0 Stimmen dafür0 Stimmen dagegen

0 Aufrufe6 SeitenThe uncertainty analysis has become a very important step in the development of projects at
the petroleum industry, aiming to give a better idea of the possibilities and probabilities of success (profitability), especially when dealing with expensive projects. In geological modeling, this process has a high complexity degree because of the great number of variables required and the quality of the available data. In the present study, an uncertainty analysis of the facies and porosity models was done, using the STOOIP (Stock tank oil originally in place) as objective function. The influence of the geostatistical parameters variation in the reservoir connectivity was also analyzed. To generate an
adequate number of data, several models of each reservoir zone were built and the STOOIP was calculated. The obtained STOOIP values for each zone were combined, using all possible
combinations, and summed in order to obtain a great number of total field STOOIP (106 values). The distribution of the values was analyzed and the percentiles were generated. After the calculation of the percentiles, the original parameters used in the geostatistical model of each zone were accessed again in order to regenerate the complete field model. It was obtained a range of models for each percentile.

Sep 24, 2016

© © All Rights Reserved

PDF, TXT oder online auf Scribd lesen

The uncertainty analysis has become a very important step in the development of projects at
the petroleum industry, aiming to give a better idea of the possibilities and probabilities of success (profitability), especially when dealing with expensive projects. In geological modeling, this process has a high complexity degree because of the great number of variables required and the quality of the available data. In the present study, an uncertainty analysis of the facies and porosity models was done, using the STOOIP (Stock tank oil originally in place) as objective function. The influence of the geostatistical parameters variation in the reservoir connectivity was also analyzed. To generate an
adequate number of data, several models of each reservoir zone were built and the STOOIP was calculated. The obtained STOOIP values for each zone were combined, using all possible
combinations, and summed in order to obtain a great number of total field STOOIP (106 values). The distribution of the values was analyzed and the percentiles were generated. After the calculation of the percentiles, the original parameters used in the geostatistical model of each zone were accessed again in order to regenerate the complete field model. It was obtained a range of models for each percentile.

© All Rights Reserved

Als PDF, TXT **herunterladen** oder online auf Scribd lesen

0 Aufrufe

The uncertainty analysis has become a very important step in the development of projects at
the petroleum industry, aiming to give a better idea of the possibilities and probabilities of success (profitability), especially when dealing with expensive projects. In geological modeling, this process has a high complexity degree because of the great number of variables required and the quality of the available data. In the present study, an uncertainty analysis of the facies and porosity models was done, using the STOOIP (Stock tank oil originally in place) as objective function. The influence of the geostatistical parameters variation in the reservoir connectivity was also analyzed. To generate an
adequate number of data, several models of each reservoir zone were built and the STOOIP was calculated. The obtained STOOIP values for each zone were combined, using all possible
combinations, and summed in order to obtain a great number of total field STOOIP (106 values). The distribution of the values was analyzed and the percentiles were generated. After the calculation of the percentiles, the original parameters used in the geostatistical model of each zone were accessed again in order to regenerate the complete field model. It was obtained a range of models for each percentile.

© All Rights Reserved

Als PDF, TXT **herunterladen** oder online auf Scribd lesen

- Closure of Natural Fractures SPE-153609-MS-P
- Garp Erp Study Notes
- Chapter 3-Rock & Fluid Properties UTM
- 7 1_Aquifers_EM
- Nitrogeoin Rejection Technology for Abu Dhabi
- goal 8-geology by technology
- Hulen
- El Método de Tracy
- ResEng Flame Ch6
- Chemical Flooding
- Ch-2 PVT-oil-2007
- Day 1 Pm - Technical Evidence & Ormen Lange
- b 05910712
- 131255485 Traps Classification PDF
- OTC-18820-MS
- SPE-629-PA
- Investigation of Wellbore Storage Effects on Analysis of Well Test Data
- 4 - Subsea Processing
- Optimizing the Design of Cluster Spacing 111_AP094
- Spe 29958 Ms (Recomend)

Sie sind auf Seite 1von 6

Ana Beatriz Fanha1

Glauber I.de Melo2

Jos Srgio de A.Cavalcante Filho1

Yoe A.Reyes Perez3

1

2

PETROBRAS/INTER-AFE/UN-NIG/ST

3

SCHLUMBERGER-Brazil

ABSTRACT

The uncertainty analysis has become a very important step in the development of projects at

the petroleum industry, aiming to give a better idea of the possibilities and probabilities of success

