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Abstract - Adequacy assessment of power systems provides an effective mechanism to ensure proper or acceptable
system performance in the presence of different uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) has been widely used to
evaluate system adequacy of complex power systems. However, one major drawback of MCS is its high computational
cost when power flow calculation is involved in determining system state. Also, the target problem is concerned with
highly imbalanced data sets which may hinder the performance of general classifiers. In this investigation, we propose
a novel hybrid algorithm by combining Monte Carlo simulation with artificial immune recognition system (AIRS). AIRS
is inspired by the biological immune system and has shown
to be an effective classifier. The hyridization significantly decreases the state evaluation time by first deriving a set of artificial recognition balls (ARBs) in the training process, which
can then be used to classify system states without power flow
analyses. A comparison is made with respect to artificial neural network based classifiers including standard backpropagation neural network (BPNN) and Self-Organizing Map
(SOM), and it demonstrates a better performance of the proposed algorithm in terms of both classification accuracy and
computational time.
Introduction
Page 1
Various network flow methods have been used to determine whether a system state constitutes loss-of-load or
not. Typically for multi-area reliability studies, linearized
network flow model or DC load flow are used. In the
composite system reliability studies, either DC or AC load
flow can be used for flow calculations.
2.1
i=1
Subject to:
Pgi (Pli LCU Ti )
jN
1, loss-of-load state;
Xi =
(2.9)
0, otherwise.
Vi Vj Yij cos(ij + j i ) = 0
(2.2)
jN
Qli
)
Pli
Vi Vj Yij sin(ij + j i ) = 0
(2.3)
min
max
Pgi
Pgi Pgi
(2.4)
Qmin
Qgi Qmax
gi
gi
(2.5)
||Sij ||
max
||Sij
||
Step 3: After a certain number of samples, calculate LOLP, variance of the estimated LOLP and the
coefficient of variation.
K
X
\ = 1
Xi
LOLP
K i=1
(2.6)
Vimin Vi Vimax
(2.7)
0 LCU Ti Pli
(2.8)
where
LCU Ti : The amount of real power load curtailed at bus i;
Yij , ij : Magnitude and angle of ij-th element of the admittance matrix Y ;
Vi , i : Magnitude and angle of voltage at bus i;
Pgi , Qgi : Real power and reactive power output of generation at bus i;
Pli , Qli : Real power and reactive power load at bus i;
||Sij ||: Apparent power flow in transmission line between
bus i and j;
min
max
Pgi
, Pgi
: Minimum and maximum real power output
of generator i;
max
Qmin
gi , Qgi : Minimum and maximum reactive power
output of generator i;
Vimin , Vimax : Minimum and maximum of voltage magnitude at bus i;
max
||Sij
||: Maximum allowed apparent power flow in
transmission line between bus i and j;
N : Number of buses.
(2.10)
2
\ ) = 1 (LOLP
\ LOLP
\ )
V (LOLP
K
q
\)
V (LOLP
=
\
LOLP
where K is the total number of samples.
(2.11)
(2.12)
Analogous to the relationship between artificial neural networks (ANN) and biological neural systems (BNS),
artificial immune system (AIS) is the counterpart of biological immune systems (BIS) in the artificial intelligence
domain through mathematical abstraction and modeling.
The immune system in a mammalian body comprises a
set of cells and molecules that guard body against the attacks of various pathogens via complex immunological response mechanisms. AIRS is a BIS-inspired algorithm for
Page 2
(3.13)
where n is the number of training antigens, agi
and agj are the ith and jth training antigens, and
affinity(x, y) returns the Euclidean distance between the two antigens feature vectors. The seeding of initial memory cells and initial ARB population is also accomplished in this step.
Memory cell identification and ARB generation:
Artificial Recognition Ball (ARB) corresponds to
the B-Cell in natural biological systems. An initial set of ARBs and memory cells is randomly generated from the training data. After initialization,
training process is started as a one-shot incremental
learning procedure. Each item in the training data
set is fed to the AIRS for once. The first step is
to locate the memory cell for a given training sample. Each time a new training sample is presented
to the AIRS, the best matching cell from the whole
memory cell population of antigens class is identified, which produces offspring via clonal expansion
operations. Clonal expansion produces the clones
of an antibody proportional to its affinity with respect to the presented antigen. Certain clones undertake mutation by altering some gene information
producing antibody variants. Following this, each
ARB from the refreshed set of ARBs is presented
to the surviving antigen so as to examine its affinity
with the antigen. Then certain amount of system resources proportional to its affinity are assigned to
the ARB appropriately. Given a specific training
antigen, ag, find the memory cell, mcmatch , that
has the following property:
mcmatch = argmaxstimulation(ag, mc),
mc M Cag.c (3.14)
where M C represents the set of memory cells
and mc means an individual member of this set.
