
(US$bn )
(US$bn )
(US$bn )
PwC
41.8
10.5
43.2
22.4
19.7
150
33.4
18.3
32.6
66.4
15.1
17.6
22.8
23.9
11.5
100
35.0
25.4
9.2
153.2
142.8
102.1
50
148.1
119.9
89.6
0
2008
2009
2010
Foreign Strategic Buyers
2011
Private Equity Deals
2012
2013
PwC
10
Strategic buyers
PwC
11
US$ billion
2,000
120
1,800
98.5
1,600
1,400
100
80
1,200
1,000
800
600
54.0
1,177
1,608
60
1,490
40
35.6
1,096
400
200
49.6
20
6.7
8.4
4.0
152
5.2
134
123
152
1H2012
2H2012
1H2013
2H2013
PwC
12
although full year numbers were less spectacular due to the slow
first half which was affected by political and economic
uncertainties
Strategic buyer deals, from 2008 to 2013
No.
US$ billion
4,000
180
3,500
160
153.2
142.8
148.1
3,000
2,000
120
119.9
2,500
3,006
102.1
2,947
100
3,262
2,774
89.6
2,667
1,500
2,704
80
60
1,000
500
140
40
19.7
18.3
614
11.5
409
539
2008
2009
2010
17.6
482
9.2
286
275
2011
2012
2013
0
Announced Deal Volume Inbound
Announced Deal Value Inbound
15.1
20
0
PwC
13
743
3000
2500
1125
358
432
2000
1500
1000
522
372
1015
106
404
381
310
664
252
137
369
446
320
539
614
529
428
475
2008
2009
2010
500
384
500
653
697
264
300
273
315
402
395
352
668
400
404
570
429
575
439
434
2011
2012
2013
0
Industrials
Raw Materials
High Technology
Consumer Related
Real Estate
Financial Services
Others
PwC
14
No.
650
600
550
500
450
400
70
350
300
70
127
92
250
67
200
87
150
29
100
50
124
67
35
23
73
54
31
79
27
46
35
48
67
94
98
89
0
2008
SE Asia
UK
Latin America
2009
Japan
British Virgin/Cayman
Other Europe
2010
EU
Oceania
Russia
2011
66
25
26
34
37
53
58
2012
US
Canada
n.a.
2013
Other Asia
Africa
PwC
15
20
15
0.5
3.0
0.3
10
0.2
2.0
0.8
2.1
3.4
4.3
3.6
0
2008
EU
Oceania
Canada
0.4
2.4
0.2
1.8
1.0
0.8
2009
SE Asia
British Virgin/Cayman
Other Europe
2.9
1.6
5.3
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
0.3
1.2
0.4
1.8
5.9
2010
2011
US
UK
Japan
Africa
Other North Amercia
Russia
0.1
1.2
1.3
3.4
3.6
7.1
1.0
1.3
2012
2013
Other Asia
South America
n.a.
PwC
16
PE
PwC
17
No.
US$ billion
60
300
277
250
50
249
21.8
200
40
172
165
150
21.1
14.9
123
39.8
100
130
20
30
20
31.8
9.5
50
21.0
20.3
10
13
0
4.5
6.7
2008
2009
0
Renminbi Fund Size
2010
2011
Non-renminbi Fund Size
2012
2013
Fund Volume
PwC
18
US$ billion
18.5
300
20
16.5
250
18
16
15.1
14
200
12
150
8.8
10
8
205
100
168
164
162
6
4
50
2
0
1H2012
2H2012
Announced Deal Volume
1H2013
2H2013
PwC
19
US$ billion
550
40
500
400
350
35.0*
32.6
450
30
25.4
22.4
25
22.8
23.9
300
20
502
250
200
425
365
150
35
332
367
15
10
254
100
5
50
0
2008
2009
2010
Announced Deal Volume
PwC
2011
2012
2013
20
13
30
350
8
47
300
250
14
33
200
40
150
60
100
12
20
23
32
77
54
45
50
2008
2009
50
Industrials
Healthcare
Materials
34
31
98
54
72
124
31
31
24
46
44
32
58
45
67
73
88
90
2010
2011
Consumer related
Real Estate
Retail
42
2012
82
2013
High Technology
Energy and Power
PwC
21
500
450
400
350
13
15
118
29
85
18
21
300
132
51
200
150
68
250
329
368
327
246
199
100
206
50
0
2008
2009
2010
Growth
2011
PIPE
2012
2013
Buyout
PwC
22
25
20
20
15
18
23
10
8
11
8
4
0
2008
2009
2010
SWFs
2011
2012
2013
Other PEs
PwC
23
PE/VC backed deal exit volume by type, 2013 vs. 2012 (half yearly)
No.
140
120
100
48
5
80
60
44
1
34
40
64
51
20
34
29
6
0
1H2012
2H2012
IPO
1H2013
M&A - trade
2H2013
M&A - PE
PwC
24
but it was the third straight year of decline for PE exits, almost
entirely attributable to problems in the equity capital markets;
2013 was the first year that IPO was not the dominant exit-route
PE/VC backed deal exit volume by type
No.
350
8
300
6
83
250
91
200
150
92
84
100
212
171
85
44
50
98
88
46
35
0
2008
2009
2010
IPO
2011
M&A - trade
2012
2013
M&A - PE
PwC
25
No.
