THE MILITARY BALANCE 2015

GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS
As a result of the 2008 financial crisis, most NATO and
European countries conducted defence reviews that saw
significant force reductions. And though US forces still
constitute a formidable military capability in Europe, the
rebalance has seen troops in Europe reduced in favour of
the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific. But greatly increased
instability in North Africa and the Middle East, the
conflict in Ukraine and increasingly assertive behaviour
by Russian forces mean that Europes neighbourhood is
far less secure than in 2008.
The force reductions, redundancies, restructuring and
reforms required by the UKs 2010 SDSR are complete, as
is the withdrawal from a combat role in Afghanistan. A
new SDSR is due in 2015 but it is far from clear that the
current level of defence funding will continue after the
next general election.
Enhancements to military capabilities continue in the
Gulf. In the UAE, there has been significant investment
in armoured personnel carriers. Some of these are US
in origin but a substantial number are also indigenous,
emblematic of the UAEs developing domestic defence
industry. The UAE Air Force has flown missions against
ISIS. Upgrades to the combat-aircraft fleet have been much
discussed. The air forces three-aircraft A330MRTT fleet,
meanwhile, allows unprecedented capability to patrol
home skies and, combined with the C-130 and C-17 fleets,
The global submarine market has changed substantially since the end of the Cold War.
gives valuable
lift of
options.
The total number
operators has remained largely constant: 41 states operated

serviceable submarines in 1990, while 40 did so at the end of 2014, but this belies a shift
in conventional-submarine operators away from Europe towards Asia and the Middle
East. Similarly, the number of states with nuclear-powered submarines has uctuated

Changes in the global submarine market since 1990

4

6 10

4
34

1990
128
90

14

2015
77
59

DEFENCE ECONOMICS
After three years of real reductions, global defence
spending rose in 2014 (by 1.7%) for the first time since
2010. However, the geographical distribution of defence
spending is changing.
The reduction in the US base and OCO (overseas
contingency operations) budgets following the drawdowns
from Iraq and Afghanistan have meant that US spending
has dropped from some 47% of the global total in 2010
to around 38% in 2014. Meanwhile, real defence spending
in Europe also continues to decline in the aftermath of the
between ve and six over the period, depending on Indias naval inventory, but the
2008 offinancial
crisis
onhas
average
byassome
2%War
per
annum
number
nuclear-powered
submarines
fallen sharply
former Cold
eets
in Russia and the US have been reduced. Areas of growth have been air-independent
propulsion (AIP) submarines, and coastal or midget submarines, as countries such as
North Korea and Iran develop a more aordable submarine capability.

2015
79

12
144

12
20 2015

1990
321

45

92

NORTH AMERICA

63

13

1990
172

In Africa, Boko Harams advances in northern

Nigeria continued and the group extended its attacks to
neighbouring Cameroon and Niger. Nigerian forces were
often overmatched and regional armed forces from states
themselves threatened took military action including
Chad and Cameroon. Without adequate political/military
strategy and commitment by Nigerias government, the
area under insurgent control could well grow.
Regional states in Latin America stood up new security
agencies to address threats from organised crime and
insurgencies, while a number of regional states have also
sought to bolster rotary-wing aviation fleets and technical
surveillance systems also designed to bolster regional
capabilities to counter these threats.

21

42

Further
Assessments

59

26

114

EUROPE

RUSSIA AND EURASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND
NORTH AFRICA
3

16
1990
19 2015
26 23
36

Ballistic-missile submarine (SSBN/SSB)

Nuclear-powered submarine (SSN/SSGN)
Diesel-electric submarine (SSK/SSG)

AIP-fitted submarine
Coastal submarine (SSC)
Midget submarine (SSI/SSW)

