Assignment

TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT
Question 1 : Explain the concept of technology forecasting? Write a brief note on different methods
of technology forecasting.
Answer 1 : Concept of Technology Forecasting
Technology forecasting is the seeking of or anticipation of technological innovation. It is the process of
predicting the future characteristics and timing of technology. It is the chief goal of technological
forecasting to understand and anticipate the technological innovations and their characteristics.
Technological Forecasting Methods:
1. Delphi Method
This method is the intuitive type of method and is subjective in nature. Though statistical or model-based
forecasting techniques are preferred over expert opinion techniques, there are some scenarios where
intuitive methods are found to be relevant.
a. When historical data is not available - mostly in the case of new technology forecasting where expert
opinion is the only possible source of forecasting.
b. In the situations where the impact of factors which were previously considered to be relevant have lost
their strength.
c. In those instances where ethical issues are more important than technical and economical issues.
Delphi is a programmed, sequential questionnaire approach. Instead of an individual, a group of
individuals make a forecast. The group prepares a forecast with certain characteristics.
Anonymity: During the Delphi procedure, a member does not know the specific contributions of the
other members.
Application
Following are the context where Delphi method is used:
a. Identification of factors which may impact the development of technology.
b. Forecasting of statistical estimates over a specified duration on the progress of a particular technology.
c. When forecasting cannot be made using other methods.
d. To evaluate the chance of a particular event occurring under given conditions.
Advantages :
a. Delphi is a useful technique for obtaining forecasts when there is a limited or nil amounts of historical
data.
b. Delphi is a useful technique for fields which are highly interactive and interdisciplinary involving
diverse parameters such as social, economic, technical, political and managerial.
Disadvantages :
a. Forecasting is usually based on intuition and not on hard data-backed logic.
b. It produces high degree of convergence but not high degree of reliability.
2. Brainstorming Method

This is the oldest method available, and is conducted by a group of people who attempt to forecast a
specific technology by collecting and contributing all the ideas spontaneously. The objective is to
stimulate the generation of ideas on a given technology.
Application
This method has been widely applied to R&D, technological and business problem solving.
The method has been widely used for the following purpose:
a. For obtaining new ideas, processes
b. For overcoming bottlenecks
Advantages : This method is easy to organize and resources required are less.
Disadvantages : In the initial stages participants may be hesitant and hence, more time is needed for
brainstorming.
3. Trend Extrapolation
It is one of the simplest and widely used methods that uses historical data to determine the rate of
progress of technology in the past and extends it into the future.
It implies that the factors which affected the past trends would continue to impact in the same known
manner. Based on rate of progress, there are two types of extrapolation:
Linear Extrapolation: It used where a linear growth function is predicted. The trend is explained using
the linear equation:
yi = A xi + B ,where yi is the value of the dependent variable in the ith time period and xi is the value of
the independent variable in the ith time period, A and B are estimated by the method of sum of squares
and minimizing them from the projected extrapolation.
Exponential method: Empirical studies concluded that many technologies grow exponentially without
sound theoretical basis. When exact behavior of technology is not known, the forecaster may be justified
empirically to assume that the technology would grow exponentially.
The exponential growth curve could be assumed to be as follows:
Yi = ABXi
Where Yi is the value of the variable to be estimated, Xi is the impact variable and A, B are constants to
be estimated. When trend does not follow either a linear or exponential pattern, a polynomial trend
equation may be applied to identify the trend.
Application: Extrapolation of past data can be used for predicting future trends and, thus, this method
finds application in predicting future performance characteristics of a technology, and production level of
an item.
Advantages: This method is learnable, teachable, reviewable and reproducible. It is simple to use and
quick to interpret.
Disadvantages: It cannot be used until sufficient historical data is available.

