HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

June 03, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

67.290
95.568
1.115
1.440
108.890
67.568

Prev.
Close
67.454
95.564
1.115
1.442
108.870
67.581

Chg.
-0.164
0.004
0.000
-0.002
0.020
-0.013

% Chg.
-0.24%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.14%
0.02%
-0.02%

GLOBAL INDICES
Prev.
Close

Close
SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8266.5
8219.0
26843.1
20943.5
16590.0
2924.6
2105.3
17838.6
4971.4
6185.6
4466.0
10208.0

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY
Segment
EQUITY
DEBT

Chg.

8234.0
8180.0
26713.9
20859.2
16562.6
2925.2
2099.3
17789.7
4952.3
6191.9
4475.4
10204.4

33
39
129
84
27
-1
6
49
19
-6
-9
4

% Chg.
0.39%
0.48%
0.48%
0.40%
0.17%
-0.02%
0.28%
0.27%
0.39%
-0.10%
-0.21%
0.03%

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

2-Jun-16

1-Jun-16

Jun 16

343.53

19.13

362.66

-1385.79

-233.48

-1619.27

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Rupee Retrieves Previous Days Losses against U.S. Dollar

Rupee rebounded on Thursday paring most of the losses it occurred

in last session in a knee-jerk reaction to some reports that the RBI
governor was not seeking a second term. The domestic currency
rejoiced from the very beginning on account of dollar selling by
banks and exporters. The gain in other regional currencies too
supported the rupee after the dollar weakened ahead of the
employment figures from the US. The local equity markets too
turned higher in the late trade and boosted the case of foreign fund
inflow.
The home currency closed at 67.29, up 0.24% from its previous
close of 67.45. The rupee opened at 67.42 per US dollar and
touched a high of 67.21 in intraday trade. Indias 10-year bond yield
closed at 7.484%, as compared with its Wednesdays close of
7.488%.
The overseas bourses suggesting flat to positive start for the rupee.
The strength in domestic equity market could support rupee for the
day. The broader range for rupee today would be 67.10 to 67.40.
ECB Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged for a
second policy session in a row on Thursday, as policymakers hope
that the already announced stimulus measures will boost the euro
area growth and inflation in the coming months. President Mario
Draghi warned the risks to the euro area growth outlook remain
tilted to the downside.
The deposit rate was held steady at -0.40%, following a 10 basis
points reduction in March. The marginal lending facility rate was
kept at 0.25%, after a five basis point-cut in March.
The European Central Bank raised its euro area growth and inflation
forecasts for this year, while expressing concern over downside risks
such as "Brexit", and reiterated its willingness to act when needed.
The latest ECB Staff macroeconomic projections unveiled by ECB
President Mario Draghi in Vienna on Thursday showed an upward
revision in the Eurozone inflation forecast for this year to 0.2% from
0.1% seen in March.

 Inflation projections for next year and 2018 were retained at 1.3% and 1.6%, respectively. Also, the ECB raised the growth forecast for
this year to 1.6% from 1.4%. The projection for next year was retained at 1.7%.
The euro's decline kept the dollar index near a two-month peak, leaving it poised for a breakthrough should non-farm payrolls due later in
the day bolster expectations for an imminent hike in U.S. rates. The euro is hovering near a three-year low against the yen, today.
US Private Sector Growth in Line with Estimates

Payroll processor ADP released a report Thursday morning showing that private sector employment in the U.S. increased roughly in line
with economist estimates in the month of May. The report said private sector employment rose by 173,000 jobs in May after climbing by
an upwardly revised 166,000 jobs in April.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Short term support seen at 67.28

Yesterday, USDINR pair has formed

inside bar with pair closes 19 paise
down to 67.58.

20 DMA has given crossover above 50

DMA after a long time, indicating trend
reversal for medium term.

Higher Bottom formation on the daily

chart is not violated as of yet.

Previous top placed at 68.18 is a

immediate resistance, while 67.28 the bottom of 27th May, would act as
support.

Momentum oscillator, RSI of 14 days

periods heading lower suggesting
sluggishness.

USDINR June Future Daily Chart

Hedgers Perspective:
Importers: Importers are advised to hedge offshore liabilities in the range of 67 to 67.15.

Exporters: Exporters can wait for their short term receivables and hedge in the range of 68.00 to 68.15.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
JUNE Month

Last

Exp. Open*

Trend Bias for Today

Range

S2

S1

R1

R2

USDINR

67.58

67.53

Consolidation

67.70-67.30

67.29

67.53

67.91

68.04

Bearish

75.60-75.20

74.82

75.29

76.01

76.25

Bearish

97.70-96.80

97.31

97.56

98.13

98.45

Bearish

62.15-61.70

60.51

61.23

62.37

62.80

EURINR

75.72

GBPINR

75.45

97.68

JPYINR

97.30

61.99

61.99

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.76

66.95

67.76

66.23

68.79

63.31

67.24

67.06

66.73

67.20

66.50

EURINR

76.01

74.80

77.01

74.54

77.49

68.74

75.10

75.52

75.42

74.87

73.78

GBPINR

99.21

97.53

99.21

95.32

105.28

93.34

97.87

97.41

96.16

96.37

98.25

JPYINR

62.01

60.97

62.84

59.45

62.84

50.84

61.08

61.27

60.86

59.93

57.32

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Open
Interest

Chg.

