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Table Of Contents
Monte Carlo Models Using Weibull Equations For Excel Version 5.0 Spreadsheets
If you get a message "Can't resolve circular references", just click "OK".
Monte Carlo Simulations Notes
Click
Click
Process Diagram Simulation
Generate Random Numbers
Click
Click
Air Compressor Life & Costs
Simple Series Failure Model
Click
Click
Fault Tree Analysis
Competing Series Failure Model
Click
Click
Age Of Part At Time Zero
Optimum Replacements
Click
Click
Fix Failuers On Overtime?
Replacement/Inspection
Click
Click
Plant Manager's Production Model
Maintenance Replacement Strategy
Click
Click
Weibull Facts
TBA
Click
Click
TBA
TBA
Click
Click
TBA
TBA
Click
Click
TBA
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Page 17
Why Use Monte Carlo Simulations
Table of Contents
Why Use Monte Carlo Simulations

(A little bit of Monte Carlo simulation information for orientation--see readling list at the end of this information)
Read this narrative (double click inside this box and cursor down or pull down the lower edge of this block). Then slide this sheet to one side, I.e., click on the
border, hold down the left mouse key, and drag to one side to uncover the spread sheet.
Do not delete this sheet, you may need some clues later when you build your own models!
1. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations use random numbers and math/statistical models to simulate (imitate) reality. We make assumptions about how a model
behaves (based on samples of data or engineering assumptions) to gain an understanding about how the corresponding real life system behaves.
2. Most real-world systems are too complex for analytical evaluations. Models must be studied with many simulations to estimate real-life conditions. MC
models are computer intensive and require many iterations to get a central tendency.
3. MC models help solve complicated deterministic problems (I.e., no random components) and probabilistic (stochastic) problems (I.e., contains random
components). Deterministic systems usually have one answer and perform the same way each time. Probabilistic systems
Page 18
Weibull Statistical Values For Non-symmetrical distributions

<--Input of variable data
<--Output of calculated results
Input these facts:
158.80
3.12
0.00
50.00%
100.00
Get these results:
<-- = Eta characteristic values

<-- = Beta slope values
<-- t0 = Location shift or threshold parameter (sometimes called the failure free interval when t0>0)
<-- p = probability of failure (see row 16 for results)--also referred to a B-%Value or L-%Value
<-- t = a life value for calculating the CDF (see row 18 for results)
49.85
<-- = Weibull standard deviation
142.06
141.20
<-- = Weibull mean
140.30
141.20
0.35
21.04%
78.96%
0.007371
0.00582
<-- Median = Weibull median (where 50% of the units will be expected to have failed)
<-- Mode = Weibull mode (requires b >1, else the mode become t 0)
<-- tp = Life at which a specified percentile of failures (from row 9) will occur (or B-life in engineering ter
<-- CV = Weibull coefficient of variation
<--CDF = % failed by time t
<--Reliability = % surviving by time t
<--Hazard function = instantaneous failure rate at time t
<--PDF = relative frequency at time t
Press the F9 key to update calculations
failure free interval when t0>0)
o a B-%Value or L-%Value
ted to have failed)
will occur (or B-life in engineering terminology)
Generate Random Numbers
Random Numbers Are Used To

Generate Random Times To Failure
Simulation Objective: Generate random times to failure for one to six data points per set and show how the
calculations of and vary on each iteration because of randomness in the data.
Generate
Choose A Choose A Only One
Generate
Age To
Value of Value Of
Generate Two Three Age To Generate Four Generate Five Generate Six
Beta
Eta
Failure
Age To Failures
Failures
Age To Failures Age To Failures Age To Failures
3.1
18000
8,342
21,771
15,101
29,563
15,821
20,881
21,771
15,101
29,563
15,821
12,166
15,101
29,563
15,821
7,498
Change as required
29,563
15,821
16,994
15,821
15,845
13,481
"X" (age to failure time) is regressed on "Y" (the CDF) to calculate the indicies shown below:
Two Age To Failures
i values
1
2
Raw age
to failure
data
x values
21,771
0.292
21,771
0.708
--
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
3.045
Correl-->
#DIV/0!
Calculated
--
21,770.57
15,101.35
29,563.47
15,821.00
16,268.90
Correl2-->
#DIV/0!
Calculated R2
--
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.9733
slope,
#DIV/0!
char.life, 21770.57
--
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.055
Error in
--
-3,770.57
2,898.65
-11,563.47
2,179.00
1,731.10
Min
--
21,771
15,101
29,563
15,821
7,498
Max
--
21,771
21,771
29,563
15,821
Raw age
to failure
data
i values
x values
1
15,101
0.206
2
15,101
0.500
3
15,101
0.794
lnln(1-/(1-F( ln(t)
-1.064673 9.988314
0.208755 9.988314
Calculated
Error in
Three Age To Failures

sorted
y=2
values
21,771
21,771
Four Age To Failures

sorted
y=3
values
15,101
15,101
15,101
i values
1
2
3
4
Raw age
to failure
data
29,563
29,563
29,563
29,563
x values
0.159
0.386
0.614
0.841
lnln(1-/(1-F(
-1.974459 9.669093
lnln(1-/(1-F(
-0.050266 10.29429
-0.972686 9.669093
-2.155616 8.922452
0.60883 10.29429
-0.366513 9.669093
-1.17527 9.406436
0.144767 9.669093
-0.601544 9.509055
0.714455 9.669093
-0.147287 9.670633
Correl-->
#DIV/0!
Correl2-->
#DIV/0!
slope,
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
char.life, 29563.47
17,769
15,101
15,821
14,478
15,101
29,563
15,821
14,663
Geo.Mean
--
21,771
15,101
29,563
15,821
13,803
Std Dev.
--
4,566
char.life, 15101.35
15,101
ln(t)
#DIV/0!
Correl -->
#DIV/0!
slope,
#DIV/0!
char.life, 15821.00
0.794337 9.946596
Correl-->
0.986543
Correl2-->
0.973267
3.045
char.life, 16268.90
Press the F9 key to update calculations
Page 21
ln(t)
0.281918 9.740633
Correl-->
slope,
Over many trials, the errors are smaller for larger numbers of samples drawn from the random numbers.
sorted
y=6
values
7,498
12,166
13,481
15,845
16,994
20,881
-0.716717 10.29429
slope,
21,771
1
2
3
4
5
6
lnln(1-/(1-F( ln(t)
-1.752894 10.29429
20,881
21,771
i values
9.6225
#DIV/0!
--
x values
0.130
0.315
0.500
0.685
0.870
Raw age
to failure
data
x values
20,881
0.109
12,166
0.266
7,498
0.422
16,994
0.578
15,845
0.734
13,481
0.891
0.45771
#DIV/0!
--
1
2
3
4
5
Six Age To Failures

sorted
y=5
values
15,821
15,821
15,821
15,821
15,821
ln(t)
9.6225
9.6225
Correl2-->
Median
i values
Raw age
to failure
data
15,821
15,821
15,821
15,821
15,821
lnln(1-/(1-F(
-1.467402
-0.366513
Correl-->
Average
Five Age To Failures

sorted
y=4
values
29,563
29,563
29,563
29,563
Simple Failure Model
Simple Failure Model

