BC SEPTEMBER

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM PST, SEPTEMBER 20, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,207 British Columbians by Smart IVR on September 7-8, 2016. A mixture of landlines
and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.09%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based
on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

NDP LEAD LIBERALS, 38%-33%

September 20, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds the BC NDP leading the BC
Liberals by 5% among decided and leaning voters. With 2,207 respondents surveyed from September 7-8,
the Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.09%, 19 times out of 20.
REGIONALS PAINT DETAILED PICTURE
Were seeing three dierent British Columbias, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. While
the NDP are leading on Vancouver Island 48%-23%, with the Greens a close third at 20%, its the Liberals
who are leading in the Interior 36%-31%. Meanwhile, the NDP hold a slim lead in Greater Vancouver just
outside the margin of error.
However there is weakness in the NDPs support. While 50% of voters say the economy will be important
when casting their ballot, only 21% say the NDP are focused on job creation compared to 41% for the
Liberals. 1-in 5 voters could not say if the NDP had a priority at all, more than double the 8% the BC Liberals
scored on the same measure.
ECONOMIC OPTIMISM RELATIVELY HIGH
With a bleak picture of economic optimism in next door neighbour Alberta, BC has relatively high scores.
Asked about the BC economy respondents are split, 42%-40% but asked about their own personal nances
respondents are much more positive. 52% say they are optimistic about their own personal nancial
outlook for the next 12 months. Perhaps more concerning for the BC Liberals should be only 39% of British
Columbians think the province is headed in the right direction while 31% say it is headed in the wrong
direction. With 1-in-3 voters not sure, it doesnt look like either party has been successful in selling a
narrative about the state of the province. Young respondents (18-34) and seniors (65+) were the most likely
to say BC is headed in the wrong direction, and BC seniors, an important voting block, were the most
indecisive with 45% saying they didnt know.
OPINIONS DEADLOCKED ON KINDER MORGAN
When we asked about approval of the proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion we found opinion
deadlocked with 43% opposed and 42% in favour, continued Maggi. Despite these numbers only 27% of
British Columbians believe the pipeline wont be built while 39% believe it will be built regardless and
another 34% arent sure.
Despite their own personal opposition it does look like some British Columbians have begun to accept the
Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion may be approved regardless. These numbers are very similar to the ones
we have found in British Columbia in previous polling.
Opposition to Kinder Morgan was heavily split among gender with 46% of Women disapproving (36%
approval) and 49% of men approving (40% disapproval).
SLIGHTLY MORE OPPOSED TO NORTHERN GATEWAY
Scores for the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline were slightly more negative than those for Kinder
Morgan. 46% oppose the Northern Gateway project with 40% in favour, a 6 point gap. Fewer also believe it
will be built regardless of their own personal support for the project (35%) while roughly the same amount

A3

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

(27%) dont believe the project will be completed. Of note, while 28% strongly disapprove of Kinder Morgan,
32% strongly disapprove of Northern Gateway. Opposition is more pronounced.
BRITISH COLUMBIANS LIKE THE NEW BC CLIMATE CHANGE PLAN
If the NDPs job was to convince British Columbians the new BC Liberal Climate Change plan was a
disaster they mostly failed. Only 47% say theyve been following news about the new climate change plan
and 36% have no opinion about it. 38% say they approve and 26% say they disapprove.
Most tellingly, when we asked those respondents who disapprove of the plan why, only 53% said it was
because the plan didnt go far enough. 28%, almost 1-in-3, said the plan went too far and would hurt
business, the remainder was undecided.
As the BC election approaches economic issues and party organization will become more important than
ever. While the NDP currently has a 5% lead over the Liberals, the NDP have led in the polls before only to
be disappointed when the votes are counted. What should concern them is many more British Columbians
dont know where they stand compared to the Liberals.
There are numbers here that should upset the Liberals as well and with many British Columbians opposed
to new pipelines how they handle any potential pipeline approvals by the federal government may dene
how voters ultimately view their environmental record. While BC is not suering the same economic
malaise as Alberta or Saskatchewan, low economic optimism for the province should come as a concern,
nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available from Ottawa: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For More Information: David Valentin, david@mainstreetresearch.ca, 514-913-5524

