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Introduction
The British handed over to free India, an economy full of distortions
and imbalances. reeling under the burden of stagnation, in consequence of
the perpetuation of larg,ely pre-capitalist modes of production both in
industry and agriculture and the colonial pattern of foreign trade.
Independent India, was, thus faced with proble~nswhich were fonnidable
in nature and gigantic in magnitude. The country was almost in the grip of
econo~nic stagnation, widespread
poverty,
unemployment
and the
to
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economic growth had to achieve within a very short span of time, the
degree of economic pwgress which the then developed countries of the
world took a century or nnore to achieve under Inore favourable conditions.
It was under these co~npellingforces that India formulated a number of
policies for quick economic development and econoinic growth.
At the timc of the transfer of power foreign capital had substantial
control over India's rejources and markets. I'he extractive and plantation
industries, proccssing for export. intcmational trade and ancillary serviccs
were allnost fully controlled by the foreign 'Managing Agents' brought up
by the British capital tro~nthe nineteenth century onwards. For the Nehru
government it was nolt a priority to evolve and strengthen an indigenous
technological and industrial base for India. No wonder, even in 1954-55,
on the eve of the s e c o ~ ~five
d year plan, two-fifths of the major companies
with a paid-up capital of Rs. 50 lakhs and above were directly controlled
by the 17 top ~nanagi~lg
agencies. The foreign managing agencies could
receive a percentage of profits. as commission. in addition to the interest
that they received on loans advanced to the Indian companies. Managing
agents who wcre to hi; represented on the board of directors of a company
were the rcal decision makers. In the fifiies, while the Indian National
Congress adoptcd 'soc,ialism' and sclf-reliance as its econoinic programme,
according to an esti111at.e.55 top directors tiom the managing agencies
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Foreign capital
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capitalist countries including thc USA and experts from soviet Union. The
decision to launch key arid basic industries as well as infrastructure in the
public sector had taken the interests of domestic capital also into
consideration. Thus infrastructure-development which naturally yields very
little profit in the public sector provided the private sector, both foreign and
native, necessary anti favourable condition for participating in the
economic develop~nentpl:ogramme.
As l'ar as the Nehru-Mahalanobis strategy of heavy industrialisation
was concerned, it ignored the required healthy relationship between
industry and agriculture. If the import-substitution industrialization was to
result in an all-round increase in domestic production and reduction in
imports, a corresponding developlnent of the home market was inevitable.
In a country where more than 70 per cent of the population depend on
agriculture, expansion of the home market and increase in the purchasing
power of the masses were imperative. And this was directly related to a
basic restructuring in land relations. That did not happen. More over the
key and basic industries as well as infra structural facilities built up by the
public sector with capit.al:ist 'aid' and foreign technology were used for the
manufacture of consumer durables and luxury items catering to the
consumerist longings of the upper strata of society. In India, the upper
strata of the population which was much larger than the total population o f
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industries that were built up as part of IS1 during the fifties and sixties as
tariff fa~tories".~
Concentrated in already existing urban centres and based on foreign
capital and technology, industries were in practice, never meant for the
broad masses of people in the country-side. Thus IS1 which was suggested
by capitalist experts as a substituie for lack of foreign exchange became the
cause for dependence on foreign exchange in the form of profits, royalties,
dividends, technical fees etc. arising from imports of capital and
technology. and in thr: form of out payments resulting from heavy foodimports. In brief. the Nchruvian strategy of IS1 was leading the country to
unprecedcntcd misery for the majority of the people, growing regional
inequalities, worsening balance of payments deficits, and deepening
dependence on foreigners.
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It could penetrate
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Ministries
of Government
of
India
(GOI), Planning
Commission, RBI, etc. This enablcd the World Bank and other neocolonial
institutions to elicit the relevant information from lndia needed for their
policy
formulation."
In fact, ever since the transfer of power in 1947, the Government o f
lndia (G01) led by Nehl-u sought the assistance of WI3 and other US-led
institutions to dole out lheir so called "expert" opinion on matters
concerning India's future clevelopment. As a result, periodic inspections
by WB officials to India hecame a regular feature during these years.
