ECONOMIC MODELBASES

Abstract
Ion IVAN, Adrian VIOIU, Alexandru POPESCU
1. The economic models diversity
The modern economy uses numerous analysis techniques and
methods, out of which those orientated to the quantitative side of the process
evolution are the most important.
The building of economic models has as objective the analysis of the
correlations between the factors of influence and the resultative variables
out of which result analytical forms of the identified dependences.
There is a large models diversity, each of the economic sciences
branches saving very large presentation spaces for the results obtained on
the basis of modeling.
Direct models are the result of the immediate perception of the
variables associated to the factors of influence. If it is considered a process

P to whom the resultative variable y is associated and who is determined in

his evolution by numerous factors
respectively, the variables

X 1 , X 2 ,..., X N , a

F1 , F2 ,..., FN

to which

it associates,

direct model has the form:

y = ai X i
i =1

, where

ai

is a contribution coefficient, defined over the set {1,1} .

Therefore, the evolution of the stocks of the materials

modeled through the structure:
y j = a1 X 1 j + a 2 X 2 j + a 3 X 3 j , j = 1,2,..., f

where:
yj
X1j
X2j
X3j

- the final stock of the material M ;

- the initial stock of the material M ;
- the entries through provisioning of the material M ;
- the exits for consumption of the material M .
j

M 1 , M 2 ,..., M f

is

The contribution coefficients have the levels:

a1 = 1; a2 = 1; a3 = 1 .

In bookkeeping, for the accounts

CON1 , CON 2 ,..., CON r ,

the expenditures

CD ij , i = 1,2,..., r , j = 1,2,..., Ri

are entered in the debit side and the expenditures

CCik , i = 1,2,..., r , k = 1,2,..., Oi

are entered in the credit side.

For the calculation of the debit account

estimated the expression:
Rp

Ok

j =1

o =1

S p = a j CD pj + bo CC po

CON p balance,

noted

Sp ,

it is

where the contribution coefficients have the values:

a1 = a 2 = ... = a R p = 1

b1 = b2 = ... = bOk = 1

In the classic economic analysis, for the reproduction modeling in

which two sectors are defined, the model is used:
S1 + V1 > F2
F1 + S1 + V1 > F1 + F2
S1 + V1 + S2 + V2 > F2 + S2 + V2
where:
S1 the product required in the first sector;
S2 the product required in the second sector;
V1 the surplus product from the first sector;
V2 the surplus product from the second sector;
F1 the substitution fund from the first sector;
F2 the substitution fund from the second sector.
The econometric models represent a very important models
category used especially for the study of the phenomenon and processes at
macroeconomic level. It is considered a set of resultative variables
Y1 , Y2 ,..., YM ,
X 1 , X 2 ,..., X N

and a series of

factors

F1 , F2 ,..., FN ,

to whom

the variables

are respectively associated.

Both for the resultative variables and for the exogenous variables
measures for k moments are carried out, resulting a number of MN time
series, where MN=M+N with:

M - the number of resultative variables;

N - the number of exogenous variables.
These data series are entered in table 1.
The data series registering
Table 1
Moment

X1 X 2

T1

x11 x 21

T2

x12 x 22

x1i x2i

Ti

x x
x x

x1K x2 K

XN

Y1
y11 y 21

N1

l2

TK

l1

Xl

xli

..
xlK

y12 y 22

N2

x Ni

y1i y 2i

y y
y y

M1

j2

M2

..

y MK

y jK

Yj

YM

y Mi

y1K y 2 K

...

j1

y ji

x NK

Y2

It is important to establish:
the length of the time series;
the way in which the moment T is selected;
the standardization of the data gathering periods;
the data gathering procedures
The economic analysis causes the econometric models structures
determination, resulting the dependences matrix E , presented in table 2.
1

Connections between the variables

Table 2
X X
e e
x e

X1 X 2
Y1

e11 e12

Y2

e21 e22

Yk

ek 1 ek 2

1j

where:

2N

e e

eM 1 e M 2

kj

.. e e
Mj

1N

j2

YM

M
kN

M
MN

In the Klein-Goldberger econometric model, the following structural

equations system is presented:
C t = y10 + y11 Pt + y12 Pt 1 + 11 (Wt p + Wt g ) + 1t

I t = y 20 + y 21 Pt + y 22 Pt 1 + 21 K t 1 + 2t
Wt p = y 30 + y 31 At + 31 X t + 32 X t 1 + 3t
X t = C t + I t + Gt

Pt = X t Tt Wt p

K t = K t 1 + I t

The used variables have the following meaning:

C - the consumption in the year t ;
I - the investments;
W - the private wages;
X - the demand at equilibrium;
P
- the private profits;
K - the capital mass;
G - governmental expenditures others than the wages;
T
- indirect taxes on profit and net exports;
W - governmental wages;
A
- the yearly trend;
The parameters are error variables, being called structural
distortions.
The parameters y are structural parameters (regression coefficients),
which connect the endogenous variables to the exogenous ones. In similar
way, the parameters are structural parameters which connect the
endogenous variables one to another.
t

The dependences matrix is:

C
Ct
It
Wt p

Xt
Pt
Kt

Wp

0
0
0
1
0
0

0
0
0
1
0
1

1
0
0
0
1
0

0
0
1
0
1
0

1
1
0
0
0
0

0
1
0
0
0
1

Wg

0
0
0
1
0
0

0
0
0
0
1
0

1
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
1
0
0
0

It results that if the econometric models equations coefficients are

estimated for the resultative variable Y , it passes to the estimated levels
calculation of these variables through the relation:
i

y i = a ij ij xij
j =1

, i = 1,2,..., M , equations number.

a ij

- contribution coefficients a

ij

- the coefficients of the model, estimated through the smallest

ij

{1,0,1}

squares method;
y i -

the estimated level of the resultative variable y , from the KleinGoldberger model
Linear optimization models include in their structure functions
with the form
i

{min/ max} f ( x ) = a j c j x j
j =1

where
n - products number;
aij

- contribution coefficients defined over the set{1,0,1} ;

cj

- multiplication coefficients;

xj

- the level of the variables associated to the factors, which

influence the maximization or minimization processes.

The linear models restrictions have the form:
m

a
j =1

ij

ij

x j bi , i = 1,2,..., n

, where:

a ij

- contribution coefficients for the equation i ;

bij

- limitary level for the defining of a limit of the variables interval

for the used resources

ij

- unitary consumption of resource of type i to achieve a unit.

m - restrictions number.
The nonlinear models represent a large category used in the
studying of the interdependences between factors. The great nonlinear
models variety creates various effects in their systematized collecting and
development, because at the description of this type of models rules must be

defined, which conduct to correct descriptions and to implementations with

a very high covering degree.
There are situations in which the nonlinear models, through
appropiate transformations are converted into linear models.
For example, the nonlinear model:
y = A X W ,

through logarithmic transformation conducts to the structure

log y = log A + log X + log Y .