Volume

Chg.

SPOT USDINR

67.42

67.42

67.21

67.29

-0.16

--

--

--

--

USDINR JUNE FUT.

67.68

67.72

67.49

67.58

-0.19

1427036

-20657

923672

-880535

SPOT EURINR

75.60

75.60

75.27

75.32

0.00

--

--

--

--

EURINR JUNE FUT.

76.00

76.00

75.65

75.72

-0.02

63579

-2790

43461

-29369

SPOT GBPINR

97.25

97.28

97.00

97.24

-0.10

--

--

--

--

GBPINR JUNE FUT.

97.65

97.72

97.43

97.68

-0.14

40652

3318

65208

-63376

SPOT JPYINR

61.92

61.95

61.54

61.72

0.20

--

--

--

--

JPYINR JUNE FUT.

62.10

62.10

61.76

61.99

0.05

34275

5436

36294

-29871

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

USDINR JUNE MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION

CALL

130
0

10

18

16

14
2

11
7

21
0

12

1
7

11

100

29

78

150

50

277

110
125

200

192

214

300
250

OI Chg.

288

320

350

150

Thousands

USDINR OI DISTRIBUTION

0
66.00

66.50

67.00

67.50
CALL

68.00

68.50

69.00

Volume

IV

Strike
Price

LTP

PUT

LTP

IV

Volume OI Chg.

-26

28

3.67

1.6125

66.00

0.02

5.54

13868

-4194

5.84

1.4175

66.25

0.04

5.69

-14

264

3.33

1.0625

66.50

0.0575

5.42

35426

5706

114

237

4.72

0.94

66.75

0.0975

5.47

10726

4535

-5866

16596

4.75

0.74

67.00

0.165

5.69

61862

-4990

-134

1102

5.12

0.585

67.25

0.26

5.95

18379

3491

16448

75852

5.23

0.4425

67.50

0.3675

6.04

53563

-3767

770

8065

5.61

0.345

67.75

0.52

6.44

2785

263

2791

132284

5.72

0.2525

68.00

0.6775

6.61

22742

-5748

184

5953

6.06

0.195

68.25

0.915

7.75

390

89

5628

103323

6.22

0.1425

68.50

1.0525

7.11

453

43

1338571

866247

TOTAL OI
OI PUT CALL RATIO : 0.65

PUT

ECO. DATA TODAY

ECO. DATA RELEASED

Date Time

Country

Event

--

53.7

06/02/2016 14:00

UK

Markit/CIPS UK Cons.PMI

May F

53.1

53.1

06/02/2016 14:30

EC

PPI YoY

May

52.5

52.3

06/02/2016 17:15

EC

ECB Main Refinance Rate

2-Jun

Apr

0.40% -0.50%

06/02/2016 17:15

EC

ECB Deposit Facility Rate

2-Jun

Trade Balance

Apr

-$41.0b -$40.4b

06/02/2016 17:15

EC

ECB Marginal Lending

2-Jun

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

US

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

May

160k

160k

06/02/2016 17:15

EC

ECB Asset Purchase Tgt

Jun

EU80b

EU80b

EU80b

06/03/2016 18:00

US

Unemployment Rate

May

4.90%

5.00%

06/03/2016 19:15

US

Markit US Services PMI

51.4

51.2

06/02/2016 17:45

US

ADP Employment Change

May

174k

173k

156k

06/03/2016 19:30

US

Factory Orders

1.90%

1.50%

06/02/2016 18:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims

28-May

270k

267k

268k

06/03/2016 19:30

US

Durable Goods Orders

--

3.40%

06/02/2016 18:00

US

Continuing Claims

21-May

2150k

2172k

2163k

Date Time

Country

06/03/2016 10:30

IN

Nikkei India PMI Services

Event

06/03/2016 13:30

EC

Markit Eurozone Service PMI

06/03/2016 14:00

UK

Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI

06/03/2016 14:30

EC

Retail Sales MoM

06/03/2016 18:00

US

06/03/2016 18:00

Period Survey
May

May F
Apr
Apr F

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Prior

Period Survey Actual

May
Apr

52

51.2

Prior
52

-4.10% -4.40% -4.20%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

-0.40% -0.40% -0.40%

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com
Disclosure:
I/We, Dilip Parmar and Vinay Rajani, MBA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer (s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any position in Instruments NO
Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information
obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or
correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not
intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.
This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other
jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HDFC Securities Ltd or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement
within such jurisdiction.
If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or
published for any purposes without prior written approval of HDFC Securities Ltd.
Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in
securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.
It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HDFC Securities Ltd may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this
mail and/or its attachments.
HDFC Securities and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be
engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or
lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.
HDFC Securities Ltd, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this
report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.
HDFC Securities Ltd and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or
other deals in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report.
HDFC Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve
months.
HDFC Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing
or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business.
HDFC Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HDFC
Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or
brokerage service transactions. HDFC Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any
compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
This report has been prepared by the PCG team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may
be contrary with those of the other Research teams (Institutional, Retail) of HDFC Securities Ltd.
"HDFC Securities Ltd. is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]