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AWayForwardinU.S.IndiaDefenseCooperation

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AWayForwardinU.S.IndiaDefense
Cooperation
AnInterviewwithStephenP.CohenandSunilDasgupta
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AWayForwardinU.S.IndiaDefense
Cooperation
BySoniaLuthra
July19,2011

InaninterviewwithNBR,Dr.StephenP.CohenandProfessorSunilDasguptaarguethatIndiarejectedoffers
fromU.S.companiesfortherecentfighterjetbidduetoworriesoversupplyreliability.Theyalsomaintainthat
tomovedefensecooperationforward,theUnitedStatesandIndiashouldconsidercodevelopingweapons
technologyinlightofU.S.legislativerestrictionsontechnologytransfer.
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Dr.Cohen,aNationalAsiaResearchAssociateandSeniorFellowattheBrookingsInstitution,andProfessor
Dasgupta,PoliticalScienceProgramDirectorattheUniversityofMaryland,BaltimoreCounty,arecoauthors
ofthebookArmingwithoutAiming:IndiasMilitaryModernization.

CouldyouexplainthenatureofU.S.Indiarelationsandtheroleofdefensecooperation?Howdoyou
envisionthefutureoftherelationship?
TheU.S.Indiarelationshipisacompositeofseveralimportantinterests:(1)vastsocialandculturalties,
symbolizedbythelargeIndianAmericancommunity,(2)aneweconomicinterdependence,(3)thedevelopment
ofstrategiccommonality,withbothhedgingagainstarisingChinaandfearfulofadeclining,butnucleararmed,
Pakistan,and(4)finally,thegrowthinmilitaryanddefenseties.
Notallfourelementsoftherelationshiphavedevelopedatthesamepace.Withtheexceptionsofpostnuclear
testengagementandtheciviliannucleardeal,theunofficialU.S.Indiarelationship,includingpeopletopeople
andeconomicties,hasoutpacedofficialtiesbetweenthetwocountries.U.S.Indiastrategicconvergencewill
likelycomeinthelongterm,asthereareseriousshorttermdifferencesonPakistan,China,climatechange,
energysecurity,globalgovernance,andeconomicpolicy.
Defensecooperationisimportantbecauseitcanbridgelongandshorttermdifferences.Indeed,thenucleardeal
boughtgreaterfreedomforWashingtononitsPakistanpolicyandcouldservethisroleagainastheUnited
Statestriestoextricateitselffromtheregion.Forthistohappen,Washingtonmustholdoutthelargecarrotof
technologyandweaponstransfers,whicharepoliticallyproblematicformanyreasons,specificallythe
restrictivedomesticlegislationondefensehardware.OnesolutionliesintheUnitedStatescodeveloping
technologywithIndia,asitdoeswithIsrael.Sincenewtechnologyisnotyetdeveloped,itcannotbesubjected
torestrictiveU.S.laws.OntheIndianside,anumberofthingshavetohappen,includingrationalizingtheR&D
establishment.

WhatdorecentIndianmilitaryprocurementstellusaboutthecountrysdefenseoutlookandstrategic
aims?
MostofIndiaspurchasesarereplacementsforobsoleteorbrokenequipment.However,afewacquisitionsof
Americanequipmentarenotable.Theacquisitionofalargetroopcarrier,theINSJalashwa,formerlyaU.S.
Marineassaultvessel,canproviderapidsealiftcapacityforIndianforces,presumablyallowingforintervention
elsewhereinSouthAsiaortheIndianOceanregion.ThelargeBoeingairliftersreplaceobsoleteSovietaircraft
andhavegreatercapabilities.
ItremainstobeseenwhetherIndiawilluseitsnewassetstodevelopatruepowerprojectioncapacity.Unless
Indiacanstartbuildingaircraftcarriersonitsown,itsrecentpurchaseofacarrierandcarrierbornejetsfrom
Russiawillbelargelysymbolic.Theplannedacquisitionofanuclearsubmarinewithnucleartippedmissiles
raisesweightyquestionsaboutAsiannuclearstability,butthispurchasewillnotcometofruitionformany
years.
Indiaishedgingallaround.FromNewDelhisperspective,inmattersofdefenseWashingtonisthebestpossible
partner,butWashingtonisperceivedasbeingunwillingtofulfilltherole.IndiacontinuestobuyRussian
equipmentduetopricesandamisplacedsenseofautonomy.TherecouldbeamajorIndoRussianrupturevery
soon,however,sinceIndianshipswererecentlyturnedawayfromaplannedjointexerciseaftershowingupin
Vladivostok.Indiawillbuywhatitreallyneeds,suchasfighterjets,frombothEuropeansandRussians,whoare
lesslikelythantheUnitedStatestoattachconditionstosuchpurchases.Ontheotherhand,itwillcontinueto
buyfromtheUnitedStatesitemsunrelatedtoimmediatethreats,suchaspowerprojectionequipment,though
NewDelhihasnoimmediateplanstoconductexpeditionarywarfare.NowthatIndiahasthemoneytobuyand
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build,itmustdecideonitsprioritiesandwithwhomtopartner.Inthis,theUnitedStatesremainsacontender,
butnottheobviousorautomaticfirstchoice.