Nehru was committed to socialisin and 'self-reliance'. On the eve
of the creation of the Aid lndia Consortiurn, the WB succeeded in
establishing it5 permanent Resident Mission in New Delhi in 1957 which
could undermine Nehruvian self-rel~ance. Following this, in the First Five
Year Plan I0 percent of the plan outlay. came froin foreign aid; during the
second plan this component rose to more than 30 per cent of the total plan
outlay. Naturally. 1JS capitalism stood as the major donor contributing
almost 55 per cent of the total external 'assistance'.
Soviet aid during the second plan was only 5.4 per cent of the total aid.
This was devoted to the sphere of hcavy machinery. All of India's public
sector steel plants and several industries were set up with foreign capital
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and technology. It is estimated that more than 90 per cent of the aggregate
foreign 'aid' used up by hehru's so called 'socialist plan' was from US-led
capitalist sources including the WB.
In 1965, the
t\co
largest family groups the Tata and the Birla. owned 20%
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By the beginning, of the 1960s, when Second Five Year Plan was
coming to a closc and the third plan was to begin the counter confronted by
acute problems such as food scarcity, balance of payments crisis, etc., the
Nehru government which could not solve these issues, was forced to
approach Western funding agencies again. Consequently, at the request of
GOI, the WB in 1960 sent another "high-level mission" to India. This
~nissionconsisting of Oliver Franks from Britain. Hermann Abs from
Germany and Allan Sproul from the USA"
like New Yorh. 1 ondon. 1)usseldorf and Tokyo in 1961 itself as part of the
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doubling of the external debt within a span of five years. Thus external debt
which stood at Rs. 1073 crores in 1961 rose to Rs. 2341 crores in 1 9 6 5 ' ~ .
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Devaluation of Rupee
Despite the huge foreign aid, while the third plan was dragging on
account of acute resource crunch, as a testimony to India's growing
dependence on "aid-givers" and the latter's increasing capacity to influence
India's policy-making, in 1965 the WB sent another large economic
mission headed by Bernard Bell. The mission produced a comprehensive
report, known as the Bell ]Mission Report, which proclaimed the end of IS1
and heralded the so called export-orientation industrialisation (EOI)
strategy in India. Through the Bell Report, the WB and other consortium
members became Inore critical of the direction of Indian economic policy.
For instance. among orher things, the Bell Report opined. "There is no
particular evidence that the licensing system has in fact served any positive
economic purpose. There is little doubt, however, that it has prevented
efficient enterprises from expanding, that it has imposed restraints upon the
achievement of econson~ies of scale, and it delayed and hampered
investment and production activity. It has, like the irnport control system,
protected and preserve'd inefficiency by, in effect, allocating market shares
and restraining the g~:owth of more efficient enterprises".'4
The Bell
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=:
Rs. 4.75 to $1
Rs. 7.50 as a result of this act) in June 1966. Frequent devaluation of the
rupee, both oflicially declared and undeclared, has beer1 one of the most
effective methods adopted by capitalists to increase their profits. The crisis
in the ruling party and the consequent package of policies did not fulfil the
WB specifications. Infuriated by this, the US temporarily suspended the
entire package including 1'L 480 imports into India.
Under American
pressure the GO1 was forced to declare a plan holiday for three years from
1966 to 1969. This abrupt halt of the entire planning process exposed once
again the limitation ol'the Indian development path. The government led
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by Indira Gandhi could revive the five year planning process only in 1969
after getting the green signal from the WB and other consortium members.
To appease the donors the GO1 had to carry out a series of measures as
recommended by the Bell Report including the establishment of the
Foreign Investment Board in 1968 to expedite the close integration of
Indian economy with foreign capital.
Since 1951 India had completed nine Five Year Plans.
And is
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21,
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agriculture should be assigned top priority. Third plan accordingly gave top
priority to agriculturt:. But it also laid adequate emphasis on the
development of basic industries, which were vitally necessary for rapid
economic developrnent of the country. However, because of India's war with
China in 1962 and with Pakistan in 1965, the emphasis of the Third Plan was
later shiHed tio~necono~nicdevelopment to defence development.
