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Abstract
The paper estimates the technical risk associated with the operation of power machines. The sources of risk are presented with possible
scenarios of failures. The risk involving the operation of steam turbine valves is discussed in more detail. The point estimation technique for
reliability analysis and the finite element analysis of thermal stresses are applied. Calculations of the probability of failure are made for
random loads and random properties of materials. On the basis of the real data, mean values of stresses and strains under transient operating
conditions were calculated, as well as the level of stresses under creep conditions. The calculated values were used for estimation of the
probability of valve failure and the value of technical risk.
q 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Turbine valve; Failure analysis; Technical risk
1. Introduction
Despite the advance of technology and the creation of
modern systems of automatic control and protection,
failures of technical systems have not been eliminated.
Although awareness of the risk of such failures has been
widely disseminated, the assessment of the level of risk and
prevention is often made intuitively on the basis of
experience. Generally, the rational analysis of risk should
be based on the theory of probability, addressing the
following issues [1,2]:
How big is the risk associated with the existence of a
given technical system?
How may this risk be reduced?
What are the costs involved in the reduction of the risk in
question?
What level of risk is acceptable?
The issue of the assessment of risk associated with
conventional power stations has received more attention in
recent years [3,4]. This results from changes in the world
market for energy, involving mergers of power corporations,
sale and purchase of power stations with often unknown
* Fax: 48-32-2372680.
E-mail address: rusin@rie5.ise.polsl.gliwice.pl (A. Rusin).
0308-0161/$ - see front matter q 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ijpvp.2004.01.004
374
procedures [2]:
3. Hazards
definition of a system,
identification of the hazards and situations threatening
the entire system as well as its particular elements,
assessment of the probability of the occurrence of
hazards,
assessment of the consequences in the case of hazards,
assessment of risk,
design of activities associated with the existing level of
risk.
X
i
REi
PEi CEi
Fig. 1. Time variations of the temperature of steam at the start-up from the
cold state.
375
sM . Rm
where
Rm ultimate strength
sM von Mises stress
in presence of flaws [8]
K
. FLr
KIC
Fig. 2. Exemplary time variations of effective stresses during start-up from
the cold state (1), warm state (2) and hot state (3).
of a turbine is equal to
Zi
m
X
Zk
k1
Zk
1
Nfk
1
2
0.116
0.07
0.028
0.016
where
2
6
FLr 1
p2 0:14Lr 0:3 0:7 exp20:65Lr
K Ms l
Lr s=sy
sapplied tensile stress,
lflaw-size dimension,
Mcoefficient dependent on the shape and location
of a defect,
sy yield stress,
KIC material toughness.
where
D1amplitude of total strains,
a; bconstants,
Nf number of cycles to failure.
Under creep conditions the dependence between time to
rupture and stress has the form
t f c sd
376
where
Table 2
Mean value and standard deviation of constants a; c; Zc
m
X
1
aD1i b
i1
1
csd
m
X
i1
a
c
Zc
395
6.38 1010
1
50
1.27 1010
0.05
P P2
10
1
2
1
1
t d
aD1i b
cs
11
pf pg # 0
12
g Zc 2 ZN;t
where Zc is the critical value of life consumption. This is a
random variable.
Using the reliability index b; the first order approximation of the probability of valve failure is
pf f2b
13
14
y2 Ymx 2 sx
s2y
1
y y2
2
y 2 y2
2
2
16
17
1 k
y
yk222
2m
18
where
mg
sg
y Ymx sx
my EY
Standard deviation s
where
Mean value m
Random variable
15
19
20
22
377
Fig. 3. Probability of valve failure in the function of operation time t and turbine start-ups number N:
Mean value m
Standard deviation s
55
1.42
66
0.0025
165
15
0.3
16
0.001
16.5
378
6. Assessment of risk
On the grounds of the calculated probability of valve
failure in different operation phases and the estimated
implications of the damage it is possible to assess the risk
involved. The variables discussed above were entered on the
risk diagram in Fig. 5. The scale of the effects was expressed
in a relative percentage scale related to the value of
replacing the power unit. The areas of negligible risk (A),
low risk (B), medium risk (C), high risk (D) and extreme
risk (E) were differentiated on the diagram. The risk
associated with the operation of the valve depends on its
operating time. For example, for the valve of a turbine
which worked for 150,000 h and was started up 400 times
during that time V1 ; the area of risk is low. Medium risk
corresponds to 250,000 h of work and 800 start-ups of the
turbine V2 :
7. Conclusions
The calculation results indicate that stop valves are not
critical components of a power unit. The technical risk
involved in the operation of the valves increases under
unsteady operation modes, especially during start-ups.
379
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