Performing the substitutions y' = log y , A' = log A , X ' = log X ,

model is obtained

W ' = log W

, the linear

y ' = A'+X '+ W '

which can be rewritten in the form

n

y ' = ai bi X i
i =1

where X 1 = A' , X 2 = X ' , X 3 = W ' , b1 = 1, b2 = , b3 = and a1 = a2 = a3 = 1 .

All this conducts to the idea of finding some techniques and methods
for stocking and administrating the economic models diversity, by using
adequate software.
2. The entry data series
All the economic models use entry data registered according to strict
procedures.
In the financial-bookkeeping system there are typified documents,
there are indicators registering and calculation rules - for example, for filling
in an invoice there is a procedure that allows that every person who
develops a process, obtains an identical content with the content of the
documents filled in free by all other persons who reproduce also identically
the respective process. Data series are built that include identification
elements and the levels of the variables associated to the factors.
All the data are systematized in tables with the form
X - number of rows;
Y - number of columns;

X _Y ,

where:

A complete cash voucher has the form (n + 3),2 , because it contains:

a number of n rows corresponding to the acquired products;
a row for the total value registration without tax on added value?
a row for the total tax on added value level?
a row for the sum to be paid.
The two columns correspond to:
column 1 - the product code/name;
column 2 - the bought product price.
The table with the participation of the persons which work in
administration has the form n,31 , where:
number of rows n corresponds to the employees number which
work in administration;
number of columns corresponds to the 31 days that can be
maximum in a month
A matrix

A n , 31

,is built, where an element

aij

will have one of the

values:
8 - if the worker a i has worked in the day j full program;
x ij

- if the worker i has worked in the day j a number of hours from

the set {1,2,3,4,5,6,7};

/ - if the day j isn't a labor-day
A - if the worker i was absent in the day j;
M if the worker i is on leave in the day j;
The tables where the evolution of the economic phenomenon
progress is registered have the form K, L , where
K the number of the moments T1 , T2 ,..., TK , for which the data
gathering is effectuated;
L the number of the factors, for which associated variables levels
are registered, by using very strict procedures.
For example, for the study of the monthly labour productivity over
the last 3 years, K = 36 , L = 4 ,where:
column 1 - moment;

column 2 - achieved production value;

column 3 - workers number;
column 4 - products complexity coefficient.
In case that:
= Ti +1 Ti = constant

the data series are uniform in comparison with the gathering moments.
Because the economic models entry data appear as a great diversity, it is
important to define even from the beginning the aimed objective. If the data
form the object of the concatenation, table structures are designed and solid
gathering procedures are made.
The census data from the districts level are formed in such tables.
The economic agents balance sheets, also, have printed forms
associated and the procedures describe explicitly from where the data for
each form row is taken.
Also, the procedures show the way of the general totals calculation.
For the calculation of the final result of an economic agent Gi , for a year, it
is registered:
C ij

- expenditure with the materials and the energy in the month j of

the year;
Aij

-expenditure with the amortization in the month j of the year;

S ij

- expenditures with the wages;

Pij

- penalization payments;

Vij

- earnings from the sold production;

For the performance level evaluation, at global level, for the

economic agents G , G ,..., G , we calculate the efficiency indicator
1

EF = ai Ri
i =1

where:

ai - the contribution coefficients level ( ai = 1 means loss, ai = 1

means profit).
In case that the data come from different sources it is necessary to
specify how the gathering procedures are represented.
The following situations appear:
all the data sets were gathered after the same procedures, have
the same number of series sets, the series have the same length,
are equidistant, the data gathering starting moment is the same,
for example, in the 40 districts (there are 40 data sets) are
registered; the data are taken as such because they are: correct,
complete, comparable;
the data sets were gathered after the same procedures, the series
have the same number of terms, the terms are equidistant and
the starting moments are different, as in table 3.
Data series with different starting moments
Table 3
T

X1

X3

X4

T3

x13

x23

T4

x14

x 24

T5

x15

x25

x35

x45

T6

x16

x26

x36

x46

T7

x17

x37

x47

x38

x48

x39

x49

x40

x 4,10

T1
T2

T8
T9
T10

X2

x 21
x 22

x 41
x 42

x43
x 44

In case that the result of the intersection of all the series terms has
sufficient length, it is worked with the resulted series. In case that this
desideratum isn't achieved, it is proceeded to extrapolation. Very complex
extrapolation algorithms are used to include the processes natural trends.

3. The models complexity

The complexity in Halstead sense for a model is given by the
relation:
C ( M ) = n1 log 2 n1 + n 2 log 2 n 2 , where
n

- number of operands (variables and coefficients);

n 2 - number of operators.

The linear model defined through the equation:

y = a 0 + a1 x1 + a 2 x 2 + ... + a n x n , contains:

- a0 , a1 ,..., an

- estimated model coefficients, in number of

nc , nc = n + 1 ;
- x1 , x2 ,..., xn , y - exogenous model variables and the resultative
variable, in total number of nv , nv = n + 1 ;
- * - the operators of the multiplication of the coefficients with
exogenous variables, in number of ncv , ncv = n ;
- + - the operators which connect the exogenous variables forming
the right member of the linear model equation, in number of nt , nt = n ;
- = - the assigning operator. n = 1 .
Performing the substitutions, there are obtained:
a

n1 = ne + nv ,

n2 = ncv + nt + na .

In case of the linear model given through the equation:

y = a 0 + a1 x1 + a 2 x 2 + ... + a n x n

there are obtained:

n1 = 2(n + 1)
n2 = n + 1 .

It results that the complexity level in Halstead sense of the linear

regression economic model is:
C = 2(n + 1) log 2 [2(n + 1)] + (n + 1) log(n + 1) .

After the elementary calculations effectuation it is obtained:

C = (n + 1)[2 log 2 2 + 2 log 2 (n + 1) + log 2 (n + 1)] ,

C = (n + 1)[2 + 3 log 2 (n + 1)] .

For the equation

y = a0 + a1 x1 , results n = 1 and the complexity in Halstead sense of

the model is
C = 2[2 + 3 log 2 2] = 10

For the model:

y = a0 + a1 x1 + a2 x2 + a3 x3 , with n = 3 , the complexity in Halstead sense

of this model is:

C = 4[2 + 3 log 2 2 2 ] = 4(2 + 6) = 32

In case of the nonlinear model

y = A B C .

- the operands are: y, A, B, C , , , resulting n1 = 6 ;

- the operators are: =,*, () ,*, () , resulting n2 = 5 .
The raisings to a power are noted with () , () , and the multiplication
operator has been written explicitly twice because he appears twice in the
equation.
The complexity in Halstead sense of this nonlinear model is:

C = 6 log 2 6 + 5 log 2 5 = 27.12 .