Simulation Objective: Show how simple systems are modeled for system failure (using least time to
failure criteria for each iteration and including suspended [unfailed] data).
Component
Beta
Eta
Simulated Failure Time '
1
1.8
18000
2
3.7
8000
3
2.5
12000
4
0.7
75000
35,406
8,115
10,967
52,439
Status Suspended
Time To Fail -35,406
Failed
8,115
Change As Required
0
Suspended Suspended
-10,967
-52,439
8,115
<--System Failure Time
Record Of Failures (negative values are suspensions):
Component:
1
-21,932
-14,717
4,409
-6,266
-30,393
-21,477
-7,367
2
-4,940
7,437
-7,981
5,235
-7,987
3,778
-7,351
3
-9,803
-14,767
-4,928
-14,699
-19,864
-9,168
6,237
4
1,469
-60,838
-11,127
-281,120
4,556
-185,829
-11,308
System
1,469
7,437
4,409
5,235
4,556
3,778
6,237
Page 22
Air Compressor Model
Simulation Objective: Find MTTF, repair costs, MTTR, and overall maintenance cost of a compressor.
Given:
From the Weibull library, select Weibull characteristic failures for each component.
Solve the Weibull equation for time to failure. Use a uniform distribution of random number for the CDF which will vary between 0 and 1.
Record the least time to simulated failure, replace with a new part, and resume the simulation.
Know component failures to simulate performance of the system!!!!!
Data Given For The Simulation
Component
Failing
Auto Drain
Reed Valves
Unloader
Bearings
Rings
Pistons
Check Valve
Motor
Vee Belts
Weibull
beta
Weibull
eta
(hours)
1.9
2.3
4
2.5
2.5
3
1.1
7
1.9
5,000
6,000
5,000
12,000
10,000
15,000
10,000
12,000
8,000
$ Cost
per
failure
$100
$1,500
$200
$15,000
$7,500
$10,000
$500
$4,000
$1,800
Repair
Time
(hrs)
Time to
simulated
failure*
1.5
22.5
3
225
112.5
150
7.5
40
3
6,721
7,490
5,745
11,426
8,846
12,787
19,276
9,362
4,694
Minimum Time To Failure For Each Iteration**-->

Note: The Weibull value for motor is purposely chosen as a wrong number!
Find By Simulation***
Decision
Total #
Total
Total Time
Column
Failures Accumulated
Total Cost
To Repair
of Failures
For
Simulate
Time For
Failures
Simulation
d
Failures
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
1
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
4,694
Err:522
Err:522
Mean time to failure-->
Note: This model has been supersceeded by MCSAMPLE.XLS
Failure rate-->
Mean time to repair-->
Maintenance cost per hour-->
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522 hours
To run a single simulation, press F9 with the following selections: Tools, Options, Calculations, Manual, Iterations, Max Iterations=1
Reed Valves
Unloader
Bearings
Rings
Reliability Block
Diagram
Vee Belts
Motor
Check Valves
Pistons
Find By Simulation***
Decision
Total
Total
Total #
Total
Column
Accumulated Time To
Failures
Cost of
For
Time For
Repair
Simulated
Failures
Simulation
Failures
Failures
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Mean time to failure-->
Err:522 failures/hr
Err:522 hours
Err:522 $/hr
Auto Drain
Time to
simulated
failure*
Page 23
Failure rate-->
Mean time to repair-->
Maintenance cost per hour-->
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522 hours
Err:522 failures/hr
Err:522 hours
Err:522 $/hr

Simulation Objective: Find the reliability of the block diagram system to meet the business plan by simulationNo repairs allowed.
Failure Time (mo.)
Dryer
A
3.3
Dryer
B
Name Plate Capacity

Best 1 mo. actual capacity
Can We
Meet The
Business
Plan ?
Business Plan Forecast
Name Plate Capacity (tons/mo)

A
B
C
System
200
250
300
750
170
240
285
695
450
<--Change as required
Each dryer has a 3 year working life and is renewed once per year.
Output Model For Each Dryer = (name plate capacity)*exp(-((t-t 0)/)^
27.9
Dryer Deterioration Characteristics
Dryer
C
t0 (months)
1.0
Output: tons/mo
Jan
Feb
A
182
171
B
244
238
291
0
C
Total System
716
409
Annual Equipment Reliability-->
Years Of Service Simulated-->
Mar
Apr
162
0
232
226
0
0
394
226
Err:522
Err:522
May
0
221
0
221
A
0.7
B
1
C
0.9
28
40
48
System
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
215
210
205
200
195
190
185
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
215
210
205
200
195
190
185
Annual Production Reliability Of Meeting Business Plan Forecast-->
Total
515
2560
291
3365
Mo. Average
42.88
213.30
24.24
280.42
Err:522
Total Attempts
Annual Production Successes
Annual Reliability-->
Years Of Service Simulated-->
Page 24
Err:522
Err:522
Annual Production Reliability Of Meeting Business Plan Forecast-->
Err:522
Optimum Replacement
Simulation Objective: Find the optimum (lowest cost per unit of time) replacement interval using zero time replacement parts.
Planned
Unplanned
Replacement Replacement
See results of iterations in cells A141:C141
Cost
Cost
3
15
$10,000
$100,000
<--Change As Required
The "X" time axis is used for making timed replacements. If a part fails before the replacement interval is reached, extra costs
are charged for an "in service" failure. Otherwise the lower cost are used for an "off line" replacement in the iterations.
Beta
Eta
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacements
madeWhen
when: 1)Failure
the part
fails Ifbefore
reaching
replacement
or When
2) when Failure
the replacement
interval
is reached.
Failure
Times IfareTimes
Times
Times
WhentheFailure
Times time,
Times
Times Times
When
Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When Failure Times Times When
ForThan
a6, t = 0.75
ForThan
a7, t = 1.5
For a8,
t = 2.25
For a9,
t = 3Failure Times If For
t = 3.75
t = 4.5
t = 5.25
t = 6.75
t = 7.5
t = 8.25
t = 9.75
t = 10.5
t = 11.25
t = 12
t = 12.75
t = 13.5
t = 14.25
t = 15
t = 15.75
t = 16.5
t = 17.25
t = 18
t = 18.75
t = 19.5
t = 20.25
t = 21
t = 21.75
t = Failure
22.5
For a36,
30Times
Less
Failure Times
Less
Failure Times If Less
Than
Failure Times If Less
Than
Lessa10,
Than
Failure Times If For
Lessa11,
Than
Lessa12,
Than
Lessa13,
Than
Lessa14,
Than
Lessa15,
Than
Lessa16,
Than
Lessa17,
Than
Lessa18,
Than
Lessa19,
Than
Lessa20,
Than
Lessa21,
Than
Lessa22,
Than
Lessa23,
Than
Lessa24,
Than
Lessa25,
Than
Lessa26,
Than
Lessa27,
Than
Lessa28,
Than
Lessa29,
Than
Lessa30,
Than
Lessa31,
Than
Lessa32,
Than
Lessa33,
Than
Lessa34,
Than
Lessa35,
Than
Times If Less
Thant= Failure
Simulated Time
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
To Failure
10 Replacement Than Planned1 Replacement Than Planned2 Replacement Than Planned2 Replacement Than Planned3 Replacement Than Planned4 Replacement Than Planned5 Replacement Than Planned5 Replacement Than Planned6 Replacement Than Planned7 Replacement Than Planned8 Replacement Than Planned8 Replacement Than Planned9 Replacement Than Planned
10 Replacement
10 Than Planned Replacement
10 Than Planned
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Planned Replacement Time-->
0.75
1.5
2.25
3
3.75
4.5
5.25
6
6.75
7.5
8.25
9
9.75
10.5
11.25
12
12.75
13.5
14.25
15
15.75
16.5
17.25
18
18.75
19.5
20.25
21
21.75
22.5
30
Items Failed Before Replacement-->
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Items Replaced Before Failure-->
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Cost per unit of time-->
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Lowest Cost Replacement Time-->
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Plotting Details:
Reset details:
Optimum PM
Replacement
Time
Err:522
Err:522
Cost Per Unit

