Assignment 3:

4
(a) P (0.8) 0.4096

(b)

P 1 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.64

(c) Probability defeats all four in a game = 0.84 = 0.4096. Probability defeats
all four at least once = 1 (1 0.4096)3 = 0.7942

(a) The total number of permutations of 2 wide and 3 narrow bars is

The number of permutations that begin with a wide bar is

4!
1!3!

5!

= 10

2!3!

=4

Therefore, P(A) = 4/10 = 0.4

(b) A similar approach to that used in part (a) implies P(B) = 0.4
(c) Because a code contains exactly 2 wide bars, there is only 1 permutation
with wide bars in the first and second positions. Therefore, P(AB) = 1/10 =
0.1
(d) Because P(A)P(B) = 0.4(0.4) = 0.16 0.1, the events are not independent.

A: contamination is low, B: location is center

For A and B to be independent, P(AB) = P(A) P(B)
P(AB) = 514/940 = 0.546
P(A) = 582/940 = 0.619; P(B) = 626/940 = 0.665; P(A)P(B) = 0.412. Because
the probabilities are not equal, they are not independent.

Data in 2-53:

Let A denote the event that a well is failed

Let B denote the event that a well is in Gneiss
Let C denote the event that a well is in Granite
Let D denote the event that a well is in Loch raven schist
Let E denote the event that a well is in Mafic
Let F denote the event that a well is in Marble
Let G denote the event that a well is in Prettyboy schist
Let H denote the event that a well is in Other schist
Let I denote the event that a well is in Serpentine
P( B | A)

P( A | B) P( B)
P( A | B) P( B ) P ( A | C ) P(C ) P( A | D) P( D) P( A | E ) P ( E ) P ( A | F ) P ( F ) P( A | G ) P( E ) P ( A | G ) P (G ) P( A | H ) P( H )
170 1685

1685 8493

170 1685 2 28 443 3733 14 363 29 309 60 1403 46 933 3 39

1685 8493 28 8493 3733 8493 363 8493 309 8493 1403 8493 933 8493 39 8493
0.2216

(a) P(B) = P(B|G1) P(G1)+P(B|G2) P(G2)+P(B|G3) P(G3)+P(P|G4) P(G4) =

0.802
(b) P(B|A) =

()
()

= 76/114 = 0.667

(c) P(A|B) =
(|)()
P(B|G1)P(G1)+P(B|G2)P(G2)+P(B|G3)P(G3)+P(P|G4)P(G4)

0.667(0.244)
0.802

= 0.203

Crooked Gambler's Paradox

The crooked gambler has 3 fair dice and 6 loaded dice in his pocket
o
o
o
o
o
o

Crooked die has P(6) = 1/2

Fair die has P(6) = 1/6
L = {pulling a loaded die}
F = {pulling a fair die}
R1 = {getting a 6 in first roll}
R2 = {getting a 6 in second roll}

Q1: He pulls a die out. What is the probability of die being loaded?
() = 6/9 = 0.667
Q2: He rolls the die he pulled. What is the probability of getting 6?
(1) = 6/9*1/2 + 3/9*1/6 = 7/18 = 0.388
Q3: He rolls the die he pulled. If outcome is 6, what is the probability of die is being loaded?
(|1} = [(6/9*1/2) / (6/9*1/2 + 3/9*1/6)] = 6/7 = 0.857
Compare this (posterior probability) with prior probability of pulling a loaded die
() . (|1)
Posterior is bigger than prior

Q4: He rolls the die he pulled twice (also think about rolling n times). If outcome is 6 in both
rolls, what is the probability of die is being loaded? (calculate by using both methods below)

First method (two step): First calculate posterior probability of pulling a loaded die after
first roll as (|1), and then use this as new prior probability to be used in second roll
and calculate (|2).
Answer:
P(L/R1) = 6/7
P([L/R1] / R2) = (6/7*1/2) / [(6/7*1/2) + (1/7*1/6)] = 18/19 = 0.947

Second method: Calculate ( |1 2) in one step.

Answer:
( |1 2) =

( 1 2)
( 1 2) + ( 1 2)

= (6/9*1/2*1/2) / [(6/9*1/2*1/2)+(3/9*1/6*1/6)] = 18/19 = 0.947

Q5: He rolls the die he pulled. If outcome is 6, what is the probability of getting a 6 in second
roll?
(2|1) = [6/9*1/2*1/2 + 3/9*1/6*1/6] / (7/18) = 19/63 = 0.3105