An unitary mode of complexity calculation must be imposed in order

to avoid confusions. For example in case of the model
y = ( Ax + Bt )(au 2 + bz 3 + cw4 ) + d ,

before the complexity is to be calculated, the extended transformed form

must be obtained through the effectuation of the algebraic calculations:
y = A x u 2 + A x b z 3 + A x c w4 + B t a u 2 + B t b z 3 + B t c w4 + d

The appearance frequencies of the elements which appear in the

model equation in the extended form are given in table 4:
Appearance frequencies from the extended model
Table 4
Frequency
3
3
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
19
1
2
2
2
3
3
13

Component
A
B
a

b
c

2
3
4
Total coefficients

nc

y
u

z
w
x

Total variables

nv

n1 = nv + nc = 33

Operator
*
+
()

=
Total

n2

Frequency
18
6
6
1
31

The complexity in Halstead sense of the model is:

C = 32 log 2 32 + 31log 31 = 313.58

The economic model refinement conducts to the diminution of the

complexity in Halstead sense. If a linear model has in the initial form n
exogenous variables and respectively the complexity
Cn = (n + 1)[2 + 3 log 2 (n + 1)] ,

through the diminution of the number of exogenous variables to n k , k < n ,

it is obtained a complexity:
C n k = (n k + 1)[2 + 3 log 2 (n k + 1)] , the complexity difference
= Cn C n k = 2[(n + 1) (n k + 1)] + 3(n + 1) log 2 (n + 1) 3(n k + 1) log 2 (n k + 1) .

By performing the calculations it is obtained:

= 2(k 1) + log 2
n

n +1
n k + 1 .Because a refined model has between 2 and

variables,
2 n k + 1 < n , what conducts to the inequality
2(k 1) + 3(n + 1) log2

n +1
n +1
> > 2(k 1) + 3(n + 1) log2
2 .
2

2( k 1) + 3( n + 1) log

n +1

>0

2
2
Because
, it results > 0 in case that a
complexity reduction is obtained.
In case that through refinement it is passed from a nonlinear model
to a linear model, also, the model complexity decreases.
It is the nonlinear model:

M 1 : y1 = a1 x 2 + b1 z 2 + c1 xy + d1

and through linearization it is obtained

M 2 : y 2 = a 2 x + b2 z + c 2 .

The appearance frequencies of the two models operands and

operators are given in table 5.
Structures basis model and refined model
Component
a
b
c
d
nc
y
x

z
nv
n1 = nc + nv

+
=

Frequency in the model

1
1
1
1
4
1
2
2
5
10
3
1

M1

Table 5
Frequency in the model M
1
1
1
3
2

1
1
1
3
6
2
1

Component
*

Frequency in the model

4
2
10

()
n2

M1

Frequency in the model

2
5

M2

C1 = 10 log 2 10 + 10 log 2 10 = 66.43

C 2 = 6 log 2 6 + 5 log 2 5 = 27.11

C1 > C 2 .

It is important to analyze the relative complexity of the model in

comparison with a maximum possible complexity that is obtained through
the operands and operators aggregation.
The relative complexity C , is calculated through the relation
r

Cr =

n1 log 2 n1 + n 2 log 2 n2
( n1 + n 2 ) log 2 ( n1 + n 2 )

For example for the model y = ax + b , with 4 operands and 3

operators:
C = 4 log 2 4 + 3 log 2 3 , Ct = 7 log 2 7 , it results

Cr =

C
= 0.649
Ct
.

For the model:

y = ax b
it is noticed that he contains the operands y , a, x, b , with n1 = 4 and the
operators =,*, () , n2 = 3 and has therefore the same complexity calculated
with the previous indicator, although the models have not the same
operators and the operands have different functions.

If the priorities of the operators P1 , P2 ,..., Pn , with P1 < P2 < ... < Pn , are
considered, pointing out that the operation associated to the priority Pi is
executed before the one associated to the weight Pi +1 , it is proceeded to the
building of a new weight system that associates the importance coefficients
in decreasing order in comparison with the priorities. If it is considered for

example the priority table:

Operator
()

Priority
1
2
3
4

*,/
+,=

In the evaluation of the complexity in Halstead sense, the appearance

frequencies of the operators are replaced with the associated weights.
Operator
Weight
()
4
*,/
3
+,2
=
1

Therefore, the model:

y = ax 2 + bz 2 + c , has the adequate appearance frequencies and

weights given in table 6.

Weighted components nonlinear model

Frequency
1

Weight
1

Table 6
Frequency X Weight
1

Component

nc

y
x

nv

n1 = nv + nc

Component
()

Frequency
2

Weight
4

Frequency X Weight
8
19

n2
C = 8 log 2 8 + 19 log 2 19 = 104.71

while the model y = ax + bz + c has the data in table7.

Weighted components linear model
Table 7
Frequency X
Weight
1

Component

Frequency

Weight

1
3

nc

nv

n1 = nv + nc

n2
C 2 = 6 log 2 6 + 11log 2 11 = 69.48

C 2 > C1

For the models:

M 1 : y = ax + b

M 2 : y = ax b
C1 = 4 log 2 4 + 3 log 2 3 = 12.75

11

C 2 = 4 log 2 4 + 6 log 2 6 = 33.21

It is obtained C 2 > C1 , which shows that the model is sensitive at the

operators differentiation.
The general model of the complexity in Halstead sense is:
m

i =1

i =1

j =1

j =1

C = ( f i p i ) log 2 ( f i p i ) + ( h j q j ) log 2 ( h j q j )

m number of operands;
fi

- appearance frequency of the operand i ;

pi -

weight associated to the operand in construction;

n - number of operators;
hj

- appearance frequency of the operator j ;

qj

- weight associated to the operator j ; in the considered case the

weigh was built starting from the operators priority.
For the polynomial equation of degree n, through:
y = a 0 + a1 x + a 2 x 2 + a 3 x 3 + ... + a n x n , there are identified:

a0 , a1 ,..., a n - the coefficients that must be estimated in number of

n+1; the power coefficients 1,2,...,n in number of n; on the whole
nc = 2n + 1 ;
x, y - model variables; nv = 2 ;

= - an assigning operator with the frequency f1 = 1 ;

+ - adding operator with the frequency f 2 = n ;
- the operator for raising the power with the frequency f 3 = n 1 .
It results:
()

n1 = nc + nv = 2n + 3
n2 = f1 + f 2 + f 3 = 2n

The complexity C in Halstead sense for the polynomial regression

economic model is given by the relation:
C = (2n + 3) log 2 (2n + 3) + (2n) log 2 (2n)

Taking into account that the evaluation of a function has the highest
priority, the weight associated to the evaluation of a function is p5 , with
p5 = 5 .

If it is maintained:
p1 = 1

=
+,*,/

p3 = 3

()

p4 = 4

f (.)

p5 = 5

p2 = 2

Therefore, for the complexity evaluation of the model y = a + b + c

first, the model is written under the form y = SQRT ( a + b + c ) .
Weighted components model with radical
Table 8
Frequency X
Weight
1

Component

Frequency

Weight

a
b

1
4

n1

f (.)

n2
C = 4 log 2 4 + 10 log 2 10 = 41.21

For the model:

y = sin( ax + bz + c) + cos( ax + bz + c)

10

Weighted components trigonometric functions model

Table 9
Frequency X
Weight
2

Component

Frequency

Weight

2
11

n1

10

12

f (.)