Of Time At
Optimum
Replacement
Err:522
< Each iteration uses 100 random draws of failure times.
$6.00
10
$/(u n it o f tim e )
$8.00
N u m b e r O f R e p la ce m e n ts
Number Of
Iterations
$12.00
Optimum Re placement Interval
$10.00
Number Of
Iterations
Optimum PM
Replacement
Time
0.00
Cost Per Unit

Of Time At
Optimum
Replacement
$0.00
oReplaced before failure by P M action ---Failed before timed replacement occured
12
$4.00
$2.00
4
2
$0.00
Aging Tim e
0
P lanned (bu t Not O pti m um ) Rep lacem e nt Age
<--Replacement time
Page 25
Replacement Inspection
Replacement/Inspections
Simulation Objective: Given two components in a system with differenct failure distributions, find when inspections, PM
replacements, and breakdown repairs must occur.
Ground rules: Failure times are simulated for each component. If the simulated time is less than
the inspection interval, a failure has occured. If the time is greater than the inspection interval but
less than the PM interval, then an inspection occurs. If the time is greater than the PM interval (but
less than 1.5 times the interval) a PM replacement occurs. If the time is greater than 1.5 times the
PM interval, a failure has occurred. For Chance failures and infant mortality failures, set the PM
Replacement interval to 200 times the characteristics life to avoid replacement flags from appearing
in the decision logic.
Part A
Beta
Eta
Inspection
Interval
6.00
13,000
5,000
PM
Replacement
Interval
10,000
Failure
Inspect
Replace
Eta
1.00
50,000
8,000
100,000,000
Failure
Inspect
Replace
156,612
23,801
23,920
88,042
115
102,968
95,569
81,062
71,929
32,868
139,381
153,218
Err:508
Part A Record of Actions
Inspect
Inspect
Inspect
Inspect
Failure
Inspect
Inspect
Inspect
Inspect
Inspect
Inspect
Inspect
System
Part B
Beta
Inspect
PM Replacement
Interval
Inspection
Interval
Simulated
Time To
Action
28,655
Record:
Simulated
Time To
Action
12,255
Replace
Part B Record of Actions
14,213
15,833
11,603
15,903
13,708
13,260
15,236
8,076
8,155
14,006
12,586
13,612
Replace
Failure
Replace
Failure
Replace
Replace
Failure
Inspect
Inspect
Replace
Replace
Replace
Page 26
<--Change As Required
Ag e Of Part At Time Zero
Simulation
Obje ctive:
If fi rst fail ure
i s l ess th an
PM
re pla ceme nt
a ge, repl ace
the b roke n
p art. If
co mpon en t
l ife excee ds
re pla ceme nt
Component
Data
i nterval
the n
re pla ce th e
u nfai led
Eta
p art.Beta
Find the
optim
um
1.9
3000
r epla ce me
nt inter val.
Interval For
PM Replacement
3000
Earl y Fail ure

Co st (Lo st
Rep lace ment
pro ductio n +
Co st
Re pla cemen t)
$ 10,000.00 $ 2,500.00
N umbe r Of
Ea rly
Fai lure s
633
N umbe r Of
Ea rly Fa ilu re Replacement Cost
Su ccessful
Co st
Rep lace men ts
367
$ 6,330,000
Change the replacement interval to minimize the cost/hour