(3.15)
Page 3
where the class of each presented test antigen is decided by this set of class prototypes through the knearest neighbor (KNN) scheme. Each memory cell
is iteratively presented with each test instance for
stimulation. The classification of a test instance is
decided based on a majority vote of outputs from
the k most stimulated memory cells.
4
Step 8: If the affinity of mccand for the training instance is better than the affinity of mcmatch , then
inject mccand to the pool of memory cells. Furthermore, if the affinity between mccand and mcmatch
falls within a certain range, then delete mcmatch
from the memory cell pool.
Training Procedure
Step 9: Repeat from step 1 until all training instances have been presented.
After this training procedure is accomplished, AIRS classifies system states based on the k-nearest neighbor voting
mechanism with the evolved set of memory cells.
4.4
Page 4
The IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS) [11] was chosen to test the proposed method. It has 24 buses (10 generation buses and 17 load buses), 38 lines and 32 units.
The system annual peak load is 2850 MW and the total installed generating capacity is 3405 MW. Two sets of studies are to be performed, one considering only the peak load
and the other with multiple load levels. The coefficient of
variation in all MCS simulations is set 0.02.
5.1
Input selection
(5.18)
AIRS training
5.1.4
Computing time
Input selection
(5.19)
AIRS training
Monte Carlo simulation was performed after the memory cells were established. AIRS was used to characterize each sampled state as loss-of-load or not. Twenty-five
thousand states were sampled in the simulation. There
were 24,840 no-loss-of-load states and 160 loss-of-load
states as characterized by AIRS. Thus the estimated LOLP
is 0.0064. Monte Carlo simulation combined with OPF
was performed to obtain the benchmark value of LOLP for
multiple load levels. For the 25,000 states sampled above,
there were 24,912 no-loss-of-load states and 88 loss-ofload states as characterized by OPF. Therefore the computed benchmark value of LOLP is 0.0035. Among the
24,912 no-loss-of-load states classified by OPF, 24,837
states were classified correctly by AIRS, resulting in a
classification accuracy of 99.70%. Among the 88 lossof-load states, 85 states were classified correctly by AIRS,
giving a classification accuracy of 97.12%.
5.2.4
Computing time
Comparative Study
Page 5
rate (TNR) presents the classification accuracy of success system states. They are used to define the new index
g mean:
TP
TPR =
(5.20)
TP + FN
TN
TN + FP
g mean = T P R T N R.
TNR =
(5.21)
(5.22)
The index g-mean examines the classification accuracies on both positive and negative classes. The g-mean
is high only if both TPR and TNR are large and the difference between them is small. For instance, the g-mean
value of the classifier in the previous example is zero, although the overall accuracy is as high as 95%. The results
for comparison in different load levels using straight MCS,
MCS-BPNN, MCS-SOM, and MCS-AIRS are given in
Table 2 and Table 3, which show the mean values over
40 runs. We can find that in all evaluation scenarios, the
straight MCS exhibits the much poorer computational efficiency than the hybrid ones, and between them MCSAIRS is the most computationally efficient. MCS-BPNN
derives solutions of the relatively lowest quality among
these three hybrid algorithms. The solution quality of
MCS-AIRS is also somewhat higher than the MCS-SOM
in terms of different measures including TPR, TNR, and
g-mean.
Methods TPR (%) TNR (%) g-mean Time (s)
MCS
N/A
N/A
N/A
128.8
MCS
89.65
99.14
0.9428
9.2
-BPNN
MCS
96.77
99.39
0.9807
4.3
-SOM
MCS
98.11
99.62
0.9886
2.4
-AIRS
Table 2: Comparative Results for State Classification (Peak Load Level).
Methods
MCS
MCS-BPNN
MCS-SOM
MCS-AIRS
TPR
N/A
86.98
93.39
97.12
TNR
N/A
99.16
99.60
99.70
g-mean
N/A
0.9287
0.9645
0.9683
Time
189.3
28.5
16.9
11.7
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Concluding Remarks
[2] C. Singh, X. Luo, and H. Kim, Power system adequacy and security calculations using Monte Carlo
Simulation incorporating intelligent system methodology, Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power
Systems, Stockholm, Sweden, 2006.
[16] M. Kubat, R. Holte, and S. Matwin, Machine learning for the detection of oil spills in radar images,
Machine Learning, Vol. 30, pp 195-215, 1998.
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