The original draft outline of the fourth plan prepared in 1966 under
the stewardship of' Ashok Mehta had to be abandoned on account of the
pressure exerted on tht: economy by two years of drought, devaluation of
the Rupec and intlationar:~recession. Instead three Annual Plans (1966-69)
euphemistically described as "plan holiday" were implemented. India
learned a hitter lesson during lndo-Pakistan war when its so-called allies
refused t o supply esse~ltialequipment and raw materials for its economic
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development. The Fourth plan set before itself the two principal objectives,
growth with stability ;and progressive achievement of self reliance. The
fourth plan aimed at an average 5.5% rate of growth in the national income
and the provision of national minimum for the weaker sections of the
con~munity-came to bt: known as the objectives of growth with justice and
'garibi-hatao' (removal of-poverty).
l'hc Fifth Plan (1974-79) was introduced at the time when the
country was reeling under a veritable economic crisis arising out of a runaway inflation, fuelled by the hike in oil prices since September 1973 and
failure of the Government's take over of the wholesale trade in wheat. But the
Indian planners were concerned with the problem of garibi-hatao (removal of
poverty) and growth with social justice. The original approach paper of the
fifth plan preparcd under. C. Subrarnaniam in 1972 emphasised that "the main
causes of abject poverty were open unemployment, under-employment and
low resource base of very large number of producers in agriculture and service
sectors". Thc elimination of poverty could not be attained simply by
acceleration i n the rate of' growth of the economy alone. But the strategy
should be to launch a dil-ec:t attack on the problems of unemployment, under
e~nployrnentand massive level of poverty. But this approach was eventually
abandoned ar~dthe final draft of the fifth plan prepared and launched by
D.P. Dhar proposed to achieve the two main objectives viz.. removal of
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The Secenth Five year plan (1985-90) was introduced in April 1985,
after the co~lntryhad enjoyed a reasonable rate of economic growth during
the sixth plan. The Seventh Plan sought to emphasise policies and
programmes which would accelerate the growth in food grains production,
increase employment cbpportunities and raise productivity- all these three
immediate objectives were regarded central to the achievement of long
term goals determined as far back as the first plan itself.
The approach p a p a of the Eighth Five Year Plan was approved in
September 1989 and was to be introduced in April 1990. However there
were a series of changes in the Government at the centre, necessitating
constant reconstitution of the Planning Commission and preparation of a
series of versions of the approach to the eighth plan. Finally, the fourth
version of the eighth plan 1992-97 was approved at a time the country was
going through a severe economic crisis caused by the balance of payment
crisis, rising debt burden. ever -widening budget deficits, ~nountinginflation
and recession in industry. The Narasimha Rao Government initiated the
process of fiscal refonns a!; also of economic reforms with a view to provide a
new dynamism to the economy. The Eighth Plan (1992-97) reflected these
changes in its attempt to accelerate economic growth and improve the
quality of life of the comrnon man.
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Plan Outlaysllnvestments
~~
(Rs. Crores)
~-
Total
Proposed
Plan Outlay
--
1- (2+3)
First Plan(195 1-56)
~~~
-~
Second Plan(1956-6 I )
~hird
Plan( 196 1-66)
Total Private
Sector
Outlay
I
3,870
(1 00.0)
7,900
(100.0)
1 1,600
(100.0)
24,880
(1 00.0)
53,410
( 1 00.0)
1,58,710
(100.0)
:3,48,150
(100.0)
8,71,000
(100.0)
2
1,800
(46.5)
3,100
(39.2)
4,100
(35.3)
8,980
(36.1)
16.160
(80.3)
61,210
(38.6)
1,68,150
(48.3)
4,37,000
(50.2)
Source: VLII.IOII.\
/.lve Year I'lan Docu~~?i,~lr.v
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Total
Proposed
Public sector
outlay
3
2,070
(53.5)
4,800
(60.8)
7,500
(64.7)
15,900
(63.9)
37.250
(69.7)
97,500
( 6 1.4)
1,80,000
(5 1.7)
4,34,100
(49.8)
Actual
Public
sector
outlay
4
1,960
4,600
8,500
15,900
39,430
1,09,290
2,18,730
4,95,670
The total oi~tlayi n the First Plan was quite modest and it was more
than doubled during the Second Plan reflecting the tremendous sense of
confidence which the planners acquired afier the success of the First Plan. But
because of resource constraints and specially due to severe foreign exchange
shortage, the Third Plan outlay was only about 5 per cent more than that of
the Second Plan. From the Third Plan onwards, however, the increase in the
total outlay was over 100 per cent compared to the previous plans and the Sixth
Plan outlay in money terms was indeed Inore than 200 per cent of the outlay
of the Fifth Plan. This was true for the Seventh and Eighth Plans. The Plan
outlays are obviously expressed in money terms at different price levels
and, therefore, they reflect partly the inflationary rise in prices and partly
the increased effort in enhancing development programmes. Even if we
deflate the monetary in'velstment to allow for rise in prices, the real outlay
during the last three plans was really huge.
