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As of the publication date of this report, Quarz Capital Management Ltd. and its affiliates (collectively "Quarz"), others that contributed research to this report and
others that we have shared our research with (collectively, the Authors) have long positions in and own options on the stock of the company covered herein
(Metro Holdings) and stand to realize gains in the event that the price of the stock increases. Following publication of the report, the Authors may transact in the
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investment decision.
Agenda
Introduction
The Metro Opportunity
Property Portfolio
Cash and Liquid Investments
Key Reasons for Undervaluation
Quarz Capital Recommendations for Metro Holdings Limited
Illustrative Sum of Parts Valuations
Shareholder Base
Conclusion
Metros property development projects (Clockwise L R): Nanchang Fashion Mark (China), The Crest @ Prince Charles Crescent (SG), Sheffield Digital Campus
(UK), Milliners Wharf (UK), Middlewood Locks (UK)
Introduction
Imagine if You Can
Receive Another
for FREE
&
Key Statistics
Last Price1
52-Week Range1
Shares Outstanding2
Market Capitalization
Gross Asset Value (GAV)3
Net Asset Value (NAV) 3,4
NAV/Share
Discount to NAV
Dividend/Yield2
Cash Due
from JV
10%
SGD 0.915
SGD 0.81 - 1.09
828.0m
SGD 757.7m
SGD 1,360.7m
SGD 1,332.8m
SGD 1.61
- 43%
0.07 / 7.7%
Property
Investment
35%
Net Cash
30%
Property
Development
10%
Retail
4%
Cash and
Liquid
Investments
41%
1) Bloomberg data as of 3rd Oct 16
2) Based on Metros FY2016 (end Mar) Annual Report, 1Q17 Financial Statement
3) Based on QCM estimates and Metros FY2016 (end Mar) Annual Report, FY1Q17 Financial
Statement
4) Metro FY1Q17 Financial Statement Total Equity SGD 1,372m (SGD 1,311 if excluding dividend
of SGD 58m distributed on 4th of Aug 16)
Indonesia
4%
Singapore
2%
China
49%
UK
4%
111
Net Cash and liquid
Investments of
~SGD 637m
~84% of Mkt Cap!!
1200
1000
133
Upside of 76%
to NAV
SGD million
393
800
600
@SGD 0.915
36
55
200
Property Investment
and Development
portfolio valued
at SGD 603m
~80% of mkt Cap
470
134
0
Metro's NAV
Retail
Cash Due from JV
Metro City
Type
Loc ation
Shanghai
Nanchang
Ownership
Lettable Area
Valuation
Value / PSM
Oc c upanc y Rate
Net Inc ome
Inc ome Yield
Top Tenants
Retail Mall
Xujiahui Distric t - Direc tly
linked to Xujiahui Subway
Station (Line 1,9,11)
60%
39,107 sqm
1
SGD 221m
SGD 5,651
3,6
88.2%
1,6
SGD 22.1m
10.0%
Fitness & Beauty Ctr - 7.6%
Star Theatre - 6.5%
Food Republic - 6.4%
Kodak Cinema - 6.0%
Type
Loc ation
Ownership
Lettable Area
Valuation
Value / PSM
Oc c upanc y Rate
Net Inc ome
Inc ome Yield
Top Tenants
Guangzhou
Type
Location
Ownership
Saleable Area
Area Delivered
Valuation
Value / PSM
To be Completed
GIE Tow er
Type
Location
Ownership
Lettable area
Valuation
Value / PSM
Occupancy Rate
Net Income
Income Yield
Top Tenants
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
Grade A Commercial
Yexiu District
60%
28,390
SGD 100m1
SGD 3,522
86%3
SGD 3.8m3,4
3.8%
Yu Cai Restaurant - 14.2%
Abbott Lab - 11.7%
GZ Kamen Industry - 10.2%
Sino- US MetLife Ins - 7.7%
Portfolio valued at
SGD 523m8 and
generates normalized
rental income in excess
