Morning Call – 6/7/2010

Stone Street Advisors

ChiBondKing – laszlochi@gmail.com

Morning Focus
It was a sad Friday in SSA Chicago, with the dismal Friday jobs number setting the tone for the day. Later on, the Blackhawks lost
to Philadelphia which set a sour mood for the weekend. For the downtrodden fans, we can take solace that we did manage to win
Sunday evening – the same cannot be said about the ongoing European mess. Today is light on economic news, but glancing
quickly at the calendar, Bernanke is giving a speech at 7:30PM. Also, be aware of a closed door FOMC meeting to review rates this
morning at 11AM and this week’s issuance calendar (3/10/30Y, more details on pg. 2)

Asian markets overnight were hammered following the selloff in the US Friday. Here’s where we ended up across Asia: Australia -
2.78pct to 4325.90, Nikkei 225 -3.84pct to 9520.80, Shanghai -1.64pct to 3511.73, Hang Seng (HK) -2.03pct to 19378.15. JGB’s saw
active buyers overnight with the 8Y note leading the way in terms of active flow. In the JGB complex, years 5-10 saw most of the
drag in terms of yield, which spread to the European bond market where Gilts were seeing some decent flows in early London AM
trading. Pre-US open, bonds are losing a bit of their bid as equity indices rally ahead of the open a few hours away.

Notable Overnight Headlines

Asia
BOJ warns on public debt as the search for a new PM continues (Reuters)
Rocky Open in Asia: Major Technology Stocks Ask-Only As Nikkei Open Sharply Lower (DJ)
China Signals Easing: China money, loan growth to ease further in May (Reuters)
Japan likely finmin Noda: want fiscal reform path (Reuters)
Australia May Job Ads Up 4.3% On Month +21.7% y/y
Australia wheat exports fall 24 pct in April vs March (Reuters)
S Korea Rate decision due on Thursday, consensus expects rates to remain unchanged (Reuters)
JGB futures hit 2-yr high on US jobs, Europe woes (Reuters)
Indian bond yields at near 2-week low on U.S. data (Reuters)
Japan economy began recovery after hitting bottom in March 2009 (Kyodo)
Taiwan May exports up 58 pct y/y, beat forecasts (Reuters) – May CPI +0.74pct y/y
China c.bank to sell 25 bln yuan 1-year bills (Reuters)

Europe
3-Month Euro Libor Rises To 0.64750% Vs 0.64000% Friday (DJ)
Germany new 2010 borrowing seen 70 bln euros (Reuters)
Nakheel begins payment to small trade creditors (Reuters)
Hungary plans to launch flat family tax in 2011-TV2 (Reuters)
Next Resistance For June Bunds At 129.73 (DJ)
Bond futures hit record high as debt crisis (Reuters)
Europe corporate CDS wider after sharp equity market falls (Reuters)
UK gilts hit 2-week high in wake of U.S. payrolls (Reuters)
Hungary CDS ease 6 bps but stay near 1-yr highs (Reuters)
Turkey injects 3 bln lira in one-week repo (Reuters)
ECB’s Costa: Portugal’s banking system is solid (Reuters)
Hungarian 3Y bond +15 bps, 5/10s steady in a thin market (Reuters)
Germany to unveil cuts to welfare, jobs (AP)
U.K. reportedly to press ahead with bank tax (MarketWatch)
Cameron: UK's Economic Position Stronger Than Greece (DJ)
RUMOR: Hungary Ctrl Bk To Intervene If EUR/HUF Hits 290 (DJ)
Austrian lenders most exposed to Hungary (Reuters)
See Important Disclosures on page 7
 Let us buy ties!! -- Hermes says Jan-May sales growth outpaces Q1 (Reuters)

US Pre Open
Economic News

Retail Sales Weakening: Retailers' reports show tepid May for shoppers (AP)
Friday’s Dismal Jobs Number increases the cacophony of voices calling for a double dip (along with SSA’s Macro View
from May 2010)

Equities

BP – Reid: Oil Bill To Overhaul Federal Safety Standards (DJ)

BP - W.House: will tell BP to drill third well if needed (Reuters)
BA - Fitch Affirms Boeing's Ratings at 'A+/F1'; Outlook Remains Negative (DJ)

Interesting Morning Readings

For Many, The Recovery Means Lower Expectations:

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9G66U303&show_article=1
Mario Gabelli’s Star Power Starts To Fade:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704080104575286720178656264.html
2Y Treasuries And 3M LIBOR: Professor Pinch walks you through it all:
http://professorpinch.wordpress.com/2010/06/06/about-the-spread-between-2yr-treasuries-and-3mth-libor/
Eli Radke: Correlation and it’s deterioration: http://mytradingnet.com/blog/2010/06/03/correlation-its-
deterioration/

Notable Bond Market/Economic Events

Bond Auctions (1PM ET)
o 12 and 26 week Bills
Upcoming Bond Auctions (This Week)
o 6/8 – 3Y Note, 4wk Bill
o 6/9 – 10Y Note (Reopening)
o 6/10 – 30Y Bond (Reopening)
Economic Releases For Today
o 3:00PM – Consumer Credit
o 7:50PM – Japan Bank Lending
o 7:50PM – Japan Monetary Supply
o 7:55PM – Bernanke Speaks

See Important Disclosures on page 7

Market Summary – 7AM

Futures Currencies Fixed Income

Symbol Last Chg Symbol Last Chg Symbol Last Symbol Last
DOW 9955 9 EURUSD 1.1972 0.0002 2s5s 126 US2Y 0.74
SP500 1068.5 2.4 GBPUSD 1.4498 0.0046 2s10s 248 US5Y 2.00
NSDQ 1838.75 4.5 EURJPY 110.03 0.04 2s30s 342 US7Y 2.67
ZBM0 123'31 -0'13 USDCAD 1.0591 -0.0004 5s10s 122 US10Y 3.22
ZNM0 120'185 -0'050 USDJPY 91.91 0.02 5s30s 216 US30Y 4.16
ZFM0 117'040 -0'035 NZDUSD 0.6681 -0.002 10s30s 94 UK5Y 2.19
ZTM0 109'020 -0'020 UK10Y 3.51
CLN0 71.38 -0.13 UK30Y 4.28

See Important Disclosures on page 7

 Morning Call – 6/7/2010
Stone Street Advisors
ChiBondKing – laszlochi@gmail.com

Chartbook Monday, June 07, 2010

Condensed version of the chartbook this AM.

See Important Disclosures on page 7

See Important Disclosures on page 7
See Important Disclosures on page 7
 Morning Call – 6/7/2010
Stone Street Advisors
ChiBondKing – laszlochi@gmail.com

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