4. Technology Monitoring
With ever changing technology, uncertainty also increases; to reduce the uncertainty there has to be a
system for monitoring the signals of technological change. Technology monitoring is one of the
techniques used for monitoring breakthroughs through precursor events.
Advantages :
The biggest advantage is that it can be used as effective early warning system on threats to existing
products/ process/ services.
Disadvantages :
This method requires minimum two years of collection of data for monitoring which is possible in the
case of large corporations.
5. Growth Curves
The S-curve is used to represent the evolution of technology. It shows that initially the growth is slow, and
then the growth rate increases and finally levels off into the natural limits. In reality no technology
continues to grow exponentially for an indefinite period of time and this leads to the curve flattening out
in a later stage. There are basically two types of S-curve formulations, which can be adopted by
forecaster.
Pearl-Reed Curve
The Pearl-Reed Curve equation given by American biologist Raymond Pearl can be used for the growth
of performance of technology with reference to functional capability. The Pearl-Reed curve is used to
track individual technologies.
Gompertz curve
This curve was propounded by a mathematician named Benjamin Gompertz who used it for technological
forecasting. This growth curve can be used for forecasting how and when a given technical approach will
reach its upper limit.
6. Relevance Tree
In 1957, C.W. Churchman et al described the concept of relevance tree. It is an organized normative
approach starting with a particular objective and used for forecasting as well as planning. In this method,
the objective is divided into a set of major activities. The basic structure looks like an organizational chart
and presents information in a hierarchical structure. The hierarchy begins with the objectives, which are
further broken down into activities and further into tasks. The principle behind using the relevance tree is
to evaluate systematically all the related technologies that would lead to the success of the intended
objective. From the forecasting perspective, the branches represent alternatives that are traced to a
number of points, which represent deficiencies in the existing technology. Relevance tree provides a
framework for identifying the deficiencies that need to be overcome. Relevance tree techniques serve as a
tool both for the forecasting and the planning processes.
7. Morphological Analysis
Fritz Zwicky developed this method which is a normative technique, provides a framework for exploring
all possible solutions to a particular problem. In this analysis the whole problem is divided into parts
which could be treated independently with several solutions to each part. It is a systematic study of the

current and future scenarios of a particular problem and possible gaps are identified. Further the
morphological analysis provides a framework to explore other alternatives to fill these gaps. From the
forecasting perspective, the method enables creation of a list of all the possible outcomes of a technology
in order to determine different categories of its applications. For example, even though cardboard was
developed as a material for packaging, a morphological analysis would assess its performance and utility
in other applications - given its strength, density, and other properties, the analysis considers the
possibility of using it for sound insulation, heat insulation, and other applications.

8. Mission Flow Diagram

Harold Linstone originally conceived the mission flow diagrams and it used as a means of analysing
military missions. Mission flow diagrams works by mapping all the alternative routes or sequences by
which a given task can be accomplished. Here, the analyst needs to identify significant steps on each
route and also determine the challenges/costs associated with each route. In forecasting the performance
requirements can then be derived for each associated technology and the same can be used as normative
forecasts.

Question 2 : What is technology acquisition? Explain the two methods of technology acquisition.
Answer 2 : Technology acquisition is the process by which a company acquires the right to use and
utilize a technology for the purpose of improving or renewing processes, products or services. It does not
include retailed or mass market off-the-shelf software which is generally governed by non-negotiable
shrink wrapped licenses.
Technology acquisition is a huge area and the productivity improvement budget targets a specific part of
the technology acquisition process. Companies applying for funding for technology acquisition are
required to have carried out their due diligence and identified the technology they wish to acquire. The
funding company will also know the details of the license agreement between the two companies and
details of the costs involved as part of the application.
There are two methods of technology acquisition:
1. Internal technology acquisition is controlled by the organization itself. It requires the existence of a
technological facility in the organization. This facility could vary from one expert that understands the
technological application effectively to manage a project conducted by an outside research and
development (R&D) team, to a full-fledged R&D department.
2. External technology acquisition is the process of procuring technology developed by others for use in
the organization. External technology acquisition generally has the benefit of decreased cost and time to
carry out, and fewer risks. Nevertheless, almost all technologies available from external sources were
originally developed for various other applications. Thus, outside acquisition normally must comprise an
aspect of adaption to the acquiring organizations application. The acquiring organization must understand
that this adds extra costs, time, and risks to the project.

External acquisition can take the form of licensing, buying equipment with embedded technology,
investment in a collaboration which has a technology development function, or even the acquisition of an
organization that has the required technology.
The following table summarizes the information provided above and provides some general guidelines to
help guide initial approach to acquisition.
Considerations

Internal
Technology
Acquisition

Combination of
Internal and
External

External
Technology
Acquisition

Companys
Technological
Growth
Exclusivity/
Competitive
Advantage

Highest potential

Medium potential

Lowest potential

Highest potential
for unique
product or
process

May maintain
exclusively, may
have to share with
partners

Generally dont
have a unique
product or
process, may
negotiate for a
specific market.

Companys Capability

May be relatively strong

technically

Technical strength
is required, but it
can be weaker

Time to Market

Longest

Risk of Failure

Technically
highest with
lowest
acceptance
Highest cost, high
capability,
development
value

Can be reduced
due to added
information
Medium risk

Technical
strength is an
asset, but not
essential
Should be
shortest

Cost and
Affordability

Usually medium
costs

Technically
lowest with
highest
acceptance
Should be lowest,
may include
hidden costs.