of SGD 30m
Development Profit
SGD 210m1
Profit / PSM
SGD 940
To be Completed
Commercial Development
Location
Ownership
Type
Location
Ownership
50%
Residential Development
Jervois Area - 5 mins drive to
Orchard Road Shopping Belt
40%
Saleable Area
12,200 sqm
Saleable Area
50,854 sqm
Development Profit
SGD 15m2
Development Profit
SGD 50.8m3
Profit / PSM
SGD 1230
To be Completed
2017 - 2020
Profit / PSM
SGD 1000 3
To be Completed
Late 2016
Source: Quarz Capital Management, Metro Holdings Limited, various financial reports of UK property developers
Listed Equities
17%
1.50
1.40
1.30
1.20
+40%
Ex-date of
FY15 dividend
+25%
Ex-date of
FY16 dividend
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
Declaration of
FY14 dividend
of SGD
0.6/share
Declaration of
FY15 dividend
of SGD
0.6/share
Feb-14 Aug-14
Feb-15 Aug-15
Declaration of
FY16 dividend
of SGD
0.7/share
0.60
Aug-13
Feb-16 Aug-16
Feb-17 Aug-17
10
Communication
- Hard to decipher financials (no clear breakdown of key financial data such as recurring
rental income / development and one-off gains)
Stock has little institutional following and no sell-side coverage which lowers trading liquidity
Negative feedback loop of lower liquidity further leads to lower investors interest
Management
11
- Increase coverage by both buy- and sell-side analysts (management to participate in equity
roadshows)
Increase in quality and quantity of reported financial information and presentation (data
on rental income, rental rate trend, forecasted development margins and profit)
Management
12
0.06
1.20
Upside in excess
of 40%
0.12
Discount to NAV
to decrease to
~25%
0.40
1.10
0.21
1.00
Dividend Yield
of ~23%
0.90
0.80
0.92
0.70
Undervaluation and
cash-rich profile of Metros
stock to provide downside
protection
0.60
Current Share
Price
Extraordinary
Dividend
13
Total Upside
Market Value
(SGDm)
100.0 1
221.0 1
200.0 1
368.0 1
6.5 1
Current
Yield (%)
3.8
10.0
7.6
2.7
Stake (%)
100.0
60.0
60.0
30.0
100.0
502.0 3
3009.2 3
16.1
1.0
178.0 2
210.0 4
15.0 5
50.9 6
30.0
25.0
50.0
40.0
Proportional
Value (SGDm)
469.5
100.0
132.6
120.0
110.4
6.5
148.3
80.8
30.1
37.4 10
133.7
53.4
52.5
7.5
20.3
55.0
0.0 7
55.0 8
554.1
421.3 9
132.8 1
1360.7
Liabilities
Deferred Income
Deferred Taxation
Net Asset Value
Mkt Cap (Share Price@0.915)
NAV / Share
Discount to NAV (%)
Upside to NAV (%)
27.9
12.0 1
15.9 1
1332.8
757.7
1.6
43.2
75.9
14
GAV (%)
34.5
7.3
9.7
8.8
8.1
0.5
10.9
5.9
2.2
2.7
9.8
3.9
3.9
0.6
1.5
4.0
0.0
4.0
40.7
31.0
9.8
100.0
Shareholder Base
Description of Shareholder Base
Estate of Mr Jopie Ong is deemed to be interested in
the shares held by Eng Kuan Company, Dynamic
Holdings and Leroy Singapore.
Shareholding Level
Estate of
Jopie Ong
34%
Others
50%
15
Conclusion
The Metro Opportunity, in Summary
Metros Share Price is Severely
Undervalued
We Recommend:
Immediate distribution of SGD 150 - 200
million of excess capital (Dividend Yield of
~23%)
16
RESEARCH OFFICE
Quarz Capital ASIA (Singapore) PTE. LTD.
Havard Chi, CFA
Head of Research
E-mail
hch@quarzcapital.com
Tel
+65 (0)94 33 3898
REGISTERED OFFICE
Quarz Capital Management, Ltd.
Clifton House, 75 Fort Street
P.O. Box 1350, George Town
Grand Cayman, KY1-1108
www.quarzcapital.com