HEADLINE = Why Russia-Pakistan ties should not vex India

STRAP = Russias attempts to improve its underdeveloped ties with Pakistan

should not worry India which enjoys a strategic level engagement with Moscow.

Hows this for timing? On September 23, as many as 250 troops from the Indian
Armys Kumaon Regiment arrived in Vladivostok for INDRA-2016, an 11-day joint
exercise with an equal number of Russian Army troops. On the same day, 70
Russian soldiers arrived in Pakistan for the first-ever Pakistan-Russia joint military
drills named Druzhba-2016.
Coming days after the Uri attack, Druzhba-2016 has caused a collective uproar
across the international border, with some media outfits calling it a Russian snub.
To most Indians it appeared to be a betrayal by a long-time ally.
Its understandable that the average Indian person would react with such dismay
at a time when tensions are running high over the Pakistan masterminded attack
that left 18 Indian Army soldiers dead.
However, considering the extensive and strategic nature of the Indo-Russian
partnership BRICS, G-20 and defence it should be a no-brainer that Moscows
engagement with Pakistan does not come at the expense of its ties with India.
Those who believe Moscow is flirting with Islamabad because India is drifting into
the western camp belong to two categories. One, they probably live under a rock
and have no idea about the nature of Indias ties with Russia. The second group
comprises western commentators and their camp followers in India who want
it to happen and are therefore expressing their inner desire.
According to Petr Topychankov, South Asia expert and Associate in the Carnegie
Moscow Centers Nonproliferation Program,
(http://rbth.com/international/2016/05/24/pakistan-cannot-influence-russiasstrategic-partnership-with-india-exper_596865) Pakistan cannot replace or even
influence Russias strategic partnership with India. This is just impossible.
Russia's priorities are very clear. No matter how long New Delhi will enjoy its
honeymoon in relations with Washington, both India and Russia understand that
their ties cannot be influenced by any third parties.
Historical context
Russia-Pakistan ties had plummeted to such abysmal depths during the Cold War
that they are only now recovering to normalcy. In 1947, when Pakistan was
carved out of India by the retreating British, Soviet strongman Joseph Stalin
believed the emergence of the two countries was just a deal between the Indian
elites and the British imperialists.
In fact, the Soviet media did not pay any attention to the proclamation of the
formation of Pakistan. Nisha Sahai Achuthan writes in Soviet Arms Transfer Policy
in South Asia -1955-81 that the Kremlin did not deem it necessary even to

felicitate to Pakistani leaders on the occasion of the formal inauguration of their

new state. Stalin told an Indian diplomat: How primitive it is to create a state on
the basis of religion. He even expressed the view that a federation between
India and Pakistan would be the ideal solution, and doubted the survival of
Pakistan as an independent nation.
While the Pakistanis didnt like the negative Russian views on the worlds first
Islamic state, the Soviet Union took exception to Islamabads denouncing of
communism. And when the first Pakistani Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan visited
Washington in 1948, and declined Moscows invitation, the rift grew wider.
On October 24, 1952 Izvestia
(http://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/20186/4/04_chapter
%201.pdf) wrote: After Partition...Pakistan began to draw the fixed attention of
the United States imperialist circles. The latter were enticed not so much by the
country's natural wealth as by Pakistan's strategic position, especially its western
part. Taking advantage of the United Nations mediation of the Kashmir dispute,
the United States ruling circles endeavoured to derive from this "mediation"
everything possible for strengthening American position in Pakistan. United
States influence on Pakistan's domestic and foreign policy increased especially
after Liaquat Ali Khan's trip to Washington.
The chances of the two countries coming together disappeared when General
Ayub Khan engineered a coup and took Pakistan into the Baghdad Pact in 1959.
Denouncing the bilateral agreement, Moscow Radio
(http://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/20186/6/06_chapter
%203.pdf) said the Soviet government had several times drawn the attention of
the Pakistan Government to the grave consequences of Pakistans membership
of the Baghdad Pact which had made that country an American bridgehead for
the atomic bombardment of the USSR.
However, it was after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 that ties with
Pakistan rock bottom. Under the dictatorship of General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq,
Pakistan assumed the role of a frontline state against communism and became
the conduit for weapons to be used against the Soviet forces. Over 15,000 Soviet
soldiers died as a result of Pakistans involvement.
It is a miracle that the mighty Soviet Army did not strike Pakistani supply lines
and the numerous training camps where lumpen elements from all over the
world arrived for jehad in reality a one-way mission against the godless
Soviets. Indeed, it is a measure of how much Pakistan was disliked in the former
Soviet Union that long after the country dissolved, it wasnt safe for Pakistani
students and travellers to declare their nationality in places such as Uzbekistan
and Azerbajian, where people held Islamabad responsible for the deaths of their
boys in the Afghan War.
Thawing the Cold War