Question 3 : List and describe the different characteristics of the various stages in life cycle of

technology.
Answer 3 : Technology Life Cycle
Technology and its implications are an ongoing process. There are typically four stages of evolution in the
life cycle of a technology.
The figure below depicts the different characteristics of these stages:
Technology functional
capabilities
Rate of process innovations

12

Rate of product
innovations
5

Technology Life Cycle

1. Cutting-edge: This stage represents the origin of a fresh product, material or process resulting from
R&D activities. In R&D laboratories, new ideas are generated depending on gaining needs and
knowledge factors. Depending on the resource allocation and also the change element, the time taken in
the innovation stage as well as in the subsequent stages varies widely.
2. State-of-the-Art: In this stage, cutting-edge technology is employed to fulfill a particular customer
need. It is important to note that the customer base for this kind of latest technology is small, but
discerning. Therefore, it is best to let only technical specialists handle the marketing of this kind of
technology. Since this is only the nascent stage, a lot of functions are still in their initial phases. However,
core functions like engineering, manufacturing; finance and administration are formally operational.
Important, but non-core functions are offered outsourced to consultants or agencies. Since there is still the
stamp of innovation on the product, there is a great deal of product diversity. Production processes are
still far from being standardized, so, it is easier for state-of-the- art technology to respond to the wideranging market needs, even though in an ineffective and inefficient manner.
3. Advanced: Once the technological attributes are standardized, the technology undergoes fast-paced
market expansion. But gradually, the less discerning customer also joins the broadening customer base.
This customer wants the advantages of the newest technology but does not want to develop his own
technical expertise to appreciate the technology. At this stage, professional marketing of the technology
becomes a necessity, since the exclusivity of one or few producers is negated and many players jump into
the fray. This situation brings in a complete market revamp, customer segmentation and more
standardization. If a company manages to survive this upheaval, it indicates the companys solidity and
efficiency. It is during this stage only that the company may automate some parts of its process, specify
roles based on expertise, or conversely, go through organizational restructuring. Many companies also
face financial and administrative crises at this time.

4. Mainstream/Mature: Once the technology comes to this stage, there is little scope left for more
product innovations and most firms concentrate only on improving existing product technology. As a
result, product differentiation becomes almost impossible. Now companies start working on strategies to
make production processes more economical and efficient. This is done usually through outsourcing to
third world nations. Once this area has been exhausted as well and does not offer an edge over
competition, the game becomes centered on quality of customer service. For this stage, professionally
qualified and experienced managers are better than entrepreneurs with no little capital backing or
experience. By this time, the organization has gone beyond non-standard, play-by-ear method of
operation and requires considerably standardized structures, communications and systems.
5. Decline: In this stage, there is little or no scope for improving the technology any further. Moreover,
even the smallest improvement costs a lot. Eventually the technology is replaced by a new generation
technology. However, the new technology will not wipe out the older technology immediately and
abruptly. Also, the stages of the TLC are not so distinctly visible either and seem to happen seamlessly
and gradually rather than with abrupt distinctions.

Question 4 : Briefly explain any four qualitative technology transfer models.

Answer 4 : Some of the qualitative models are as follows:
1.The Bar-Zakay model: This model is based on a project management approach, wherein the process of
technology transfer is divided into four stages:
a. Search
b. Adapt
c. Implement
d. Maintain
This model specifies the activities to be carried out and also highlights the importance of both transferor
and transferee for undertaking technological forecasting, long-range planning, and gathering of projectrelated intelligence.
In this model, the term donor is used, which refers to the transferor and gives an impression that the
owner of technology is giving away a valuable asset out of selfless reasons. A disadvantage of the BarZakay model is that the activities, terms, and facts expressed in this model had reversed the position of
the consumers of technology who trusted the programme and supported the purchase of technology to a
greater extent during the period 1960 to 1970. During that period the government controls were used to
identify the speed, direction, and value of technology flows.
2. The Behrman and Wallender Model: Behrman and Wallender introduced a process for international
technology transfer which is more applicable to multinational corporations. They divided the process into
seven stages:
(a) Develop scheme and plan to make decisions regarding location
(b) Decide the product design technologies to be transferred
(c) Specify details of the plant to be designed for production
(d) Construct the plant and start-up production

