The IT Revolution

since the 1950s

C. L. Liu
National Tsing Hua University

Revolutionists: the first wave

Physicists: semi-conductor, electromagnetic waves, optics

Mathematicians: logic, algebra, combinatorics, number theory,
probability, numerical analysis
Engineers: electrical, mechanical, material

Revolutionists: the second wave

Economists: on-line shopping and banking, long tail theory

Social Scientists: social network, news media, political campaign

Artists: sound, image, video processing

Predictions

Teach a pig to sing

Predictions
Niels Bohr (1885 1962)
- Nobel Prize Winner in Physics in 1922

Prediction is very difficult,

especially if it's about the future.

Off-the-Mark Predictions
Thomas J. Watson, Sr. (1874 1956)
I think there is a world market
for may be five computers.

Off-the-Mark Predictions
Ken Olsen (1926 2011)
There is no reason for any
individual to have a computer
in his home.

Off-the-Mark Predictions
Robert Melancton "Bob" Metcalfe (1946 -)
Wireless computing will flop permanently.

Off-the-Mark Predictions
Paul Krugman (1953 )
The growth of the Internet
will slow drastically
it will become clear that the
Internet's impact on the economy
has been no greater than the fax machine's.

Off-the-Mark Predictions
William Henry Bill Gates III (1955 )
640K ought to be enough
for anybody.

Windows 10: 16~20GB

Off-the-Mark Predictions

Steve Jobs (1955 2011)

"Late? This computer is five
years ahead of its time!".

A Friendly Exchange
Bill Gates: So, how's heaven Steve?
Steve Jobs: Great, it just doesn't have
any walls or fences. So, we don't need
any Windows and Gates.

Bill Gates: I heard a rumor that nobody

is allowed to touch Apple there, and
there are no Jobs in heaven.
Steve Jobs: Oh no, definitely there are
but only no-pay jobs. Therefore, no Bills
in heaven as everything will be provided
free.
God: There is also a Nanni who will come
to discipline you naughty boys.

Auguries of Innocence
To see a world in a grain of sand,
And a heaven in a wild flower,
Hold infinity in the palm of your hand,
And eternity in an hour.
William Blake (1757~1827)

Voir un monde dans un grain de sable,

Et un ciel dans une fleur sauvage,
Tenir l'infini dans la pomme de ta main,
Et l'ternit en une heure.

Eine Welt zu sehn in dem Krnchen Sand,

einen Himmel in wilder Blume,
hlt Unendlichkeit in der off'nen Hand
und die Ewigkeit einer Stunde.

Auguries of Innocence
To see a world in a grain of sand,
And a heaven in a wild flower,
Hold infinity in the palm of your hand,
And eternity in an hour.
William Blake (1757~1827)

Augur, Author, Artist

William Blake (1757~1827)

Auguries of Innocence Predictions

To see a world in a grain of sand,
(Transistors)
And a heaven in a wild flower,
Hold infinity in the palm of your hand,
And eternity in an hour.
William Blake (1757~1827)

Nobel Prizes
The Nobel Prize in Physics 1956

William Bradford Shockley

John Bardeen

Walter Houser Brattain

Nobel Prizes
The Nobel Prize in Physics 2000

Jack S. Kilby

Robert Noyce

Moore's Law
The number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit
doubles approximately every two years.
Intel 4040 (1971): 2,300 transistors
Intel 22-core Xean Broadwell-E5 (2016): 7,200,000,000
transistors

Wirths Law
Wirths Law (Niklaus Wirth) :
Software is slowing faster than hardware is accelerating.
Page's Law (Larry Page) :
Software gets twice as slow every18 months

Turing Award 1984

Stanford Drop-out 1998

Whats in a name?
In Europe,
"Wirth" is pronounced as "Virt" with a rolling "R

That is called by name

In America,
"Wirth" is pronounced as Worth"
That is called by value

A rose by any other name would smell as sweet

Auguries of Innocence Predictions

To see a world in a grain of sand,
And a heaven in a wild flower,
(Cloud Computing)
Hold infinity in the palm of your hand,
And eternity in an hour.
William Blake(1757~1827)

Cloud Computing
Sharing of computer resources and data

Compute - processors

Store - servers

Communicate - networks

There's so much that we share

that it's time we're aware
It's a small world after all

Il y tant que nous partageons

qu'il est temps de se rendre compte
Que le monde est petit, aprs tout

Batch Processing

One Processor, One Job

Monopoly of Computing Resources

Time Sharing

One Processor, Many Jobs

Sharing of Computing Resources

Computing as a Public Utility

Sharing of Computing Power

Interactive Computing
Man Computer Symbiosis,
J. C. R. Licklider, 1960.

