Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Fisheries Research
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a r t i c l e
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Article history:
Received 29 September 2010
Received in revised form 28 April 2011
Accepted 5 May 2011
Keywords:
Coastal sheries
Climate
Geographic variability
Queensland
a b s t r a c t
The notion that climate change may impact coastal sh production suggests a need to understand how
climate variables may inuence sh catch on a broad scale. The natural variability of freshwater ows, as a
result of variable rainfall, has been shown to affect catch, as low levels reduce nutrient input, physical cues
for reproduction, and access to nursery habitats. We used sh catch data, coastal sea surface temperature
(SST), rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from 1988 to 2004 for eight distinct climatic
regions along the coast of Queensland, Australia, to investigate the relationships between catch and
climate parameters and variation between regions. Sea surface temperatures and rainfall were positively
correlated with the catch of seven coastal commercial sheries species but the relationship varied strongly
between species and regions, thus indicating possible differences between sheries stocks in responding
to future changes in temperature and rainfall. A forward stepwise regression model that included a
measure of rainfall, SST and SOI explained between 30% and 70% of the variance in catch adjusted for
effort for the same year for barramundi (Lates calcarifer), mud crabs (Scylla serrata), mullet (e.g. Mugil
cephalus), athead (e.g. Platycephalus fuscus), whiting (Sillago spp.), tiger prawns (Penaeus monodon, P.
semisulcatus) and endeavour prawns (Metapenaeus endeavouri, M. ensis). Given that the inuence of these
climate parameters varies with geographic regions, future catch prediction models should incorporate
geographic variation of the relationship between sh catch and climate.
2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Attempts have been made to link sh catch with oceanographic
and climatic variability (Andrade and Garcia, 1999; Zeeberg et al.,
2008). Temperature and freshwater ow have been reported to
play a major role in the life cycles of many coastal sh species on
the east coast of Australia (Blaber and Blaber, 1980; Gillson et al.,
2009). In general, warm water temperature can be seen as a proxy
for productivity, increasing the primary production (Liston et al.,
1992) and metabolic activity in sh by up to 10% for every 1 C rise
in temperature. The increase of metabolic activity is species specic and species that can tolerate or prefer higher temperatures
are likely to benet from warming (Poertner et al., 2001), whereas
species that have narrow temperature tolerance limits, e.g. some
prawn (Penaeidae) and sh species (Beaugrand et al., 2003; Harley
et al., 2006) will be negatively affected. Studies in African estuaries
demonstrated temperature effects on temperate sh assemblages
(Whiteld, 2005) but these are less distinct in tropical and subtropical regions.
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: j.meynecke@grifth.edu.au (J.-O. Meynecke).
0165-7836/$ see front matter 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.shres.2011.05.004
Proposed mechanisms for the connection between estuarineassociated shery catch, temperature and rainfall include: (1)
trophic linkages changes to primary or secondary production;
(2) changes in distribution as a consequence of altered preferred
water temperature and salinity and with it, changes of catchability
(Loneragan and Bunn, 1999); and (3) changes in population dynamics such as recruitment, growth, survival, abundance, assemblages
and migration behaviour as well as cohort or year-class strength
366
Table 1
Selected coastal regions in Queensland and their characteristics for the time period 19882004. NP, North Peninsula; SP, South Peninsula; LC, Lower Carpentaria; HNC,
Herbert North Coast; ECC, East Central Coast; PSC, Port Curtis South Coast; MSC, Moreton South Coast, BNC, Barron North Coast.
Region
Central
degrees S
Bioregion
Catch
Total area
(km2 )
Total river
length (km)
Mean annual
SST ( C)
Mean max.
SST ( C)
Mean annual
rainfall (mm)
LC
NP
SP
BNC
HNC
ECC
PC
MSC
17.34
12.50
14.10
16.30
18.20
19.55
24.24
26.32
Gulf Plains
Cape York Peninsula
Cape York Peninsula
Wet Tropics
Wet Tropics
Central
South-East Queensland
South-East Queensland
6987
10 426
26 520
9812
6710
10 122
6019
58 102
248 884
85 014
5790
2340
3080
5913
5667
5297
17 729
5235
3919
1585
2313
2975
3905
3449
27.77
28.05
26.95
26.77
26.44
25.29
24.25
24.07
31.41
30.50
29.74
29.74
29.75
28.87
28.02
27.18
700
1423
1062
1503
1475
952
703
925
660
1328
993
1248
1204
757
488
641
Previous studies showed that rainfall and associated freshwater runoff inuence the catch of coastal sh species such as mullet
(e.g. Mugil cephalus), prawn species (e.g., Penaeus esculentus, P. plejebus) (Meynecke et al., 2006; Vance et al., 1998), barramundi (Lates
calcarifer) (Balston, 2009b) and dusky athead (Platycephalus fuscus) (Gillson et al., 2009). Studies in Australia were concentrated on
local regions like the Gulf of Carpentaria (Vance et al., 1998), southeast Queensland (Loneragan and Bunn, 1999), central Queensland
(Staunton-Smith et al., 2004) or central New South Wales (Growns
and James, 2005). Investigations on a larger geographic scale were
only undertaken for single species like barramundi (Balston, 2009a)
or for single environmental variables like rainfall (Meynecke et al.,
2006). Quantication of the inuence of multiple climatic indices
on a range of coastal sheries species in the form of regional comparisons along precipitation and temperature gradients has not
been undertaken to date. Beside the large geographic differences
in temperature, catch and biology of coastal sheries species in
Queensland it is possible to develop climatic indices capable of
improving sheries management. Given the expected disturbances
in rainfall and temperature patterns resulting from climate change,
better understanding of climate effects on sh catch is timely.