10

n2

33

The complexity in Halstead sense is:

C = 11 log 2 11 + 33 log 2 33 = 204.51

For the nonlinear models complexities are calculated using the same
rules.
4. Model generators
The economic models collections point out the existence of some
models families.
A model M is considered that it has in the structure a set of
exogenous variables. The transition to model M ' is achieved through the
inclusion in the variables set of a subset of new variables.
The transition from the model M, through the elimination of a
variable, conducts to the acquisition of a model with a more simple
structure ' M . When variables are added to the model I, it is a development

process and the operator is noted with D (.) : D( M ) = M ' .

When it is passed from a model M to another model ' M , through the
elimination of a variable, it is a simplification process and the operator is
S (.) : S ( M ) =' M .
It is observed that in case that the added variable is X i +1 at the model
M, that already contains the variables X 1 , X 2 ,..., X i .
D ( M ) X i +1 = M '

S ( M ) X i +1 = ' M

and:
S ( D ( M ) X i +1 ) X i + 1 = M

.
In case that through simplification the information acquired from the
model continues to be relevant, the process is called the model refinement.
The linear models generators represent very important mechanisms
for the acquisitions of representative economic models.
The independent variables X 1 , X 2 ,..., X n and the dependent variables Y
are considered.
The economic practice conducted, in general, to the elaboration of linear
models because:
the studied phenomenons aim a linear dependence;
the parameters estimation methods are customary for this type of
models;
the results interpretation is lightened if the linearity hypotheses are
taken into account.
Models with one variable are created, with the form:
y ( k ) = a1( k ) x i + a 0( k ) , i = 1,2,..., n and

is an order number of the model.

(k )
(k )
(k )
(k )
Models with two variables are created: y = a i xi + a j x j + a 0 ,
i, j = 1,2,..., n , i j .
In the same way are created models with three, four variables and the
most complete of the models includes the n independent variables having

the form:
n

y ( k ) = a0( k ) + ai( k ) xi
i =1

, where: on the whole, for the n independent

variables, the linear models structures are in number of 2 n 1 . With each

model structure a vector B with n components is associated, bi = 1 if the
variable X belongs to the model, bi = 0 in rest.
By using the smallest squares method it is proceeded to the
i

estimation of the coefficients of the 2 n 1 models M 1 , M 2 ,..., M 2

=a

(1)

(1)
0

+a x

(1)
1
1

M1 :

M2 :

y ( 2 ) = a 0( 2 ) + a 2( 2 ) x 2

y ( n ) = a 0( n ) + a n( n ) x n

Mn :

M n+1 : y ( n +1) = a 0( n +1) + a1( n +1) x1 + a 2( n +1) x 2

( n+ 2)
= a 0( n + 2 ) + a1( n + 2 ) x1 + a 3( n + 2 ) x3
M n+2 : y

M 2 n 1 :

y (2

1)

= a0( 2

1)

+ ai( 2
i =1

1)

xi

(k )
(k )
(k )
where a 0 , a1 ,..., a n are the coefficients that have to be estimated for the
model k.

For the 2 n 1 models structures, the sums are calculated using the
data arranged as in table 2
R

S k = ( y i f k ( x1 , x 2 ,..., xn )) 2
i =1

where f k (.) represents the analytic expression of the model M k with the
coefficients, R is the number of effectuated observations, yi the value of the
dependent variable
model.

at the moment Ti , and

is the order number of the

For the coefficients estimation of the linear models M 1 , M 2 ,..., M 2 1 ,

a software product that functions under Windows operating systems has
been elaborated. The product performs the following proceedings:
taking of data regarding the dependent variable at the moments
n

T1 , T2 ,...,TR , namely y1 , y 2 ,..., y R ;

taking of levels for the independent variables X 1 , X 2 ,..., X n . The user

can add, respectively he can delete independent variables. The free
term generation is implicitly.
the data can be taken from files created previously by the program,
which permits the taking again of the models defining;
the generation of all the models structures configurations and the
calculation of the coefficients corresponding to each model;
the calculation, for each structure of model k of the sum S k , of the
)
)
squares of the differences yi yi , where yi is the value at the
moment Ti of the dependent variables, estimated with the help of
the previously calculated parameters;
the decreasing arranging of the models after S;
Sk
>
, where
omission of those models k for which the ratio S max

(0,1]

and

it

is

value

chosen

by

the

user

and

S max = max(S k ), k = 1,2 n 1 .

The models quality is made obviously through the test data. It is considered

that the dependent variable Y depends on the factors X ,U , W , after the rule
with the form:
yi = 10 + 2 xi 3ui + 5wi , with i = 1, R , R being the observations
number. (5.1).
A number of R = 20 observations regarding the levels of the

independent variables X ,U ,W and of another variable Z , which does not

influence the level Y , are gathered by using the test data generator. The
experimental data are found in table number 10. The level of the dependent

variable Y at the moment i recorded in the table, is the one obtained through
the substitution of the levels of the variables
upper formula.

X ,U ,W

at the moment i in the

Experimental data
Moment
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Y
223
172
277
35
150
531
509
306
239
154
131
80
196
101
242
420
223
107
270
329

X
41
28
40
58
83
31
88
4
57
47
25
15
20
30
59
56
59
23
6
66

U
53
73
26
32
67
12
9
24
90
45
23
100
23
98
37
24
90
38
49
61

Z
28
21
42
52
20
3
85
58
90
90
84
1
42
80
25
90
71
89
19
78

Table 10
W
58
65
53
1
35
99
70
72
77
37
28
68
43
65
45
74
73
33
79
74

It is wanted the verification of the fact that the best model is the one
in which only the variables X ,U ,W influence Y.
For the upper test data, used as entry data for the models generator
and for = 0.01, the following results have been obtained:
the first result returned by the generator is an analytical form for
the resultative variable Y, identical with the one proposed for
testing, yi = 10 + 2 xi 3ui + 5wi , which confirms the generator capacity
to choose the best suitable model; it is observed that all the factors
that influence the level of Y are taken into account and that the

unimportant factors are ignored indifferently from their number;

the sum S of the squares of the differences between the effective
levels of Y and the levels estimated with the help of the calculated
coefficients is theoretically null, in actual fact having the size order
10 25 because of the rounding of errors introduced by the intern

representation of the numbers in the calculation system.

the second result returned by the generator is almost identical with
the first, being introduced in the analytical form also the variable Z
with the coefficient 2.94 10 15 ; this insignificant coefficient
correlated also with the size order of the values corresponding to
this variable only underline the practice null influence of Z over Y;
the size order of the sum S is also negligible.
for the value = 0.01 the generator does not offer other models
structures, in exchange the obtained results are the most relevant.
Another test to which the models structures generator is presented, is
also through the insertion of deviations of different magnitudes, in a
direction or the other, at the calculated levels of the variable Y through the
formula (1) to verify if it is capable to identify correctly the influence
factors. As a matter of fact, by keeping the values of the variables
corresponding to the independent variables in the table, changes have been
made to the column Y, this one becoming:
T
Y = (240,172,260,34,155,520,505,310,236,150,130,85,200,100,240,425,220,102,265,329 )
20