RecentlyIndiarejectedoffersfromtwoU.S.firmstocompeteforamediummultirolecombataircraft
(MMRCA)contractworthover$10billion.ThiswasfollowedbytheresignationofU.S.Ambassadorto
IndiaTimothyRoemer,whichsomethoughtwasrelatedtothebidding.IsIndiasdownselectof
AmericanfirmsinthefighterjetcompetitionandthereactioninU.S.politicalanddiplomaticcircles
evidenceofapotentialdistanceinrelations?
AmbassadorTimothyRoemersdeparturefromNewDelhiwasunrelatedtotheMMRCAdecision.The
MMRCAdecisionissaidtohavebeenmadeontechnicalgrounds,thoughwealsoknowthattechnical
superioritycanmaskothermotivations.TheIndiandefenseestablishmentisuneasyaboutusinganAmerican
airplaneonmissionspotentiallyinvolvingcombatwithPakistan,aformalU.S.ally.TheremayalsobeU.S.
lawslimitingtheplanesfromcarryingnuclearweapons.
Intheend,webelieve,thedecisionwasmostlypolitical,asIndiaintendedtopreservesupplyreliability.The
UnitedStatescontinuestohaveapoorreputationasamilitarysupplier.ThecurrentproblemsIndiaishaving
withtheNuclearSuppliersGrouphavebeenattributedtoU.S.ambivalenceabouttheciviliannucleardeal.The
decisionalsosignaledtoWashingtonthatNewDelhicannotbetakenforgranted,astheObamaadministration
haslargelydone.IndiawouldhavegiventheordertoaU.S.firmifithadbeenassuredthattheUnitedStates
wouldbackIndiapoliticallythereafter.Sincethisguaranteewasnotavailable,andawardingaU.S.firmthe
contractwouldincreaseWashingtonsabilitytoinfluenceNewDelhi,theUnitedStateswasanotagoodchoice
politicallyasasupplier.

WhathasbeentheroleofIndiascivilianleadershipintheprocessofmilitaryprocurementand
modernization?
TheIndianstatehasfailedtodevelopatimely,transparent,andlegitimatemilitaryprocurementsystem.Onthe
onehand,boththeBharatiyaJanataParty(BJP)andCongressPartyareveryfearfulofthespecterofscandal,
butontheotherhandcorruptioncontinuestoberifeastheTehelkastingoperationsandotherscandalshave
shown.Theresultisthattheacquisitionprocesshasbecomehighlybureaucratized,tothedetrimentofforce
capabilityandreadiness.Indiaspoliticalsystemobsessesoverhighprofileitemsandneglectstheincreasing
competencyinthearmedforcesanddefenseproductionfacilities.Theintroductionofprivatecompaniesintothe
processmayshakethingsup,althoughthisiswidelyopposedforfearofcorruption,thegovernmentsinability
toenforcecontractsagainstprivateparties,andsecrecy.WeagreewiththelateK.Subrahmanyam,Indiasmost
eminentdefensespecialist,aboutthearchaicandcumbersomewayinwhichIndiaarmsitself.

Asyounoteabove,Indiahasrecentlypurchasedsignificantquantitiesofmilitaryequipmentfromthe
UnitedStates,withmoredealspotentiallyinthepipeline.WhatdoestheUnitedStatesstandtogainfrom
thesesales?
TheUnitedStatesshouldseeIndiaasalongtermstrategicinvestmentandperhapsapartner.Indiacouldassume
moreresponsibilityforstabilizingchaoticareasoftheworld.
UnliketheMMRCA,recentsalesdonotrepresentdramaticnewvalue.Theyarestepsintherightdirection,but
NewDelhiseesthemprimarilyasbusinessdealsthatarepaidforandthattheUnitedStatessupplies,nostrings
attached.TheMMRCAwasmuchmoredramaticbecauseitwouldhaveputWashingtonatthecoreofIndias
militarypowerjustastheSovietsupplyoftheMiG21openedthemarketforMoscow.
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Recently,SenatorsJohnCornynandJoeLiebermanintroducedcommitteeamendmentsthatrequirethe
SecretaryofDefensetoexaminethepossibilityofsellingIndiaF35fighters.However,wethinkIndiais
unlikelytobuyanotherhighprofilefighterjetunlessthecurrentstrategicbalanceintheregionorthecurrent
trajectoryoftheU.S.Indiatieswastochangedramatically.
WethinkU.S.Indiarelationswillgainthemostfromcodevelopingadvancedweaponssystemsandkey
subassemblies.Aircraftengineshavebeenmentionedinthiscontextandthetwocountriesalreadyhaveinplace
agreementstoworktogetheronspacetechnologies.Weneedtothinkharderaboutwhatspecificprojectsto
pursuejointlywithIndiaandhowtofundandsustaintheseprojects.Thisiswherethedefenserelationshipwill
bringstrategicvaluetobothsides.