Computing as a Public Utility + Interactive Computing

Time Sharing Operating System
Input-Output Devices

Applications

Time Sharing in Large Fast Computers,

Christopher Strachey, 1959.
Time-shared Program Testing,
Herbert Teager and John McCarthy,
1959.

The Compatible Time-Sharing System:

A Programmers Guide,
Fernando J. Corbato et al., 1962.

Turing Award 1990

Interactive Computing
Project MAC at MIT (1963)
Multiple Access Computers (Multics)
Man Machine Cognition

Computing as a Public Utility + Interactive Computing

Time Sharing Operating System
Input-Output Devices

Applications

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder

Leonardo da Vinci
circa 1503-1507
Musee de Louvre

CDC 3200
circa 1964
Computer Museum

Graphics
Ivan E. Sutherland
Sketchpad a man-machine graphical communication
system, p.6.329-6.346, 1964 DAC.

Turing Award 1988

The Mouse that Roars

Doug Englebart

Turing Award 1997

Invented 1963
Patented 1970

Nobel Prizes
The Nobel Prize in Physics 2009

Charles Kao

Willard S. Boyle

George E. Smith

Computing as a Public Utility + Interactive Computing

Time Sharing Operating System
Input-Output Devices

Applications

Contents
Instantaneous
Incremental
Interactive
Individualized

The PLATO System

Massive, Open, Online

Computer Networks 1965

Sharing of Computing Resources

Sharing of Information

US National Medal of Science

Sharing of Communication Paths

Line Switching
Packet Switching

>

>

>

>

Packet Switching
Paul Baran
Distributive Computing Recourses
Routing Algorithms : The Hot Potato Algorithm

US National Medal of Technology and Innovation

TCP / IP Protocols
stack on computer 1

stack on computer 2

Application

Application

Presentation

Presentation

Session

Session

TCP / IP
Transport

Transport

Network

Network

Data Link

Data Link

Physical (network hardware)

Any Computer Could Be Linked To Any Computer

Robert E. Kahn

Vinton Cerf

Turing Award 2004

Any Document Could Be Linked To Any Document

Weaving The WEB, 1991
Sir Timothy John Berners-Lee, OM, KBE

Millennium Technology Prize

URI : Universal Resource Identifiers

HTTP : Hypertext Transfer Protocol
HTML : Hypertext Markup Language

Any Document Could Be Linked To Any Document

As We May Think, Vannevar Bush,
The Atlantic Monthly, 1945.
Memex: A Storage and Retrieval Device

The Hypertext, Ted Nelson,

Proc. World Documentation
Federation Conf.,1965.
Literary Machine, Project Xanadu

Search Engine:
Google, Yahoo, Baidu

Ask, and it will be given to you; seek, and you will find;
knock, and it will be opened to you.
- Mathew 7:7

Search Engine

106 : 1 million
109 : 1 billion
1012 : 1 trillion
1024 : 1 trillion trillion
..
..
.

10100 : 1 googol
1010

100

: 1 googolplex

Search Engine

Search Engine
In a hundred ways,
I search for you - near and far,
Turning to look behind me,

Eureka!

Any Person Could Be Linked To Any Person

The distance between any two persons
in the world is 6 or smaller.
-- Milgram, S. The Small World Problem, Psychology Today, 1967.

The shortest distance between two

points is always under construction.
-- Noelie Altito

Social Networking: Web Pages

Any two web pages are at most 19 clicks away from
one another.
-- Albert Reka, Hawoong Jeong, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi
(1999) Nature 401, 130-131.