A4

DECIDED AND LEANING

38%

16%
33%
14%

Liberal

NDP

Green

Conservative

A5

DECIDED AND LEANING

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

BC Liberal

27%

32%

31%

45%

38%

28%

BC NDP

34%

36%

45%

33%

36%

39%

BC Green

18%

17%

15%

12%

15%

17%

BC Conservative

21%

15%

9%

10%

12%

16%

216

386

539

832

957

1016

PC

Sample

BC

Greater Van

Van. Island

Rest of BC

BC Liberal

33%

35%

23%

36%

BC NDP

38%

38%

48%

31%

BC Green

16%

13%

20%

17%

BC Conservative

14%

14%

10%

16%

Sample

1973

787

464

722

A6

ALL VOTERS

12%

29%

10%

25%

24%

Liberal

NDP

Green

Conservative

Undecided

A7

ALL VOTERS

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

BC Liberal

21%

23%

23%

37%

32%

19%

BC NDP

26%

27%

35%

27%

30%

28%

BC Green

13%

13%

11%

9%

12%

12%

BC Conservative

14%

11%

7%

8%

9%

11%

Undecided

26%

25%

25%

19%

17%

31%

Sample

258

429

609

911

1041

1166

PC

BC

Greater Van

Van. Island

Rest of BC

BC Liberal

25%

26%

20%

27%

BC NDP

29%

28%

37%

25%

BC Green

12%

9%

16%

15%

BC Conservative

10%

11%

7%

10%

Undecided

24%

26%

20%

23%

Sample

2207

882

509

816

A8

Thinking about the next 12 months, would you

say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the
state of BC economy?

100

80

18%

90

70

49%

60

40

40%

50

30
20

51%

42%

10

All

Decided Only

Optimistic

Pessimistic

Not Sure

A9

Thinking about the next 12 months, would you

say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the
state of BC economy?

BC 42%

40%

Greater Van 44%

18%

37%

Van. Island 50%

20%
41%

Rest of BC 34%

9%

45%

20%

Male 42%

40%

18%

Female 42%

40%

18%

18-34 35%

52%

35-49 38%

12%

47%

15%

50-64 50%

25%

65+ 45%
0

10

25%

34%
20

30

40

50

21%
60

70

80

90

100

A10

Thinking about the next 12 months, would you

say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about
your own familys nancial situation?

100

80

20%

90

35%

70

50

28%

60

40
30
20

65%

52%

10

All

Decided Only

Optimistic

Pessimistic

Not Sure

A11

Thinking about the next 12 months, would you

say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about
your own familys nancial situation?

BC 52%

28%

Greater Van 56%

20%

26%

Van. Island 51%

31%

Rest of BC 46%

30%

Male

46%

38%

Female

58%

18%
25%
16%
19%

18-34 60%

15%

30%

50-64 46%

27%

65+ 46%

31%

10

24%

25%

35-49 55%

18%

20

30

40

50

15%
28%
23%

60

70

80

90

100

A12

In your opinion, is BC headed in the right

direction or the wrong direction?

100
90

70

30%

80

44%

60

40

31%

50

30
20

56%

39%

10

All

Decided Only

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Not Sure

A13

In your opinion, is BC headed in the right

direction or the wrong direction?

BC 39%

31%

Greater Van 42%

28%

Van. Island 22%

32%

42%

Female

36%

35%
28%

32%

32%

38%

25%

35-49 46%

29%

50-64 46%

25%

65+ 23%
10

22%

29%

18-34 37%

30%
45%

Rest of BC 44%
Male

30%

32%
20

30

25%
29%
45%

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

A14

How important will job creation and the BC

economy be when you cast your next vote?

80

12%

11%

90

7%

100

70

32%

50

34%

60

21%

30

23%

40

20

31%

29%

10

All

Decided Only

Very Important

Somewhat Important
Not At All Important

Not Too Important

Not Sure

A15

How important will job creation and the BC

economy be when you cast your next vote?

BC 29%

21%

Greater Van 31%

19%

Van. Island 28%

31%

Female

27%

10

11%

40

12%

30%
50

7%
7% 6%

33%
12%

60

5%
9%

14%
32%

22%

30

11%

32%
24%

20

10%
9%

32%

24%

65+ 38%
0

16%

32%

22%

50-64 26%

5%

35%

20%

35-49 31%

7%

14%

28%

26%

18-34 24%

11%

31%

17%

Rest of BC 26%
Male

32%

12%
70

80

90

8%
7%
100

A16

Thinking about the BC NDP led by John Horgan, would

you say they are more focused on job creation, more
focused on the environment, focused on both equally,
or not focused on either issue at all?

100

60
50

14%

22%
13%

70

11%

80

17%

90

40

33%

20

42%

30

27%

21%

10

All

Decided Only

Focused on Job Creation

Focused on the Environment

Focused on Job Creation and the Environment Equally

Not focused on Either Issue

Not Sure

A17

Thinking about the BC NDP led by John Horgan, would

you say they are more focused on job creation, more
focused on the environment, focused on both equally,
or not focused on either issue at all?