Sim ulate d
Hour s
Fa iled Before
Age To
Acc um ulate d
Failur e PM Inte rva l? On Component
0 = N o,
1
Star ting At
Until Fa ilure Or
= Yes
Time Zer o
Replace me nt
1375.0
1834.5
2087.7
4362.9
5594.8
1072.7
1213.9
1294.4
1782.6
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1374.97
1834.50
2087.74
3000.00
3000.00
1072.67
1213.93
1294.39
1782.58
2277.9
1832.8
2915.7
2716.0
1
1
1
1
2277.95
1832.75
2915.71
2716.01
968.4
4504.6
2984.8
1647.5
1
0
1
1
968.39
3000.00
2984.79
1647.54
1156.9
2027.6
1081.7
2339.0
1
1
1
1
1156.89
2027.62
1081.73
2339.04
678.8
2791.3
3657.1
3381.3
1
1
0
0
678.83
2791.30
3000.00
3000.00
2426.5
1417.5
741.8
3583.7
1
1
1
0
2426.55
1417.51
741.78
3000.00
2399.5
846.8
2153.1
4916.3
1
1
1
0
2399.47
846.77
2153.07
3000.00
6664.7
543.2
4726.1
3572.8
0
1
0
0
3000.00
543.24
3000.00
3000.00
3794.0
1837.8
1757.4
2845.9
4497.1
3793.4
1148.2
1761.1
2909.0
8331.1
539.7
3843.6
2851.6
2705.0
3975.6
3729.7
3120.2
3398.4
2342.3
3307.3
2760.5
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
3000.00
1837.80
1757.42
2845.90
3000.00
3000.00
1148.16
1761.08
2908.95
3000.00
539.68
3000.00
2851.62
2704.96
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
2342.28
3000.00
2760.45
3925.4
2465.1
4595.0
2632.0
0
1
0
1
3000.00
2465.11
3000.00
2632.00
1366.7
3131.3
1829.7
2099.8
1
0
1
1
1366.74
3000.00
1829.69
2099.79
2700.7
1500.2
1293.1
2621.5
1
1
1
1
2700.74
1500.19
1293.05
2621.51
4899.1
2669.5
2308.4
2326.2
0
1
1
1
3000.00
2669.45
2308.41
2326.20
5312.4
3000.00
1692.5
1867.2
2962.8
1264.5
1
1
1
1
1692.45
1867.15
2962.78
1264.50
3184.5
4069.4
3606.3
3423.9
0
0
0
0
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
1437.5
4281.6
2637.1
1030.0
1
0
1
1
1437.50
3000.00
2637.05
1029.99
2414.1
1569.0
2476.3
4139.8
1
1
1
0
2414.05
1569.02
2476.31
3000.00
6350.1
2611.4
6325.9
5062.2
0
1
0
0
3000.00
2611.38
3000.00
3000.00
5828.0
1230.0
5353.0
0
1
0
3000.00
1229.98
3000.00
1771.9
1854.8
2347.8
587.1
1
1
1
1
1771.92
1854.76
2347.85
587.11
5674.0
1192.7
1391.9
1737.0
0
1
1
1
3000.00
1192.71
1391.95
1737.01
2070.8
3489.7
157.1
3154.1
1
0
1
0
2070.80
3000.00
157.14
3000.00
5005.6
2239.1
1871.2
811.1
0
1
1
1
3000.00
2239.14
1871.17
811.08
4248.1
3798.6
0
0
3000.00
3000.00
2663.2
3220.8
1
0
2663.17
3000.00
299.7
5427.1
1
0
0
0
3000.00
3000.00
1
1
2390.75
723.17
3884.8
2070.2
1268.8
3935.5
0
1
1
0
3000.00
2070.19
1268.85
3000.00
2004.3
4010.9
355.6
6237.0
1
0
1
0
2004.25
3000.00
355.65
3000.00
2198.7
3484.0
2049.1
1128.8
1
0
1
1
2198.66
3000.00
2049.07
1128.84
4205.4
3201.7
4232.4
3013.2
0
0
0
0
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
2234.8
3927.0
672.4
2650.1
1
0
1
1
2234.77
3000.00
672.43
2650.10
2047.7
3637.4
1992.2
1
0
1
2047.68
3000.00
1992.24
2401.5
487.9
406.4
6369.8
1
1
1
0
2401.51
487.89
406.35
3000.00
3999.8
1405.4
2321.5
5037.4
0
1
1
0
3000.00
1405.41
2321.52
3000.00
1702.3
5760.5
4317.1
3395.1
1
0
0
0
1702.34
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
1467.0
4228.1
2471.9
4791.4
1
0
1
0
1467.03
3000.00
2471.88
3000.00
5061.0
1393.7
0
1
3000.00
1393.72
894.4
4851.6
1
0
894.42
3000.00
1321.5
439.3
1
1
1321.55
439.33
3498.0
526.7
Page 2 7
299.69
3000.00
3478.5
4865.4
2390.7
723.2
0
1
3000.00
526.70
1175.4
2521.4
1
1
1175.42
2521.42
2512.7
2092.5
4772.9
1969.7
1
1
0
1
2512.67
2092.47
3000.00
1969.66
5263.2
2960.4
1082.1
307.5
0
1
1
1
3000.00
2960.41
1082.08
307.52
2114.4
4916.7
6078.6
1923.6
1
0
0
1
2114.43
3000.00
3000.00
1923.63
4177.3
1042.8
4141.6
7864.5
0
1
0
0
3000.00
1042.81
3000.00
3000.00
2190.4
704.8
1587.8
1
1
1
2190.37
704.75
1587.81
4159.0
3742.7
1583.4
777.6
0
0
1
1
3000.00
3000.00
1583.44
777.57
3933.5
4086.0
2730.9
3036.8
0
0
1
0
3000.00
3000.00
2730.87
3000.00
3386.6
807.5
2870.2
1659.8
0
1
1
1
3000.00
807.49
2870.21
1659.77
1598.6
3405.6
1807.0
5652.2
1
0
1
0
1598.62
3000.00
1807.04
3000.00
4378.6
3059.0
5536.1
2090.4
0
0
0
1
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
2090.42
1739.1
1356.0
1
1
1739.11
1356.03
2275.7
4150.7
1
0
2275.65
3000.00
2801.2
2425.6
1
1
2801.25
2425.64
1962.1
3959.8
1
0
1962.11
3000.00
1929.6
2756.0
1
1
1929.56
2756.02
2241.3
3322.5
600.8
219.4
1
0
1
1
2241.27
3000.00
600.76
219.42
633.9
4134.1
5636.5
3429.9
1
0
0
0
633.92
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
1068.3
2061.5
7025.3
1417.3
1
1
0
1
1068.28
2061.54
3000.00
1417.32
466.4
3470.5
1840.4
2590.6
1
0
1
1
466.41
3000.00
1840.44
2590.62
2681.8
1986.8
3156.2
1
1
0
2681.81
1986.81
3000.00
5103.5
3042.7
2964.2
1958.8
0
0
1
1
3000.00
3000.00
2964.24
1958.79
862.5
864.7
2681.5
4135.6
1
1
1
0
862.52
864.73
2681.52
3000.00
2098.5
1734.2
5364.7
1913.0
1
1
0
1
2098.53
1734.25
3000.00
1913.02
2204.1
1482.8
1659.2
2372.3
1
1
1
1
2204.07
1482.79
1659.22
2372.32
3252.9
1177.8
0
1
3000.00
1177.82
1167.2
1481.5
1
1
1167.18
1481.54
550.8
2193.7
1
1
550.82
2193.73
2220.4
1895.0
1
1
2220.44
1895.00
1314.7
4924.4
1
0
1314.73
3000.00
1265.7
2306.9
2251.3
2486.3
1
1
1
1
1265.69
2306.86
2251.29
2486.29
4744.5
3019.7
1843.7
3127.2
0
0
1
0
3000.00
3000.00
1843.70
3000.00
3429.0
1955.2
2286.5
979.1
0
1
1
1
3000.00
1955.25
2286.48
979.08
4077.6
2617.0
1740.0
1564.5
0
1
1
1
3000.00
2616.96
1739.97
1564.47
4301.5
3185.5
0
0
3000.00
3000.00
917,500.00
Total
C os t/hour
Total Cost
$
7,247,500
3.25
1487.3
1487.28
905.9
3396.4
1539.1
1822.6
1
0
1
1
905.92
3000.00
1539.09
1822.60
4907.5
4525.6
1958.3
3962.6
0
0
1
0
3000.00
3000.00
1958.31
3000.00
780.8
4250.7
4210.6
4853.8
1
0
0
0
780.79
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
1683.2
1953.6
3847.6
1724.9
1926.5
1703.6
1815.2
3139.3
3679.9
1005.8
643.7
2951.5
5121.3
2321.8
3392.9
3042.7
814.3
2324.7
4734.8
1900.2
5633.5
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
1683.18
1953.56
3000.00
1724.90
1926.51
1703.61
1815.25
3000.00
3000.00
1005.79
643.66
2951.46
3000.00
2321.83
3000.00
3000.00
814.35
2324.73
3000.00
1900.18
3000.00
2476.0
4043.1
943.8
2149.3
1
0
1
1
2476.01
3000.00
943.78
2149.31
1938.7
1597.4
4219.8
1592.1
1
1
0
1
1938.66
1597.36
3000.00