(profitability), especially when dealing with expensive projects. In geological modeling, this process

has a high complexity degree because of the great number of variables required and the quality of the

available data. In the present study, an uncertainty analysis of the facies and porosity models was

done, using the STOOIP (Stock tank oil originally in place) as objective function. The influence of the

geostatistical parameters variation in the reservoir connectivity was also analyzed. To generate an

adequate number of data, several models of each reservoir zone were built and the STOOIP was

calculated. The obtained STOOIP values for each zone were combined, using all possible

combinations, and summed in order to obtain a great number of total field STOOIP (106 values). The

distribution of the values was analyzed and the percentiles were generated. After the calculation of the

percentiles, the original parameters used in the geostatistical model of each zone were accessed again

in order to regenerate the complete field model. It was obtained a range of models for each percentile.

LOCATION

The field is located in the northeast of Brazil at the Ceara state, (Figure 01). Discovered in

1979, the field is at offshore Cear Basin, in water depths ranging from 35 to 45 meters.

GEOLOGICAL SETTINGS

The field is part of the Munda sub-basin and the structural control for the play is a NW

trending deep-seated fault (throw around 200 m) and a NE dipping ramp with several fault blocks

(Figure 02). The field is divided in two blocks, the high block and the low one. The reservoir rock was

deposited in the Aptiane and is composed of fluvial sandstones and deltaic deposits, that belong to the

Rift/transitional stage in the Munda sub-basin part of Cear basin.

3D GEOLOGICAL MODELING

Zone markers, well logs and petrophysical curves from 29 wells were used to build the model.

The structural surfaces were generated using a 50x50 meters cell grid size that allowed to represent a

siliciclastic reservoir, divided into different faults blocks with part of the top partially eroded (Figures

03, 04).

the faults block

different blocks

After create the model is define the stratigraphic unit, in this case six production zones, the

vertical facies proportion curve of Paracuru formation is show in the Figure 05.

differents layers in stratigraphic model

Paracuru formation

To spread the lithofacies information across the model it was used the geostatistical sequential

indicator simulation algorithm (SIS), vertical facies proportion curves and seismic atribute (amplitud).

The variographic model have a risk level because the horizontal variogram have a great distance of

each data samples related to well spacing (450 m) in constract of the vertical data samples (1 m). The

lithofacies distribution results in the zones is shown below (Figures 07).

The productivity of the reservoir is controled by the geometry, quantity, size and degree of

connectivity of the pores. With objective to study the 3D geologic model and to test the sensitivity

range of uncertainties in the geologic parameters had been varied the facies and porosity models,

looking for the uncertainties in the representation of the heterogeneities that affect the calculation of

the STOOIP (Stock tank oil originally in place). A primary difficulty in the construction of the facies

models is know the size of the bodies. The consequent uncertainty is able to capture these dimensions

when the data is scarce and sparce. The variogram models were the way of capturing these dimensions

and incorporating them in the model but in many times this choice are guided by own of the geologic

concepts.

In this study the first uncertainties test is realized in the facies model with pelites facies, for

this, varied the range the different zones in the variogram model using the experimental variogram

(Table 1).

The second uncertainties test is make in relation to the quality of fcies reservoirs and we

decided to vary the porosity model of sandstones facies( AM and AF) using the experimental

variogram (Table 2).

Using workflow of uncertainty were done 100 simulations for each zone. This workflow tested

the two models simultaneously: fcies (varying the pelites size) and the porosity model (varying the

continuity of the sandstones reservoirs).

In the STOOIP combination and for calculate the respective percentile of STOOIP, two

softwares were used: ACCESS and a program create with the programming language PHYNTON.

These programs were used by the difficulty of working with many data (about two million cases). The

six zones is treatment separately and for each one of them is 100 simulations realizations (600 cases).

The obtained STOOIP values for each zone were combined, using all possible combinations, and

summed in order to obtain a great number of total STOOIP cases (1771561).