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
425
502
367
365
254
332
1,011
738
712
694
88
89
46
51
2008
903
2009
212
171
91
97
2010
VC deals
PE deals
473
98
100
2011
M&A exit
2012
35
91
2013
IPO exit
PwC
26
PwC
27
US$ billion
140
45
41.8 *
40
120
35
100
28.5
80
30
24.6
23.0
60
119
96
95
20
15
81
40
25
10
20
0
1H2012
2H2012
Announced Deal Volume
1H2013
2H2013
PwC
28
US$ billion
250
70
66.4 *
51.5
200
60
50
150
43.2
41.8
33.4
100
188
206
191
200
144
126
50
40
30
20
10.5
10
0
2008
2009
2010
Announced Deal Volume
2011
2012
2013
PwC
29
POE activity was surprisingly low in the first half but rebounded to
a new six-month high with 88 announced deals in the second half
China mainland outbound strategic buyer deals, 2013 vs. 2012 (half yearly)
US$ billion
30
No.
140
120
24.0
25
100
80
31
20.7
22
26
18.8
17.9
15
28
60
16.4
40
20
88
70
73
8.1
20
7.8
53
10
5
4.2
0
1H2012
2H2012
1H2013
2H2013
PwC
30
whilst SOE activity was robust and deal values held up well
No.
250
40.4 *
35.2
200
39.5
33.6
35
48
26.8
150
64
48
59
26.0
45
20
100
158
124
99
6.9
15
143
141 12.0
99
9.6
6.6
6.6
2009
2010
10
5
3.7
2008
0
2011
2012
PwC
30
25
27
50
40
2013
31
No.
50
45
40
35
30
30
25
33
20
5
0
18
26
15
10
33
17 10
18
15
6
28
22
17
5
11 13
2013 SOE
15
1
2013 POE
4 10
10
2
2012 SOE
5
1
14
7 3
4
2
2012 POE
PwC
32
57
Europe
57
51
Russia
63
Asia
8 5
25 33
11
South America
9 8
27 29
Africa
Oceania
2012
2013
Source: ThomsonReuters and PwC analysis
PwC
33
PwC
34
Key messages (1 of 2)
Overall
China deal numbers recovered from multi-year lows in the first half of 2013, increasing by more
than 40% in the second half; nearly all categories of M&A showed strong growth
On an annualised basis despite the quiet first half overall deal volumes grew by 8% and
values by 28% in 2013 compared to 2012; deal values reached a record high at US$260 billion
with 43 deals greater than US$1 billion in 2013, compared to 30 in 2012
China Outbound
China outbound M&A recovered with more deals announced in the second half of 2013 than in
any earlier half-year period; and on a full-year basis, outbound M&A compared well with the last
few years, although the soft first half meant no new records in 2013
POE activity was surprisingly low in the first half but rebounded to a new six-month high with 88
announced deals in the second half, whilst SOE activity was robust and deal values held up well
SOEs continued to focus on E&P, resources (raw materials) and industrial sectors, whilst POE
activity was more diversified covering also industrial technologies, consumer related businesses
and high-tech
Destination markets were remarkably similar to 2012 with much of the POE money targeting
established technologies, know-how, IP and brands in mature markets such as the US and
Europe
PwC
35
Key messages (2 of 2)
Domestic and Foreign-Inbound Strategic
Domestic strategic M&A recovered strongly in the second half of 2013, although full year
numbers were less spectacular due to the slow first half which was affected by political and
economic uncertainties
Foreign inbound M&A was flat; Japanese investment has declined sharply over the last two years
as has investment from the US
Private Equity
Renminbi PE fundraising declined for the second straight year as the domestic Chinese PE
industry continued to consolidate; US$ denominated fundraising has been consistently healthy
over the same period
The number of new investments recovered in the second half of the year and, on a full year basis,
deal values held up well
Growth capital deals declined as the PE industry shifted focus towards PIPE and, increasingly,
buy-out transactions whilst PE interest in outbound deals continued, albeit still at low levels in
absolute terms
PE-backed IPOs showed some recovery in the second half of 2013 off a very low base but it was
the third straight year of decline for PE exits, almost entirely attributable to problems in the
equity capital markets; 2013 was the first year that IPO was not the dominant exit-route
The overhang of new investments compared to exits remains the number one issue affecting the
PE and VC industry
PwC
36
Outlook
We anticipate strong growth in China outbound, both from SOEs and POEs; 2014 will be a record
year driven by increasing experience and sophistication of Chinese buyers, underpinned by
government support and direction (including SOE reform see below)
Domestic M&A will also grow to new highs, driven by industry consolidation and sector reforms
which will increase competitive pressures; A-share listed companies will be important drivers of
this activity
Foreign inbound investment will also grow as confidence returns in overseas markets especially
in Europe and the US, and as MNCs realign their China strategies resulting in both sale and
purchase of business units and an increasing number of JVs with Chinese partners
PE exits will rebound strongly as IPO markets re-open, but sale by M&A will also grow and we
expect to see more secondary (PE to PE) activity; we also think that the number of new
investments will increase with the trend to buy-outs continuing; although smaller in number, we
will see more outbound PE deals and we expect to see some PE interest in investing in SOEs (see
below) and in A-share listed companies
In summary, we see strong tail-winds for M&A in China: the record trends seen in the second half
of 2013 will continue into 2014
Drivers of this activity will include: further liberalisation of markets; SOE reforms; government
support for M&A generally especially outbound; increasing direct investment activities of large
financial institutions; market-driven industry consolidation; increasing sophistication of Chinese
buyers; and recovering equity capital markets
PwC
37
PwC
38
Excluded Deals
Property/real estate for individual properties
Rumoured transactions
Options granted to acquire an additional stake when not 100%
of the shares has been acquired
Any purchase of brand rights
Land acquisitions
Equity placements in funds
Stake purchases by mutual funds
Open market share buyback/retirement of stock unless part of
a privatisation
Balance sheet restructuring or internal restructuring
Investments in greenfield operations
Going private transactions
39