HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

June 28, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

67.945
96.096
1.105
1.332
102.090
68.362

Prev.
Close
67.969
96.433
1.098
1.317
101.69
68.404

Chg.
-0.024
-0.337
0.007
0.015
0.400
-0.042

% Chg.
-0.04%
-0.35%
0.64%
1.12%
0.39%
-0.06%

GLOBAL INDICES
Prev.
Close

Close

SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8067.5
8094.7
26403.0
20002.7
15259.0
2883.6
2000.5
17140.2
4594.4
5982.2
3984.7
9268.7

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY
Segment
EQUITY
DEBT

8080.0
8088.6
26397.7
20227.3
15309.2
2895.7
2037.4
17400.8
4708.0
6138.7
4106.7
9557.2

Chg.
-13
6
5
-225
-50
-12
-37
-261
-114
-156
-122
-289

% Chg.
-0.15%
0.08%
0.02%
-1.11%
-0.33%
-0.42%
-1.81%
-1.50%
-2.41%
-2.55%
-2.97%
-3.02%

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

27-Jun-16

24-Jun-16

Jun 16

-597.47

96.12

3628.53

-1101.74

-324.13

-8166.39

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Rupee Resilient against US Dollar

The Indian rupee recouped its intraday losses to close little changed
against the US dollar, after a choppy trading session, on dollar
selling by some public sector banks. Public sector banks were seen
selling dollars around 68 per dollar level, which sparked talks that
this could be at the behest of the Reserve Bank of India.
The home currency closed at 67.92, up 0.04% from its previous
close of 67.97. The local currency opened at 68.07 a dollar and
touched a high and a low of 67.81 and 68.07, respectively.
India's 10-year bond yield closed at 7.458%, compared with Friday's
close of 7.476%.
The one month non deliverable forward USDINR last quoted at
68.23 from yesterdays 68.37 at 5pm IST suggesting weak start at
domestic bourses. However, the recovery in domestic market and
expectation of foreign fund inflow would drag the pair lower.
Derivative data suggests the pair could settle around 68 in June
contract expiry today. Technically, spot USDINR is having resistance
at 68.15 and support at 67.70.
India May Form Rate Setting Monetary Panel before Aug. 9
The six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) that will be
charged with setting interest rates could be in place before August
9, when the next monetary policy announcement is due, with the
government announcing rules for the selection of its nominees to
the panel.
Pound fell as rating agencies downgraded U.K.
Ratings agencies Standard & Poor's and Fitch downgraded its
sovereign credit standing, judging last Friday's vote to leave the
European Union would hurt the economy. Pound was a shadow of its
former self at $1.3222, having skidded from highs near $1.5000 on
Friday. It fell as far as $1.3122 overnight, reaching a low not seen
since 1985. The euro also remained weak, last down 1.1% at
$1.0996 after hitting a session low of $1.0971. That session low
remained slightly above Friday's 3-1/2 month low of $1.0909. While
the Gold, USD and JPY have retained their safe haven status.

 Today, dollar declines vs almost all G-10 peers, with Dollar index down 0.4% to 96.160. The gauge climbed 3.2% in past two
days, most since 2008. USD/JPY now steady at 102.00 after falling as much as 0.4% earlier. Dollar and yen are seeing correction after
risk-off sentiment drove buying of these currencies.
Given Fed now faces even higher hurdle to raise rate, its unlikely to see one-way dollar buying. Additional BOJ easing in July is almost
a done deal, and the central bank should consider expanding stimulus even before scheduled meeting.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR July Future Daily Chart

Firm Trend with Middle Band Support 67.73

USDINR July future ended on flat after previous days sharp up move on Monday.

Strong support for the pair is seen at 66.72, which happened to be the middle band of Bollinger while recent top 68.60 can act as
resistance in near term.

Oscillators are suggesting strength in trend.

