HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

June 07, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

66.978
94.047
1.135
1.446
107.710
67.078

Prev.
Close
67.260
93.902
1.136
1.444
107.560
67.209

Chg.
-0.282
0.145
0.000
0.002
0.150
-0.131

% Chg.
-0.42%
0.15%
-0.01%
0.15%
0.14%
-0.19%

GLOBAL INDICES
Prev.
Close

Close
SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8273.5
8201.1
26777.5
21212.8
16639.9
2928.2
2109.4
17920.3
4968.7
6273.4
4423.4
10121.1

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY
Segment

Chg.

8234.5
8220.8
26843.0
21030.2
16580.0
2934.1
2099.1
17807.1
4942.5
6209.6
4421.8
10103.3

39
-20
-66
183
60
-6
10
113
26
64
2
18

% Chg.
0.47%
-0.24%
-0.24%
0.87%
0.36%
-0.20%
0.49%
0.64%
0.53%
1.03%
0.04%
0.18%

3-Jun-16

Jun 16

EQUITY

1611.80

602.89

2577.35

DEBT

-754.83

-284.86

-2658.96

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

The Indian rupee on Monday strengthened past the 67-mark against the
US dollar first time in over two weeks. It was the third consecutive
session when the rupee closed higher. The weaker than expected job
numbers, raised hopes the Federal Reserve Bank may delay rate hike in
June meeting. The forex market could remain volatile on an event
heavy week.
The home currency closed at 66.98a level last seen on 18 May, up
0.42% from its previous close of 67.26. The rupee opened at 66.91 per
US dollar and touched a high of 66.86 a dollar, a level last seen on 17
May. Meanwhile, Indias 10-year bond yield closed at 7.473%, as
compared with its Fridays close of 7.489%.
Today, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its bi-monthly
policy and it is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged as it
awaits clarity on a host of uncertainties dotting the domestic and global
landscape.
The government will issue Index of Industrial production data on 10
June for the month of May. In April, IIP growth was at 0.1%
On overseas bourse, non-deliverable one month forward USDINR is
quoting 13 paise lower from previous close suggesting weaker opening
of the pair at domestic exchanges. Technically, the bias for the pair
remains bearish amid breach of short term moving averages and
oscillators turning weaker. Also, the volatility would spook ahead of the
series of economic data from domestic and international front.
Dollar Stumbles near 4-Week Lows as Yellen Sounds Cautious Note

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

06-Jun-16

Rupee Expected to Open Higher Ahead of RBI Policy Meeting

The dollar hovered close to four-week lows against a basket of

currencies on Tuesday. In a closely watched speech that may set the
tone for next week's rate-setting meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Janet
Yellen expressed renewed concerns about the health of the U.S. jobs
market.

 After the economy generated just 38,000 jobs in May, "recent signs of a slowdown in job creation bear close watching," Yellen said.
Still, Yellen expects the economy will continue to improve, allowing for "gradual" rate hikes at an unspecified time. "If the May labor
report was an aberration or reflects a temporary slowdown resulting from the weakness in economic activity at the start of the year, then
job growth should pick up and support further gains in income.
While Yellen remained upbeat about the overall U.S. economic outlook and said the Fed would hike interest rate hikes, she gave no fresh
hints about timing for rate hike.
The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of six major rivals, nudged up 0.1% to 93.959, but it remained within
sight of its overnight low of 93.745, its weakest level since May 11.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

USDINR June Future Daily Chart

Short term support seen at 67.02

Yesterday, USDINR June Future pair

hit a low of 67.02 and bounced
thereafter to close at 67.23.

Positional resistance for the pair is

seen at 67.86, while support for the
same seen at 66.70 (200 DMA).

RSI on the daily chart has exited the

overbought
zone
with
negative
divergence, indicating weakness in
Dollar against rupee for short term.

Pair has closed below 20 DMA for the

first
time
since
27th
April
2016, indicating weakness.

Hedgers Perspective:
Importers: Importers are advised to hedge offshore liabilities in the range of 67 to 67.15.