1592.13
1626.6
3897.2
1612.3
3570.4
1
0
1
0
1626.64
3000.00
1612.29
3000.00
2202.4
2199.1
4703.7
2527.8
1
1
0
1
2202.37
2199.06
3000.00
2527.83
1620.5
3185.1
3639.2
2759.9
1
0
0
1
1620.48
3000.00
3000.00
2759.85
1196.5
1878.2
4418.8
685.9
1
1
0
1
1196.45
1878.18
3000.00
685.91
5081.9
1663.5
2943.9
3760.3
0
1
1
0
3000.00
1663.45
2943.89
3000.00
3890.6
1633.1
4944.2
3361.6
253.1
3577.8
2878.0
1016.6
1282.6
4109.0
4349.9
2331.7
2172.1
1485.3
688.7
2393.4
2146.7
3616.3
2945.1
1700.4
1978.6
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
3000.00
1633.13
3000.00
3000.00
253.08
3000.00
2877.96
1016.59
1282.57
3000.00
3000.00
2331.70
2172.08
1485.27
688.70
2393.37
2146.74
3000.00
2945.13
1700.41
1978.63
1767.7
6327.4
4949.4
4334.8
1
0
0
0
1767.70
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
4051.9
1838.1
4904.3
1342.2
0
1
0
1
3000.00
1838.13
3000.00
1342.17
3257.0
3000.00
1
1
2407.88
2186.02
0
1
3000.00
715.55
3373.1
3094.8
0
0
3000.00
3000.00
4006.0
4607.9
0
0
3000.00
3000.00
3624.7
3134.7
1437.7
447.3
0
0
1
1
3000.00
3000.00
1437.73
447.31
3738.5
2791.8
187.5
2545.2
0
1
1
1
3000.00
2791.78
187.49
2545.24
2848.4
6018.9
2122.6
1485.0
1
0
1
1
2848.38
3000.00
2122.64
1485.01
1447.1
1550.3
2511.1
4637.1
1
1
1
0
1447.11
1550.27
2511.08
3000.00
3839.7
2209.2
2327.8
0
1
1
3000.00
2209.22
2327.83
1354.9
3646.6
2551.9
2480.2
1
0
1
1
1354.95
3000.00
2551.95
2480.19
5604.5
5238.3
509.9
2304.1
0
0
1
1
3000.00
3000.00
509.91
2304.06
1978.8
5105.5
4450.0
5424.3
1
0
0
0
1978.81
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
3407.4
2313.9
1249.6
5692.1
0
1
1
0
3000.00
2313.87
1249.62
3000.00
2622.5
2569.5
1636.0
1770.4
1
1
1
1
2622.47
2569.52
1636.00
1770.44
1104.8
3071.5
1
0
1104.78
3000.00
963.9
3320.8
1
0
963.87
3000.00
2677.5
2198.2
1
1
2677.53
2198.17
1157.2
2451.8
1
1
1157.23
2451.80
5672.4
4342.5
0
0
3000.00
3000.00
4642.7
3734.4
1169.3
1172.2
0
0
1
1
3000.00
3000.00
1169.32
1172.25
2232.9
3038.8
1554.4
2072.3
1
0
1
1
2232.91
3000.00
1554.44
2072.26
2436.6
1642.1
4274.1
1267.8
1
1
0
1
2436.59
1642.08
3000.00
1267.82
1461.3
3634.4
2147.6
2205.5
1
0
1
1
1461.33
3000.00
2147.59
2205.51
3984.6
978.4
3309.9
0
1
0
3000.00
978.43
3000.00
6764.9
1490.3
3170.0
2078.4
0
1
0
1
3000.00
1490.25
3000.00
2078.37
3142.5
3692.2
5363.8
3129.7
0
0
0
0
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
3524.9
3266.0
658.6
4546.2
0
0
1
0
3000.00
3000.00
658.62
3000.00
3157.7
2059.0
2621.6
3022.8
0
1
1
0
3000.00
2058.95
2621.61
3000.00
3405.2
1394.4
0
1
3000.00
1394.41
1776.5
212.6
1
1
1776.52
212.58
2541.0
2894.1
1
1
2540.97
2894.09
4680.5
1853.3
0
1
3000.00
1853.27
1792.3
2460.1
1
1
1792.35
2460.07
2662.3
679.4
1
1
2662.28
679.44
1779.0
2565.2
1
1
1779.00
2565.24
4800.5
1716.8
3824.2
2396.5
0
1
0
1
3000.00
1716.77
3000.00
2396.52
3812.2
3627.9
1445.9
2478.1
0
0
1
1
3000.00
3000.00
1445.88
2478.14
2183.6
1660.3
2107.6
3500.6
1
1
1
0
2183.58
1660.27
2107.57
3000.00
4047.0
2670.2
4625.7
607.6
0
1
0
1
3000.00
2670.15
3000.00
607.64
936.0
4556.9
2188.8
1
0
1
936.05
3000.00
2188.82
2487.9
2397.0
3233.2
4082.3
1
1
0
0
2487.94
2397.04
3000.00
3000.00
6585.8
554.8
5202.2
3892.7
0
1
0
0
3000.00
554.77
3000.00
3000.00
221.0
881.4
4694.0
514.2
1
1
0
1
220.98
881.42
3000.00
514.20
1714.3
1963.1
2454.7
2934.4
1
1
1
1
1714.32
1963.11
2454.66
2934.39
2938.8
2802.0
1
1
2938.83
2802.03
3020.4
2913.9
0
1
3000.00
2913.92
2652.4
2357.0
1
1
2652.41
2356.96
1472.8
3073.7
1
0
1472.83
3000.00
1802.8
3068.9
1
0
1802.76
3000.00
3000.9
130.7
775.7
4940.6
0
1
1
0
3000.00
130.68
775.65
3000.00
4065.5
2572.7
1249.2
645.2
0
1
1
1
3000.00
2572.72
1249.20
645.18
203.9
4699.5
5597.9
311.0
1
0
0
1
203.88
3000.00
3000.00
310.97
433.6
1671.7
2424.8
3781.2
1
1
1
0
433.57
1671.74
2424.78
3000.00
1544.8
1740.5
2232.9
2002.2
1
1
1
1
1544.79
1740.52
2232.89
2002.16
2657.8
1467.5
4609.6
1
1
0
2657.80
1467.53
3000.00
1234.8
2249.6
2613.3
3700.4
1
1
1
0
1234.80
2249.63
2613.25
3000.00
1829.3
1866.1
5044.9
2530.3
1
1
0
1
1829.30
1866.05
3000.00
2530.32
4026.3
1352.7
2611.3
4265.2
0
1
1
0
3000.00
1352.73
2611.33
3000.00
2876.9
5317.5
622.0
2224.2
1
0
1
1
2876.94
3000.00
622.04
2224.16
3793.0
7226.2
Page 2 8
2407.9
2186.0
4403.1
715.5
0
0
3000.00
3000.00
2393.4
2150.9
1
1
2393.38
2150.92
2689.7
3107.0
1
0
2689.68
3000.00
3846.2
5243.2
0
0
3000.00
3000.00
2841.8
3046.5
1
0
2841.84
3000.00
2679.8
324.7
2374.5
2744.1
1
1
1
1
2679.81
324.68
2374.55
2744.07
526.2
4127.8
1990.7
1763.9
1
0
1
1
526.19
3000.00
1990.67
1763.91
3456.2
3491.8
0
0
3000.00
3000.00
4366.2
3000.00
3921.1
4066.3
616.9
1080.1
0
0
1
1
3000.00
3000.00
616.95
1080.15
1599.3
2668.6
1143.7
2399.5
1
1
1
1
1599.35
2668.58
1143.71
2399.52
2773.6
5896.3
3633.1
5426.4
1
0
0
0
2773.55
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
6444.8
1797.6
2867.1
3887.7
2024.1
2814.0
163.4
3214.1
2429.9
2198.4
114.4
1373.0
4486.7
3190.0
1639.9
5260.1
943.2
1650.9
2236.2
3926.6
1388.6
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
3000.00
1797.65
2867.06
3000.00
2024.05
2813.98
163.44
3000.00
2429.88
2198.40
114.36
1372.97
3000.00
3000.00
1639.90
3000.00
943.19
1650.94
2236.24
3000.00
1388.64
1581.1
4490.0
2725.2
1966.6
1
0
1
1
1581.12
3000.00
2725.19
1966.55
4326.1
3135.8
2315.7
1413.8
0
0
1
1
3000.00
3000.00
2315.66
1413.78
2014.1
1258.8
1383.9
1432.4
1
1
1
1
2014.15
1258.84
1383.88
1432.40
3687.3
3819.4
698.4
1447.4
0
0
1
1
3000.00
3000.00
698.42
1447.44
500.0
3633.1
4133.5
242.1
1
0
0
1
499.95
3000.00
3000.00
242.14
2052.2
2215.1
923.4
2169.8
1
1
1
1
2052.17
2215.09
923.43
2169.82
2956.4
5009.0
4439.8
2596.9
1
0
0
1
2956.37
3000.00
3000.00
2596.95
1660.7
3129.5
3618.9
2008.9
1396.8
5581.7
1553.9
844.6
3576.6
2833.3
2216.2
2372.4
647.9
1477.0
4756.7
3014.4
425.2
2060.3
1817.1
1694.2
1147.5
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1660.75
3000.00
3000.00
2008.87
1396.81
3000.00
1553.88
844.63
3000.00
2833.27
2216.15
2372.39
647.88
1477.04
3000.00
3000.00
425.21
2060.32
1817.08
1694.18
1147.54
2913.8
4240.3
3620.2
4681.6
1
0
0
0
2913.79