Near term bias for the pair remains upward with higher side expectation of 68.85.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
July Month

Last

Expected Range

S2

S1

R1

R2

USDINR

68.34

68.45-68.10

68.05

68.20

68.46

68.57

EURINR

75.27

75.80-75.30

74.94

75.10

75.53

75.80

GBPINR

90.44

92.10-91.00

89.21

89.82

91.54

92.65

JPYINR

67.24

67.25-66.70

66.25

66.74

67.74

68.25

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.34

66.98

68.22

66.55

68.79

63.31

67.63

67.23

66.96

67.21

66.71

EURINR

75.97

75.09

76.92

74.04

77.49

68.74

75.85

75.62

75.60

75.33

74.10

GBPINR

96.11

94.69

100.49

89.62

105.28

89.62

96.33

96.52

96.78

96.21

97.76

JPYINR

64.91

62.82

68.11

60.30

68.11

51.06

65.23

63.36

62.07

61.02

58.05

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Open
Interest

Chg.

Volume

Chg.

SPOT USDINR

68.07

68.07

67.81

67.95

-0.02

--

--

--

--

USDINR July FUT.

68.12

68.12

67.81

67.97

-0.01

1976832

-199715

2349185

-798332

SPOT EURINR

74.89

75.22

74.67

74.80

-0.40

--

--

--

--

EURINR July FUT.

75.07

75.22

74.75

74.87

-0.40

18694

-7369

71128

-111845

SPOT GBPINR

91.02

91.40

89.62

89.71

-3.53

--

--

--

--

GBPINR July FUT.

91.40

91.59

89.74

89.88

-3.30

29149

7748

206419

-515510

SPOT JPYINR

66.82

66.89

66.38

66.89

0.73

--

--

--

--

JPYINR July FUT.

67.14

67.14

66.36

66.87

0.44

24762

-12532

55835

-35728

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

USDINR JULY MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION

CALL
222

250

164

200
145
80
89

49
11
3

4
10

1
7

17
0

26

50

49

50

77

100

105

150

3
0

Thousands

USDINR OI DISTRIBUTION

0
66.00

66.50

67.00

67.50
CALL

68.00

68.50

69.00

Country

Volume

IV

LTP

PUT
LTP

IV

Volume OI Chg.

-110

793

5.01

1.7975

66.50

0.025

5.89

24368

-1794

84

155

3.33

1.565

66.75

0.04

5.83

2112

82

463

1761

5.74

1.39

67.00

0.0625

5.78

38730

13002

-31

138

4.8

1.135

67.25

0.1025

5.88

3554

957

-1812

9230

6.13

67.50

0.1625

6.05

30544

2397

138

723

5.45

0.775

67.75

0.24

6.19

9094

2492

17679

59109

6.29

0.6725

68.00

0.3375

6.32

81020

36453

4700

9065

6.39

0.54

68.25

0.46

6.52

3781

1837

-3957

61619

6.53

0.43

68.50

0.6

6.68

20246

11429

2495

3118

6.68

0.34

68.75

0.7775

7.1

79

18523

83931

6.73

0.26

69.00

0.915

6.75

1145

1091

TOTAL OI

1654684

1232002

OI PUT CALL RATIO : 0.65

PUT

ECO. DATA TODAY

Date Time

OI Chg.

Strike
Price

ECO. DATA RELEASED

Event

Period

Survey

Date Time

Prior

Country

Event

Period Survey Actual

8.50%

06/27/2016 19:15

US

Markit US Services PMI

Jun P

1.00%

0.80%

06/27/2016 19:15

US

Markit US Composite PMI

Jun P

2.00%

1.90%

06/27/2016 20:00

US

Dallas Fed Manf. Activity

Jun

1Q T

0.60%

0.60%

1Q T

2.10%

2.10%

Jun

93.5

92.6

Jun

-1

06/27 - 06/30

IN

Eight Infra. Industries

May

06/28/2016 18:00

US

GDP Annualized QoQ

1Q T

06/28/2016 18:00

US

Personal Consumption

1Q T

06/28/2016 18:00

US

GDP Price Index

06/28/2016 18:00

US

Core PCE QoQ

06/28/2016 19:30

US

Consumer Confi. Index

06/28/2016 19:30

US

Richmond Fed Mfg.Index

--

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Prior

52

51.3
51.2

50.9

-15

-18.3

-20.8

--

51.3

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com
Disclosure:
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compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]