This huge increa:se in total outlay (or investment) was the result o f
the confidence of thc Planning Co~nrnissionthat the country could absorb
increasingly larger doses of investment and that the tempo of econornic
growth in the country warranted such a huge escalation of investment.
The Govemmcnt has also been successful in raising the rate of domestic
savings and mobilise additional resources from foreign countries and
institutions. To supplement these two sources, the Government regularly
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Seventh Plan there was great refinement of the sectors of development. The
distribution of public sector outlay on major heads clearly reflects the
Commission's priorities of development in the different Plans.
Table 3.2
Sectoral Outlays during the Plans
(Rs. Crores)
-~
Agriculture
Industry
Power
irrigation
Communi
--
First Plan
Second
Plan
Third
plan
Fourth
Plan
Fifth Plan
(1 974-79)
Actuals
Sixth
Plan
Seventh
Plan
Eighth
Plan
600
260
1 4 : 1 3 )
(31)
(10)
1,250
3.810
8,640
(22)
2,450
(15)
7,400
26,130
(24)
(22.0)
120
(6)
1,080
(24)
1,970
(23)
3,630
(23)
9,580
(26)
16,950
((28.2)
(13.4)
(9.7)
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anti Rs. 102.730 crores by the k;ighth Plan. Likewise, allocation on power,
industries, transport and communications had increased considerably but
the most significant increase was on industries-from Rs. 102 crores to over
Rs. 5 1,100 crores.
Power Programmes
The allocation on power development was unfortunately low during
the First Four Plans- between 10 to 15 percent of the total outlay. The low
priority given to power development was sought to be justified at that time,
on the ground that the industries had not come up so fast and that progress
in rural clectrification and in the use of electric power in the railway
transport system was inadequate and did not need much investment. This
proved to be a wrong judgment on the part of the planners. With rapid
industrialisation and extensive demand for power both in rural and urban
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areas, the country reeling under severe power shortages and the country's
production ef't'ort has been severel? curtailed by load shedding almost in all
parts of the country. It vvari only in the Seventh Plan that the allocation on
power was raised rather steeply to 28.2 percent of the total outlay.
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production and the prict: level. In practice, however nothing special was
done to the tiny and the small sector.
The 1:ourth Plan, when it was introduced after a gap of three years,
was an ambitious plan as it aimed at an annual growth rate of 5.5 per cent
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(as against an average of 3.5 per cent during the previous plans) to attain
self-reliance and the provision of a national minimum. The first two years
of the Fourth Plan were q ~ ~ ipromising,
te
with record hodgrains production
and equally rising indu'strial production. But next three years of the Plan
proved a great disappointment with successive failure of monsoons, decline
in foodgrains production, failure on the industrial front due to power
breakdowns and load shedding, transport bottlenecks, industrial unrest, etc.
Above all, the price situation deteriorated to crisis proportions and the
whole of 1970 was indeed, a difficult year. The rapid rise in prices from the
middle of 1972 completel:y upset the cost calculations of the Fourth Plan
development projects. Above all. the country had to cope up with huge
influx of refugees from Bangladesh and the Indo-Pakistan war of 1971.
The I:ourth Plan. in other words, failed after the mid-term.
The Fifth Plari was in the throes of a serious econornic crisis in the
fonn of a run-away inflation. Thc Fifth Plan cost calculations based on
1971-72 prices proved to bc co~nplctelywrong and the original public sector
outlay of [is. 37.500 crores had to be revised upwards to a little over Rs. 39,
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This was an unwise step since it made the constitution and working
of the Planning Commission as well as the Plan formulation change with
the assumption of every Government at the Centre. So much so, with the
coalition governments csonling to power at the Centre, the formulation of
five year plans has become difficult and often a cruel joke. No body seems
to be seriously concerned with the formulation of the Five Year Plans.
