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# University of Western Australia

## School of Mathematics and Statistics

STAT1520, Semester 2 2013

Mid-semester Test
Student Number:
Family Name:
Use Block Letters

Given Name:
Use Block Letters
Mon 10 am ENCM:111 Andrew Hardegen
Mon 1 pm ELEC:151 Yanqi Qiu
Mon 2 pm ENCM:111 Eric Tsen
Tue 9 am ENCM:G23 Nur Izzati Mokak
Tue 11 am ENCM:G23 Aisyah Ishak
Wed 10 am ELEC:151 Soo Yue Yi Joyce
Wed 10 am CSSE:2.03 Yanqi Qiu
Wed 12 noon ENCM:111 Haree Thiruganam
Wed 1 pm ELEC:151 Andrew Hardegen
Wed 2 pm ENCM:111 Jeanine Lui
Thu 10 am ENCM:G23 Juwita Maritsa
Thu 12 noon ENCM:111 Hubert Heng
Fri 9 am CSSE:203 Jack Lee-Kopij
Fri 9 am ENCM:111 Parinaz Ezzati
Fri 11 am ENCM:G23 Dinuka Muhandiramge

Mon 2 pm ENCM:G23 Andrew Hardegen
Tue 9 am ENCM:111 Marco Susilo
Tue 2 pm CSSE:205 Oliver Yee
Wed 10 am ENCM:G23 Nur Izzati Mokak
Wed 10am ENCM:111 Haree Thiruganam
Wed 12 noon ENCM:G23 Nur Izzati Mokak
Wed 2 pm ENCM:G23 Michelle Trevenen
Thu 9 am ELEC:151 Aisyah Ishak
Thu 12 noon ENCM:G23 Jack Lee-Kopij
Thu 2 pm ENCM:111 Hubert Heng
Fri 9 am ENCM:G23 Dinuka Muhandiramge
Fri 11 am ENCM:111 Marco Susilo
Fri 2 pm ENCM:111 Parinaz Ezzati

1. This test counts for 15% of your final mark for STAT1520.
2. Total Marks = 100.
3. Attempt all questions.
4. Where appropriate, working with reasons should be given.
5. The last page has been left blank for rough working.

## Tables are attached to the back of the paper.

Time Limit: 90 minutes

Section 1 (30 marks) This section contains multiple choice questions. Each question is worth
2 marks.
1. A discrete random variable X takes values 1, 0 and 1, with pX (1) = 0.2, pX (1) = 0.2. What
is P(X = 0)?
0.
0.2.
0.4.
0.6.
2. A discrete random variable X takes only positive values, and P(X = 1) = 0.1, P(X = 2) = 0.3.
Which one of the following must be true?
P(X 3) = 0.6.
P(X 2) 0.6.
P(X > 3) 0.6.
P(X > 2) < 0.6.
3. A discrete random variable X takes values 1, 1 and 3, and E(X) = 1. Which one of the
following must be true?
P(X = 1) = P(X = 3).
P(X = 1) = P(X = 3).
P(X = 1) = P(X = 1).
P(X = 1) = 0.5.
4. A discrete random variable X takes values 0, 2 and 4, with P (X = 0) = P (X = 4). Which one
of the following must be true?
E(X2 ) = Var(X) + 2.
E(X2 ) = Var(X) + 4.
E(X2 ) = Var(X).
E(X2 ) = Var(X) + 16.
5. Let X and Y be independent random variables with Var(Y) = 2 , and Var(X) = 2 2 . Put
X X
Y Y
V =
and W =
. Which one of the following statements must be true?

Var(V) = 4Var(W).
Var(V) = 2Var(W).
The variances of V and W are 1.
Var(W) = 2.

6. Let Z N (0, 1), and put X = 2(2 + Z). Which one of the following statements is true?
X N (4, 1).
X N (4, 2).
X N (2, 2).
X N (4, 4).
7. Let Y N (0, 1) and Z N (0, 1), and let Cov(Y, Z) = 1. What is the distribution of
3Y 4Z + 1?
N (0, 13).
N (1, 49).
N (0, 25).
N (1, 25).
8. Let X Poi() with Var(X) = 4. Which of the following must be true?
E(X2 ) = 4
E(X2 ) = 8
E(X2 ) = 2.
E(X2 ) = 20.
9. The random variable X Bin(10000, 0.0004). Using a suitable approximation, the value of
P (X 2) is
0.1465
0.7619
0.2381
0.0916
10. The random variable X as a binomial distribution with n = 20 and P(X = 2) = 0.1369. What
is P(X > 4)?
0.2182
0.6296
0.3704
0.1958
11. Random variables X1 and X2 have equal variances 2 = 1. Also, Cov(X1 , X2 ) = 1. Put
Y1 = 2X2 X1 and Y2 = X1 + 2X2 . What is Cov(Y1 , Y2 )?
3.
1.
1.
0.
4

12. The random variable X has a U (0, a) distribution has P (X < 0.5) = 0.4. What is P(X < 1.1)?
0
0.8
1
0.88
13. Random variables X and Y satisfy E(XY) = E(X) E(Y). Which one of the following must be
true?
X and Y are independent.
E(X) = 0 or E(Y) = 0.
E(XY) = 0.
Var(X + Y) = Var(X) + Var(Y).
14. Let Z N(0, 1) and P(Z < k) = 1 a where 0.5 < a < 1. Which of the following is true?
P(Z > k) = 0.5 a
P(| Z |> k) = 2a.
P(| Z |> k) = 2(0.5 a).
P(| Z |> k) = 2 2a.
15. The random variable X has a symmetric distribution with P(X < 1) = P(X > 2). Further,
P(X > 3) = a. Which of the following is true?
P(| X 1.5 |> 1.5) = 1 2a.
P(| X 1.5 |> 1.5) = a.
P(| X 1.5 |> 1.5) = 2a.
P(| X 1.5 |> 1.5) = 1 a.