S test = ( y i ~
yi ) 2

i =1
The measure of these changes is
, S test = 904 .
This corresponds to a square average deviation of 6.72 units given the initial
value.
In this case, the results were the following:

the

first

result

returned

by

the

generator

yi = 10.1867 + 2.0013xi 2.9402ui 0.0226z i + 4.9513wi ,

was

S = 822.22 ;

the analytical form approaches very much to (5.1); the presence of

the variable Z in the model results from an accidental correlation
between this and the studied variable Y, which is however so

significant that it is included even in the optimal solution; the

influences of the main factors are returned correctly, fact noticed
through the coefficients, the influence from Z being smaller taking
into account the size order of its values and the one of the
coefficients;
not very far from the optimal solution is an analytical form in
which there are present variables considered from the beginning to
be

influence

factors

y i = 9.0558 + 1.9934 xi 2.9391u i + 4.9548wi ,

X ,U ,W ,

having

S = 831.16 ;

the
generator identifies the influence factors correctly, the model built
with their help being considerable close to the best solution.
The linear models generators with delayed arguments allow the
elaboration of constructions which permit the modeling of the multiple
stimulation effects which are found on short term in influences from all the
sets.
It is considered a set formed from equidistant moments
where t1 < t 2 < ... < t n and t k = t k 1 + , k = 2, n . The
restriction regarding the equidistance does not affect the generality of the
present approach.
It is considered an element t from the set of the moments and the
T = {t1 , t 2 ,..., t n } ,

exogenous variables X 1 , X 2 ,..., X m , for which there has been effectuated

measurements in the moments t1 < t 2 < ... < t n . Also, for the endogenous
variable Y, measurements have been effectuated in the same moments,
resulting the data from table 11.

Data set for set T

Table 11
Moment
t1

y1

t2

y2

X1 X 2

Xm

x11 x12 x1 j x1m

x2 m
x 21 x 22 x 2 j

ti

yi

tn

yn

x n1 x n 2 .. x nj xnm

xi1 xi 2

x ij xim

where,
yi

- measured level of the dependent variable Y at the moment t i ;

x ij - measured level of the independent variable X j at the moment

ti .
The phenomenon evolution shows that the factors influence
differently the resultative variable. More, the variation at a moment t k o a
factor spread them with a delay abroad the evolution of the resultative
variable.
Further on, there are considered models of the form:
m

yi = a0 + a j xk , j

, k {t1 , t 2 ,..., t n } .
For example, labor productivity W at a given moment t is influenced
by the level of investments in the higher education at the moment t h , where
h is the duration of the studies of a series of graduates integration. The linear
model is:
j =1

Wt = a0 + a1 I t h

But the models with delayed argument can be also of the form:
yt = a0 + a1 xt 1 + a 2 xt 2

When the model structure is not known, it is necessary that the

effectuation of a proper qualitative analysis and of a proper quantitative
analysis. With that purpose, algorithms must be defined for the generation
of the models with delayed argument which conduct to operational models

structures.
For the generation of linear models with a single delayed
argument, there are considered the independent variable X and the
dependent variable Y for which measurements corresponding to the
moments t1 , t 2 ,..., t n , as in table 12.
Data for the linear model with a single delayed argument
Table 12
Moment
Y
X
t1

y1

x1

t2

y2

x2

ti

yi

xi

tn

yn

xn

By using the smallest squares method, the coefficients of the model

n

(1)
i

= a 0 + a1 x i are estimated and

S1 = ( y i y i(1) ) 2
i =1

is calculated. Where y i is

the value of the dependent variables estimated at the moment t i and (1) is
the order number of the model.
At the next step of the algorithm, the initial data table is transformed
in a modified table, through the sliding with a position of the terms
corresponding to the independent variable, obtaining table 13.
The argument is delayed by a period
Table 13
Moment
t1

y1

t2
t3

y2
y3

x1

x2

ti

yi

xi

yn

x n 1

tn

By ignoring the first row and by using the smallest squares method,
(2)
(2)
(2)
it results the model y i = a 0 + a1 xi 1 and he sum of the square differences
n

S 2 = ( yi y i( 2) ) 2
i =1

.
For a delay of the argument by two periods, it results the model

y i( 3) = a 0( 3) + a1( 3) x i 2 , the data being represented in the table number 14.

The argument is delayed by two periods

Table 14
Moment
t1

Y
y1

X
-

t2

y2

t3

y3

x1

t4

y4

x2

ti

yi

xi

yn

xn2

tn
The

method

is

repeated,

obtaining

models

of

the

form

and the sums S s where s indicates the model order, and k,

the delay taken into account. These models are arranged ascendingly
depending on the calculated sums and the first l models with delayed
argument which we consider good are chosen.
y i( s ) = a 0( s ) + a1( s ) x i k

Nonlinear models generators target the utilization of some

structures of analytical forms. It is considered a set of analytical forms given
in table 15 [6].

Analytical forms of the nonlinear models

Table 15
Number
criteria
1.
2.
3.
4.

parabolic function 1
parabolic function 2
parabolic function 3
parabolic function 4

5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.

parabola of Neile
power function
exponential function 1
exponential function 2
exponential function 3
exponential function 4
logarithmic function 1
logarithmic function 2
semi logarithmic function
inverse log function

15.

inverse log-log function

16.

inverse function

17.

Prais function

18.

Function of order 3

Name of the model

19.

hyperbolic function 1

20.

hyperbolic function 2

21.

Tornqvist function 1

22.

Tornqvist function 2

23.

Tornqvist function 3

Analytical form
y = ax + bx + c
y = a + bx

y = 3 a + bx
y = a + bx 3
y = 3 ax + bx + c

y = ax b

y = e ax+b
y = ae bx
y = ab x
y = e ax x b

ln y = a + b ln x
y = a ln x
y = a + b ln x
b
x
b
ln y = a + + c ln x
x
b
y =a+
x

ln y = a +

y=e

b
x

x
(ax + bx + c)
1
y=
(a + bx )
b
y =a+
(c + x )
kx
y=
( x + a)
k ( x + a)
y=
( x + b)
bx( x c)
y=
( x + a)
y=

Number
criteria
24.

Name of the model

Johnson function

25.
26.

parabolic log function

logistic function

27.

square logistic function

28.
29.
30.

Cobb-Douglas function 1
Cobb-Douglas function 2
CES function 1

31.

CES function 2

32.

CES function 3

33.

CES function 4

34.

Allen function

35.

