York University

MATH 2565 (Winter 2016): Introduction to Applied Statistics

Midterm II Examination Thursday March 17, 2016, 10 am - 11:10 am
Last Name:

Given Names:

Student Number:
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DO NOT WRITE IN THIS AREA

Read the following instructions carefully
1. Students are allowed to bring: a.

One one-sided

8.5x11 formula sheet b. Calculator(s) (cannot use

laptop, cell phone or ipad as calculator)

Question

Max Score

10

2. All work must be done in the free space provided be-

10

low for each problem or on the back of the preceding

10

page.

10

10

TOTAL

50

3. No other sheets of paper will be accepted or marked.

4. This exam consists of 9 pages in total. Last 3 pages
contain three tables.

Your Score

Question 1 (10 marks) Research concerning purchasing habits at the grocery store suggests
that impulse buys make up 60% of all purchases. Suppose 100 customers are selected at
random.
(a) Let X be the number of customers who make an impulse purchase out of the 100
randomly selected customers. Find the mean and variance of X.

Solution = np = 100(.6) = 60, 2 = np(1 p) = 100(.4)(.6) = 24

(b) Find the variance of the sample proportion p =

Solution varp =

p(1p)
n

.6(.4)
100

X
n.

= .0024

(c) find the probability that at most one customer makes an impulse purchase.

Solution

100

100
0 (.4)

++

100

99
1 (.6)(.4)

Question 2 (10 marks) Let X1 , . . . , X16 be a random sample from the N (, 2 ) distribution
with = 5. The sample mean is 4.8 and the sample standard deviation is s = .5967
=
(a) Give the sampling distribution of X

X1 +...+X16
16

N (5, 2 )
Solution X
16
5.2)
(b) Assume 2 = 4 is known. Find P (X

Solution
5.2) = P (
P (X

n(X )
4(5.2 5)

) = P (Z .4) = .6554

5.2)
(c) Assume 2 is unknown. Find P (X

Solution

n(X )
4(5.2 5)

P (X 5.2) = P (

) = P (T15 1.3406) = .90.

s
.5967

Question 3 (10 marks) Suppose a random sample of size n = 80 is obtained from a

population with probability of success p = .35. Let P be the sample proportion of successes.
(a) Find the value a such that P (P a) = 0.1093.

Solution a = p 1.23

p(1p)
n

= 0.284408

(b) Find the value b such that P (P b) = 0.0102.

Solution b = .35 + (2.32) sqrt((.35) (.65)/80) = 0.4737182

(c) What should n be if you want P (P 0.4607) = 0.0102.(Round up to the nearest
integer).

Question 4 (10 marks) Parrot Jungle Island is a roadside attraction in Miami, Florida,
featuring tropical birds, crocodiles, and over 2000 varieties of plants and flowers. A new
advertising campaign was developed to attract more out-of-state visitors. In a random
sample of 270 visitors, 189 were area residents.
(a) Find the sample proportion of visitors who were area residents.

Solution: p=189/270=0.7; n
p = 189 5, n(1 p) = 81 5
(b) Find a 99% confidence interval for the true proportion of visitors who were area
residents.

Solution: 0.7+2.5758*sqrt(0.3*0.7/270)=0.7718356; 0.7-2.5758*sqrt(0.3*0.7/270)=0.6281644

(c) Suppose that you have no prior knowledge of the proportion of visitors who were area
residents. Find the sample size necessary for a 99% confidence interval with a bound
on the error of estimation of 0.05.

Solution: n = 0.5 0.5 {z0.005 /B}2 =663.4746, therefore n = 664.

Question 5 (10 marks) According to the U.S. Fire Administration, approximately 25,000
fires are caused by fireworks each year in the United States. Despite numerous public
warnings against the use of fireworks, the home property damage due to these fires is
enormous. In a random sample of 25 fires due to fireworks, the resulting mean property
damage (in dollars) was 860.75 with a standard deviation 350.50. Assume the underlying
distribution of property damage due to these fires is normal.
(a) Find a 99% confidence interval for the true mean property damage due to a fire caused
by fireworks.

Solution: 860.75+2.7969*350.5/5=1056.813
860.75-2.7969*350.5/5= 664.6873
(b) What is the bound on the error of estimation in part (a)?

Solution: B=2.7969*350.5/5=196.0627
(c) What is the width of a 95% confidence interval for the true mean property damage
due to a fire caused by fireworks?

Solution: 2 t0.025,24 350.5/5 = 2 2.0639 350.5/5 = 289.3588