## Section 2 (70 marks)

1. (20 marks) IT Professionals (ITP) produces tablets with a warranty of 2 years. From historical
data that the company has maintained, the following is the probability distribution for the
number of months after sale that a tablet is returned with a hardware fault within the warranty
period.
x
3
pX (x) 0.1

6
0.2

9
0.2

12
0.3

18
0.1

24
0.1

(a) What is the probability that a tablet is returned with a hardware fault within a year?
(1 mark)
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(b) Find the mean and standard deviation of the the time for a tablet to be returned with a
hardware fault within the warranty period.
(4 marks)
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(c) Tablets that are have hardware faults within the warranty period are repaired with no
charge to the customer. Based on company data, the cost of repairs is as follows:
(i) a fixed cost of \$25;
(ii) a variable cost (in dollars) that is two times the time (in months) after purchase that
the tablet is returned.
Let the random variable Y denote the cost of repairs to tablet returned within the warranty
period.
i. Write down an equation relating Y to the time after purchase that the tablet is
returned.
(2 marks)
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ii. What is the expected cost of repairs for a tablet under warranty?

(2 marks)

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iii. What is the standard deviation of the cost of repairs for a tablet under the warranty?
(2 marks)
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(d) ITP has produced a slight modification of the design of the tablet that will protect it from
hardware faults, giving the following distribution for the time after purchase for hardware
faults.
3
x
pX (x) 0.5

6
0.3

9
0.05

12
0.05

18
0.05

24
0.05

## The modification will cost \$5 per tablet.

i. What now is the expected cost of repairs for a tablet under warranty?

(4 marks)

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ii. What is the standard deviation of the cost of repairs for a tablet under warranty?
(3 marks)
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(e) Based on your calculations, do you recommend that ITP should proceed with the modification? Justifying your answer.
(2 marks)
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2. (12 marks) The number of items (S) sold of a product in the next month depends on the
price (X) as shown in the table below.
1000

1500

2000

\$10

0.10

0.15

0.30

\$15

0.15

0.00

0.10

\$20

0.20

0.00

0.00

s
x

(a) Find the expected number of items sold in the next month.

(2 marks)

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(b) Find the expected number of items sold in the next month if the price is fixed at \$10.
(4 marks)
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(c) Find the covariance between number of items sold next month and the price and interpret
it.
(4 marks)
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(d) What is the expected revenue from sales of this product in the next month?

(1 mark)

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(1 marks)

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3. (10 marks) The number of customers (X) that visit an upmarket mens clothing boutique
between 9 am and 10 am has a Poisson distribution with mean 4.
(a) What is the probability that no more than 5 customers visit the boutique between 9 am
and 10 am on a randomly selected day?
(2 marks)
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(b) If three customers arrive in the first fifteen minutes, what is the probability that the
boutique will have a total of more than 5 customers in the hour?
(4 marks)
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(c) What is the probability that in a week of five days, more than 5 customers visit the
boutique between 9 am and 10 am on at least one day?
(4 marks)
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4. (12 marks) The delay in flight time (T ) from Sydney to Perth is normally distributed with a
mean time of 5 minutes and a standard deviation of 15 minutes.
(a) What is the probability that a flight is delayed for more than 20 minutes?

(2 marks)

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(b) Assuming the flight delays from Sydney to Perth are independent, what is the probability
that only one flight out of five flights in a day is delayed by more than 20 minutes?
(2 marks)
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(c) If the flight is delayed then the airline has to pay a holding fee. The fee X depends on
the length of the delay, as given in the table below.
Delay T (minutes)
Fee X (\$)

0
1000
3000

## What is the mean fee paid by the airline per flight?

(5 marks)

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5. (9 marks) A common fault in machine woven cloth is called bar, when a band runs across
the full width of cloth. Quality control in a textile factory requires that the number of bars
per metre of cloth is no more than 0.03 on average. Assume the number of bars in a metre of
cloth has a Poisson distribution. A random sample of 100 one metre lengths of cloth reveals a
total of 6 faults. Let be the mean number of bars, and let the random variable X denote the
number of bars, in 100 metres of cloth.
(a) State the distribution of X.

(1 mark)

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(b) In terms of state the null and alternative hypotheses to answer the question: Is the
mean number of bars more than 3 per 100 metre length of cloth?
(2 marks)
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## (c) Calculate the p-value of the test.

(2 marks)

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## (d) Test the hypotheses at the 2.5% level of significance.

(2 marks)

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## (e) Write a one sentence conclusion to the hypothesis test.

(2 marks)

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6. (9 marks) A bank aims to serve at least 90% of its customers within 5 minutes of joining the
queue. A simple random sample of 20 customers found that 6 of them had not been served
within 5 minutes. Let the random variable X denote the number of customers in the sample
who were served in time, and let p denote the proportion of customers who are served in time.
(a) State the distribution of X.

(1 marks)

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(b) In terms of p, state the null and alternative hypotheses to answer the question: Is the
proportion of customers who are served within 5 minutes less than 0.9?
(2 marks)
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## (c) Calculate the p-value of the test.

(2 marks)

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## (d) Test the hypotheses at the 2.5% level of significance.

(2 marks)

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## (e) Write a one sentence conclusion to the hypothesis test.

(2 marks)

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END OF PAPER

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ROUGH WORKING

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