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Logistic Probit Regression

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Chelsea Moore

Goals

Example in Stata

Binary Outcome

Examples:

Yes/No

Success/Failure

y=1

attack, y* is the propensity for a heart attack.

Example 2: For the binary variable, in/out of the labor force, y*

is the propensity to be in the labor force.

= + +

1 if y *i >

yi =

0 if y *i

Where is the threshold

distribution of the errors,

In order to use maximum likelihood estimation

(ML), we need to make some assumption about

the distribution of the errors.

assumption about the distribution of the errors

Logit

=0

Probit

=

ln

(1 )

1 ( ) =

=0

Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)

Which to choose?

Preference for one over the other tends to vary by

discipline

Data: NLSY 97

(categorical variable of highest degree: 2-year

degree or lower versus BA and Advanced Degree)

Interpretation

Logistic Regression

Log odds

highest degree is a BA degree versus a 2-yr degree or less

increases the log odds of entering a STEM job by 0.477.

Interpretation

Logistic Regression

Log odds

highest degree is a BA degree versus a 2-year degree or

less increases the log odds by 0.477.

by exponentiating the coefficients: exp(0.477)=1.61

highest degree is a BA degree are 1.61 times more likely to

enter into a STEM occupation than those with a parent

who have a 2-year degree or less.

Interpretation

Probit Regression

Z-scores

highest degree is a BA degree versus a 2-year degree or

less increases the z-score by 0.263.

Researchers often report the marginal effect, which is the

change in y* for each unit change in x.

Comparison of Coefficients

Variable

Logistic Coefficient

Probit Coefficient

Ratio

.4771

.2627

1.8

Deg

.2015

1.8

models because the variance of the underlying

latent variable (y*) is not identified and can differ

across models.

Problem:

Predicted Probabilities

y*-standardized coefficients

increase in xk,, holding all other variables constant.

standard deviation increase in xk, holding all other variables

constant.

Marginal effects

all other variables constant

Model Fit for Logistic Regression in Stata

Likelihood Ratio

Wald test

test

Information Criterion (BIC)

lrtest

estat ic

fitstat

References

analysis. Vol. 423. Wiley-Interscience, 2007.

Long, J. Scott. Regression models for categorical and

limited dependent variables. Vol. 7. Sage, 1997.

Powers, D., and Y. Xie. "Statistical method for

categorical data analysis Academic Press." San

Deigo, CA (2000).

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