For each zone of the reservoir respective STOOIP was calculated using the software Petrel. To

generate a quantity of reasonable data for the probabilistic study, reducing the number of simulations,

was used the concept of derivation tree. This concept guaranteed the mutual combination the values

and including, all of the possibilities of calculus of total STOOIP (Figure 08).

The main advantage of the use of this method is the generation a high number of data for the

study and substantial economy in terms of number of simulations and computacional time (only 100

simulations for each zone). Finaly is selected 50 classses inside of this interval and the histogram was

generated (Figure 9).

Figure 09

probabilities

Distribuition

histogram

of

We can observe that the percentiles the variation is small in the values of OOIP probably

because the range that they had been used did not vary drastically. After the calculation of the

percentiles, the original parameters used in the geostatistical model of each zone were accesses again

in order to regenerate the complete model (Figure 10) and substitutes the values of range for each zone

and each percentile.

CONCLUSIONS

These probabilistic study may be decomposed into the steps:: identification and quantification

of the key parameters affecting the volumes of hydrocarbons; quantification of impact of these key

parameters and provide results as probability distribution of STOIIP. With objective to study the 3D

geologic model and to test the sensitivity range of uncertainties in the geologic parameters had been

varied the facies and porosity models, looking for the uncertainties in the representation of the

heterogeneities that affect the calculation of the volume of oil in place (STOOIP).

In this context a methodology was developed with a detailed study of the process of risk

analysis in the phase of construction of 3D reservoir model using the relative quantification of

geological uncertainties to the reservoirs connectivity.

The results had allowed to quantify the percentile and return to the geological model for

generating new models and obtain a better representation of the probable differences distribution the

reservoirs for the flow simulator.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

CAMPOZANA, F. P.; BACKHEUSER, Y.; ANTUNES, R. F; CAMOLEZE, Z. Stochastic Modeling

and Uncertainty Analysis of Mature Fields.. SPE 108274, 2007.

DELLA FVELA, J. C.; R. A. Medeiros; C. J. Appi; G. Beurlen; M. C. Viviers; Estratigrfica A.

Hashimoto;C. V. Beltrami; I. A. Piazza; P. M. C. Horschutz, 1984. Anlise do Andar Alagoas

na Bacia do Cear. Petrobras/Cenpes/Divex (Rel. Int).

FANHA, A.B.; GLAUBER, I.M.; CAVALCANTE FILHO, J.S.A.; PEREZ, Y. A. R. Quantificao de

Incertezas do Modelo Geolgico 3D de um campo de petrleo. Petrobras, Natal, 2007 (Relatrio

Interno).

FANHA, A.B.; KELLER FILHO, O.; MELO, J.A.G. Modelagem geolgica 3D de Reservatrios com

Mltiplas Camadas.: Petrobras, SIRR-2007.

KELLER, O.F.; A. Souza; 1998. Resultado da Interpretao Ssmica do 3D de Atum - Bacia do Cear.

SOUZA, A.; C. V. Beltrami; L. Gamba; 1990. Mapa Geolgicos Regionais das Formaes e

Paracur do Andar Alagoas da Sub-Bacia de Munda - Bacia do Cear.

