33 270 163 1.

xls
Origi nal Exp Va l

Use mechanical method

80000
-120000

80000
0.5
Electronic success
150000

0.5
Awarded contract
2
250000

Try electronic method

-50000

0.5
Electronic failure

90000

90000

150000

30000
-120000

30000

0.7
Magnetic success
Prepare proposal
-50000

120000
Try magnetic method

-80000

0.3
Magnetic failure

120000

20000
84000

0
-120000
1

0.5
Not awarded contract

20000

-50000
0

-50000

Don't prepare proposal

0
0

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Origi nal Exp Va l

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Origi nal Exp Va l

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Origi nal Exp Va l

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Origi nal Exp Va l

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Origi nal Exp Va l

ID

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

Value

Prob
0

Pred
0
0
0

0
0
0

Kind
0 D
0 E
0 T
1 D
1 T
3 T
3 E
3 E
6 T
6 T
7 T
7 T

NS

S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0

S2
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
0
0
0

S3
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0

S4
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Col
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22

Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

33 270 163 1.xls

Formatted ExpVal

Use mechanical method

$80,000
-$120,000

$80,000
0.5
Electronic success
$150,000

0.5
Awarded contract
2
$250,000

Try electronic method

$0

-$50,000

0.5
Electronic failure

$90,000

$90,000

$150,000

$30,000
-$120,000

$30,000

0.7
Magnetic success
Prepare proposal
-$50,000

$120,000
Try magnetic method

$0

-$80,000

0.3
Magnetic failure

$120,000

$20,000
$84,000

$0
-$120,000
1

$0

0.5
Not awarded contract

$20,000

-$50,000
$0

-$50,000

Don't prepare proposal

$0
$0

Mike Mi ddl eton

$0

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Formatted ExpVal

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Formatted ExpVal

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Formatted ExpVal

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Formatted ExpVal

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Formatted ExpVal

ID

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

Value

Prob
0

Pred
0
0
0

0
0
0

Kind
0 D
0 E
0 T
1 D
1 T
3 T
3 E
3 E
6 T
6 T
7 T
7 T

NS

S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0

S2
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
0
0
0

S3
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0

S4
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Col
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22

Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

332701631.xls
Alternative ExpVal

Use mechanical method

$80,000
-$120,000
0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
0.5
Awarded contract

Try electronic method

$0

-$50,000

0.5
Electronic failure

Use mechanical method

$0

-$120,000

$250,000

$30,000

0.7
Magnetic success
Prepare proposal

$120,000
Try magnetic method

$0

-$80,000

0.3
Magnetic failure

Use mechanical method

$0

-$120,000

-$50,000

$0

0.5
Not awarded contract
-$50,000
$0

Don't prepare proposal

$0
$0

Mike Middleton

www.DecisionToolworks.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Ri sk U ti lity Unsca led
Label in cell on left is the
defined name of cell on right.

Use mechanical method

$80,000
-$120,000

$80,000
0.41335

RT

$150,000

0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
0.5
Awarded contract
1
$250,000

Try electronic method

$0

-$50,000

0.5
Electronic failure

$80,000
0.41335

$78,307
0.40669

$150,000
0.63212

$30,000
-$120,000
$30,000
0.18127
0.7
Magnetic success

Prepare proposal
-$50,000

$120,000

$1,337
0.00887

Try magnetic method

$0

-$80,000

0.3
Magnetic failure

$73,035
0.38547

$120,000
0.55067

$0
-$120,000
1

$0
0.00000

0.5
Not awarded contract

$1,337
0.00887

-$50,000
$0

-$50,000
-0.39561

Don't prepare proposal

$0
$0

Mike Mi ddl eton

$0
0.00000

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Ri sk U ti lity Unsca led

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Ri sk U ti lity Unsca led

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Ri sk U ti lity Unsca led

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Ri sk U ti lity Unsca led

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Ri sk U ti lity Unsca led

ID

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

Value

Prob
0

Pred
0
0
0

0
0
0

Kind
0 D
0 E
0 T
1 D
1 T
3 T
3 E
3 E
6 T
6 T
7 T
7 T

NS

S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0

S2
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
0
0
0

S3
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0

S4
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Col
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22

Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

33 270 163 1.xls

Ri sk U ti lity Scale d

$80,000
$80,000
0.78714
0.5
Electronic success

RT

$150,000

Low
High

-$50,000
$150,000

$150,000

1
$250,000

Try electronic method

$0

-$50,000

0.5
Electronic failure

$80,000
0.78714

$78,307
0.78066

$150,000
1.00000

A
B

U(Low) = 0.0
U(High) = 1.0

Value
Risk Utility
-$50,000
0.00000
-$45,000
0.04452
-$40,000
0.08758
-$35,000
0.12923
-$30,000
0.16951
-$25,000
0.20847
-$20,000
0.24616

1.35795
0.97302

-$15,000
-$10,000
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
$70,000
$75,000
$80,000
$85,000
$90,000
$95,000
$100,000
$105,000
$110,000
$115,000
$120,000
$125,000
$130,000
$135,000
$140,000
$145,000
$150,000

$30,000
-$120,000
$30,000
0.56131
0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000

$1,337
0.39357

Try magnetic method

$0

-$80,000

0.3
Magnetic failure

$73,035
0.76000

$120,000
0.92075

$0
-$120,000
1

$0
0.38494

0.5
Not awarded contract

$1,337
0.39357

-$50,000
$0

-$50,000
0.00000

Don't prepare proposal

$0
$0

Mike Mi ddl eton

$0
0.38494

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

0.28260
0.31786
0.35196
0.38494
0.41684
0.44769
0.47753
0.50640
0.53431
0.56131
0.58743
0.61269
0.63712
0.66076
0.68361
0.70572
0.72710
0.74779
0.76779
0.78714
0.80585
0.82395
0.84146
0.85839
0.87477
0.89061
0.90593
0.92075
0.93508
0.94894
0.96235
0.97532
0.98787
1.00000

D riveTek Risk Utility Fu nctio n

1.000 00
0.900 00
0.800 00
Utility or Ex pecte d Utility, U(x)

Label in cell on left is the

defined name of cell on right.

Use mechanical method

-$120,000

0.5
Awarded contract

Prepare proposal
-$50,000

0.700 00
0.600 00
0.500 00
0.400 00
0.300 00
0.200 00
0.100 00
0.000 00
-$50,000

$0

$ 50,000
Va lue or C erta in Equivale nt, x

$100,000

$150,000

33 270 163 1.xls

Ri sk U ti lity Scale d

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Ri sk U ti lity Scale d

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Ri sk U ti lity Scale d

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Ri sk U ti lity Scale d

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

33 270 163 1.xls

Ri sk U ti lity Scale d

ID

Mike Mi ddl eton

w ww.Deci sion Tool works.com

Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

Value

Prob
0

Pred
0
0
0

0
0
0

Kind
0 D
0 E
0 T
1 D
1 T
3 T
3 E
3 E
6 T
6 T
7 T
7 T

NS

S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0

S2
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
0
0
0

S3
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0

S4
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Col
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22

Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1