HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

June 09, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

66.651
93.464
1.141
1.450
106.700
66.702

Prev.
Close
66.776
93.638
1.138
1.457
107.05
66.823

Chg.
-0.125
-0.174
0.003
-0.007
-0.350
-0.121

% Chg.
-0.19%
-0.19%
0.26%
-0.47%
-0.33%
-0.18%

GLOBAL INDICES
Prev.
Close

Close
SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8302.5
8273.1
27020.7
21297.9
16674.0
2927.2
2119.1
18005.1
4974.6
6301.5
4448.7
10217.0

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY
Segment

8284.0
8266.5
27009.7
21328.2
16830.9
2936.0
2112.1
17938.3
4961.8
6284.5
4475.9
10287.7

Chg.
19
7
11
-30
-157
-9
7
67
13
17
-27
-71

% Chg.
0.22%
0.08%
0.04%
-0.14%
-0.93%
-0.30%
0.33%
0.37%
0.26%
0.27%
-0.61%
-0.69%

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

08-Jun-16

07-Jun-16

Jun 16

EQUITY

544.71

65.66

3187.72

DEBT

-66.38

50.46

-2674.88

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Rupee at 4 Week High against US Dollar

Rupee continues gains against the US dollar for the fifth trading
session, the home currency yesterday firmed up by another 12 paise
to close at a 4-week high of 66.65 on sustained selling of the
American currency by banks and exporters amid persistent foreign
capital inflows. Also, weakness in dollar in the overseas market also
boosted the rupee value.
Sentiments got some support with the government pitching for a
ratings upgrade with global agency Fitch Ratings citing improvement
in macroeconomic conditions and its commitment to fiscal
consolidation. Fitch Ratings had in December affirmed India's 'BBB-'
rating with a stable outlook.
The home currency closed at 66.65a level last seen on 12 May, up
0.19% from its previous close of 66.78. The rupee opened at 66.78
per US dollar and touched a high of 66.62a level last seen on 12
May. In last five trading session, it accumulated 1.2% or 80 paise.
Meanwhile, Indias 10-year bond yield closed at 7.49%a level last
seen on 30 March, as compared with its Tuesdays close of 7.483%.
On overseas bourses, one month non deliverable forward USDINR is
quoting at slightly lower from yesterdays close indicating flat to
negative start for the pair. The bias for the pair remains bearish as it
has been in lower top bottom formation.
Dollar Falls versus Major Peers As June Interest Rate Hike
Waned
The dollar fell to a five-week low against a basket of currencies on
Wednesday as traders reduced bets of an imminent U.S. interest
rate increase following a poor jobs report and perceived dovish
comments from the Federal Reserve chief. Bloomberg Fed rate hike
probability for June came down to 0% from 28% before Fed Chair
statement and job data.
The dollar is down slightly against the Pound, Euro and the Japanese
Yen. On Wednesday, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback
against six currencies, shed 0.24% at 93.601. It touched 93.425
earlier on Wednesday, the lowest since May 6. The last the buck was
at 93.52 with minor loss.

U.K Industrial Output Expands Most in Almost 4 Years

U.K. Industrial production logged its fastest growth in almost four years in April largely driven by pharmaceutical sector. Industrial
output advanced by more-than-expected 2 % in April from March, when it grew 0.3%, data published by the Office for National Statistics
revealed Wednesday. Despite the surprising data, the British pound is actually moving lower against the dollar and euro following the
release. However, later on recovered and last the cable was at 1.4507 against US dollar.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR June Future Daily Chart

200 SDMA Support Seen at 66.73

USDINR June future continues downward journey for the fifth consecutive days in row.

It had broken support of 50 days moving average placed at 66.92.

Positional resistance for the pair is seen at 67.86, while support for the same seen at 66.70 (200 DMA).

RSI on the daily chart has exited the overbought zone with negative divergence, indicating weakness in Dollar against rupee for short
term.