Sato function

Analytical form
y=e

a
(b+ x )

y = a (ln x ) + b ln x + c
k
y=
(1 + be ax )

y=

k2
(1 + be ax ) 2

y = Ax1 x2 e x3
y = Ax1 x2

(
y = A(dx

y = A dx1 + (1 d ) x 2

)
)
)

+ (1 d ) x 2

y = A(dx1 + (1 d ) x 2

y = A dx1 + (1 d ) x 2

e x3

e x3

y = 2hx1 x2 ax12 bx22

y=

x12 x 22
( ax13 + bx 23 )

For a set of endogenous variables formed of y1 , y 2 ,..., y M and a set of

exogenous variables formed of x1 , x2 ,..., x N , a nonlinear model with one
unknown factor is generated the variants being y i = f ( X j ) , obtaining M N
models structures.
So as it results from table 11, R analytical forms are defined before
with a single exogenous variable, this involving the fact that the generator
will conduct to the acquisition of a number of G models structures given by
the relation G = R M N .
For example, for M = 2 , N = 3
y1 = f ( X 1 ) y 2 = f ( X 1 )
y1 = f ( X 2 ) y 2 = f ( X 2 )
y1 = f ( X 3 ) y 2 = f ( X 3 ) .

If the analytical forms exist:

ln x, x > 0
f ( x) = x
e , x 0 , then the generated models structures are:

y1 = ln x1 y1 = e x1
y1 = ln x 2 y1 = e x

y1 = ln x3 y1 = e x

y 2 = ln x1 y 2 = e x

y 2 = ln x 2 y 2 = e x2

y 2 = ln x3 y 2 = e x3
It is very important that in addition to the analytical forms defined in
table 10, the user has at his disposal facilities for defining personal
analytical forms, to which he applies already existing structures generation
mechanisms.
For example, for models with the form:
n

y = X i i
i =1

the generation is effectuated both inside the structures for imposed values of
the variables number and for transformations of the variables with a set of
functions f1 (.), f 2 (.),..., f m (.) .
For example, for the variables

X1, X 2 , X 3 ,

for n = 2 and for the

functions f1 = ln x and f 2 ( x ) = x ,the models generator conducts to the

acquisition of the following nonlinear models structures:
y = x1 x2

y = x1 x 2

y=

x1 ln x 2

y = x1 x3

y = x1 x3

y=

x1 ln x3

y = x 2 x3

y = x 2 x3

y = x2 ln x3

y = x1 ln x 2

y = x 2 x1

y = x1

y = x1 ln x3

y = x3 x1

y = x2

y = x2 ln x3

y = x3 x 2

y = x3

y = ln x1 x 2

y=

y = ln x1

x1 x 2

y = ln x1 x3

y=

x1 x3

y = ln x 2

y = x3 ln x2

y=

x 2 x3

y = ln x3

y = ln x1 ln x 2

y = ln x1 x 2

y = x1

y = ln x1 ln x3

y = ln x1 x3

y = x2

y = ln x2 ln x3

y = ln x 2 x3

y = x3

The models generators have the mission to provide complete lists of

different analytical expressions which cover the whole combinations
diversity. With the developments towards the artificial intelligence of an
informatics application, the models generator will include also self training
elements extracted from the analysis of the models collection stored in the
modelbases and the premise of obtaining new models classes will be
created, what corresponds to the achievement of a qualitative leap in the
economic models structures.
5. Procedures
Until the utilization of an economic model, the covering of numerous
stops is necessary. The procedures meant for the coefficients estimation
have as entry data:
the length of he data series associated to the influence factors and
to the resultative variables;
the proper data series;
the structure of the model for which the coefficients are estimated,
the code associated to the used estimation method.
The results offered by these procedures are:
the estimated coefficients string;
the level of the sums of the squares of the differences between the
resultative variables real levels and the estimated ones;
values associated to the result of the testing of some statistical
hypotheses regarding the estimators quality;
information regarding the estimation development.

In case that the estimation methods are used, which impose some
restrictions on the model entry data series, before the development of the
respective estimation algorithm, the hypotheses regarding those restrictions
are verified. Otherwise it is passed to the utilization of other estimation
algorithms free from these restrictions. After the utilization of these
procedures, the information returned by the procedures has to be analyzed
to validate the model in which the estimation process has been developed
and to use the estimators in a consistent way, in comparison to the
ensemble of the designing activities, analysis, realization and current
utilization of the economic models.
The procedures for operating on data sets target the realization:
the taking of the data sets;
the data sets homogenization through interpolation, extrapolation
and elementary transformation;
the sets concatenation obtaining data sets with an increased number
of data series;
the extension of the data sets for obtaining series with a greater
number of terms;
the providing of the data comprehensibility through the using of
terms transformation coefficients;
the data sets aggregation for obtaining new indicators
The entry data contain:
the data series number;
the data series length;
processing typologies.
The obtained results are materialized in:
the new data series;
the lengths of the new data series;
the storage destinations of the series;
information regarding the quality of the operating process.
The procedures for the generation of test data have the mission to
prepare entry data that will be used for the model research. There are
numerous situations in which the existing data structures are incomplete,

although the evolution trends of the phenomenon and variation limits of the
associated variables levels are known. Also, the other existing data series
lengths at one time are insufficient for producing qualitative estimations.
For preparing an economic model, data sets have to be generated and
the model properties have to be studied by using the generated data sets. In
this way the behavior of the model is simulated. Procedures for the
pseudoaleatory numbers generation are used, which follow different
distributions rules. Entry data of the procedures for the data sets generations
are:
number o data series which have to be generated;
lengths of the data series which have to be generated;
distribution rules which the generated pseudoaleatory numbers
have to follow, the directions which have to be followed (any,
ascending, descending);
the limits of the interval on which the generation is effectuated.
The obtained results target:
the generated data series;
the data storage support;
the way in which the process has developed.
For example, if the generation of a data series S is wanted, formed of
n terms x1 , x2 ,..., xn , with xi [ A, B] and x1 < x2 < ... < xn , a procedure that
realizes such a demand includes:
the mechanism for the selection of the instructions sequence for
the generation of pseudoaleatory numbers which follow the distribution
rule for the series S;
determination of the ratio r, with which the set of the intervals
[ai , bi ]

is built, in which the pseudoaleatory numbers series is generated,

where
[a1 , b1 ] = [ A, A + r ]
[a 2 , b2 ] = [ A + r , A + 2r ]

..
[an , bn ] = [ A + (n 1)r , B]

BA

r=
n 1 , bi = ai + r
it results B = A + (n 1)r ,

referring to the pseudoaleatory numbers generation sequence of the

interval [ai , bi ] for obtaining the value i ;
repeating of the generation process with the obtaining of the string
1 , 2 ,..., n ;

repeating of the process for obtaining data sets.