(e)Adapt the process and product and strengthen the production schemes to suit basic prerequisites
(f) Improve the product technology transferred by means of local skills
(g) Provide external support to strengthen the interdependence between the transferor and transferee.
The only disadvantage of this model is that, during the first three stages, the transferor develops the
technology transfer project where transferee is not involved much, thereby indicating dependency. On the
other hand, the transferee is involved in the fifth and sixth stages, which helps in understanding and
improving product and process technologies. This emphasizes that the technology transfer does not end
with the start up of production and unless there is a mechanism to foster sustainability, the project is
considered a failure.
3. The Schlie, Radnor, and Wad Model: This is a simple, universal model for technology transfer
process. This model describes seven elements which ensure the planning, and ultimately successful
implementation of any technology transfer project. These seven elements include:
(a) The transferor
(b) The transferee
(c) The technology to be transferred
(d) The transfer mechanism
(e) The environment in which the transferor is working
(f) The environment in which the transferee is working
(g) The larger environment that surrounds both the transferor and the transferee
The seven elements of this model are suitable even in todays business environment. The way they
establish themselves can change with respect to time. The only disadvantage of this model is that it does
not offer any guidelines to a transferee on what they should do.
4.The Chantramonklasri Model: This model has five phases:
(a) Carry out a study on pre-investment and feasibility.
(b) Develop engineering specifications and design based on the feasibility study.
(c) Initiate the production of principal goods based on the developed engineering specifications and
designs.
(d) Commission start-up and specify the skill set required for the workforce.
(e) Initiate commercial production.
This model may be valid in technologically developed countries, such as, India and China, but not in
other smaller developing countries.

Question 5 :
a. Explain the different steps of Environmental impact analysis (EIA) process.
b. What are the various issues in the preparation of EIA Report?
Answer 5 : Environmental Impact Analysis (EIA) Process
Environmental impact analysis or assessment is an activity to identify, predict, interpret, and supply
information about the impact of an industrial or technology related activity on human health and wellbeing. The following are the EIA process steps:

1. Examination of environmental resources: This is the first step where fast examination of the basic
environmental resources land, air, and water is done at a micro level at the site of the project. Scanning
is performed to evaluate the fragility and the degree of exploitation of the resource base.
2. Separation of project zone: The second step is to separate the project zone from the rest of the
surroundings.
3. Description of environmental attributes: The third step is to identify, assess, and define all the
environmental attributes.
4. Ranking of environmental resources: The fourth step is to rank environmental resources as per their
fragility, significance and quality.
5. Review: The fifth step is to carry out review on every aspect of effects of the proposed project on the
identified individual environmental resources available in the project zone.
6. Categorization: The sixth step is to categorize the effects in a systematic order.
7. Remedial plans: The seventh step is to prepare remedial plans for diminishing negative effects.
Issues in the Preparation of EIA Report
a. Determine the environmental impact: This is the critical aspect; the environmental impact and the
changes in the environmental attributes should be clearly distinguished. The determination of
environmental impact includes the impact on environmental attributes that have to be found out. The
impact on attributes has to be measured, and to show the total impact on the environment the impacts on
the attributes should be aggregated.
b.Identify the impact: There is an infinite number of attributes to be evaluated. This is because any
property of the environment is considered to be an attribute. Hence, the number should be minimized to
get a finite manageable number. Therefore, redundant, duplicative, tough to measure, and unclear
attributes can be discarded. This means that a few attributes which are tough to measure can still be
examined.
c.Properties of the base: The type of the impact is determined using the conditions of the environment
prior to the project. Assessing the properties of the base is an important factor.
d.Character of attributes: The impacts are the effects on the actual distinct attributes of the
environment. Nature does not respect humans discrete categories. The actual impact might be of
changing severity on a range of interrelated attributes.
e. Amount of impact: All the impacts should be converted into measurable units. But it is quite difficult
to define impacts in common units.
f. Aggregation issue: The problem of how to aggregate all impacts arises after measuring the project
impacts on different individual attributes. This includes depicting the different impact measures in
common units, which is tricky.
g. Indirect impacts: These are secondary impacts on environment. They should be considered
specifically in relation to the infrastructural aspects that prompt secondary effects. The secondary effects
are in the form of social and economic activity. This induced growth shows changes in the natural
conditions. Likewise, there can also be important secondary impacts in the biophysical environment.
h. Accumulating impacts: Accumulation means the collective impact of similar activities distributed in
an environment, such as constructing beach resorts, hotels, other resorts, mines, and others. One activity
can produce a small effect on the environment. Yet, a set of similar activities can produce a large
cumulative effect on particular aspects of the environment. The question of how to deal with these
cumulative effects rises. Thus, it is advised to perform an EIA on huge programs instead of performing on

a series of small actions. EIA for a specific geographical area can be prepared where a set of similar
activities are present.
i. Reporting results: The result should be shown in an easy and clear way to understand the total impacts
of an activity from a short review. It is preferred to show the impacts on a summary sheet in matrix form.