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
2407.7
1816.7
3704.3
2225.5
1
1
0
1
2407.68
1816.70
3000.00
2225.47
2668.5
2668.52
1
1
1897.90
533.17
0
0
3000.00
3000.00
1947.2
2237.3
1
1
1947.24
2237.29
3645.8
1222.7
0
1
3000.00
1222.69
2536.1
2416.7
3502.0
611.8
1
1
0
1
2536.08
2416.73
3000.00
611.75
944.1
1257.8
1480.7
3807.8
1
1
1
0
944.12
1257.81
1480.74
3000.00
3595.5
1251.2
553.3
2435.9
0
1
1
1
3000.00
1251.19
553.32
2435.86
2905.4
4669.9
2860.4
3637.6
1
0
1
0
2905.35
3000.00
2860.40
3000.00
1883.6
2311.5
4775.9
1
1
0
1883.58
2311.53
3000.00
4380.4
5870.1
1913.6
3133.4
0
0
1
0
3000.00
3000.00
1913.63
3000.00
2376.0
2908.7
2821.1
1423.4
1
1
1
1
2375.98
2908.69
2821.09
1423.39
1600.7
1335.7
1549.0
757.8
1
1
1
1
1600.72
1335.65
1548.99
757.83
2627.2
1148.7
3139.9
1262.9
1
1
0
1
2627.23
1148.72
3000.00
1262.93
1148.9
1248.3
3189.4
1804.2
1
1
0
1
1148.92
1248.30
3000.00
1804.18
4761.7
495.0
0
1
3000.00
495.03
2581.9
3681.8
1
0
2581.87
3000.00
2021.4
3821.2
1
0
2021.43
3000.00
2668.1
1792.4
1
1
2668.08
1792.44
2629.8
845.1
1
1
2629.76
845.13
1030.1
4517.7
755.7
776.8
1
0
1
1
1030.07
3000.00
755.71
776.77
2477.2
4592.1
3163.4
668.1
1
0
0
1
2477.22
3000.00
3000.00
668.07
676.2
2298.6
2730.0
1443.7
1
1
1
1
676.16
2298.60
2730.00
1443.67
4433.6
2294.7
2008.5
1939.3
0
1
1
1
3000.00
2294.67
2008.53
1939.31
1060.0
2641.9
6243.2
1
1
0
1060.02
2641.93
3000.00
1815.2
2183.9
3616.2
4363.2
1
1
0
0
1815.16
2183.86
3000.00
3000.00
3124.3
1993.8
2291.9
926.0
0
1
1
1
3000.00
1993.77
2291.90
925.97
1498.5
3250.1
2078.5
3249.6
1
0
1
0
1498.50
3000.00
2078.48
3000.00
1745.5
3810.1
2450.8
5637.8
1
0
1
0
1745.52
3000.00
2450.85
3000.00
1062.8
2266.9
1
1
1062.78
2266.93
2257.3
2370.7
1
1
2257.31
2370.70
1642.8
2623.8
1
1
1642.81
2623.78
2462.1
1861.9
1
1
2462.07
1861.90
2091.3
928.9
1
1
2091.28
928.93
891.0
3431.9
1
0
891.02
3000.00
1444.3
493.7
1
1
1444.26
493.72
1397.9
2434.2
1066.8
5582.3
1
1
1
0
1397.93
2434.24
1066.83
3000.00
3478.3
1174.5
1655.6
1535.8
0
1
1
1
3000.00
1174.46
1655.58
1535.85
2457.0
2852.6
857.7
3328.8
1
1
1
0
2457.00
2852.59
857.66
3000.00
2965.7
1347.4
3670.2
1660.4
1
1
0
1
2965.66
1347.36
3000.00
1660.39
2440.6
1851.5
3960.3
1
1
0
2440.61
1851.54
3000.00
2035.8
3176.1
2874.2
1765.3
1
0
1
1
2035.78
3000.00
2874.19
1765.29
3595.0
3034.7
1910.0
4923.4
0
0
1
0
3000.00
3000.00
1909.95
3000.00
4802.1
893.5
827.9
4468.2
0
1
1
0
3000.00
893.54
827.86
3000.00
3682.2
2189.2
3223.3
4790.7
0
1
0
0
3000.00
2189.22
3000.00
3000.00
1508.0
1278.6
1
1
1508.05
1278.56
918.0
2296.7
1
1
918.02
2296.66
135.3
4629.3
1
0
135.32
3000.00
1877.8
3742.3
1
0
1877.78
3000.00
1700.1
2418.3
1
1
1700.11
2418.35
2701.6
5089.2
3562.1
1890.6
1
0
0
1
2701.60
3000.00
3000.00
1890.62
3940.0
900.2
2032.2
2158.4
0
1
1
1
3000.00
900.19
2032.21
2158.38
3102.9
1258.6
1990.7
3957.6
0
1
1
0
3000.00
1258.58
1990.71
3000.00
2385.7
515.7
1793.7
2332.7
1
1
1
1
2385.70
515.74
1793.75
2332.72
2714.3
2986.5
6475.2
1802.4
1
1
0
1
2714.29
2986.48
3000.00
1802.40
1875.5
2111.5
133.4
1
1
1
1875.50
2111.51
133.41
2673.3
3336.4
1760.7
4556.3
1
0
1
0
2673.27
3000.00
1760.66
3000.00
2122.8
4304.7
1636.5
2608.8
1
0
1
1
2122.78
3000.00
1636.50
2608.80
370.8
3199.3
2976.1
2399.1
1
0
1
1
370.81
3000.00
2976.06
2399.09
2791.0
1894.3
2760.0
2542.6
1
1
1
1
2791.03
1894.30
2760.04
2542.63
2837.4
4932.9
Page 2 9
1897.9
533.2
3795.1
5895.7
1
0
2837.38
3000.00
317.8
3100.4
1
0
317.75
3000.00
3362.8
3210.2
0
0
3000.00
3000.00
1169.9
3503.0
1
0
1169.90
3000.00
345.6
4156.7
1
0
345.59
3000.00
4466.5
1111.9
2393.8
3735.4
0
1
1
0
3000.00
1111.92
2393.83
3000.00
1640.9
1704.1
1774.3
2627.4
1
1
1
1
1640.90
1704.08
1774.28
2627.36
2919.3
1945.3
1
1
2919.31
1945.35
PM Interval
0
0
5705.5
3168.0
3584.6
5374.0
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
1
1
1
1
592.90
424.21
571.43
2138.08
1
1
1
0
2202.38
878.45
2056.71
3000.00
3255.2
1965.3
2437.3
1336.8
0
1
1
1
3000.00
1965.30
2437.30
1336.79
6707.6
2413.1
0
1
3000.00
2413.06
2488.8
4849.3
1
0
2488.82
3000.00
2165.4
3928.2
1
0
2165.36
3000.00
4806.7
5151.3
Page 3 0
0
0
0
0
592.9
424.2
571.4
2138.1
2202.4
878.5
2056.7
3445.2
0
0
3000.00
3000.00
3376.1
872.0
0
1
3000.00
871.97
2427.7
4245.9
1787.0
2693.6
1
0
1
1
2427.70
3000.00
1786.97
2693.56
3094.9
1106.9
992.6
3424.9
0
1
1
0
3000.00
1106.91
992.57
3000.00
965.0
3121.9
2449.5
1369.2
1
0
1
1
964.99
3000.00
2449.45
1369.17
3468.2
1594.6
2222.8
6622.0
0
1
1
0
3000.00
1594.58
2222.83
3000.00
5135.3
2606.0
1708.6
0
1
1
3000.00
2605.99
1708.61
3337.9
3700.6
5659.7
3716.3
0
0
0
0
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
4147.9
4237.3
3777.2
3575.7
0
0
0
0
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
3672.4
3839.9
1140.4
4239.6
0
0
1
0
3000.00
3000.00
1140.45
3000.00
1332.2
4266.6
1571.1
1820.9
1
0
1
1
1332.21
3000.00
1571.09
1820.93
819.3
2628.1
772.3
3433.1
1
1
1
0
819.29
2628.14
772.34
3000.00
955.3
1761.0
1
1
955.27
1760.95
2718.6
2476.4
1
1
2718.60
2476.35
1583.6
2849.7
1
1
1583.63
2849.65
208.0
1484.7
1
1
208.02
1484.74
2805.3
6977.4
1
0
2805.31
3000.00
2851.4
4269.7
1878.0
3127.2
1
0
1
0
2851.43
3000.00
1878.03
3000.00
2997.9
2090.9
1592.7
2434.8
1
1
1
1
2997.89
2090.85
1592.71
2434.85
1936.0
557.8
3839.5
4081.5
1
1
0
0
1936.01
557.78
3000.00
3000.00
844.5
1024.1
1647.1
3523.5
1
1
1
0
844.45
1024.12
1647.10
3000.00
2409.4
1983.0
1008.3
1
1
1
2409.44
1983.00
1008.32
2231.8
2920.5
2229.0
1103.7
1
1
1
1
2231.76
2920.48
2229.04
1103.66
699.2
2948.7
3001.6
2479.6
1
1
0
1
3295.9
5661.1
2565.1
2258.8
0
0
1
1
1357.7
5737.4
1620.5
5301.0
1
0
1
0
1357.69
3000.00
1620.47
3000.00
1000
633
2227794.10
699.24
2948.74
3000.00
2479.63
3000.00
3000.00
2565.13
2258.83
FTA
Fault Tree
Analysis
Failure Item
Chance For
Failure
Random #
Item Fails
0 = Failure
1=
Success
Subassy
Fails
0=Failure
1=Success
1
2
3
4
5
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.837372
0.291753
0.398703
0.36767
0.345132
1
0
0
0
0
Err:522
Cum System
Failures-->
Err:522
Cum System
Success ->
Reliability Block Diagram