To borrow the words of Indian diplomat Eenam Gambhir,

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDlzrZ49488) Pakistan has become the Ivy
League of terror. The Pakistani passport is the third most unwelcome travel
document in the world after the passports of Iraq and Afghanistan. Its only friend
or rather patron is China, which uses it as a test market for its export model
weapons. In this backdrop, Pakistan is desperate for new friends, allies or
backers.
The country is an excellent example of what happens to a US ally after it is past
its use by date. It was abandoned after the Afghan war by all its western backers,
to be requisitioned a decade later for the War on Terror, which was in reality
Americas War in Favour of Terror. Now that the US is winding down its operations
in Afghanistan, America is again jettisoning Pakistan. To be sure, Islamabad has
played both sides in the war so it cant really point fingers at the US.
Russia and Pakistan have been circling around some sort of agreement for
decades. During the 1950s, when communist newspapers were attacking
Pakistan, Soviet diplomats left a door open for Islamabad. They said Moscow and
Islamabad differed only 10 per cent while the remaining 90 per cent of their
mutual relationship was fine.
Ayub Khan also hinted that Russia was waiting if the pact with the US didnt work
out. In an interview published in the French newspaper La Monda, he stated that
Pakistan might turn to other powers for help if the United States continued to
underestimate Pakistans needs. He said,
(http://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/20186/6/06_chapter
%203.pdf) The camp opposed to the Americans attaches great importance to
our country both militarily and politically and persistently makes advances to
us.
The Pakistan Times in an editorial commented: Our foreign aid requirements are
vital and urgent, and we cannot be expected to wait indefinitely in the hope that
opinion in America will eventually be persuaded to view our needs with greater
sympathy and understanding. Some other states in a position to help, have in
the recent past repeatedly expressed their desire to give us substantial aid
without political strings, and America should have no grouse if we turn to those
countries to make up the shortfall between our needs and the aid available to us
from our major allies.
History repeats itself. With America withholding military and economic aid,
Pakistani generals who form the deep state that runs the country are
interested in building bridges with Russia.
What Russia wants
The United States retreat from the Middle East and its pivot to the Asia-Pacific
has created several low-hanging opportunities for Russia in the region. Moscow is
moving into Egypt with advanced MiG-35 jets. Iraq is buying Russian attack

helicopters after a 25-year gap. Weapons sales are being considered for Saudi
Arabia. Pakistan is among these new opportunities.
For the first time ever Russian and Pakistan interests have converged in the
backdrop of a resurgent Taliban. Americas slow motion exit from Afghanistan has
got the jehadis salivating at the prospect of regaining power in the war-torn
country. While the Taliban may not have won more than a handful of battles in
Americas longest war, in the popular Afghan narrative they have defeated yet
another superpower. If, and when, they storm the gates of Kabul, the
emboldened Islamists are likely to target Pakistan next.
This has set off the alarm bells in Moscow. The Russians are paranoid about
waves of Islamic terrorists attacking their soft underbelly in Central Asia. First
they will hit Tajikistan, then they will try to break into Uzbekistan... If things turn
out badly, in about 10 years our boys will have to fight well-armed and wellorganised Islamists somewhere in Kazakhstan, current Deputy Prime Minister
Dmitry Rogozin had warned way back in 2009.
(http://mobile.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE50N12420090124?
src=RSS-WOR)
The Pakistanis are worried too. Not only will they lose the hundreds of millions of
dollars in compensation that the United States doles out for the use of Pakistani
military bases, Islamabad feels it is being abandoned in the midst of its fight with
the Islamists.
Although it is a fact that they created the Islamist genie in the first place, for
once the Pakistanis are right in saying they are bigger victims of terror than
India. For instance, in a joint attack in 2011 the Pakistani Taliban and al-Qaeda
nearly totalled the Karachi Naval Base.
(http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/may/23/militants-attack-pakistaninaval-base-karachi) While India suffers a major terror attack once or twice a
year, across the border bomb explosions are a weekly or sometimes daily
occurrence. Its got so bad that Shia mosques in Pakistan dont have regular
prayer times for fear of being bombed by Sunni terrorists.
So, whether India likes it or not, Pakistan is really at the frontlines in the battle
against the Taliban. The Pakistanis are, therefore, looking at extricating
themselves from the US-created mess. For Russia, there could be no better time
to pry Pakistan away from the Americans.
The Mi-25 saga
Druzhba-2016 isnt the first instance where India has behaved like a jilted lover.
In 2014 there was considerable anger among the Indian public when Russia
announced it would supply Mi-25 helicopters to the Pakistan Army. Since Indians
have for decades considered Russians as friends, many felt the sale was a
betrayal. However, it is very likely Vladimir Putins Kremlin had sounded out
South Block before green lighting the deal.