Here we analysed relationships between key climate variables
and sheries catch rates from eight coastal regions in Queensland,
eastern Australia. The objective was to determine the inuence
of climate variables on sheries landings using effort-adjusted
data from individual sheries. We (1) examined relationships
between climate variability measured by rainfall, nearshore sea
surface temperature (SST) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
values and the Queensland commercial sheries catch rates
from 1988 to 2004; (2) investigated climate variables that were
signicantly related to sheries catch rates; and (3) investigated if
the relationships vary along temperature and rainfall gradients by
cross-regional comparisons.
Fig. 1. Location of study sites showing eight coastal regions along the 7000 km coastline of Queensland and the spatial distribution of catch in kg/day during 19882004
for seven coastal sheries species per region as well as the catch in kg/day recorded
in 30 nautical mile grids (spatial resolution of recorded catch data).
367
Fig. 2. Time series plots of monthly key environmental data (average rainfall, sea surface temperature and SOI) for eight coastal regions in Queensland, Australia. NP, North
Peninsula; SP, South Peninsula; LC, Lower Carpentaria; HNC, Herbert North Coast; ECC, East Central Coast; PSC, Port Curtis South Coast; MSC, Moreton South Coast, BNC,
Barron North Coast.
368
Table 2
Major coastal sh species or species groups selected for analysing the relationship
between catch data and climate parameters. Criteria for species selection were that
the species should/are (1) have relative constant and high market value; (2) estuaryassociated; and (3) common throughout Queensland (Yearsley et al., 1999).
Common name and
sh catch class
Dominant taxa
Barramundi
Mud Crab
Dusky Flathead
Mullet
Lates calcarifer
Scylla serrata
Platycephalus fuscus
Liza vaigiensis, L. subviridis, L. argentea, Valamugil
georgii, Valamugil seheli, Mugil cephalus, Trachystoma
petardi, Mugilidae
Metapenaeus endeavouri, M. ensis
Penaeus monodon, P. semisulcatus
Sillago ciliata, S. analis, S. maculata, S. burrus, S.
ingenuua, S. sihama, S. robusta, Sillaginidae spp.
Endeavour Prawns
Tiger Prawns
Whiting
n
i xi,t + et
i=0
369
Fig. 3. Positive Pearson correlation values in eight coastal regions for relationships between CAE (catch adjusted for effort) from seven coastal sheries species and average
wet season rainfall and SST data for the period 19882004. Values r > 0.30 are signicant at the P < 0.05 level and values r > 0.50 at the P < 0.01 level (n = 17).
370
Table 3
Signicant stepwise multiple regression models that correspond with the biology of the species for annual (a), one-year lagged (b) and two-year lagged (c) CAE (catch adjusted
for effort) and seven climate variables from eight coastal regions. Fisheries parameters and climate variables were from monthly time series. Max indicates the highest SST
per year. NP, North Peninsula; SP, South Peninsula; LC, Lower Carpentaria; HNC, Herbert North Coast; ECC, East Central Coast; PSC, Port Curtis South Coast; MSC, Moreton
South Coast, BNC, Barron North Coast.
a
Species
System
Climatic parameter
Adj. r2
Barramundi
Barramundi
Barramundi
Barramundi
Barramundi
Barramundi
Barramundi
Mud crab
Mud crab
Mud crab
Flathead
Endeavour Prawns
Endeavour Prawns
Tiger Prawns
Tiger Prawns
Tiger Prawns
Tiger Prawns
Whiting
ECC
LC
PC
HNC
MSC
NP
SP
PC
HNC
MSC
MSC
ECC
HNC
ECC
MSC
NP
PC
PC
0.521*
0.241*
0.291*
0.370*
0.354*
0.432*
0.312**
0.284*
0.647** ,
0.428*
0.241*
0.384**
0.454*
0.503**
0.229*
0.471*
0.430**
0.654** ,
Species
System
Climatic parameter
Adj. r2
Flathead
Endeavour Prawns
Endeavour Prawns
Endeavour Prawns
Tiger Prawns
Tiger Prawns
Tiger Prawns
Whiting
Whiting
MSC
SP
BNC
NP
NP
MSC
PC
MSC
HNC
SOI NovApr
SOI
SOI MayOct + SOI + annual rain
Rain wet + SOI NovApr
SOI + rain wet + SST
SSTmax + SST + annual rain
Annual rain
SSTmax + annual rain
Rain wet + SOI + SST + SOI NovApr
0.389**
0.369*
0.309*
0.409**
0.732** ,
0.528**
0.415**
0.401**
0.767** ,
Species
System
Climatic parameter
Adj. r2
Barramundi
Barramundi
Barramundi
Barramundi
Barramundi
Mud crab
Mud crab
Mud crab
Flathead
Flathead
Mullet
Whiting
Whiting
NP
HNC
SP
PC
ECC
HNC
PC
ECC
PC
ECC
PC
HNC
MSC
0.713** ,
0.583*
0.578**
0.421**
0.597**
0.223*
0.443**
0.717** ,
0.295*
0.581**
0.251*
0.570**
0.308*
*
**
P < 0.05.
