Causal Link between

Climate Change and

Human Influence
By a study of Population, Carbon dioxide emissions and Mean annual
temperatures of California, United States of America (1990-2012)

Hardik Rajpal (12PH20011)

Tanay Bansal (12PH20034)

What is it all about?

Recently the world was engaged in the climate change debate
concerning the influence of humans on it.
The opposition argued that the climate change is a natural phenomenon
and human influence has no significant impact on it.
In our study, we try to find a causal link between human influence (Emission
of greenhouse gases like Carbon dioxide) and rising average temperatures.
We choose the state of California for our study for two reasons,
a) Availability of abundant data from US Census, Berkley Earth and US
Energy Information Administration.

b)Wide temperature range through out the year.

The Project
The Project can be divided into four major parts:

Data Extraction: Here we collect data from all the

possible sources and filter the relevant data, that can be
used for modelling.
Modelling
Prediction

Analysis

Data: Temperature Trends (1840-2012)

Twenty Year Average Annual Mean

Temperature

Modelling of Data:
Generally the annual mean temperatures fluctuate a lot. So we take a 20
years average as we can see that it follows smoother curve.
We aim to model our temperature data such that it allows us to predict
temperature trends in the nearby future. For the same we choose to fit our
data points in the range of 1990-2012 our region of Interest.
We will also model the population growth in California from 1850-2012 and
work in the same region of interest.
Regarding CO2 emissions: we have data for net emissions per year. In order
to better understand its influence on temperatures, we need to take into
account the total CO2 levels in the atmosphere i.e cumulative emissions
every year.

Modelling: Temperature

Modelling: Population (Logistic Curve)

Modelling: Net Carbon dioxide Emissions

Modelled Equations for:

Temperature (T) vs Year (Y):

T= -2578.79 + 2.59*Y -0.000645*Y2 C

Population (P) vs Year (Y):

P = 46127100/(1 + EXP(-0.04362*(Y-1976.94792)))
CO2 (C) Levels vs Year (Y):

C = =-736161.53362 + (370.06291*Y) MMTCO2

Predictions: Correlation
A correlation coefficient is a coefficient that illustrates a quantitative
measure of some type of correlation and dependence, meaning statistical
relationships between two or more random variables or observed data
values.
Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient, also known as r, R, or
Pearson's r, a measure of the strength and direction of the linear
relationship between two variables that is defined as the
(sample) covariance of the variables divided by the product of their
(sample) standard deviations.
Gives a value between +1 and 1 inclusive, where 1 is total positive
correlation, 0 is no correlation, and 1 is total negative correlation

 The following 3D graph

between Population (X),
CO2 in Atmosphere (Y) and
Annual Mean Temperature
(Z), shows a strong
correlation as we see each
variable increases with
another.

This can also be realized

with the following values
obtained for correlation
coefficient:
Correl(X,Y) = 0.998148856
Correl(Y,Z) = 0.899434872
Correl(Z,X) = 0.924339719

Prediction: Observations

Hence, we see that there is a strong correlation between, human

population and carbon dioxide emissions and in together that itself is in
correlation with the rise in mean annual temperatures.
This concludes that climate change is not a stray/random/natural
phenomenon but is a result of direct influence of human activities.
Strong climate change measures are needed to restrict the emission of
greenhouse gases and hence prevent the further rising of global
temperatures.

Analysis: 3D Differential Equation

= 2 ()

=
= + 2
Eliminating t we get,

(
2

= + 2(

Where, k, a, b, c, d, p and are constants.

Analysis: Rate of change

Here Z axis represents, (Rate of
change of Population) and its
dependence can be seen
almost constant with Y (CO2
levels) and mostly varies with X
(Population).
The variation with Y is very slow
due to very small coefficient.
CO2 will affect rate of change
of population in only long run.

Although Population has strong

dependence on CO2 levels.

Analysis: Rate of change

We can see that rate of

change of temperature
varies very slightly with
Temperature, which is
only evident in long term.
Rate of change of Co2 is
almost constant with
time.

References
Berkeley Earth. (2016). About Berkeley Earth - Berkeley Earth. [online] Available at:
http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/california [Accessed Apr. 2016].

Division, U. (2016). Population Estimates: Historical Data - U.S Census Bureau.

[online] Census.gov. Available at:
https://www.census.gov/popest/data/historical/index.html [Accessed Apr. 2016].
Eia.gov. (2016). State-Level Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2000-2012.
[online] Available at: http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/analysis/
[Accessed Apr. 2016].
Wikipedia. (2016). Correlation function. [online] Available at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_function [Accessed Apr. 2016].