Josh Stevens: Case Project #2

Case Project #2: Catawba Valley

Highway Patrol
MS 5023: Decision Analysis and Production
Management
Due: March 21, 2016

Joshua Stevens
Student ID: @01099386

Josh Stevens: Case Project #2

I. Executive Summary
District commander Broderick Crawford of the Catawba Valley Highway
Patrol (in western Pennsylvania) is attempting to assign a total of 23 highway
patrol units to six distinctive various road segments throughout his district.
Commander Crawford has intentions of assigning a designated number of
patrol cars to each distinctive road segment by optimizing his fleet in a way
that best suits five primary goals/ objectives (listed in order of importance):
maintain operating costs to less than $450/day, reduce average accident
rate for the district by five accidents per million miles traveled, achieve at
least 350 physical contacts/ day and at least 30,000 sight contacts/ day by
patrol units, and lower average response time to distress calls from 28
minutes to 15 minutes.
By setting up a linear goal programming equation, placing the set-up in
Microsoft Excel, and using Solver to create a solution that optimizes the
priorities of the objectives of commander Crawford, we are able to provide a
model of the number of patrol units to assign to each of the six varying road
segments. Based on the requirements set-forth by commander Crawford, we
are able to create an optimal solution that keeps operating costs less than
$450/ day, reduces accidents by 5 per million miles traveled, maintains at
least 350 sight contacts/ day, with at least 2 patrol units/ road segment; yet
a maximum of 5 patrol units per road segment. We were short 4900 sight
contacts/ day (from a 30,000 goal), and the average response rate was
lowered from 28 minutes to 15.96 minutes.

Josh Stevens: Case Project #2

II. Formulation of Goal Programming

Problem/ Setup
Catawba Valley Highway Patrol:
x = Road Segment 1: interstate, north
x = Road Segment 2: urban area, north
x = Road Segment 3: four-lane highway, east
x = Road Segment 4: two-lane highway, west
x = Road Segment 5: interstate/four-lane highway, south
x = Road Segment 6: two-lane highway (heavy truck traffic), south

Objectives (goals) in order of importance:

1.) Limit daily operating costs to $450

20x + 18x + 22x + 24x + 17x + 19x 450

2.) Reduce average accident rate for the district by 5 accidents per million miles
traveled

0.27x + 0.21x + 0.28x + 0.19x + 0.23x + 0.33x 5

3.) Achieve 350 physical contacts per day

18x + 26x + 10x + 34x + 25x + 17x 350

4.) Achieve 30,000 sight contacts per day

1700x + 900x + 650x + 230x + 1600x + 520x 30000

5.) Achieve average response time to distress calls of 15 minutes

0.32x + 0.65x + 0.43x + 0.87x + 0.55x + 0.49x (2815)

Constraints:
-

At least two patrol units must be assigned to each road segment (1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
and 6)

x, x, x, x, x, x 2
-

No more than five patrol units for each road segment (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6)

Josh Stevens: Case Project #2

x, x, x, x, x, x 5
-

Must utilize all [23] of the patrol units (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6)

x + x + x + x + x + x = 23

Structure of priorities:
Priority 1 no more than $450 in daily operating costs:

Minimize Pd
Priority 2 achieve accident reduction rate (for district) 5 accidents per million miles
traveled

Minimize Pd, Pd
Priority 3 achieve 350 physical contacts per day

Minimize Pd, Pd, Pd

Priority 4 achieve 30,000 sight contacts per day

Minimize Pd, Pd, Pd, Pd

Priority 5 Lower average response time to distress calls by 13 minutes (from 28
minutes to 15 minutes)

Minimize Pd, Pd, Pd, Pd, Pd

Setup of Goal Programming Problem:

Minimize Pd, Pd, Pd, Pd, Pd
Subject to:
20x + 18x + 22x + 24x + 17x + 19x + d - d = 450
0.27x + 0.21x + 0.28x + 0.19x + 0.23x + 0.33x + d d = 5
18x + 26x + 10x + 34x + 25x + 17x + d - d = 350
1700x + 900x + 650x + 230x + 1600x + 520x + d d = 30000

Josh Stevens: Case Project #2

0.32x + 0.65x + 0.43x + 0.87x + 0.55x + 0.49x + d d = 13

x, x, x, x, x, x 2
x, x, x, x, x, x 5
x, x, x, x, x, x, d, d, d, d, d, d, d, d, d,
d 0

IV. Analysis/ Solutions, Conclusions,

Recommendations
Assignment of Catawba Valley highway patrol units as follows:
x = Road Segment 1: 5 patrol units
x = Road Segment 2: 5 patrol units
x = Road Segment 3: 4 patrol units
x = Road Segment 4: 2 patrol units
x = Road Segment 5: 5 patrol units
x = Road Segment 6: 2 patrol units

d = 4,900 sight contacts (we were unable to meet goal of 30,000

sight contacts by 4,900)
d = 1 minute (rounded to nearest integer; response time from average
of 28 minutes to average of 15.96 minutes)

As a result of the prioritization of the goals laid out by Commander

Crawford of the Catawba Valley Highway Patrol, a goal programming linear
programming equation was set up in Microsoft Excel. The results (as laid out
above) show the optimal number of patrol units to assign to the various
segments of road. Based on the results, we were able to meet the most
pressing objective of setting a limit daily operating costs to $450/ day,
reduce the average accident rate of the district by five accidents per million

Josh Stevens: Case Project #2

miles traveled, and maintain at least 350 physical contacts per day by patrol
unit officers. Unfortunately, we were unable to meet the fourth goal of
30,000 sight contacts by 4,900 contacts/ day: the sight contacts per day fall
short at 25,100. We were also unable to meet the goal of reducing the
average response time in the district to 15 minutes; the average response
time would be 15.96 minutes based on the results of the goal programming
solution.
Upon further analysis/ exploration, if the Commander of the Catawba
Valley Highway Patrol were to change his mind related to the maximum of 5
patrol units per road segment, and allowed one more unit to his patrol fleet
(for a new total of 24 patrol units), he would be able to meet all five of his
goals: operating costs would remain less than $450/day, average accident
rate for the district will reduce by five accidents per million miles traveled,
patrol units will achieve at least 350 physical contacts/ day, patrol units will
achieve at least 30,000 sight contacts/ day, and the average response time
to distress calls will lower from 28 minutes to 15 minutes.

V. References
Gonzalez, D. J. (2016). Multicriteria Decision Making: Chapter 9. University of Texas
at San Antonio. San Antonio. Retrieved February 29, 2016
Hosein, A. (2005, September 1). Two Variable Goal Programming Model with
Priorities. Retrieved March 17, 2016, from
http://prejudice.tripod.com/ME30B/two_gp.htm
Ignizio, J. (1976). Goal Programing and Extensions. Lexington, Massachusetts: D.C.
Health and Company.
III, B. W. (2016). Introduction to Management Science (12 ed.). (E. Gate, Ed.) Harlow,
Essex CM20 2JE, England: Pearson Education.