The Sixth Plan, for instance, was originally introduced by the Janata
Party for the period 1978-.83but later it was replaced by a new Sixth Plan
for the period 1980-85 following the assumption to power of a new
government. During this period the Indian economy made an all-round
progress and most of the targets fixed by the Planning Commission were
realised, though during the last year of the Plan (1984-85) many parts of
the country faced severe famine conditions and the agricultural output was
less than the record clutput of the previous year. Broadly, however, the
Sixth Plan could be taken as a success.
The Scvcnth Five: Year Plan (1985-90) attempted to accelerate the
growth in foodgrains production increase in employment opportunities and
raise productivity. In other words, the focus of the Seventh Plan was on
food, work and prodluctivity. The Seventh Plan was heralded as a great
success since thc Indian economy recorded 6% per cent rate of economic
growth during this plan against the targeted 5 per cent. The decade of the
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The [nost tiiSficult part of planning in India and for the matter, in
any country ot' the wo~rld,is the mobilisation of financial resources. It is
easy to plan and fix targets for various priority sectors of the economy but
it is difficult to find the necessary finances to implement the planned
prqiects. 'l'he (iovernmenl of India taxes the public and uses the proceeds
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(b)
(c)
deficit financing
Domestic budgetary resources are the funds raised by the
(a)
surplus from current revenues that is, funds of current revenues over
current expenditure,
(b)
(c)
(d)
countries, loans from international institutions such as the IMF, the World
Bank and the IDA, etc.
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Table 3.3
Sources of Plan Finance: First Eight Plans
--
Budgetary
Resources
-
First
Plan 100
Amount
% (Rs.
Crores)
Amount
% (Rs.
Crores)
1.440
73
190
Second
Plan 100
External
Assistance
Plan 100
2,560
56
1,090
5,090
59
2,390
. -~
--
Plan 100
12,010
--
Fifth
plan 100
-
I0
7
.
Third
'
28
74
2,090
13
82
5,830
15
78
8,530
---.
32.1 20
24
-~
Sixth
Plan 100
86,610
-
Seventh
plan 1 0
____1_~
1,34, i 90
16,120
Eighth
Plan 100
3.32.100
--
19,230
-
-.
-.
Table 3.3 indicates the share of the three sources of plan finance in
all the five year plans. The figures mentioned under each Plan are actual
and not the originally intended or planned amounts. Table 3 shows clearly
that of the three sources of Plan finance, the most important were the
domestic budgetarj resources. For instance, they accounted for 73 percent
of the total funds raised during the First Plan. How ever, they came down
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to 56 and 59 per cent during Second and Third Plans respectively. This
reduction was due to the Government's attempt to rely increasingly on the
other two sources of finance. From the Fourth Plan onwards, how ever,
budgetary resources have again become the dominant source of Plan
finance- as much as 86 per cent in the Eighth plan.
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financial
13 per cent during the Third Plan. Extemal assistance was gradually
reduced to 5 percent during the Eighth Plan.
At the same time, the Government was fully alive to the adverse
consequence of deficit financing in the form of pressure on prices. Even
though deficit financing vuat; kept at 13 per cent during Third and Fourth
Plans, it was reduced to 3 per cent in the fifth Plan, but rose sharply to 14
per cent in the Sixth plan (as against the original estimate of 5 per cent) and
16 per cent during the seventh plan.
to rely increasingly
on
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The traditional view has always been that current revenue should be
used for meeting current expenditure. However, as far back as 1950-51, the
Planning Commission accepted the recommendation of the Taxation
Enquiry Commission Chaired by V.T. Krishnamachari that the current
revenue of the Government could and should be used partly to finance
economic development. The idea was to restrict current expenditure, create
a surplus from current rt:venue and use the same for financing economic
development. In theory this was a wise step and the planning Commission
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Table 3.4
Relative Significance of the Components of Domestic Budgetary
Resources in Various Plans % of Total plan Resources
--
Fourth
Fifth
Sixth
Plan
Plan
Plan
74
82
78
13
25
40
28
41
34
27
37
30
Domestic
Budgetary
Resources of
which
59
1
I
current
revenues
from public
enterprises
(c) Domestic
private savings
(d ) Additional
resource
mobilisation
(ARM)
13
in the Second Plan, profits of public enterprises had risen to 9 per cent in
the Forth Plan and nearly .5 per cent in the Sixth Plan. As a matter of fact,
the contribution from public enterprises has always been much less than
what was originally planned for. Many of the Central Government
enterprises have been running at losses and even the contributions of such
department undertakings as the railways and posts and telegraphs have
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been minimal. I he bright stops have been the Reserve Bank of India and
other banking and financial institutions and some commercial enterprises
like Indian Oil Corporation, which have been yielding regular profits to the
Government. As far as State enterprises were concerned, the less said the
better. The State Electricity Boards (SEBs) and the State Road Transport
Corporations (SKTCs) which are the two major state enterprises have been
running at loss throughout the planning period. The loss of SEBs are
around Rs. 1,5000 crores per year and the loss of SRTCs are around Rs.200
crores per year. Further, states incurred an annual loss of Rs.700-1000
crores on commercial irrigation. In spite of their poor record, the planners
vainly expect increasingly larger contributions from the public sector
enterprises in every Plan.