ASIA

6 2 5

5 6
25

LATIN AMERICA
2

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
29

34

1990
36

2015
29

1990
3

2015
3

43

1990
176

11
163

2015
229
139

IISS

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05 FEBRUARY 2015
2014

THE MILITARY BALANCE 2015

Further Assessments ARUNDEL HOUSE, LONDON 11 FEBRUARY 2015
since 2010. By contrast, defence outlays are rising in many
emerging economies, particularly Asia, the Middle East
and Russia.
Nominal defence spending in Asia has increased by
more than a quarter since 2010. However, despite the large
absolute spending increases in Asia, percentage real-terms
increases in the region have averaged some 3.8% since 2010,
a rate lower than regional growth rates (which averaged
around 6.8% over the same period). In the Middle East
and North Africa, nominal defence spending is estimated
to have risen by almost two-thirds since 2010. Factoring
in exchange rate and inflationary effects, this equates to a
40% increase in real defence outlays over the period.
Real Russian defence spending increases have
averaged 10% in the three years to 2014, with a large
increase in funds allocated to finance Russias ambitious
State Armaments Programme. Maintaining this rate of
increase will be difficult given the deterioration in the
Russian economy due to poor economic fundamentals,
falling oil prices and economic sanctions; and will likely
require political prioritisation of defence while focusing
budget cuts on other government spending areas.

NAVAL AND MARITIME

Research and development was going into new platforms
for the US Navy, including unmanned systems, and plans
were emerging to address concerns levelled against the
LCS programme. This led, in late 2014, to the requirement
for a Small Surface Combatant, to be paired in a 52-strong
fleet with an LCS fleet retro-fitted with systems offering
improved survivability and lethality.
In the last five years the Chinese Peoples Liberation
Army Navy has commissioned more frigates and
destroyers than in any comparable period in its history. It
also now has fewer destroyer and frigate hulls in service
than at any point in the last decade, though the vessels
themselves have increased in size. The 61 hulls in service
in 2000 had less than 600 anti-ship and surface-to-air
missile tubes between them; the current fleet has almost
treble that number, with only 20% more hulls.
Russias navy continues to focus primarily on two
nuclear submarine projects: eight Borey-class SSBNs due
to be equipped with the troubled Bulava SLBM; and seven
Yasen-class multipurpose cruise-missile-equipped SSNs.
Additional classified special projects boats are planned.
It seems unlikely that these ambitious plans will be
implemented on schedule given the difficulties already
experienced in building 50 or so major surface warships,
and the time taken to complete submarines that have gone
into service in recent years.

LAND WARFARE
Numbers of land platforms in Europe have reduced
substantially since the mid-1990s. This reduction has been
driven by changing defence aspirations and procurement
plans, as well as financial considerations. Between 1995
and 2015, numbers of main battle tanks in Europe declined
from around 25,000 to just under 8,000. Over the same
period, armoured infantry fighting vehicles declined from
just over 11,000 to around 7,500.
Some observers of Chinas Peoples Liberation Army
have talked of brigadisation of the ground forces, but
this has not yet been totally realised. About 20 infantry
divisions and one armoured division remain both in the
18 group armies and as independent units. After these
reductions began, many divisions were downsized into
one brigade of the same type. Recently, all armoured
divisions bar the 6th in Beijing have transformed into
brigades.

MILITARY AEROSPACE
The coalition air-led campaign against ISIS underscores
both the utility and the limitations of air-power, but
suggestions the air campaign has failed are incorrect. An
air campaign alone was never going to prove decisive
against ISIS. This requires a concerted whole-ofgovernment approach including non-military as well as
military tools.
Armed UAVs apparently in Nigeria and almost
certainly in Pakistan mark the beginning of the provision
of such capabilities other than by the US (Israel is not
known to have exported armed UAVs) in both cases,
China is almost certainly the provider. The UAV observed
in Nigeria appeared to be fitted with two kinds of airto-surface weapons that China has been developing for
unmanned platforms.
Underlining the importance of airborne intelligence,
surveillance and reconnaissance, the US has decided to
retain the U-2 ISR aircraft until 2019. Air power remains
a strategic asset with the US and Russia continuing nextgeneration bomber projects during 2014 the US issued
a request for proposals while Russia is thought to have
completed the basic design of its project. Meanwhile the
US is examining future concepts of combat aircraft to
succeed the current fifth-generation programmes while
both the US, Russia, China and others are considering the
optimum mix of manned and unmanned aircraft that will
constitute future force structures. These developments
will be watched by emerging military powers across the
globe.

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