- Closure of Natural Fractures SPE-153609-MS-PHochgeladen vonFernando Arteaga Pinto
- Garp Erp Study NotesHochgeladen vonjohn smith
- Chapter 3-Rock & Fluid Properties UTMHochgeladen vonNurzanM.Jefry
- 7 1_Aquifers_EMHochgeladen vonHassan
- Nitrogeoin Rejection Technology for Abu DhabiHochgeladen vonBeshuo
- goal 8-geology by technologyHochgeladen vonapi-331573270
- HulenHochgeladen vonferrer_madridis7629
- El Método de TracyHochgeladen vonyerko
- ResEng Flame Ch6Hochgeladen vonCaleb Jonatan Montes Velarde
- Chemical FloodingHochgeladen vonAnonymous T32l1R
- Ch-2 PVT-oil-2007Hochgeladen vonJosueGuayuscaSoriaGalvarro
- Day 1 Pm - Technical Evidence & Ormen LangeHochgeladen vonMiguel Angel Toala
- b 05910712Hochgeladen vonIOSRJEN : hard copy, certificates, Call for Papers 2013, publishing of journal
- 131255485 Traps Classification PDFHochgeladen vonarispriyatmono
- OTC-18820-MSHochgeladen vonDavid Montoya
- SPE-629-PAHochgeladen vonMelvern Abhinaya Chairul
- Investigation of Wellbore Storage Effects on Analysis of Well Test DataHochgeladen vonOmid Shahbazi
- 4 - Subsea ProcessingHochgeladen vonLeandro Fagundes
- Optimizing the Design of Cluster Spacing 111_AP094Hochgeladen vonecarcova
- Spe 29958 Ms (Recomend)Hochgeladen vonLuthfi Adri
- 00093478Hochgeladen vonmsmsoft90
- EWP Applied TechnologyHochgeladen vonsarah123
- IJG20120400014_28293192.pdfHochgeladen vonSri Endang Wahyuni
- Tutorial 1 EORHochgeladen vonAhmed Faragallah
- Characterization of Fault Zones in the Gullfaks FiHochgeladen vonAntonio Solís
- Asphalthane ReservoirHochgeladen vonmoch syafiq
- Matrix Treatment Design FINAL VERSION.pdfHochgeladen vonMedAnouarRemili
- Assignment 1Hochgeladen vonAileen Arada
- Project Report.docxHochgeladen vonMuhammad Suleman
- EOR-L-10-AH-27 Nop 06Hochgeladen vonDucke Cristie Elias Latumeten

- Student Well Being Workbook: Learning to Thrive and FlourishHochgeladen vonSaidWal
- Soil Nail Thesis PresentationHochgeladen vonvictoryeung
- Hale Kula Elementary Joint Venture Education Forum Norbert Commendation Award Application 2011-2012Hochgeladen vonMegan Cummings
- CRUD Generator for PHP DevelopersHochgeladen vonAlex Enrique Valencia
- consilium.pdfHochgeladen vonSteampunkObrimos
- 55910341 Internship Report on Remington Pharamacuetical LtdHochgeladen vonsyed Muntazir naqvi
- JEROME BRUNER The Narrative Construction of Reality.docHochgeladen vonΝΤσιώτσος
- A practical method for statistical analysis of strain–life fatigue dataHochgeladen vonbloomdido
- final interpersonal letterHochgeladen vonapi-340302003
- Clear Voice DenoiserHochgeladen vondetroit_me2553
- FOR JATI - Studies in Bhartrharis Vakyapadiya..pdfHochgeladen vonDrn Psk
- Reading Program.Hochgeladen vonCari Mendez
- Seminar PptHochgeladen vonRakesh Doddamani B
- X-Plane Helicopter ManualHochgeladen vonErnani Kern
- Furse Exothermic Welding Method StatementHochgeladen vonOğuz Üçer
- How to Remove Recycler Virus From My Drive [Solved]Hochgeladen vonVignesh Chellappan Natarajan
- CONSOLIDATED CHAPTER I..docxHochgeladen vonaccounting prob
- Cement Industry Process Technology - Holderbank Course (2 of 3)Hochgeladen vonNael
- International Businsess - LogisticsHochgeladen vonmy9870712888
- Sr. Project Manager / SuperintendentHochgeladen vonapi-121459116
- Probability SamHochgeladen vonRizky Cynthia Putri
- gas laws in kinetic theory statesHochgeladen vonapi-245497801
- Columbia AnsHochgeladen vonVineet Vinod
- HAZARDS IN GAS OPS.pptHochgeladen vonTri Agung
- paul-rabinow-designing-human-practices-an-experiment-with-synthetic-biology.pdfHochgeladen vonAntonio
- Advance Solution for rubik's cube with beginner method by LupinTheStalkerHochgeladen vonMichaelBonL.Jaime
- Ch7 Sampling Distribution - Suggested Problems SolutionsHochgeladen vonmaxentiuss
- 150811pbdesignthinking-150811053102-lva1-app6892Hochgeladen vonTaofik Rifai
- FAQ_ What’s New in ISO 15614-1_2017Hochgeladen vontomasinka
- Gricean MaximsHochgeladen vonMaryuri Marin

## Viel mehr als nur Dokumente.

Entdecken, was Scribd alles zu bieten hat, inklusive Bücher und Hörbücher von großen Verlagen.

Jederzeit kündbar.