HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

24 May, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

67.495
95.324
1.121
1.450
109.390
67.531

Prev.
Close
67.446
95.231
1.122
1.448
109.240
67.577

Chg.

% Chg.

0.049
0.093
-0.001
0.001
0.150
-0.046

0.07%
0.10%
-0.07%
0.08%
0.14%
-0.07%

GLOBAL INDICES
Prev.
Close

Close
SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

7730.0
7731.1
25230.4
19766.1
16543.4
2821.1
2048.0
17492.9
4765.8
6136.4
4325.1
9842.3

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY
Segment

7737.0
7749.7
25301.9
19809.0
16654.6
2843.6
2052.3
17500.9
4769.6
6156.3
4353.9
9916.0

Chg.

% Chg.

-7
-19
-72
-43
-111
-23
-4
-8
-4
-20
-29
-74

-0.09%
-0.24%
-0.28%
-0.22%
-0.67%
-0.79%
-0.21%
-0.05%
-0.08%
-0.32%
-0.66%
-0.74%

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

23-May-16

20-May-16

May Month

EQUITY

-692.28

319.86

526.33

DEBT

-565.63

-915.47

-5865.18

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

RUPEE ERASES EARLY GAINS ON FII OUTFLOWS

Indian rupee gave away its early gains and ended weaker against dollar on
Monday for the eighth consecutive session, after foreign funds continued to
liquidate their investment in debt market. Besides, fall in equity market for
the fourth day consecutive session, demand for dollar from banks and
importers also dampened the rupee sentiment.
The home currency closed at 67.50 - a level last seen on 2 March, down
0.07% from its previous close of 67.45. The rupee opened at 67.30 per US
dollar and touched a high and a low of 67.26 and 67.50, respectively. So far
this year, the rupee has weakened 2%.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have sold nearly $860 million in debt
over the last nine trading sessions and have been sellers on all but one
trading session over this period. So far this year, FIIs have remained net
sellers of Indian debt and have offloaded $903.14 million in domestic bonds.
Dollar Index Hovering Near Two Months High
The dollar is trading nearly flat against its major European rivals.
Meanwhile, the U.S. currency is losing ground against the Japanese Yen amid
risk aversion and retreat expectations that Japan will weaken the currency
after a fresh warning by the U.S. last week against intervention. The dollar
index is quoting with minor gains at 95.34, not too far from a two-month
high of 95.502 touched last week.
Eurozone Consumer Confidence Improved but PMI Signals Subdued
Growth
Eurozone consumer confidence improved for a second straight month and at
a faster-than-expected pace in May to its highest level in four
months, preliminary data from the European Commission showed Monday.
The flash consumer confidence index climbed to -7 from -9.3 in April.
Eurozone private sector growth weakened to the lowest level in more than a
year in May as improvements in Germany and France were offset by
softening of activity outside the big-two economies. The flash composite
output index fell unexpectedly to a 16-month low of 52.9 from 53 in
April, the results of the Purchasing Managers' Survey by Markit Economics
revealed Monday. The index was forecast to rise to 53.2. The dollar rose to a
high of $1.1186 against the Euro Monday, but has since retreated to around
$1.1210.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

USDINR MAY FUT. DAILY CHART

Buy on Dips; Up Trend Intact

USDINR
pair
closed
67.57, highest level since
March 2016.

at
2nd

For last two and half months pair

was trading in the range of 66.15
to 67 and now same has been
taken out on the upside.

200 DMA placed at 66.54 can act

as a positional support.

20 DMA crossed 50 DMA on the

upside.

Earlier resistance of 67 can act as a

support going forward.

RSI on the daily chart has turned

extremely overbought.

Overall trend of the USDINR pair is

bullish.
However,
due
to
overbought conditions, we advise
buying on Dips at 67.30-67.20
range
for
the
target
of
67.80, keeping stop loss at 66.88

Hedgers Perspective:

Importers: Importers are advised to hedge their short term imports by Buying June Month USDINR Futures.
Exporters: Exporters can wait for their short term receivables and hedge in the range of 68.00 to 68.15.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
Near Month

