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University of Western Australia

School of Mathematics and Statistics


STAT1520, Semester 2 2013

Mid-semester Test
Student Number:
Family Name:
Use Block Letters

Given Name:
Use Block Letters
Please select your tutorial time from the following.
Mon 10 am ENCM:111 Andrew Hardegen
Mon 1 pm ELEC:151 Yanqi Qiu
Mon 2 pm ENCM:111 Eric Tsen
Tue 9 am ENCM:G23 Nur Izzati Mokak
Tue 11 am ENCM:G23 Aisyah Ishak
Wed 10 am ELEC:151 Soo Yue Yi Joyce
Wed 10 am CSSE:2.03 Yanqi Qiu
Wed 12 noon ENCM:111 Haree Thiruganam
Wed 1 pm ELEC:151 Andrew Hardegen
Wed 2 pm ENCM:111 Jeanine Lui
Thu 10 am ENCM:G23 Juwita Maritsa
Thu 12 noon ENCM:111 Hubert Heng
Fri 9 am CSSE:203 Jack Lee-Kopij
Fri 9 am ENCM:111 Parinaz Ezzati
Fri 11 am ENCM:G23 Dinuka Muhandiramge

Mon 10 am ENCM:G23 Bernadette Podesta-Bajada


Mon 2 pm ENCM:G23 Andrew Hardegen
Tue 9 am ENCM:111 Marco Susilo
Tue 11 am ENCM:111 Bernadette Podesta-Bajada
Tue 2 pm CSSE:205 Oliver Yee
Wed 10 am ENCM:G23 Nur Izzati Mokak
Wed 10am ENCM:111 Haree Thiruganam
Wed 12 noon ENCM:G23 Nur Izzati Mokak
Wed 2 pm ENCM:G23 Michelle Trevenen
Thu 9 am ELEC:151 Aisyah Ishak
Thu 12 noon ENCM:G23 Jack Lee-Kopij
Thu 2 pm ENCM:111 Hubert Heng
Fri 9 am ENCM:G23 Dinuka Muhandiramge
Fri 11 am ENCM:111 Marco Susilo
Fri 2 pm ENCM:111 Parinaz Ezzati

1. This test counts for 15% of your final mark for STAT1520.
2. Total Marks = 100.
3. Attempt all questions.
4. Where appropriate, working with reasons should be given.
5. The last page has been left blank for rough working.

Tables are attached to the back of the paper.


Time Limit: 90 minutes

THIS PAGE HAS BEEN LEFT BLANK INTENTIONALLY

Section 1 (30 marks) This section contains multiple choice questions. Each question is worth
2 marks.
1. A discrete random variable X takes values 1, 0 and 1, with pX (1) = 0.2, pX (1) = 0.2. What
is P(X = 0)?
0.
0.2.
0.4.
0.6.
2. A discrete random variable X takes only positive values, and P(X = 1) = 0.1, P(X = 2) = 0.3.
Which one of the following must be true?
P(X 3) = 0.6.
P(X 2) 0.6.
P(X > 3) 0.6.
P(X > 2) < 0.6.
3. A discrete random variable X takes values 1, 1 and 3, and E(X) = 1. Which one of the
following must be true?
P(X = 1) = P(X = 3).
P(X = 1) = P(X = 3).
P(X = 1) = P(X = 1).
P(X = 1) = 0.5.
4. A discrete random variable X takes values 0, 2 and 4, with P (X = 0) = P (X = 4). Which one
of the following must be true?
E(X2 ) = Var(X) + 2.
E(X2 ) = Var(X) + 4.
E(X2 ) = Var(X).
E(X2 ) = Var(X) + 16.
5. Let X and Y be independent random variables with Var(Y) = 2 , and Var(X) = 2 2 . Put
X X
Y Y
V =
and W =
. Which one of the following statements must be true?

Var(V) = 4Var(W).
Var(V) = 2Var(W).
The variances of V and W are 1.
Var(W) = 2.

6. Let Z N (0, 1), and put X = 2(2 + Z). Which one of the following statements is true?
X N (4, 1).
X N (4, 2).
X N (2, 2).
X N (4, 4).
7. Let Y N (0, 1) and Z N (0, 1), and let Cov(Y, Z) = 1. What is the distribution of
3Y 4Z + 1?
N (0, 13).
N (1, 49).
N (0, 25).
N (1, 25).
8. Let X Poi() with Var(X) = 4. Which of the following must be true?
E(X2 ) = 4
E(X2 ) = 8
E(X2 ) = 2.
E(X2 ) = 20.
9. The random variable X Bin(10000, 0.0004). Using a suitable approximation, the value of
P (X 2) is
0.1465
0.7619
0.2381
0.0916
10. The random variable X as a binomial distribution with n = 20 and P(X = 2) = 0.1369. What
is P(X > 4)?
0.2182
0.6296
0.3704
0.1958
11. Random variables X1 and X2 have equal variances 2 = 1. Also, Cov(X1 , X2 ) = 1. Put
Y1 = 2X2 X1 and Y2 = X1 + 2X2 . What is Cov(Y1 , Y2 )?
3.
1.
1.
0.
4

12. The random variable X has a U (0, a) distribution has P (X < 0.5) = 0.4. What is P(X < 1.1)?
0
0.8
1
0.88
13. Random variables X and Y satisfy E(XY) = E(X) E(Y). Which one of the following must be
true?
X and Y are independent.
E(X) = 0 or E(Y) = 0.
E(XY) = 0.
Var(X + Y) = Var(X) + Var(Y).
14. Let Z N(0, 1) and P(Z < k) = 1 a where 0.5 < a < 1. Which of the following is true?
P(Z > k) = 0.5 a
P(| Z |> k) = 2a.
P(| Z |> k) = 2(0.5 a).
P(| Z |> k) = 2 2a.
15. The random variable X has a symmetric distribution with P(X < 1) = P(X > 2). Further,
P(X > 3) = a. Which of the following is true?
P(| X 1.5 |> 1.5) = 1 2a.
P(| X 1.5 |> 1.5) = a.
P(| X 1.5 |> 1.5) = 2a.
P(| X 1.5 |> 1.5) = 1 a.