BC 21%

33%

11%

Greater Van 21%

33%

13%

Van. Island 20%

38%

Rest of BC 21%
22%

Female

20%

33%

18-34 20%

34%

33%

35-49 22%

32%

50-64 22%

31%

65+ 20%
0

10

8%

20

30

50

29%

12%
13%

22%
22%

13%

21%

12%

13%

21%

14%

6% 11%
40

23%

12%

13%

36%

18%

8%

11%

11%
11%

22%

15%

12%

31%

Male

13%

60

70

20%
27%
80

90

100

A18

Thinking about the BC Liberals led by Christy Clark,

would you say they are more focused on job creation,
more focused on the environment, focused on both
equally, or not focused on either issue at all?

80

8%
9%

90

10%

100

25%

60

27%

70

17%

40

18%

50

30
20

45%

41%

10

All

Decided Only

Focused on Job Creation

Focused on the Environment

Focused on Job Creation and the Environment Equally

Not focused on Either Issue

Not Sure

A19

Thinking about the BC Liberals led by Christy Clark,

would you say they are more focused on job creation,
more focused on the environment, focused on both
equally, or not focused on either issue at all?

BC 41%

17%

Greater Van 42%

15%

Van. Island 26%

Male 43%

17%

18-34 41%

20%

30

40

7% 7%
11%

30%

10%

26%

50

10%

24%

18%
20

5% 7%

26%

18%

65+ 46%
10

25%

24%

12%

50-64 42%

9%
6% 8%

17%

39%

8%

13%

37%
16%

35-49 35%

9%

21%

24%

Rest of BC 48%

Female

25%

9%

20%
60

70

9%
7%
9%
7%

7% 9%
80

90

100

A20

Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed

Kinder Morgan Pipeline expansion?

90

15%

100

80

18%

28%

60

33%

70

20

21%

30

18%

40

15%

50

28%

24%

10

All

Decided Only

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve
Strongly Disapprove

Somewhat Disapprove
Not Sure

A21

Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed

Kinder Morgan Pipeline expansion?

BC 24%

18%

Greater Van 23%

Van. Island 17%

20%
11%

29%

Female

19%

28%

14%

20%

Rest of BC 30%
Male

15%

20%

18-34 24%

11%

15%

25%

11%

31%

14%

19%

12%

65+ 25%

19%

15%

20

30

40

50

19%

28%

19%

19%

10

7%
26%

50-64 25%

20%

14%

15%

15%

35-49 22%

24%

45%

19%

17%

15%

18%
28%

13%

30%

14%

26%
60

70

15%
80

90

100

A22

Regardless of your approval or disapproval, do

you think the Kinder Morgan Pipeline expansion
will be built or not?

100
90

41%

70

34%

80

60

40

27%

50

30
20

59%

39%

10

All

Decided Only
Yes

No

Not Sure

A23

Regardless of your approval or disapproval, do

you think the Kinder Morgan Pipeline expansion
will be built or not?

BC 39%

27%

Greater Van 40%

31%

Van. Island 32%

40%
19%

Male

43%

Female

36%

25%

18-34 36%

31%

39%

29%

35-49 40%

29%
39%
33%

26%

50-64 39%

33%

28%

65+ 41%
10

29%

28%

Rest of BC 42%

34%

33%

21%
20

30

40

50

39%
60

70

80

90

100

A24

Do you approve or disapprove of the Northern

Gateway Pipeline?

90

14%

100

80

40

16%

32%

50

14%

60

37%

70

18%

20

21%

30

26%

22%

10

All

Decided Only

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve
Strongly Disapprove

Somewhat Disapprove
Not Sure

A25

Do you approve or disapprove of the Northern

Gateway Pipeline?

BC 22%
Greater Van 18%
Van. Island 17%

18%

14%

20%

15%

14%

13%

Rest of BC 31%
Male

29%

Female

15%

10

20

28%

30

31%

21%
31%

10%

50

12%

37%

15%
40

10%
18%

19%

21%

11%

36%

12%

19%

65+ 24%

28%

14%

21%

50-64 23%

7%

13%

14%
13%

18%

49%

19%
17%

14%

29%

17%

18-34 24%
35-49 18%

32%

11%
28%

60

70

12%
80

90

100

A26

Regardless of your approval or disapproval, do

you think the Northern Gateway Pipeline will be
built or not?