CanyoudescribetheimpactofU.S.technologytransferrestrictionsonpotentialdefensecooperation?
U.S.legislationtraditionallyseesIndiaasatechnologyriskandaproblemstate.OntheIndianside,thereare
bloatedexpectations.TheIndianattitudetendstobe,Wehavebeenneglected,andweareimportanttherefore,
wehaveaclaimtoyourtechnologytomakeupforpastneglect.AmericansseeIndiaasariskystatethat
overemphasizestechnologyasaroutetomilitarymodernization.ThisisseeninthecaseofIndiasnuclear
weapons,whichserveasapowerfuldeterrentbutarenosubstituteforamodernconventionalmilitary.
Somewherebetweentheseattitudesthereisanopportunityforarealistic,hardheadedexchangeoftechnology.
Therelationshipisshortofanalliance,butmorethanafriendship.
Indiaclearlyseestherestrictionsasahurdle,andtherestrictionsplaybothasubstantiveandasymbolicrole.
Substantively,someitemsaredeniedtoIndia,butsymbolicallythismeansthattheUnitedStatesstilldoesnot
seeIndiaasaclosepartner.Thissymbolicelementisevenmoreimportantthanthesubstantiveone.TheIndian
argumentis:Iftheydonottrustus,whyshouldwetrustthem?Forthesymbolichurdletodisappear,a
weaponstechnologymostfavorednationagreementwillberequired,whichishugelyproblematichereinthe
U.S.Therefore,oursuggestionhasbeentechnologycodevelopment,whichwouldallowtheexistingtechnology
regimetoremainbutputinplacenewrulesforthedevelopmentoftechnology.

WhateffectdoesarmingIndiahaveonU.S.relationswithPakistanorChina?Conversely,towhatextent
areU.S.salestoIndiamotivatedbysecurityconcernsoverChinaandPakistan?
InthecaseofPakistan,theeffecthasbeentoconvinceIslamabadthatWashingtonhaschosenNewDelhioverit
onceandforall,makingPakistanevenmorenervousaboutitssecurity.ArmssalestoIndiahavealsogreatly
complicatedU.S.policyinAfghanistanandfedantiAmericanisminPakistan,whichnowexceedsPakistani
hostilitytowardIndia.ThepolicyofstrategicdehypenationthepursuitofrelationswithIndiaandPakistan
independentofoneanotherMdashpreventedtheUnitedStatesfromcalculatingtheimpactthatimproving
relationswithIndiawouldhaveonPakistan.
AlthoughChinanowrecognizesIndiaasamajoremergingstate,thereisnoevidencethatthiswillreduce
BeijingssupportforIndiasmajorregionalrival,Pakistan.Atthesametime,Chinadoesnotwishtoreviveits
borderconflictwithIndia.Bothcountriesthuspursueahedgingstrategytowardeachother.

WhatelseabouttheU.S.Indiadefenserelationshipwouldyoulikepolicymakerstounderstand?
CongressandU.S.policymakersneedtolookmoreseriouslyatthewayinwhichtheU.S.governmentis
organizedtodealwithIndia.TheUnitedStatesdoesnotviewSouthAsiaasanintegratedregion,which
downplaystherolethatIndiamightplayinAfghanistanandfailstoaddressIndiaslargerregionalrole,letalone
itscomplicatedrelationswithPakistan.TheU.S.Indiarelationshiphasbeentransformed,buttheU.S.
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government,mostnotablytheDepartmentofDefense,theWhiteHouse,andtheDepartmentofState,isnot
organizedtodealappropriatelywitharisingIndia.
TheUnitedStateshas31agreementsordialogueswithIndiabuthasnomechanismfortrackingprogressin
theseareasinanytransparentfashion.TheCornynletteraskingtheSecretaryofDefensetoreportonthestate
andpotentialofU.S.Indiamilitarycooperationisanimportantstepintherightdirection.WhattheUnited
Statesneedstodonextistoidentify,fund,andstaffprojectsononeortwokeytechnologieswhereactual
cooperationcanproceedatpaceratherthanengageinawidearrayofmostlytokenandineffectivedialogues.

SoniaLuthraisAssistantDirectorfortheNationalAsiaResearchProgram(NARP)andOutreach.

ThisisthesecondinaseriesofQ&AsproducedbyNBRfortheSenateIndiaCaucus.SeetheJune2011Q&A
ChartingtheFutureofU.S.IndiaRelations,aninterviewwithformerU.S.AmbassadortoIndiaThomas
Pickering.

AsiaPolicy12featuresIsIndiaReadytoforPrimeTime?,areviewessaybyDavidJ.KarlonthebooksDoes
theElephantDance?ContemporaryIndianForeignPolicybyDavidM.MaloneandArmingwithoutAiming:
India'sMilitaryModernizationbyStephenP.CohenandSunilDasgupta.

RelatedInitiative
CongressionalOutreach

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TheJohnM.ShalikashviliChairinNationalSecurityStudiesadvancesthestudyofnationalsecurityissuesand
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