Beruflich Dokumente
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MARKET PULSE
August 2016
Survey Methodology
Monthly online survey of more than 300 California
REALTORS.
The survey was sent via email to a random sample of
10,000 REALTORS throughout California. The
sample represented the geographical distribution of
C.A.R. membership across the state.
Respondents are asked about their last closed
transaction and business activity in their market area
for the previous month.
MARKET CONDITIONS
Index
60
54
50
40
50
30
20
10
0
Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
48
ListingAppointments/Client PresentationsGrowth
Continues Slowing
Index (>50 is positive)
80
70
55
53
Index
60
50
40
50
30
20
10
0
Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your
market area this month was
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
80
70
Index
60
58
50
40
30
20
10
0
Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
52
49
50
45
40
40
Index
35
39
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Apr-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Apr-15
Aug-15
Dec-15
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
Apr-16
Aug-16
60
Index
50
40
30
39
45 43
20
10
0
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
26%
Lack of Inventory
19%
18%
11%
Housing bubble
6.5%
6.2%
4.0%
1.7%
0%
10%
Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
20%
30%
10
Affordability
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
11
Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
52
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
58
Jul-16
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan-14
Index
51
12
13
LASTTRANSACTION
14
At
Over
27%
25%
34%
29%
30%
30%
48%
Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
41%
36%
15
-2%
-12%
-21%
Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
16
10%
10.0%
8.2%
7.8%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Jul-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
May-16
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
0.0%
17
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
-2%
Aug-14
0%
Jul-14
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-11%
-14%
-16%
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
-12%
-14%
18
58%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
66%
62%
19
Average
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
2.8 2.8
2.4
20
Aug-15
Aug-16
37%
35%
27%
30%
25%
20%
20%
18%
14%
15%
9.5%
10%
4.5%
5%
11%
7.1%
6.4%
3.4%
0%
1
3
4
Number of Offers
Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
6+
21
1-2
3+
90%
32%
80%
44%
42%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
68%
20%
10%
0%
Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
58%
56%
22
Aug-15
Aug-16
28%
30%
24%
25%
20%
20%
13% 14%
15%
10%
5%
10%
13%
15%
12% 12%
9.3%
6.7%
4.0%
0%
Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
6.0%
6.0% 6.7%
23
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
31%
26%
24
45%
43%
39%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
0%
25
18%
16%
16%
15%
10%
5%
Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
0%
26
45%
% First-time Buyers
40%
34%
35%
30%
32%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
0%
27
Investment
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Vacation home
Other
28
Vacation home
30%
25%
20%
2.8%
15%
3.3%
10%
16%
11%
5%
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
0%
29
% International Buyers
12%
10%
8%
6.8%
6%
5.1%
4%
3.5%
2%
Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
0%
30
August 2016
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
San Diego
Riverside
Orange
San Diego
Riverside
Alameda
Sacramento
Contra Costa
Contra Costa
Sacramento
Santa Clara
San Bernardino
Alameda
Santa Clara
San Bernardino
Sonoma
10
Placer
Fresno