P < 0.01.
Bonferroni adj. P < 0.002.
3.3. Barramundi
3.4. Flathead
and HNC where similar and both included SOI values from May
to October and annual rainfall as the best predictors. The primary
factors that explained the highest proportion of variability in the
annual mud crab CAE in MSC were annual SST and SOI values. A
two-year lag of mud crab CAE resulted in signicant models for
three regions (HNC, PC, ECC), explaining between 22% and 71% of
the variation. For HNC, temperature provided the best predictor
whereas for PC and ECC wet season rainfall was the most relevant
factor explaining lagged mud crab CAE variation (Table 3ac and
Fig. 4).
371
Fig. 4. Example of linear regression between climate variables and sheries CAE. The best t for the same year and for a one or two year lag is shown for each species. Rainfall
in mm and sea surface temperature in C has been log-transformed.
372
Fig. 4. (Continued ).
our prawn CAE variations from the northern regions were best
explained by SOI values or wet season rainfall while southern
endeavour prawn CAE variations were best explained by annual
rainfall.
Four signicant models could explain from 23% to 50% of the
variation in the annual tiger prawn CAE for ECC, MSC, PC and NP. For
the ECC, PC and MSC regions, SST was the most important predictor.
For the NP region, high temperatures and SOI values contributed
most to the model. When lagged by one year, signicant r2 values
were recorded for NP (r2 = 0.73, P < 0.01), MSC (r2 = 0.52, P < 0.01)
and PC (r2 = 0.42, P < 0.01) (Table 3ac and Fig. 4).
3.7. Whiting and mullet
A signicant model based on high water temperatures, SOI
and wet season rainfall for whiting CAE was found for PC. A
one and two-year lag of whiting CAE revealed signicant models
in MSC and HNC based on annual rainfall, high water temperatures and SOI (one-year lag: HNC r2 = 0.77, P < 0.01; MSC r2 = 0.40,
P < 0.01; two-year lag: HNC r2 = 0.57, P < 0.01; MSC r2 = 0.31,
P < 0.05).
A two-year lag for mullet CAE showed SST may explain 25% of
the mullet CAE variation in PC (Table 3ac and Fig. 4).
Fig. 5. nMDS plot showing the eight coastal regions falling into three distinct
regional groups (southeast Queensland, central and northern Queensland) and the
distribution of temperature (a) and rainfall (b) correlations with catch. Size of the
circles indicates the strength of the correlation between the climate variables and
total annual CAE from seven coastal sheries species.
373
374
5. Conclusion
Coastal sheries are inuenced by variation in temperature
and rainfall via impacts on recruitment and catchability affecting
catch rates. Temperature may regulate sheries catch rates by
stimulating growth rates, primary productivity and higher activity.
Rainfall as an indicator of freshwater runoff stimulates migration
and schooling due to salinity uctuations. Regional differences
of climatic effects on sheries catch were particularly evident
between southeast Queensland, the tropical east coast and Gulf of
Carpentaria.
There is still a lack of understanding about some of the fundamental biological mechanisms behind the relationships detected,
e.g. the inuence of salinity trigger values on mud crab movement,
but these observations could formulate hypotheses for future work.
The fact that the relationship between catch and climate variables
is not consistent between regions (as previously assumed) is also
worth further attention, reiterating the importance of spatiallyexplicit management strategies for these sheries in the face of
climate change.
Warming and greater climate extremes predicted for Australia
(Hughes, 2003) can alter primary production, regional currents
and water quality, which may cause a change in sh migration,
abundance, growth and survival. This trend has consequences for
the catchability of commercial sh species and the quality or size
of the catch. Catch rates may then be reduced in certain areas and
shing pressure increased (e.g. increase of shing days and net
size) as a compensatory response, risking overexploitation and
economic loss. Studies about recruitment mechanisms and the
effect of climate factors on annual and seasonal catch can provide
crucial information for multispecies management and help predict
the long-term consequences of climate change (Myers, 1998).
There is the need for long-term studies which can provide further
insight into the relationships between climate variables and CAE
to better explain catch variability. Understanding how interactions
between climate variables and coastal sh species can have such a
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank Dr. Anthony Richardson (CSIRO)
and anonymous reviewers for helpful comments and revision.
Many thanks to the Queensland Primary Industries and Fisheries
Assessment and Monitoring Unit (Department of Employment,
Development & Innovation) for provision of sh catch data and to
the Bureau of Meteorology for access to temperature and rainfall
data.
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