END OF SECTION ONE

Section 2 (70 marks)


1. (20 marks) IT Professionals (ITP) produces tablets with a warranty of 2 years. From historical
data that the company has maintained, the following is the probability distribution for the
number of months after sale that a tablet is returned with a hardware fault within the warranty
period.
x
3
pX (x) 0.1

6
0.2

9
0.2

12
0.3

18
0.1

24
0.1

(a) What is the probability that a tablet is returned with a hardware fault within a year?
(1 mark)
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(b) Find the mean and standard deviation of the the time for a tablet to be returned with a
hardware fault within the warranty period.
(4 marks)
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(c) Tablets that are have hardware faults within the warranty period are repaired with no
charge to the customer. Based on company data, the cost of repairs is as follows:
(i) a fixed cost of $25;
(ii) a variable cost (in dollars) that is two times the time (in months) after purchase that
the tablet is returned.
Let the random variable Y denote the cost of repairs to tablet returned within the warranty
period.
i. Write down an equation relating Y to the time after purchase that the tablet is
returned.
(2 marks)
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ii. What is the expected cost of repairs for a tablet under warranty?

(2 marks)

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iii. What is the standard deviation of the cost of repairs for a tablet under the warranty?
(2 marks)
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(d) ITP has produced a slight modification of the design of the tablet that will protect it from
hardware faults, giving the following distribution for the time after purchase for hardware
faults.
3
x
pX (x) 0.5

6
0.3

9
0.05

12
0.05

18
0.05

24
0.05

The modification will cost $5 per tablet.

i. What now is the expected cost of repairs for a tablet under warranty?

(4 marks)

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ii. What is the standard deviation of the cost of repairs for a tablet under warranty?
(3 marks)
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(e) Based on your calculations, do you recommend that ITP should proceed with the modification? Justifying your answer.
(2 marks)
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2. (12 marks) The number of items (S) sold of a product in the next month depends on the
price (X) as shown in the table below.
1000

1500

2000

$10

0.10

0.15

0.30

$15

0.15

0.00

0.10

$20

0.20

0.00

0.00

s
x

(a) Find the expected number of items sold in the next month.

(2 marks)

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(b) Find the expected number of items sold in the next month if the price is fixed at $10.
(4 marks)
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(c) Find the covariance between number of items sold next month and the price and interpret
it.
(4 marks)
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(d) What is the expected revenue from sales of this product in the next month?

(1 mark)

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(e) Are price and demand independent? Justify your answer.

(1 marks)

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3. (10 marks) The number of customers (X) that visit an upmarket mens clothing boutique
between 9 am and 10 am has a Poisson distribution with mean 4.
(a) What is the probability that no more than 5 customers visit the boutique between 9 am
and 10 am on a randomly selected day?
(2 marks)
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(b) If three customers arrive in the first fifteen minutes, what is the probability that the
boutique will have a total of more than 5 customers in the hour?
(4 marks)
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(c) What is the probability that in a week of five days, more than 5 customers visit the
boutique between 9 am and 10 am on at least one day?
(4 marks)
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4. (12 marks) The delay in flight time (T ) from Sydney to Perth is normally distributed with a
mean time of 5 minutes and a standard deviation of 15 minutes.
(a) What is the probability that a flight is delayed for more than 20 minutes?

(2 marks)

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(b) Assuming the flight delays from Sydney to Perth are independent, what is the probability
that only one flight out of five flights in a day is delayed by more than 20 minutes?
(2 marks)
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(c) If the flight is delayed then the airline has to pay a holding fee. The fee X depends on
the length of the delay, as given in the table below.
Delay T (minutes)
Fee X ($)

T < 0 0 < T < 30 T > 30


0
1000
3000

What is the mean fee paid by the airline per flight?

(5 marks)

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5. (9 marks) A common fault in machine woven cloth is called bar, when a band runs across
the full width of cloth. Quality control in a textile factory requires that the number of bars
per metre of cloth is no more than 0.03 on average. Assume the number of bars in a metre of
cloth has a Poisson distribution. A random sample of 100 one metre lengths of cloth reveals a
total of 6 faults. Let be the mean number of bars, and let the random variable X denote the
number of bars, in 100 metres of cloth.
(a) State the distribution of X.

(1 mark)

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(b) In terms of state the null and alternative hypotheses to answer the question: Is the
mean number of bars more than 3 per 100 metre length of cloth?
(2 marks)
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(c) Calculate the p-value of the test.

(2 marks)

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(d) Test the hypotheses at the 2.5% level of significance.

(2 marks)

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(e) Write a one sentence conclusion to the hypothesis test.

(2 marks)

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6. (9 marks) A bank aims to serve at least 90% of its customers within 5 minutes of joining the
queue. A simple random sample of 20 customers found that 6 of them had not been served
within 5 minutes. Let the random variable X denote the number of customers in the sample
who were served in time, and let p denote the proportion of customers who are served in time.
(a) State the distribution of X.

(1 marks)

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(b) In terms of p, state the null and alternative hypotheses to answer the question: Is the
proportion of customers who are served within 5 minutes less than 0.9?
(2 marks)
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(c) Calculate the p-value of the test.

(2 marks)

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(d) Test the hypotheses at the 2.5% level of significance.

(2 marks)

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(e) Write a one sentence conclusion to the hypothesis test.

(2 marks)

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END OF PAPER

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ROUGH WORKING

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