Domestic Private Savings
Our experience from market borrowings and small savings- the two
components of domestic private savings in the country, in the last six plans
has been good. In fact these two sources have come to play an important
role in raising finances for development. During the First Plan, domestic
private savings contributed more than one-third of the aggregate resources,
but in the next two plans, lheir importance was reduced marginally, as the
Planners put more faith in external aid and deficit financing. In the Forth Plan,
the Government was so concerned about self-reliance and the need to reduce
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dependence on foreign aid that it went in for a massive effort to raise financial
resources within the country. It may be observed that during the Fourth Plan,
domestic private savings accounted for 40 per cent of the total financial
requirements. In the Sixth I'lan, the original estimate was that the domestic
private savings should contribute
(b)
With rise in national and per capita incomes, the ability and
willingness to save among all sections of the people particularly the
middle classes has been increasing and the Government has also
been encouraging this tendency to save through appropriate tax
incentives (as tor example, interest income and dividend income is
exempted from income -tax up to the value of Rs. 15,000).
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Government and it was hoped that public opposition would restrain the
Government from raising additional resources by this method in the future.
However the Government has continued to use this method till now.
As dependence on foreign assistance and deficit financing have
serious adverse conseqilerlces for the country, the Government has been
relying increasingly on domestic budgetary resources. All the different
constituents of domestic resources. particularly additional taxation, market
borrowings and small savings and contribution from public enterprises
have their o w importance. To the extent the domestic resources are used
to meet Plan requirements, our dependence on deficit financing and foreign
assistance will be reduced.
Review of 50 Years of Planning in India
From what we have described above, it may be inferred that most of
India's Five Year Plans dld not succeed in producing the anticipated
results. When we say that a particular plan did not succeed, it only means
that the targets fixed during a given Plan were not achieved fully. But we
should remember that with every five year Plan, India could start at a higher
level of growth and development. We shall now take a birds eye view of the
concrete achievements of the development plans between 1951 and 1997.
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1.
Year
1970-71
~
~~
Index
Index
--
1980-8 1
1,10,690
1990-91
1,86,450
465
2,220
197
639
2,760
245
~p
1996-97
~p
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From table 3.5, we find that national income rose iLom Rs. 40,450
crores at the beginning of the First Plan to Rs. 2,58,470 crores at constant
prices at the end of the Eighth Plan. The index of NNP at constant prices
had risen from 1 00 to 639, i.e., by nearly 6.4 times.
On the other hand:, the per capita income in real terms had, however,
increased at much lower rate indicating that part of the increase in real
national income had been eaten up by the increase in population. Table 5
shows that per capita income at 1980-81 prices had risen from Rs.1,130 to
Rs. 2, 760 between 1951 and 1997. While national income had risen from
100 to 639 between 1951 and 1997 per capita income had risen from 100 to
245 only during the same period.
Between 1950-51 and 1996-97, the growth process of the Indian
economy can be divided into two broad periods: (a) 1950-51 to 1980-81,
and (b) 1980-81 to 1956-97. During the first period, Indian economy
increased at an annual average growth rate of 3.4 per cent in NNP and 1.2
per cent in per capita NNP (contemptuously called the Hindu rate of
growth by Prof. Kaj Krishria) Horn ever, during the second period, (i.e.,
1981 and 1997) the Indian economy crossed the barrier of the Hindu rate of
growth and showed an average rate of growth rate of 5.3 per cent in NNP
and 3.2 per cent in per capita income.