It exists the possibility to generate data sets, in which:
all the data sets have ascending tendency;
all the data sets have descending tendency;
some data sets have ascending tendency and others have
descending tendency;
the ascending or descending tendencies are expressed on
subintervals for all the data sets.
The data sets are instituted in simulated expressions of some work
hypotheses regarding the evolution of an economic process. The model will
be tested on the generated data sets and the behavior in the different
hypotheses will be seen.
The procedures for the values calculation take models, estimated
coefficients and data sets of the exogenous variables and calculate the
simulations terms y i1 , y i 2 ,..., y in , i = 1,2,..., m for the models: M 1 , M 2 ,..., M m .
The procedures for the models selection are used on conditions that
there exist:
the data series containing the registered values of a resultative
variable;
the data series with estimated data of the resultative variable
obtained through the utilization of the models from the modelbase;
processes of securing the compatibility of all the data sets.
An algorithm for selection from the multitude of models of those
which belong to a homogeneity subinterval of specified length is defined.
The procedures for refining the model have the mission to reduce
the number of exogenous variables from the equation structure. In case of
the models with more equations, besides the reduction of the exogenous

variables number, the reduction of the equations number also takes place.
An economic model with smaller dimensions is obtained.
The role of the refinement is to reduce the administration effort of
the model without losing the estimation quality of the resultative variables.
For example it is considered the model M given by the equation:
y = ax + bz + cw + d .

After the effectuation of the coefficients estimation it is obtained:

y = 4.2 x + 18.7 z 3.5w + 21.12 .

By using the variables levels, the estimated values y of the resultative

variable are obtained. It is calculated:
n

S 1 = ( y i y i ) 2 = 4625
i =1

Through the factorial analysis the weights of the independent

variables are obtained
Variable

Weight (%)
87
9
4
100

x
z
w
TOTAL

Cumulated weights
87
96
100
-

In the hypothesis that variables are included in the model so that the
total weights are greater than 95% , it results that the refined model has the
structure M ' :
y = ax + bz + d

For the estimated values of the refined model it is obtained the sum of
the differences squares
S2 =

(y

y i ) = 3850

i =1

The analysis model I , where represents the acceptance limit of the

cumulated weight of the factors, is given by the relation:

I (M i , M i ' ) =

min{S i , S i ' }
max{S i , S i ' }

Here the models

Mi

and his refined model

Mi '

were taken into account.

If I [0;0.82) , the refined model isnt representative and loses information.

If I [0.82;0.92) , the refined model is good, the information loss is
acceptable. If I [0.92;1] , the refined model is very good and it is taken in
the economic analysis without any risks.
Through the calculation of the indicator:
I (M 1 , M 2 ) =

min{S1 , S 2 }
= 0.83
max{S1 , S 2 }

It results that the refined model must be accepted.

In the same way it is handled also for the models with simultaneous
equations.
The procedure for the identification of the connections between
the variables to set if between the two variables X and Y there are relations
of the form (see the adjacent table):
y = ax
x
y=
a
y = (x )a
y= x+a
y = x a
y = ln x
y = sin (x )

Also in case of three or more variables it is verified if one of them is

the linear combination of two or more variables.
For example for the variables Y, X, Z , it is verified if:
y = x+z
y = xz
y = x z
y = x + z
The situations in which direct connections appear are pointed out
and some variables are eliminated, resulting list of essential variables for the
models. The procedures are based on the fact that, in case of the
dependences from the presented types, the correlation coefficient is equal
to 1.

The procedure consists of:

the calculation of the correlation matrix
the selection of the variables for which the correlation coefficient
is 1
the reconstruction of the reduced list of the variables between
which there are not direct connections.
There are considered the data from table 16.
Table 16
Number
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
X6
criteria
x11
a x11
x21 + a
1
x11
x 21 a
x 21
a

x 22 + a

x12

x12

x 22

a x12

x13

x23

a x13

x23 + a

x13

x14

x24

a x14

x 24 + a

x14

x15

x25

a x15

x25 + a

x15

x16

x 26

a x16

x 17

x27

a x17

x18

x28

a x18

x19

x29

a x19

x1,10

X 2 ,10

a x1,10

x 2 ,10 + a

x1,10

x1,11

X 2 ,11

a x1,11

x 2 ,11 + a

x1,11

x112

X 2 ,12

a x1,12

x1,13

X 2,13

a x1,13

x 2 ,13 + a

x1,13

x1,14

X 2 ,14

a x1,14

x 2 ,14 + a

x1,14

x1,15

X 2 ,15

7
8
9
10

x26 + a

x27 + a
x28 + a
x29 + a

x23 a

x 24 a

x25 a

x16

x26 a

x17

x27 a

x28 a

x18
x19

x 22 a

a
x29 a

x 2 ,10 a

11
12
13
14
15

x 2 ,11 a

a
x 2 ,12 + a

x1,12
a

x 2 ,12 a
x 2 ,13 a

x 2 ,14 a

a
a x1,15

x 2 ,15 + a

x1,15
a

x 2 ,15 a

Adequately a correlation matrix is created and the obtained levels

conduct to the elimination of the variables between which there are linear
dependences.
The procedures for the data regrouping depending on the
orthogonality target the reorganization of the data sets used in models as
there were provided by the user. As the tables with data are inserted, a
unique reference number is assigned to them and the module activation
leads automatically to the utilization of the data set after the reference
number.
The procedures for the determination of the models
orthogonality effectuate the quantitative analysis for the models
description, pointing out:
the number of equations
the number of distinct variables
the number of distinct operands
the appearance frequencies of the operators
the operands positions and the operators positions.
The obtained values are compared and the degree of similitude
between the analyzed models results. If the orthogonality indicator G = 0 , it
results that the models are identical. If the same indicator has the value 1, it
results that the models are totally different.
The models are considered:
M 1 : y = ax + b
M 2 : y = ax + bw + cz + d
M 3 : y = AX F
a

M 4 : y = 1 + e bx

M 5 max( x + y + z )
:
ax + by + z < e
dx + mz < e

The data from table 17 result through the effectuation of the

structural analysis of the four models.

The quantitative characteristics of the models

Table 17
Characteristic
Number of
equations
Number of
variables
Number of
coefficients
Number of
constants
Number of
distinct
operators
Operations +
*
=
<
Raising to
power
Min
/

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

x, y

y, x, w, z

y , x, f

y, x

3
x, y, z
6

?1

3??

3
=,*,+

7
=,*,+

1
1
1
0
0

3
3
1
0
0

5
=,*,raising
to power
0
2
1
0
2

0
0

0
0

0
0

15
max < + *

1
1
1
0

( )

4
7
0
2
0

0
1

1
0

2 eb

The orthogonality degree G between the models M and M is deduced

in this way:
the columns of the models are compared
if the elements of the row k are identical, the value 1 is assigned
ij

to the variable bk , otherwise the value 0 is assigned to the

variable .
the number of the n characteristics, for which the orthogonality is
analyzed, is determined; in table 17, n = 12 :

b (M
n

Gij =

k =1

,M j )

the symmetric matrix of the orthogonality degrees given in table

18 results.