Exporters: Exporters can wait for their short term receivables and hedge in the range of 68.00 to 68.15.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
JUNE Month

Last

Exp. Open*

Trend Bias for Today

Range

S2

S1

R1

R2

USDINR

67.24

67.09

Bearish

67.30-66.70

66.92

67.08

67.34

67.44

75.89

76.11

76.46

76.58

EURINR

76.33

76.25

Bearish

76.45-76.00

GBPINR

96.96

97.10

Bearish

97.45-96.65

96.21

96.59

97.27

97.57

JPYINR

62.71

62.40

Bullish

62.70-62.10

62.32

62.52

62.90

63.09

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.46

67.11

67.76

66.23

68.79

63.31

67.25

67.12

66.74

67.22

66.53

EURINR

75.60

74.54

77.01

74.54

77.49

68.74

75.33

75.48

75.44

74.93

73.83

GBPINR

98.84

96.80

99.21

95.60

105.28

93.34

97.29

97.45

96.26

96.36

98.20

JPYINR

61.95

60.30

62.99

59.45

62.99

50.84

61.62

61.30

61.00

60.02

57.39

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Open
Interest

Chg.

Volume

Chg.

SPOT USDINR

66.91

67.05

66.86

66.98

-0.28

--

--

--

--

USDINR JUNE FUT.

67.07

67.29

67.03

67.24

-0.31

1456273

35653

1166175

226032

SPOT EURINR

76.08

76.09

75.81

75.99

1.04

--

--

--

--

EURINR JUNE FUT.

76.06

76.36

76.01

76.33

0.98

54236

-1761

61429

11531

SPOT GBPINR

96.83

96.83

96.12

96.53

-0.45

--

--

--

--

GBPINR JUNE FUT.

97.20

97.20

96.52

96.96

-0.46

47180

4449

90330

33813

SPOT JPYINR

62.99

62.99

62.39

62.54

0.72

--

--

--

--

JPYINR JUNE FUT.

62.52

62.89

62.51

62.71

0.70

39877

4591

44369

20100

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

USDINR JUNE MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION

CALL
OI Chg.

205

286
207

191

200

226

300
250

296

350

173

Thousands

USDINR OI DISTRIBUTION

100
35
0

0
0

0
67.00

67.50

68.00

68.50
CALL

69.00

69.50

70.00

LTP

LTP

IV

Volume OI Chg.

331

4.04

1.2575

66.00

0.03

5.38

39204

-1479

5.82

1.0725

66.25

0.0525

5.31

21633

15032

901

1780

4.2

0.8

66.50

0.095

5.38

61259

9071

985

1114

5.49

0.665

66.75

0.165

5.57

18440

2301

119556 181398

5.28

0.4875

67.00

0.26

5.74 173262

33656

25194

5.52

0.365

67.25

0.375

5.8

15117

1525

-38223 219468

5.77

0.27

67.50

0.5275

6.04

76120

-18389

2994

48
0

0
0

10

17

16

11
2

15
6

13
31

50

IV

PUT

-10

5044

112

150

Volume

Strike
Price

24398

5.8

0.185

67.75

0.71

6.42

3614

-399

-9079 154194

6.09

0.135

68.00

0.9

6.62

5234

788

-3154

7967

6.34

0.0975

68.25

0.915

2.84

-53826 126345

6.51

0.0675

68.50

1.3325

7.33

36

TOTAL OI

1333060

PUT

901868

OI PUT CALL RATIO : 0.67

ECO. DATA TODAY

ECO. DATA RELEASED

Date Time

Country

Date Time

Country

06/07/2016 11:00

IN

RBI Repurchase Rate

07-Jun

6.50% 6.50%

06/06/2016 13:40

EC

Markit EZ Retail PMI

May

--

50.6

47.9

06/07/2016 11:00

IN

RBI Reverse Repo Rate

07-Jun

6.00% 6.00%

06/06/2016 14:00

EC

Sentix Investor Confi.

Jun

9.9

6.2

06/07/2016 11:00

IN

RBI Cash Reserve Ratio

07-Jun

4.00% 4.00%

06/07/2016 13:00

UK

Halifax House Prices MoM

May

0.30% -0.80%

06/07/2016 14:30

EC

GDP SA QoQ

1Q F

0.50% 0.50%

06/07/2016 14:30

EC

GDP SA YoY

1Q F

1.50% 1.50%

06/07/2016 18:00

US

Nonfarm Productivity

1Q F

-0.60% -1.00%

06/07/2016 19:30

US

IBD/TIPP Eco. Optimism

Event

Period Survey

Jun

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

48.4

Prior

48.7

Event

Period Survey Actual

Prior

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]