Question 6 : Briefly explain any four new technologies available in the present market. What are
the different aspects must be considered while implementing a new technology.
Answer 6 : A variety of technologies have emerged owing to the technological convergence of diverse
systems that have similar objectives.
(i) Cloud Computing
Cloud computing is gaining much focus among organizations of all sizes. There is a major shift in the
way companies obtain software and computing capacity, as more companies tap into web-based
applications. Cloud application services or Software as a Service (SaaS) deliver software as a service
over the Internet, which entails the company to publish or put up its software on the Internet and allow
individuals and companies to rent it through a subscription model.
Impact of cloud computing on businesses:
1. It consists of vendors providing the application and an environment or platform to host the application
over the internet and the client can avail the facility by logging on to the Internet.
2. Cloud application services or Software as a Service (SaaS) deliver software as a service over the
Internet, which eliminates the requirement to install and run the application on the customers computers
band simplify maintenance and support.
3. Cloud platform services or Platform as a Service (PaaS) deliver a computing platform and/or solution
stack as a service, often consuming cloud infrastructure and sustaining cloud applications.
4. Cloud infrastructure services or Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) deliver computer infrastructure,
typically a platform virtualization environment, as service.
(ii) RFID
RFID stands for Radio Frequency Identification and is a type of auto ID technology that uses radio waves
to identify an object or person. It is used to identify, monitor and manage individual objects as they move
between physical locations. This technology is advancing forward in antenna technology, microfabrication and radio spread spectrum. RFID is the generic name for technologies that use radio waves for
automatic item identification.
RFID as a technology has received a lot of attention by researchers, academicians and major retailers like
Metro, Tesco and Wal-Mart. RFID has been successfully applied to supply chain management,
manufacturing and logistics but there is still a lot of scope and potential for applying it even more widely
in real world environments.
(iii) Business Analytics
Data analysis, reporting and query tools can help business users to dig through a mine of data to
synthesize valuable information from itthese tools collectively fall into a category called business
analytics.
The business analytics software market hit $33.9 billion in 2012, up 8.2 percent from 2011, according to
IDC. Oracle has the leading market share, but there are a large number of other software players in the
business intelligence market.

IDCs business intelligence and analytics is sprawling. IDC is tracking 12 analytics markets and five of
them have a revenue of more than $1 billion globally.
Among the key buckets are:
End-user query, reporting, and analysis (standalone and embedded);
Data warehouse management;
Financial performance and strategy management applications;
CRM analytics applications;
Data warehouse generation.
The impact of business analytics ranges across all the verticals of the industry from banking,
communication, aerospace, retail and oil and gas industry.
(iv) 4G Technology
The acronym for 4G is Fourth Generation Communication Systems. It is a new technology in wireless
communication. The users are provided with a comprehensive IP solution like data, voice and streamlined
multidata. Also, if we measure the data rates, they are superior to previous generations. The goals of 4G
are:
1. To provide an IP-based integrated system and provide premium quality and high security
2. To provide all services at a reasonable cost
3. To provide a high-quality, smooth video transmission.
Proper implementation is a very crucial task that requires proper planning. It is necessary to consider
certain aspects before implementation. These considerations are as follows:
Preliminary considerations: This is the foremost step where a description of the complete business
process and/or academic practice, consumer services, communication with suppliers is required for
implementation.
Proper understanding of traditions and principles are essential.
The information should be provided to all concerned parties.
Review of every business process should be performed.
The difficulty and flexibility of the system should be determined.
The training and development to be conducted for the internal staff should be planned in advance.
The users must be trained to use the system, to identify faults and correct them freely.
Planning: A detailed plan with efficient management is important for success, without fear for cost,
extended time, or losing key persons.
Considerations for implementation
Some considerations for implementation of technology are as follows:
Be aggressive: To be aggressive to set up a strong competitive edge is important as it enhances
production and system performance.
Be cautious: If the new chosen technology provides revenue to your business, then it is necessary to be
careful while making any major modifications in the new technology.
Be prompt: It is important for you to be prompt to implement the small changes to your chosen
technology and to supervise their impact.
Do not be hasty: If major changes may affect your business, it is vital to make the implementation
changes slowly.
Be safe: Proper security at the time of design and development is needed.
It is better to employ a security expert who will take care of the privacy of the organization.

It is the responsibility of the management to be answerable for, and support the new system. If the
management supports a new technology, the employees will be liable to assist with the functioning. The
success and survival of the organization, along with its potential security, depends on the adapted new
procedure.