It takes 100,000 clicks to consume

the calories of a cup of cappuccino.

Internet Traffic
1992: 10GB per day

1997: 100GB per hour

2002: 100GB per second
2015: 20,000GB per second

The $40,000 DARPA

Red Balloon Grand Challenge

Announced on October 29, 2009

The $40,000 DARPA

Red Balloon Grand Challenge

December 5, 2009

Time Line
Announcement:
October 29, 2009

Balloons Up:
10:00:00 am
December 5, 2009

Winning Time:
6:52:41 pm
December 5, 2009

Any Thing Could Be Linked To Any Thing

Auguries of Innocence Predictions

To see a world in a grain of sand,
And a heaven in a wild flower,
Hold infinity in the palm of your hand,
(Storage Memories)
And eternity in an hour.
William Blake (1757~1827)

Magnetic Core Memory

An Wang

Jay Forrester

Dynamic Random Access Memory - DRAM

Robert H Dennard
US National Medal of Technology and Innovation

Flash Memory

Dawon Kahng

Simon Sze

Fujio Masuoka

In 1960, we paid an engineer $500 a month to

build a $100,000 system.
In 2000, we paid an engineer $100,000 a year to
build a $50 system.

DRAM ASP (2Gb Equiv.)

US$200.00

US$58.00
US$48.10
US$45.50
US$38.42
US$27.39US$25.10
US$11.57

US$5.14 US$4.72 US$5.14 US$2.58 US$1.81 US$1.85 US$1.83 US$1.47

US$1.12 US$1.14

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017F

Source: TrendForce

NAND Flash ASP (16Gb Equiv.)

US$101.60

US$38.72

US$16.64
US$6.24

2005

2006

Source: TrendForce

2007

2008

US$4.24

2009

US$3.60

US$2.50

US$1.47

US$1.20

US$0.88

US$0.64

US$0.45

US$0.31

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016E

2017F

Auguries of Innocence
To see a world in a grain of sand,
And a heaven in a wild flower,
Hold infinity in the palm of your hand,
And eternity in an hour.
(Fast Computers)
William Blake (1757~1827)

Number of instructions
IBM 1410 (1961): 2,200 instructions/sec.

Intel i7 (2008): 92 x 109 instructions/sec.

an instruction : to pick up an ant

1012 insturctions : will pick up 1 million kilograms of ants

Capabilities and limitations of a digital computer

Capabilities and limitations of a digital computer

1936 (10 years before the invention of

digital computers)
Alonzo Church and Alan Turing studied
the question :
What is an instruction obeying machine
capable of doing?

Computability

Computable

Impossible is a word found only

in the dictionary of fools.
-- Napolean Boneparte

Non-Computable

Turing Computability
Turing-Computability
1

1
0 1

Alan M. Turing

Practical Computability

Practically
Computable

Practically
Non-Computable

Algorithmic Complexity

Stephen A. Cook,
Turing Award 1982

Richard M. Karp,
Turing Award 1985

Cryptography
Encryption:
a x
b t
c d
d j

Decryption:
x a
t b
d c
j d

bad txj

txj bad

Encryption:
1234 3421

Decryption:
1234 4312

abcd cdab
book kobo

cdab abcd
kobo book

Public Key Encryption

Given encryption scheme:
practically non-computable to decrypt

Customer 1

Customer 2

Customer 3

Bank

Public Key Encryption

Martin Hellman

Whitfield Diffie

Turing Award 2015

Public Key Encryption

Ronald Linn Rivest

Adi Shamir

Turing Award 2002

Leonard Adleman

Auguries of Innocence Predictions

To see a world in a grain of sand,
And a heaven in a wild flower,
Hold infinity in the palm of your hand,
And eternity in an hour.
William Blake (1757~1827)

3.5 x 1015 SiO2 molecules in a grain of sand,

50 x 109 devices connected together,
Hold 57.6 x 106 pages in the palm of your hand,
And 331 x 1012 instruction in an hour.

Revolutionists: the new wave

Aux armes, citoyens!

Formez vos bataillons
Marchons, marchons!
Qu'un sang impur
Abreuve nos sillons!
(silicon?)