Near term bias remains bearish till it closes above 67.86.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
JUNE Month

Last

Exp. Open*

Trend Bias for Today

Range

S2

S1

R1

R2

USDINR

66.86

66.81

Bearish

67.05-66.65

66.71

66.78

66.96

67.07

Consolidation

76.35-75.80

75.93

76.02

76.22

76.32

Bearish

97.50-96.70

96.89

97.12

97.57

97.79

Bullish

62.70-62.20

62.20

62.28

62.54

62.70

EURINR

76.12

GBPINR

76.18

97.34

JPYINR

97.00

62.37

62.50

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.46

67.11

67.76

66.23

68.79

63.31

66.99

67.13

66.75

67.22

66.56

EURINR

75.60

74.54

77.01

74.54

77.49

68.74

75.58

75.47

75.47

75.01

73.89

GBPINR

98.84

96.80

99.21

95.60

105.28

93.34

97.03

97.56

96.34

96.38

98.16

JPYINR

61.95

60.30

62.99

59.45

62.99

51.06

62.06

61.39

61.13

60.11

57.46

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Open
Interest

Chg.

Volume

Chg.

SPOT USDINR

66.78

66.82

66.62

66.65

-0.13

--

--

--

--

USDINR JUNE FUT.

66.99

67.00

66.82

66.86

-0.13

1773635

153729

1099261

-229687

SPOT EURINR

75.89

75.95

75.72

75.85

0.09

--

--

--

--

EURINR JUNE FUT.

76.17

76.22

76.03

76.12

0.03

56712

838

32790

-9518

SPOT GBPINR

97.19

97.25

96.84

97.03

-0.36

--

--

--

--

GBPINR JUNE FUT.

97.50

97.57

97.12

97.34

-0.37

46190

4719

75905

-46632

SPOT JPYINR

62.50

62.50

62.20

62.25

0.30

--

--

--

--

JPYINR JUNE FUT.

62.50

62.61

62.36

62.37

0.23

36918

2110

26711

-2859

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

USDINR JUNE MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION

CALL
OI Chg.

76
10

9
0

16

9
2

22

22
27

29
3

10

50
0

66.50

67.00

67.50
CALL

68.00

68.50

69.00

LTP

IV

Volume

OI Chg.

1983

2.04 0.8875

66.00

0.0425 4.89

60010

12339

4.87 0.7325

66.25

0.0775 4.82

24485

15568

119701 155630

3.97 0.4975

66.50

0.1475 5.01

99685

25252

4.29

0.35

66.75

0.25 5.23

15062

-777

4.79 0.2525

67.00

0.3875

5.5 115897

-15541

5431

4.97 0.1675

67.25

0.5625 5.94

3954

-1487

7585 132787

5.39

0.12

67.50

0.75 6.24

47415

-5232

3309

11564

5.56 0.0775

67.75

0.9875 7.25

2784

196

-24497 104938

5.99 0.0575

68.00

1.205 7.69

21080

1639

6.28

0.04

68.25

1.385 6.75

426

6.54 0.0275

68.50

1.6425 7.94

26

-443

41807

2575

-17146 111654
66.00

LTP

PUT

Strike
Price

1106

6633

60

100

IV

-107220 280139

144

134
137

150

Volume

1657

183

211

250

263

267

300

200

291
266

350

164

Thousands

USDINR OI DISTRIBUTION

1323180

1186569

TOTAL OI
OI PUT CALL RATIO : 0.89

PUT

ECO. DATA TODAY

ECO. DATA RELEASED

Date Time

Country

06/09/2016 14:00

UK

Trade Balance

Event

Period Survey

06/09/2016 18:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims

04-Jun

270k

06/09/2016 18:00

US

Continuing Claims

28-May

2171k

Apr

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Date Time

Country

06/08/2016 14:00

UK

Industrial Production YoY

Apr

-0.40%

1.60% -0.20%

267k

06/08/2016 14:00

UK

Mfg. Production YoY

Apr

-1.50%

0.80% -1.90%

2172k

06/08/2016 16:30

US

MBA Mortgage Application 03-Jun

--

9.30% -4.10%

06/08/2016 19:30

UK

NIESR GDP Estimate

May

--

0.50%

0.30%

06/08/2016 19:30

US

JOLTS Job Openings

Apr

5675

5788

5757

06/09/2016 07:00

CH

CPI YoY

May

2.20%

2.00%

2.30%

06/09/2016 07:00

CH

PPI YoY

May

Prior

-3700 -3830

Event

Period Survey Actual

Prior

-3.20% -2.80% -3.40%

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]