Last

Exp. Open*

Trend Bias for Today

Range

S2

S1

R1

R2

USDINR

67.57

67.65

Bullish/ Buy on Dips

67.80-67.30

67.22

67.40

67.66

67.76

75.47

75.64

75.90

75.99

EURINR

75.81

75.82

Short Covering

75.99-75.50

GBPINR

97.79

97.95

Bullish

98.20-97.70

97.38

97.59

98.04

98.28

JPYINR

61.79

61.88

Bullish

62.05-61.70

61.14

61.47

61.97

62.15

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.50

66.67

67.50

66.10

68.79

63.31

67.23

66.73

66.72

67.12

66.36

EURINR

75.80

75.31

77.01

74.69

77.49

68.74

75.62

75.81

75.23

74.64

73.58

GBPINR

98.67

95.71

98.67

93.95

105.28

93.34

97.72

96.86

95.68

96.28

98.45

JPYINR

61.52

60.85

62.84

59.45

62.84

50.84

61.24

61.44

60.60

59.56

57.03

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Open
Interest

Chg.

Volume

Chg.

SPOT USDINR

67.30

67.50

67.26

67.50

0.05

--

--

--

--

USDINR MAY FUT.

67.49

67.59

67.32

67.57

0.01

1734728

-19316

1016312

-696847

SPOT EURINR

75.69

75.71

75.44

75.69

0.01

--

--

--

--

EURINR MAY FUT.

75.75

75.83

75.57

75.81

-0.02

55068

-6715

45943

7778

SPOT GBPINR

97.91

97.98

97.53

97.70

-0.59

--

--

--

--

GBPINR MAY FUT.

97.99

98.08

97.63

97.79

-0.66

33325

-12952

85355

20084

SPOT JPYINR

61.44

61.67

61.25

61.63

0.51

--

--

--

--

JPYINR MAY FUT.

61.32

61.82

61.32

61.79

0.55

25410

338

33208

17258

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

USDINR MAY MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION

CALL
OI Chg.

359

400
284
256

350
300

163

0
0

11
0

29
3

42

73

25
38

17
1

24

67

100

114

121

114

150

50
0

66.00

66.50

IV

67.00

67.50
CALL

68.00

68.50

69.00

Strike
Price

LTP

PUT
LTP

IV

Volume OI Chg.

-730

816

8.82 1.5075

66.00

0.0025 9.64

2059 -1524

9.39 1.2925

66.25

0.0025 8.26

1892

162

1.09

66.50

0.0075 8.15 38531

1509

4673 10.06 0.8425

66.75

0.01 6.88 21849 -2598

-1700

152
157

200

Volume

-34543 44127 12.04

250
160

Thousands

USDINR OI DISTRIBUTION

-2771 35725

8.48

0.605

67.00

0.02 6.05299282 -1684

-2329 39294

6.68 0.3725

67.25

0.04 5.04155615 12557

32071171509

6.05

0.195

67.50

0.1275 5.32114912 -4222

24511104986

5.92

0.085

67.75

0.2525 4.47

4718

557

7434 78333

6.22

0.035

68.00

0.4625 4.39

4794

-476

1081

5297

6.15

0.01

68.25

0.725 7.45

-2

-2054

5505

6.92

0.005

68.50

1.0815.98

1368912

941899

TOTAL OI

PUT

OI PUT CALL RATIO : 0.69

ECO. DATA TODAY

ECO. DATA RELEASED

Date Time

Country

Event

Date Time

Country

05/24/2016 14:00

UK

Public Sector Net Borrowing

Apr

5.8b

4.2b

05/23/2016 05:20

JN

Trade Balance

05/24/2016 14:30

EC

ZEW Survey Expectations

May

--

21.5

05/23/2016 07:30

JN

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg

May P

--

47.6

48.2

05/24/2016 19:30

US

Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

May

14

05/23/2016 13:30

EC

Markit Euro zone Mfg. PMI

May P

51.9

51.5

51.7

05/24/2016 19:30

US

New Home Sales

Apr

521k

511k

May P

53.2

53.1

53.1

May P

53.2

52.9

53

Period Survey Prior

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Event

Markit Eurozone Services

PMI
Markit Eurozone
Composite PMI

Period Survey Actual

Apr

Prior

540.0b 823.5b 754.2b

05/23/2016 13:30

EC

05/23/2016 13:30

EC

05/23/2016 19:15

US

Markit US Mfg. PMI

May P

51

50.5

50.8

05/23/2016 19:30

EC

Consumer Confidence

May A

-9.0

-7.0

-9.3

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
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Disclosure:
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]