100
90

60

45%

70

36%

80

40

29%

50

30
20

55%

35%

10

All

Decided Only
Yes

No

Not Sure

A27

Regardless of your approval or disapproval, do

you think the Northern Gateway Pipeline will be
built or not?

BC 35%

29%

Greater Van 31%

36%

26%

Van. Island 33%

43%

38%

29%

Rest of BC 43%
Male

37%

Female

33%

28%
31%
40%
25%

35-49 33%

28%

50-64 33%

33%

65+ 31%
10

32%

27%

18-34 41%

28%

33%
39%
34%

30%
20

30

40

39%
50

60

70

80

90

100

A28

How closely have you been following BCs new

climate change plan?

9%

17%

18%

30%

26%

Very Closely

Somewhat Closely
Not At All Closely

Not Too Closely

Not Aware

A29

How closely have you been following BCs new

climate change plan?

BC 17%
Greater Van 16%

30%

26%

32%

23%

Van. Island 26%

Rest of BC 13%
Male

20%

Female

14%

18-34 15%

29%
29%

22%

65+ 16%

38%

10

20

11%

24%

16%

29%

40

50

9%

14%
30%

30

9%

31%

30%
31%

10%

20%

21%

60

6%

15%
16%

30%

50-64 16%

22%

27%

8%
9%

17%

32%

9%

21%
31%

26%

35-49 20%

18%

9%
7% 8%

70

80

90

100

A30

Do you approve or disapprove of BCs new

climate change plan?

10%

36%

28%

12%

Strongly Approve

14%

Somewhat Approve
Strongly Disapprove

Somewhat Disapprove
Not Aware

A31

Do you approve or disapprove of BCs new

climate change plan?

BC 10%

28%

Greater Van 13%

14%

30%

Van. Island 9%

12%

29%

Female

13%
8%

35-49 9%

12%

65+ 10%
10

13%

21%

43%

13%

18%

31%
20

29%

7% 10%

22%

50-64 11%

14%

10%

40%

32%

40%

15%

27%

36%

11%
15%

29%

18-34 11%

13%

36%

10%

19%

Rest of BC 7% 25%
Male

12%

43%
13%

18%
30

40

50

32%

37%
10%

60

70

32%
80

90

100

A32

Do you disapprove because the plan doesnt go

far enough, or because you believe it will hurt
business? [DISAPPROVE OF PLAN ONLY]

19%

53%

28%

Plan Doesn't Go Far Enough

Plan Will Hurt Business

Not Sure

A33

SCRIPT

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support?
BC Liberals led by Christy Clark
BC NDP led by John Horgan
BC Greens led by Andrew Weaver
BC Conservatives led by Ted Heraldson
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for?
BC Liberals led by Christy Clark
BC NDP led by John Horgan
BC Greens led by Andrew Weaver
BC Conservatives led by Ted Heraldson
Undecided
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the state of
BC economy?
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Not Sure
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about your own
familys nancial situation?
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Not Sure
In your opinion, is BC headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Right Direction
Wrong Direction
Not Sure
How important will job creation and the BC economy be when you cast your next vote?
Very Important
Somewhat Important
Not Too Important
Not At All Important
Not Sure

A34

SCRIPT

Thinking about the BC NDP led by John Horgan, would you say they are more focused on job creation,
more focused on the environment, focused on both equally, or not focused on either issue at all?
Focused on Job Creation
Focused on the Environment
Focused on Job Creation and the Environment Equally
Not focused on either issue
Not Sure
Thinking about the BC Liberals led by Christy Clark, would you say they are more focused on job
creation, more focused on the environment, focused on both equally, or not focused on either issue at
all?
Focused on Job Creation
Focused on the Environment
Focused on Job Creation and the Environment Equally
Not focused on either issue
Not Sure
Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed Kinder Morgan Pipeline expansion?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
Regardless of your approval or disapproval, do you think the Kinder Morgan Pipeline expansion will be
built or not?
Yes
No
Not Sure
Do you approve or disapprove of the Northern Gateway Pipeline?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure

A35

SCRIPT

Regardless of your approval or disapproval, do you think the Northern Gateway Pipeline will be built or
not?
Yes
No
Not Sure
How closely have you been following BCs new climate change plan?
Very closely
Somewhat Closely
Not Too Closely
Not At All Closely
Not Aware of the Story
Do you approve or disapprove of BCs new climate change plan?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
Do you disapprove because the plan doesnt go far enough, or because you believe it will hurt business?
[Somewhat Disapprove/Strongly Disapprove only]
Plan doesnt go far enough
Plan will hurt business
Not Sure

CALGARY GREENWAY

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Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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