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101
Table 3.6
Growth Performance in the Five Year Plans
I-1
F h Pan 1 9 7 - 7 )
..
';I
5.0
:;"
6.0
--
From 'Table 3.6, it i s clear that the actual growth rates have been
fluctuating up to the Fourth Plan between 2.8 to 4.3 per cent. Besides, the
actual growth rate was les:j than the target fiom the Second Plan onwards
and particularly during the h i r d and Fourth Plans. But from the Fifth Plan
onwards, there has been a steady iinprove~nentin GDP growth from 4.8 per
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cent per annum during the Fifth Plan to 6.8 per cent during the Eighth Plan.
This was indeed a healthy development.
2.
Progress in Agriculture
During the last 50 years, the Government had spent, on an average,
23 to 24 per cent of the Plan outlay in each of the Five Year Plans on the
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Table 3.7
Progress in the Use of Agricultural Inputs Since 1950-51
~
Programme
1950-51
1970-71
1996-97
-.
Consumption of chernical
-
0.7
2.2
14.3
Nil
15.4
76.4
Nil
5.0
33.4
Nil
6.5
Programme(m.hectares)
-
of which.
Paddy (rn.hectares)
.---~
Wheat (m.hectares)
-
22.6
38.0
23.7
80.7
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Table 3.8
Agricultural Production under Five Year Plans (1951 to 1997)
-7I
I
I
Increase(%)
1950-51
1970-71
1996-97
between
1951and 1997
~.Foodgrains
51
108
199
290
(m.tonnes)
~-
Rice(m.tonnes)
21
.-
42
82
24
69
10
24
380
126
278
388
14
367
290
Wheat(m.tonnes)
7
.-
Oil seeds
886
(m.tonnes)
--
-.
Sugarcane
57
(m. tonnes of gur)
~~-Cotton (m. bales)
.)
-~
-.
--
(m.bales)
3
-~
Potatoes (m.tonnes)
11
267
24
1,100
-- .---
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every crop. production had increased by three or four times. Of course, the
most spectacular increase was in wheat and potatoes. All this has been
made possible because of the success in planning. Of course, there have
been many shortcomings, :such as failure to fulfil the targets of production
in many crops. shortfalls in the production of pulses and oilseeds in the
face of continuous rise in demand for them and year --to-year fluctuations
in the production of commercial crops such as sugarcane cotton and jute.
3.
Progress in lndustrj
Table 3.9 gives the progress in some basic industries only which is
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Table 3.9
Progress of industrial Production (Selected industries)
.
1950-51
1970-71
1996-97
32
76
308
32
66
0.02
12
4.Cement (m.tonnes)
14
74
5. Finished steel(m.tonr~es)
23
169
524
0.3
33
56
395
1.Coal (m.tonnes)
-~
3.Fertilisei-s (m.tonnes)
-
7.Petroleurn
..
--
8. Electricity(billion kwh)
--..
--
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1950-51
1970-71
1996-97
144
167
187
5.0
7.4
14.6
3.2
4.5
9.2
362
40 1
657
47
40
72
II
29
14
16
29
56
395
~.
2. Sugar (kgs)
-~
--
---~
6. Eggs (number)
-7. Cloth (metres)
-
---
--
These figures in column- I relate to the year 1955-56,that is, the last year of
the First Plan.
Source: Governmrt~~
~~firrc/ru,
l<c(,'nomicSurvey, 1998.99.
Table 3.10 shows that, between 1951 and 1997 per capita consumption
of foodgrains (i.c.. cereals ant1 pulse) had increased considerably-between a
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modest 30 per cent in the case of cereals and pluses to nearly 200 per cent in
the case of sugar. 500 per cent increase in the case of eggs and 2300 per cent
increase in the consumption of domestic electric power. The increase in per
capita consunlption of essential consumer goods would have been much
greater if population had not risen from 361 million to an estimated 948
million between 195 1 and 1997 or if population growth had been
effectively controlled. It is also interesting to observe that despite increase
in per capita consumption of essential consumer goods, savings as a
proportion of GLIP had increased from 10.4 per cent in 1950-5 1 to 26.1 per
cent in 1996-97.
4.
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6.
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7.
3 1 per cent to 84 per cent between 1951 and in proved from 31 lakhs to
4 10 lakhs between i 95 1 artd 1997 and as a proportion of the population in
the relevant age-group ( 1 1 to 14). it improved from 13 to 68 per cent.
