HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

June 08, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Prev.
Close
66.978
93.828
1.136
1.455
107.370
66.970

Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

66.776
93.731
1.137
1.454
106.940
66.903

Chg.
-0.201
-0.097
0.001
0.000
-0.430
-0.067

% Chg.
-0.30%
-0.10%
0.08%
-0.01%
-0.40%
-0.10%

GLOBAL INDICES
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SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8285.0
8266.5
27009.7
21230.5
16620.2
2915.0
2112.1
17938.3
4961.8
6284.5
4475.9
10287.7

8289.5
8201.1
26777.5
21328.2
16675.5
2936.0
2109.4
17920.3
4968.7
6273.4
4423.4
10121.1

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY
Segment

Chg.
-5
65
232
-98
-55
-21
3
18
-7
11
52
167

% Chg.
-0.05%
0.80%
0.87%
-0.46%
-0.33%
-0.72%
0.13%
0.10%
-0.14%
0.18%
1.19%
1.65%

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

07-Jun-16

06-Jun-16

Jun 16

EQUITY

65.66

1611.80

2043.01

DEBT

50.46

-754.83

-2608.50

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

USDINR: Bargain Buying Expected with Limited Upside

Extending the gains for the fourth straight day, Indian rupee ended at over
three-week high against dollar amid sustained selling of U.S. dollar by
banks and exporters. Further, smart rally in domestic equity market also
supported sentiment. Also, investors got support with the assurance of
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that it would provide dollar and rupee liquidity
if needed to prevent any disruption in the markets on the redemption of
foreign currency non-resident (FCNR) deposits.
The domestic currency closed at 66.78a level last seen on 13 May, up
0.30% from its previous close of 66.98. The rupee opened at 66.91 per US
dollar and touched a high of 66.72, a level last seen on 17 May.
Meanwhile, Indias 10-year bond yield closed at 7.483%, as compared with
its Mondays close of 7.473%.
On overseas bourses, USDINR one month forward has been trading near
yesterdays close of 67.06 indicating muted start at domestic exchange.
On hourly time frame, Spot USDINR has been oversold indicating short
covering near long term support of 200 SDMA placed at 66.72.
RBI takes a pause, worries remain on inflation front
The Reserve Bank of India took a pause and kept the key policy rates
unchanged in its second bi-monthly credit review as uncertainties continued
from the elevated price levels and gradual transmission process by the
banks. It reiterated its accommodative stance but reinforced the need of
supportive financial as well as the macro developments for any scope of the
next policy actions. The GDP and Inflation forecast for FY17 also retained
unchanged at 7.6% and 5.0% respectively, however the inching up of food
and commodity prices forced the RBI to keep the inflation under scanner.
In September 2013 when the rupee was under pressure, banks had raised
$25 billion through FCNR deposits and another $9 billion through foreign
currency borrowings and swapped the same with RBI. It is this $25 billion
chunk, most of which was linked to borrowed funds, that will be due
between September and November. While RBI said that it is prepared, it
acknowledged that volatility may emerge as some counterpartiesin this
case banksmay not be able to easily deliver on the dollars that they owe
to RBI.

Dollar Index wallows around four week low

A June U.S. rate hike is now out of the question and the focus is whether the Fed provides any hints of a July hike. There are no major
U.S. indicators until the Fed's policy meeting next week, and the dollar is likely to remain bearish until then. The Fed concludes a two-day
policy meeting on June 15. Technically, the buck is having support around 93 on weekly closing basis and previous week high of 95.96
would act as resistance going forward.
Euro zone growth revised back to 12-month high of 0.6 %
The euro zone economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2016, the highest rate for 12 months, supported by household spending and
private sector investment. In a second revision of its figures, Eurostat said that gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.6% from the
previous quarter and by 1.7% YoY as compared to its initial to its initial preliminary flash figures of 0.6% and 1.6% on April 29 and
subsequent downward cut in its flash estimate to 0.5% and 1.5% on May 5.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

USDINR June Future Daily Chart

200 SDMA Support Seen at 66.73

Yesterday,
USDINR
June
Future
broken double bottom support of
67.02 and closed at psychological level
of 67.

Positional resistance for the pair is

seen at 67.86, while support for the
same seen at 66.70 (200 DMA).

RSI on the daily chart has exited the

overbought
zone
with
negative
divergence, indicating weakness in
Dollar against rupee for short term.

Pair closed below 20 DMA for the

second consecutive session, indicating
weakness.

Near term bias remains bearish till it

closes above 67.86.