The orthogonality matrix of the models

Table 18
M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

10

12

12

0
6

12

12
12

11
12
12
12

12

0
10

12

12

In case of the models with null orthogonality degree, it is proceeded

to the correspondence table normalization. The correspondence table is in
fact a homogenous structure which contains M components, where M
indicates the number of different models stored in the modelbase.
The quadruples included into a component indicate:
the orthogonal name of the model
the reference number of the model from the base
the reference number of the variables list
the reference number of the data set
For example in the modelbase BM, the models are given:
y = ax + b
M 2 : y = az + b
M 3 : y = ax + bz + c
M 4 : y = ax + bw + d

For the model

M1

the data from the table 19 are used.

The data used in model
Table 19

Number criteria
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

y1

10
15
17
31
42
61
72
55
110
130

x1
1
17
1
2
3
3
1
6
2
8

For the model M the data are systematized in the same way.
A synthetic form regarding the initial structure contains data grouped
in table 20.
2

The table structure of the models existing in the modelbase

Table 20
Columns
Reference
Reference
Model name
Model
used in
number data number data
reference
variables
sets
lists and
number
tables
variables
M1
1
1
1
1,2
M2
2
2
2
1.3
M3
3
3
3
1.23
M4
4
4
4
1.2.4
After the models analysis the orthogonality degrees result:
G12 = 0

G34 = 0

which leads to the idea of the restructuration of the models table contents.
Also it is observed that the data contain numerous identical elements:
Gy1y2 = 0

Gy1 y3 = 0
Gy y = 0

Gy1y4 =0
y1

2 3

y2

y3

y4

x1

x2

z1

z2

w1

0
0

0
0
0

1
1
1
1

1
1
1
1
0

1
1
1
1
1
1

1
1
1
1
1
1
0

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

It will result a new models structure, a new models table will be

created and it will be proceeded to the reorganization of the reference lists of
the data sets.

6. Administration system of the modelbase

From the presented facts results that the modelbase is a complex
construction in which lists are included with:
- dependent variables and independent variables;
- linear and nonlinear models structures;
- registered data sets and generated data sets;
- implementation of the coefficients estimation algorithms;
- procedures for the hypothesis verification;
- procedures for the estimated values calculation;
- models hierarchizing procedures.
These very important components are elements with which the
modelbase is populated. For the modelbase to become operational, an
administration system has to exist.
First of all, the administration system has to operate distinctly with
data sets, with the procedures and with the models structures.
Second of all, the administration system functions have to effectuate
the fast finding of the data sets, of the models structures and of the
procedures in order to secure the processes development in concordance
with the demands of the analyst economist.
Third of all, the administration system has to be equipped with
functions which permit the data sets adding, the models adding and the
procedures adding. The perspective has to be changed, through which the
modelbase bringing up to date implied data / models / procedures deleting or
changing of some parts of these with new sequences.
The acceptance of the bringing up to date function exclusive through
adding comes to bring a concordance between the natural way of
understanding the evolution with the corresponding reflection of it on
informatics level.
The modelbase administration system operates with non homogenous
entities, important aspect in securing the flows consistency.
Fourth of all, an open character is secured, the users having at their
disposal the possibility of defining personal algorithms for interpolation and

extrapolation, for pseudoaleatory numbers generation, for the coefficients

estimation, for implementing personal models selection criteria.
Fifth of all the, defining of the specific concepts regarding the
finding, selection, extraction, targets the triplets (data, models structures,
procedures), which group complex proceedings.
Sixth of all, a growth of the generalization degree for the transaction
concept is produced, which in case of the modelbase implies the traversing
of some flows in which it is operated simultaneously with data sets, with
data structures and with procedures.
The new conglomerate, more complex than the object structure that
includes the operands and operators, develops a new projection on the
philosophy of designing an administration system, the administration system
of the modelbase, in which new typologies specific to the implemented
processes in the field of artificial intelligence are included besides the
already usual proceedings.
Utilizations of the modelbase imply activations of some sequences
of procedures from the modelbase.
The administration system of the modelbase is a construction with a
very high complexity degree. The users must have the possibility of starting
a small diversity of economic analysis projects.
For example, the coefficients estimation of an economic model on the
basis of a data set consists of:
the specification of the exogenous variables number and of the
endogenous variables number;
the specification of the data series terms number;
the insertion of the data table
the delimitation of the variables list corresponding to the data series
position
Also, some results regarding the estimations quality are displayed.
This procedure is specific to the situation in which the user has a
clear image on the phenomenon and this ones analysis is already a routine
activity.

7. Conclusions
The new instruments have to be first presented, after that the
activated functions for the most often encountered problems types have to be
explained and only after that the comparative analysis of the given results is
effectuated.
The modelbase is a complex construction, which has the mission to
reunite in a single whole, like a human body, components with separate
functions, however cohesive, which through the created interdependences
solve a great diversity of problems types.
The user defines his own problems which he administrates. It is
important to have a correct image on the problems which he holds or he
considers new problems.
The reconstruction is the result of the reproducibility of some
sequences of steps, of data sets and with models structures with the same
starting contents, which the abandoned problem had or the new problem
obtained from an old problem through the insertion of major changes when
the basis problem from which the development was obtained was not saved.
The open character of this instrument is given by the functions
through which the user defines data sets and models, which, if they respect
the orthogonality demands, are included in the modelbase in the form of
permanent entities, free to be referred by any other users.
The problem of the inclusion by users of the procedures, of the
processing options and of the menus in the interface comes up against the
resistance of the restrictions connected with the quality of the procedures as
software, to which the elaborator has to secure correctness, viability and
portability at least at the level which the administration system of the
modelbase has in his ensemble.
Through the inclusion of the users procedures, a significant
heterogeneousness degree is obtained, which is administrated through the
securing of the transparence concerning the new included procedures origin
or through the securing of the temporary character or through the
maintaining of the open character for source texts so that other users test and
intervene for the errors correction.

The modelbase offers elements which integrate in other informatics

applications. Also it takes data sets which have results in the users
informatics applications.
The opening to the Internet shows the new valences of the economic
modeling, as well as the tendency to obtain models structures generalizations
in order to extend their utilization.
The modelbase complexity has the tendency to increase because:
- through the increase of the data sets number, through the increase of
their diversity and through the increase of the non homogeneousness degree,
procedures which allow the unitary referring and procedures for the securing
of the assimilation from qualitative point of view of these new data sets have
to be elaborated;
- through the adding of new models structures or of new models
typologies, algorithms have to be implemented which secure the coefficients
estimation, which conduct to the obtaining of final results and which
integrate them into the existing models multitude as a simple process of
diversity increase;
- when new types of problems are proposed to the users, visible
options must be in the accessed menus and the necessary connections
between the components already existing in the modelbase and the new
components which are included to implement the new problems types must
be defined.
The problem of the modelbase has tendencies of favorable evolution,
the new researches conducting to approaches orientated to the natural
language utilization and to the newest results in the field of artificial
intelligence. The development however has to be approached gradually, in
steps to secure the operational character of the construction and not the
distortions specific to a product found in an endless elaboration process.