(Success Diagram)
Assembly
Fails
0=Failure
1=Success
Top Level
Simulated
Theoretical
Fails
Chance For Chance For
0=Failure
Failure
Failure
1=Success
1
0
0
0
Cum
Iterations
-->
Err:522
Fault Tree Diagram

(Failure Diagram)
Err:522
% error-->
0.6048
Err:522
Incident
RR=1-(0.2)*(0.2)=0.96
RL=1-(0. 2)*(0.2)=0.96
R1
OR
R2
R3
R4
F5 =(0.2)
R5
AND
F1
if
R1=R2=R3=R4=R5=0.8
Rs = 0.8*{1-(0.04)*(0.04)}=0.79872
FAND=(0.04)*(0.04)
=0.0016
AND
F5
F L=(0.2)*(0.2)
=0.04
FOR=0.2 +0.0016
-(0.2)*(0.0016)
= 0.20128
AND
F2 F3
FR=(0.2)*(0.2)
=0.04
F4
if F1=F2=F3=F4=F5=0.2
Fs = 0.20128
Fault Tree Analysis

(A little bit of simulation information for orientation)
Read this narrative (double click inside this box and cursor down, or pull down the lower edge of this
block). Then slide this sheet to one side, I.e., click on the border, hold down the left mouse key, and
drag to one side to uncover the spread sheet.
Do not delete this sheet, you may need some clues later when you build your own models!
This model shows a small series/parallel block diagram system with elements R1, R2, R3, R4, and R5
(which you can change for your evaluation). The same system is shown in fault tree logic as F1, F2, F3,
F4, and F5.
Reliability block diagrams are success oriented.
For a series system:
If Ra=0.9 and Rb=0.8 are reliability values in series, then the system reliability is Ra*Rb =
0.8*0.9 = 0.72 or a 72% chance for success.
For a parallel system:
If Ra=0.9 and Rb=0.8 are reliability values in parallel, then the system reliability is 1-(1-Ra) * (1Rb) = 1 - (1-0.8) * (1-0.9) = 0.98 or a 98% chance for success.
Fault tree diagrams are failure oriented (as described by the lack of reliability).
For things in series described by an OR gate:
If URa=0.1 and URb=0.2 are unreliabilities in series, the fault tree calculation is URa+URb(Ura*Urb) = 0.1+0.2-0.1*0.2 = 0.18 or a 18% chance for failure which is the complement of the
Page 31
Plant Managers Production Model
Plant Manager's Production Model Based On The Business Plan Goals And Last Years Production
Simulation Objective: From last years Weibull model of production and this years business plan, what are the odds the Plant Manger will meet the
business plan goal and thus get his bonus.
Hint: Use Last Year's Daily Plan Output and WinSMITH Weibull TM software to find a Weibull model of daily plant output
Beta
12
Model Of Daily Plant Output From WeibullSMITH