Hedgers Perspective:

Importers: Importers are advised to hedge offshore liabilities in the range of 66.70-66.90

Exporters: Exporters can wait for their short term receivables and hedge in the range of 68.00 to 68.15.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
JUNE Month

Last

Exp. Open*

Trend Bias for Today

Range

S2

S1

R1

R2

USDINR

67.00

67.00

Bearish

67.20-66.75

66.79

66.89

67.15

67.30

75.91

75.99

76.24

76.40

EURINR

76.08

76.25

Short Covering

76.50-76.05

GBPINR

97.72

97.60

Bearish

98.10-96.50

96.54

97.13

98.28

98.84

JPYINR

62.14

62.60

Bullish

62.75-62.35

61.85

61.99

62.36

62.58

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.46

67.11

67.76

66.23

68.79

63.31

67.15

67.12

66.75

67.22

66.54

EURINR

75.60

74.54

77.01

74.54

77.49

68.74

75.47

75.48

75.45

74.97

73.86

GBPINR

98.84

96.80

99.21

95.60

105.28

93.34

97.10

97.51

96.31

96.37

98.18

JPYINR

61.95

60.30

62.99

59.45

62.99

51.06

61.91

61.35

61.07

60.07

57.43

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Open
Interest

Chg.

Volume

Chg.

SPOT USDINR

66.91

66.94

66.72

66.78

-0.20

--

--

--

--

USDINR JUNE FUT.

67.17

67.19

66.94

67.00

-0.25

1628499

186921

1328948

162773

SPOT EURINR

75.98

76.04

75.74

75.76

-0.23

--

--

--

--

EURINR JUNE FUT.

76.26

76.32

76.07

76.08

-0.23

55896

1486

42308

-19121

SPOT GBPINR

96.89

97.96

96.78

97.39

0.86

--

--

--

--

GBPINR JUNE FUT.

97.12

98.25

97.10

97.72

0.76

41476

-5574

122537

32207

SPOT JPYINR

62.14

62.18

61.90

61.95

-0.59

--

--

--

--

JPYINR JUNE FUT.

62.36

62.43

62.07

62.14

-0.59

34807

-5005

29570

-14799

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

USDINR JUNE MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION

CALL
OI Chg.

89
10

15

16

10
2

19

15
29

14

29

45
0

9
0

66.50

67.00

67.50
CALL

68.00

68.50

69.00

LTP

LTP

IV

Volume OI Chg.

1035

2.96

1.025

66.00

0.045 5.33

62881

2506

0.0775 5.25

36196

21916

0.14 5.42 111070

14563

4.71

0.845

66.25

18951

4.53

0.635

66.50

548

2063

5.04 0.4875

66.75

5.07

0.345

67.00

0.2375 5.72

35950

4078

0.355 5.88 261997 109900

34598

5.37

0.25

67.25

0.5075 6.18

-2379 238237

5.58

0.175

67.50

0.6725

5.72 0.1175

67.75

0.875 6.76

3853

-446

-7961 155028

5.93

0.08

68.00

1.09 7.23

19671

-9997

-1038

6.08 0.0525

68.25

1.3175 7.79

102

6.28

68.50

1.59 9.39

108

-2

4159

31396
13525

-40612 145014
66.00

PUT

Strike
Price

1535

2382

100
50

IV

92027 226133

111

150

161

181

250
200

Volume

393

287

300

284
272

318
283

350

152

Thousands

USDINR OI DISTRIBUTION

1351622

0.035

11156

-2189

6.3 118559

65420

1150084

TOTAL OI
OI PUT CALL RATIO : 0.85

PUT

ECO. DATA TODAY

ECO. DATA RELEASED

Date Time

Country

06/08/2016 14:00

UK

Industrial Production YoY

Event

06/08/2016 14:00

UK

Mfg. Production YoY

06/08/2016 16:30

US

MBA Mortgage Applications

06/08/2016 19:30

UK

06/08/2016 19:30

US

Date Time

Country

Period Survey Actual

Prior

Apr

-0.40% -0.20%

06/07/2016 11:00

IN

RBI Repurchase Rate

07-Jun

6.50%

6.50%

6.50%

Apr

Period Survey

Prior

Event

-1.50% -1.90%

06/07/2016 11:00

IN

RBI Reverse Repo Rate

07-Jun

6.00%

6.00%

6.00%

03-Jun

-- -4.10%

06/07/2016 11:00

IN

RBI Cash Reserve Ratio

07-Jun

4.00%

4.00%

4.00%

NIESR GDP Estimate

May

-- 0.30%

06/07/2016 13:00

UK

Halifax House Prices MoM

May

0.30%

0.30% -0.80%

JOLTS Job Openings

Apr

06/07/2016 14:30

EC

GDP SA QoQ

1Q F

0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

06/07/2016 14:30

EC

GDP SA YoY

1Q F

1.50%

1.50%

1.50%

06/07/2016 18:00

US

Nonfarm Productivity

1Q F

06/07/2016 19:30

US

IBD/TIPP Eco. Optimism

48.4

48.2

48.7

06/08/2016 5:20

JN

GDP SA QoQ

1Q F

0.50%

0.50%

0.40%

06/08/2016 5:20

JN

GDP Annualized SA QoQ

1Q F

1.90%

1.90%

1.70%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

5675

5757

Jun

-0.60% -0.60% -1.00%

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]