At any rate, New Delhi wasnt upset over the sale of a few 1970s vintage
gunships to the rust bucket Pakistani military. In a previous era, despite being
equipped with better weapons than the Indian side, the Pakistanis botched both
the 1965 and 1971 wars. P.V.S. Jagan Mohan and Samir Chopra describe in their
book Eagles Over Bangladesh (http://www.thedailystar.net/battles-in-the-sky26631) how the Indian Air Force neutralised the Pakistan Air Force in less than
72 hours. Today the Indian military is a behemoth and the balance is skewing
in Indias favour by the day.
Besides, the IAF itself operates two Mi-25 helicopter squadrons (No.104 Firebirds
and No.125 Gladiators) and so the gunship is hardly a secret weapon.
The reason why the Russians offered the Mi-25 helicopter is significant. During
the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, Russian pilots nicknamed the
Mi-25 the Flying Tank because it was not only extremely survivable, it also
created terror among the Afghan mujahidin. The gunship was so effective that
the fear-stricken Islamic fighters called it the "Shaitan-Arba" or Satan's Chariot.
While a handful of gunships to Pakistan wont change the military balance vis-avis India, the Mi-25 can be the game changer in battles with guerrillas up in the
mountains. Also, in Afghanistan where airfields are as rare as hens teeth,
helicopters are the only way to get out and about. By supplying these gunships
to Pakistan, the Russians get the Pakistanis to continue with the job of clearing
up Islamist opposition.
In fact, the proven effectiveness of Russian helicopters was the reason why the
US Defence Department no less paid Moscow $1 billion for supplying the
Afghan military with their gunships.
Indias leverage
As the worlds largest arms importer, India has considerable leverage over
Russia. Moscow is hardly likely to risk its strategic relationship and defence trade
amounting to dozens of billions of dollars by allying too closely Pakistan.
So long as Russia doesnt cross the red line by supply strategic weapons like
long-range jet fighters, submarines or missiles to Pakistan, India doesnt have
any reason to be alarmed by low-key joint military exercises. Sergey Chemezov,
the CEO of the Russian state-run technologies corporation Rostec assures, Our
strategic partner has always been, and will be, India.
Long-term partners
And finally, a note to the media: do not label every new development as a
landmark deal or a strategic decision as you did when Russia announced in
2014 that it was lifting its unofficial arms embargo on Pakistan. Heres why:
between 1996 and 2010 Russia had sold 70 Mi-17 transport helicopters to
Pakistan. There was nothing landmark about the Mi-25 deal.

Joint military exercises are essentially confidence building measures. For Russia
and Pakistan, considering their bitter history, defence contacts are necessary for
erasing their past distrust in order to start over.
The India-Russia relationship is quite stable so the Indian public and media have
no reason to get worked up over 70 Russian soldiers conducting drills with poorly
motivated soldiers
(http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/09/foreign_affairs_magazine_publi.
php) of the Pakistan Army.
According to Topychankov, India will always play a very special role in Russias
foreign policy and Russia is very much interested in keeping the strategic level of
its ties with India.