Similarly, at the secondary level, total enrolment improved from 12 lakhs
to 249 lakhs between 1951 and 1997 and as a proportion of the population
in the age group (14 to 17) it improved from 5.3 per cent to 32.4 per cent.
Total number of students enrolled in colleges and Universities increased
from 3.6 lakhs to 43 lakhs between 1951 and 1997. Such a huge expansion
of the educational system is a major achievement of the planing era.I7
Reviewing the overall achievements of planning in India, Sixth Plan
(1978-83) stated: "it is a cause of legitimate national pride that over this
period a stagnant and dependent economy has been modemised and made
more self-reliant. Moderate rate of growth of per capita income has been
maintained despite the growth of population". A sinlilar opinion was
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Indian Experience:
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i.
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this proportion had corne down to 39 per cent. Using a slightly modified
methodology. the Planning Commission estimated that in 1993-94, only
36 per cent ot the population lived below the poverty line. In absolute
terms, between 1973-74 and 1993-94, the total number of the poor remained
around 320 million. In this connection, Professor P.R. Hrahmananda writes:
"Instead of attacking the problem of poverty directly through wage -goods
model, the authorities preferred to initiate a number of anti poverty and
public distribution measures, which were simply in the nature of firefighting exercise with large ~eakage's".'~
In other words, all throughout, India had followed a blood
transfusion approach which provided only temporary relief. It would have
been much better if India had followed a blood generation approach by
emphasising suitable employment creation.
ii.
growth rather than on employment generation and the adoption of capitalintensive production methods instead of labour intensive methods. Despite
the implementation of eight five year plans, unemployment has been on
the increase. According to the Planning Commission, the backlog of the
unemployed pcrsons was 5.3 million at the end of the First Plan and 7.5
million at the end of the Eighth Plan. The combined incidence of
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concluded, from their study in 1971 that the condition of the bottom 20 per
cent of the population had definitely deteriorated and for the next higher
20 per cent of the population had remained more or less stagnant. There
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goods rose at a much greater rate than the prices of luxuries and semiluxuries. Between 1990-91 and 1996-97, the general price index (198081+100) moved up by '72 per cent but the index of foodgrains prices and
like general consumer goods matches, kerosene, cloth, vegetables etc., also
moved at a faster rate vis-a-vis articles consumed by the upper classes. In
a socialist economy, fiiilure to control the prices of food and essential
consumer goods is tht: denial of economic justice to the masses. The
situation has been worsening over the years.
iv.
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has increased in India during the last 50 years, even though Jawaharlal
Nehru had stated categorically: -'Monopoly is the enemy of socialism". To
reduce concentration of economic power and wealth in the hands of a few,
the Government adopted fiscal measures like taxation, of wealth and
property, articles of luxurious consumption and prov~sionof subsidies on
necessaries. Although tiscal measures had a positive role to play, proper
tax rate structure remained only on paper and became the source of black
money. Similarly, a system of heavy taxation on articles of luxurious
consumption and provision of subsidies on necessaries was tried for many
years as a part of a programme of social justice but without any result.
iv.
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the Indian people: they are the achievement of full employment, the
eradication of poverty and the creation of more equal society."
'
4
The Nehru and others did not take note of this remains an enigma even to day. That
Nehru did not what to compromise as the political sovereigrity of liidia is beyond
question; but he failed to see through the capitalist strategy was tragic to Indian
Democracy.
In
II
''
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I3
14
IS
16
(American and British pressure against lndia during Indo-Pakistan conflict in 1965)
and the undue pressure of international financial institutions (the pressure of IMF to
devalue the rupee in 1966).
17
18
I9
Other References
I. Five Year Plan Documents 1-8, Planning Commission, Government of lndia, New
Delhi
2. Robert E. L-l l.ucas and Gustav F Papanek (1988), The Indian Economy Recent
Developnrent and Future .Prospects, Oxford University Press.
3. Lewis John P. Indian Polific,dEconomy, Delhi, Oxford Universitj Press (1997)
4. Uppal J.S.. 11idrunEc<~nonzic
Plunning, Macmillan India Limited, Delhi (1984)
5. Bardhan Pranab, The Poiiti~:alEconomy of Development in India, Delhi, Oxford
University Press (1998)
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