Eta
287,050
<--Use history to make this model for simulation
Annual Business Plan Forecast

Change as required--> Yearly Output
100,000,000
Monthly Output
8,333,333
Seven Day Output
1,923,077
Daily Output
273,973
Number of iterations (same as # of years operation)-->
Production vs Goal
From Iterations
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
<--Chance the plant manger makes his bonus?

(Based on 365 random draws of daily production
each iteration.)
Err:522
Err:522
Barringer's Business Law: If the Plant Manager can't meet his goals, then you've got to make a change to get a change or else everyone
suffers!!
Page 32
Fix Failures On Overtime
Fix Failures On Overtime?

Simulation Objective: Will surviving redundant equipment fail before the first failure is restored and will the use of overtime to reduce the risk of out of service conditons
for both units ?
# Iterations
No Overtime
With Overtime
Change as required
A
Usual Repair Costs$=

Extra Overtime Cost$=
Normal Repair Time=
Time Saved By Overtime=
Loss If Both Fail $=
Usual Repair Costs$=

Extra Overtime Cost$=
Normal Repair Time=
Time Saved By Overtime=
1.2
16000
$2,000.00
$500.00
8
2
$500,000.00
Err:522
System Outage Due To A=
System Outage Due To B=
Overall System Results=
Maintenance Costs=
Total System Results=
Unreliability
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Costs wo/OT
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Unreliability
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Costs With OT
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
1.2
500
$2,000.00
$500.00
8
1
Risks cost (unreliability * sytem outage cost)=

Risks cost with Over Time (unreliability * sytem outage cost)=
Did the extra cost of overtime save money in the long run?
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Page 33
Competing Failure Mode Model
Competing Failure Mode Model

Simulation Objective: Show how a competing failure modes alters system failure times.
Competeting Failure Modes Model Of Components:

Component
Beta
Eta
1a
1.8
18000
Weibull Time To
Simulated Failure
19,866
1b
1
50000
141,072
Pacing Failure Times
0.4
100000
3
3
1d
6
70000
3.7
14000
2.5
17000
64,005
4
0.7
25000
24,082
6,897
25,814
24,082
6,897
25,814
Change As Required
Competing Failure Modes For
Component #1
1a
1b
Record Of Failures (suspensions excluded):

1c
1d
2
3
4
234
39
8,543
186
1
8,539
2,054
13,046
12,313
Page 34
3
3
Failed
Status
Min. Fail Time
Component:
1c
System
234
39
8,543
186
1
8,539
2,054
13,046
12,313
Maint. Replace Strategy
Objective: Find the correct RCM repair strategy given the failure mode details
Err:522
Err:522
Fix When
Optimum
Maintenance Strategy Used-->
Broken
Replacement
Best Strategy
Best Strategy
Beta (0.5 < < 10)-->
Eta-->
1.1
100
Simulated Time To Failure-->
51
<--Beta tells about failure mode

<--Eta tells about length of life
$'s For Planned Replacement--> $ 1,000.00

$'s For Unplanned Replacement--> $20,000.00
~Optimum replacement costs, $/hr--> $ 201.488
62
Optimum replacement interval or 2*eta as limit-->
<--Click to expand details.
Costs/(Hour Of Life In Service)-->
Err:522
% Cost reduction-->
Err:522
% Of Time Strategy Is Correct-->
Err:522
Number Of Iterations-->
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Page 35

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Process Diagram Simulation

Generate Random Numbers

Air Compressor Life & Costs

Simple Series Failure Model

Fault Tree Analysis

Competing Series Failure Model

Age Of Part At Time Zero

Fix Failuers On Overtime?

Plant Manager's Production Model

Maintenance Replacement Strategy

Why Use Monte Carlo Simulations

Why Use Monte Carlo Simulations

Weibull Statistical Values For Non-symmetrical distributions

<-- = Eta characteristic values

<-- = Weibull standard deviation

<-- = Weibull mean

Press the F9 key to update calculations

failure free interval when t0>0)

ted to have failed)

will occur (or B-life in engineering terminology)

Generate Random Numbers

Random Numbers Are Used To

Two Age To Failures

Three Age To Failures

Four Age To Failures

Press the F9 key to update calculations

Six Age To Failures

Five Age To Failures

Simple Failure Model

Simple Failure Model

<--System Failure Time

Record Of Failures (negative values are suspensions):

Air Compressor Model